Mathematician 4833
Sunday August 18th

5 Previews 
0 Account Bet
 


No Account Bet



Favourite Bet

Southwell 3.20 - ART DESIGN 7/4-13/8
 
Tramore 4.03 - TULLYVEERY LAD 9/4

£3 Win Bet on each horse

£4.00 Win Double on both







Final Deliberations  

Another quiet Sunday this week
Next week Sunday is far busier
Middle leg of the bank holiday

York's Ebor Festival Wednesday
Plan next week is to peak there
With big messages till Monday
So I'm going to drop tomorrow



No Monday Message

Will be doing some ante post races
Ebor statistics are in FBA later on

 
5 Previews

Really not sure of the best bet
Feel all the selections have merit
Some price are on the short side


Southwell 3.20

ART DESIGN 7/4-13/8

Win Bet

I am thinking each way myself
Not many will enjoy that much

Could go with a multiple bet
Each way doubles and trebles
On any of the following horses

Southwell 3.20 - Art Design 7/4
Tramore 4.03 - Tullyveery Lad 9/4
Pontefract 4.45 - Marine Wave 6/1 

There are other options as well
Don't want to get bogged down
Choosing the wrong selections
As I like all of the five previews

Not too sure of my favourite bet  
But I prefer the overall message
To just guessing the best option
Going with two win bet selections
But combining them as follows
 
Southwell 3.20 - Art Design 7/4-13/8
 
Tramore 4.03 Tullyveery Lad  9/4

£3 Win Bet on each horse

£4.00 Win Double on both








Yesterday's Summary 

A healthy and accurate message
We got all those bigger calls right
Global Esteem an account winner
Looked beat just scraped home
You could see that as a little lucky
But he went off much too quickly
Really looked like a suicidal gallop
The reason he won was his fitness
That's what helped him fight back
And if he had been ridden normally
He would have won many lengths
Stressful watch at least he won it
All the other account bet options
Did very well none of them losers
Heavenly Power a decent winner
Price clipped given  the non runner
Got the Great St Wilfrid spot on
Betting the 1nd 2nd placed horses
Not in the order we really wanted
But we doubled our money on it
Chaos Control dead heated in 3rd
Did enough to avoid losing stakes
One or two smaller bets got beat
One or two other bets broke level
But on all of the strongest business
We never put a foot wrong all day
Accurate and enjoyable message
The biggest reason that happened
Had to throw Friday under the bus
Did not give it the push it required
Just didn't have enough energy to
Backing off helped me Saturday
And I feel the results showed that
The stronger bets were excellent
The account runs extended again






Preview Selections
  
Southwell 3.20
Art Design 7/4-13/8 WON
Win Bet
 
Tramore 4.03
Tullyveery Lad  9/4 Lost
Win Bet
 
Pontefract 4.45
Marine Wave 6/1 WON
Each Way

Pontefract 5.15
£8.50 Win Bet Godsend 7/4-13/8 Lost
£1.50 Win Bet The Grand Visir 11/2-6/1 Lost

Pontefract 6.15
£7.50 Win Bet Dream Composer 15/2-8/1 WON
£1.50 Win Bet Trilby 13/2 Lost
£1.00 Win Bet Arecibo 9/1 Lost






PROFILES & PREVIEWS   






Southwell 3.20

2/1 Art Design, 4/1 Monomyth, 13/2 Bow Street
15/2 Bretton Wood, 8/1 Leyhaimur, 10/1 Saytarr
12/1 Sea Of Diamonds, 14/1 Green Pursuit
14/1 Inconspicuous, 14/1  Lady Lightning
14/1  Tower Of Africa.

6f Nursery

Horses rated 0-71

ART DESIGN has topweight

Some would argue that her weight
A filly giving weight to male horses
Combined with no sand experience
Make her look poor value at 7/4
But I'd rather bet her  than lay her

His top class trainer
Has placed him beautifully here

 This is a 0-70

But horses rated 71 and 72
Are also allowed to take part

Last time out at Newmarket
A Grade 1 track in a class 2

He was the lowest rated (71)
Got weight from better horses
His rivals had these ratings
86 90 81 79 85 77 83 72 78

Noe he is down 4 grades
Concedes weight to inferior horses
His rivals have these ratings
71 71 71 70 68 68 67 64 64 63

Big drop in class for him

MONOMYTH the 2nd favourite
Only won a Class 6 race last time
And he only just got home there
I opposed him doubting stamina
Not convinced he will get home
Takes between 3-4 seconds more
To run this 6f than at Doncaster

There are a low of raw horses
A lot of class 6 horses up in grade
Some will never reach a class 2
Expecting the favourite to win it

Selection

ART DESIGN 7/4-13/8

Win Bet







Tramore 4.03

7/2 Garde La Peche, 4/1 Tullyveery Lad, 13/2 Natural Breeze
7/1 Lake Chad, The Abbey, 8/1 Room To Roam, 12/1 True Faith
14/1 Gateau De Miel, 16/1 Balinaboola Steel, 20/1 Smitty Bacall
25/1 Definiteadare, Elegant Dan.
 
Handicap Chase 2m 6f

Horses rated 0-123

TRUE FAITH is topweight
Having one and a half races
In the previous 22 months
Suggests he may lack fitness
GATEAU DE MIEL an 8yo
May need a couple more runs
Before he looks ready to win

Recent winners
Had these chase runs

5 13 5 8 1 6 3

Unexposed horses do best
Opposing the most exposed

THE ABBEY
LAKE CHAD

LAKE CHAD has a recent run
Hammered 51 lengths in that race
SMITTY BACALL looks similar
Having had a heavy recent defeat

Several others seem out of form
Just not doing enough to consider

ELEGANT DAN
DEFINITADARE
BALINABOOLA STEEL

NATURAL BREEZE is an option
Don't mind he has just 2 chase runs
But he is going up 6f in distance too

ROOM TO ROAM has a chance
Seems to be running himself into fitness
Not convinced he is quite there yet
 
GARDE LA PECHE is a mare
Lightly raced 5 runs just 2 chases
Cost plenty and powerful owners
She would be the second choice

TULLYVERRY LAD first choice

Both horses met 47 days ago

GARDE LA PECHE finished 2nd
TULLYVERRY LAD only in 7th
He did not jump very well that day
He has since ran twice over hurdles
Two good run including 2 days ago
Winning a handicap hurdle easily
If he jumps well he should take this

Selection

TULLYVERRY LAD  9/4

Win Bet







Pontefract 4.45

7/4 Adaay In Devon, 5/2 Rage Of Bamby
11/2 Marine Wave 13/2 Miaharris, 14/1 Midream
16/1 Queen's Guard, Symbology, 20/1 Tiger Bay
 
Flying Fillies' Stakes

Listed race 6f

Best horses on ratings

ADAAY IN DEVON

RAGE OF BAMBY

Not too comfortable with either

ADAAY IN DEVON
Ran over 5f just 8 days ago
She is coming up in distance
Only last years winner of this
Won coming from a 5f race
Had plenty of hard recent runs
This could come a bit quick
But she does have a fit profile

RAGE OF BAMBY does not
She's raced twice in 10 months

Past renewals show
Horses with under 3 runs
In the previous 7 months
Running within 8 weeks
Have a 0-24 record in this
RAGE OF BAMBY fails this 

Not many others are safe
Several are rated too low

QUEENS GUARD
MIDREAM
TIGER BAY
 
TIGER BAY is a 4yo
He's raced once in 99 days
Not helpful when rated lower
Tham horses with fitter profiles
 
SYMBOLOGY isn't running well

MIAHARRIS a 3yo
Hard to read last run in France
Main worry is 1 run in 93 days

Past renewals show
Horses aged 3
Just 1 run in 90 days
Have a 0-23 record
MIAHARRIS fails this angle

MARINE WAVE is a 4yo
Rated 98 against 104 rated horse
She is in striking distance of them
Been running herself fit this year
Coming off a lifetime best figure

Option 1
 
Marine Wave 6/1 Each Way

Option 2

Marine Wave win bet
Adaay In Devon saver

Going with the each way
Miaharris does frighten me
Could have underestimated her
Each way would offer some cover

Selection
 
MARINE WAVE 6/1

Each Way







Pontefract 5.15

7/4 Godsend, 2/1 Letsbefrank
5/1 The Grand Visir, 8/1 Knights Affair
8/1 Tenerife Sunshine,  Tessy Lad.

Handicap 2m 1f

GODSEND is the only 3yo
History of this race suggests
Your better off with the 3yo's
Than you are with 4 year olds
 
Horses aged 4
Have a 2-59 record in this race
Not too significant in a small field
But he has the fittest profile here

Runs in the last 6weeks

5 Godsend
4 Tessy Lad.
2 The Grand Visir
2 Letsbefrank
2 Tenerife Sunshine

TESSY LAW looks outclassed
If he is beaten as you'd expect
GODSEND has a far fitter profile
Than the rest of the field have

THE GRAND VISIR is a 10yo
But has ran twice in August so far
Has a good run just 8 days ago
He is dropping down in class here
GODSEND is going up in class
So going to make him a saver bet

Means instead of 7/4 Godsend
We get 5/4 and a valuable saver

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet GODSEND 7/4-13/8

£1.50 Win Bet THE GRAND VISIR 11/2-6/1







Pontefract 6.15

11/4 Vantheman, 3/1 American Affair, 11/2 Walbank
15/2 Curious Rover, Dream Composer, 8/1 Trilby
9/1 Dark Vintage, 10/1 Arecibo.

5f Handicap

Class 2

8 runners

Statistics in these races
Harder to trust in small fields
So making a token effort

August
Similar handicaps show
Horses aged 3 are 3-73
None of today's 3yo's
Are a safe enough match
So opposing these horses

VANTHEMAN
DARK VINTAGE
CURIOUS ROVER

Horses aged 3
Going up in class
Have a 0-26 record

CURIOUS ROVER fails this
VANTHEMAN does as well
Obviously most of the 26 losers
Did come in bigger sized fields

WALLBANK is rejected
With just 1 run in 198 days
 
AMERICAN AFFAIR next out

In the same period of time
That he has raced just once

TRILBY has raced 3 times
DREAM COMPOSER has 4 runs
ARECIBO has 4 runs

Split staking that trio

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet DREAM COMPOSER 15/2-8/1

£1.50 Win Bet TRILBY 13/2

£1.00 Win Bet ARECIBO 9/1






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
 


Next Week

Wednesday to Saturday

York's Ebor Festival

One of my best tracks

Brilliant racing all week

The Ebor is the big handicap

I will have different target races

But some race stats for this below






Ante Post Statistics

Saturday

August 24th

York 3.35

Ebor Handicap

9/1 Epic Poet, 10/1 Queenstown, 10/1 Harbour Wind
12/1 Naqeeb, 12/1 Fairbanks, 12/1 Belloccio
12/1 Magical Zoe 16/1 Burdett Road, 16/1 My Mate Mozzie
16/1 Ziggy 20/1 Relentless Voyager, 20/1 Onesmoothoperator
20/1 Phantom Flight 20/1 Night Sparkle, 25/1 Hipop De Loire
25/1 Salt Bay, 25/1 Jackfinbar, 25/1 Drawn To Dream
25/1 Kyle Of Lochalsh, 33/1 Klondike, 33/1 Dawn Rising
33/1 Satin,  33/1 Shadow Dance, 33/1 Crystal Delight
33/1 Aimeric, 33/1 Lot of Joy, 33/1 Plontier, 33/1 Chillingham
33/1 Wise Eagle, 33/1 Caius Chorister, 33/1 Sea King
33/1 Yashin, 33/1 Bague D'or, 33/1 Not So Sleepy
40/1 Insanity, 50/1 Iron Lion, 50/1 Prydwen, 50/1 Kihavah
50/1 Beamish, 50/1 Alfred Boucher, 50/1 Calling The Wind
50/1 Intinso, 66/1 The Goat, 66/1 Tashkhan, 66/1 Fox Journey
66/1 Kolossal, 66/1 Maxi King, 66/1 Prince Alex, 66/1 Enemy,
66/1 Sheer Rocks, 66/1 Oneforthegutter, 66/1 Sheradann
66/1 Track Of Time, 66/1 Forza Orta, 100/1 Weston
100/1 Mr Curiosity
 
Need a Group 2 horse to win
Most probably is unexposed
Coming from a top class yard


The last 12 winners
Had these official Ratings

104 101 108 108 108 109
103 103 99 106 98 101

Horses rated 97 or less
Have not won this race
Although only 20 have tried

Go back to 1980
No horse has won this race
When aged 8 or older

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 1-68 record since 1997
Only 1 that age won since 1980

Horses with 1 run that season
Quite often win this handicap
But none did with over 8 races

Go back to 2007
Horses with over 3 runs
In the previous 12 weeks
Have a 0-49 record in this
These could be overraced

Horses aged 4
Have a very modest 5-203 record
Those with over 12 runs are 0-66
Those with under 6 runs are 0-22

Horses aged 4
Running within 5 weeks
Have a poor 2-114 record
Those from Class 2 or lower
Have a 1-69 record in this

Go back to 2003
Horses under 6 years old
More than 16 career runs
Have a win-less 0-67 record

The last 10 renewals show
Horses with over 18 runs
Have a poor 1-69 record

Go back to 2005
Horses drawn 1-5 are 1-90
Horses under 6 years old
Drawn in stalls 1-8 are 0-92

Go back to 1997
Horses with 9st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-38 record

All recent winners
Came from Class 2 or higher

No horse has won this
Beaten over 10 lengths last time

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