Hi Mick Here Not Guy

I just wanted to drop you all an email to explain
the lack of Guy's racing message today.

We woke up to find the entire website off line.
Also offline was our website email.
Our hosting company had some sort of
melt down and the mathematician-betting
site was not the only one effected.

It was a frustrating day.
At one point I had been sitting in a hosting company
tech support chat queue for four hours. All the time
there I reading a silly message that kept telling that
my wait time was to be four minutes.

My email came back online and working about 2pm.
At that point I was able to forward today's
message to a small group who had emailed me
asking "Where is today's message?"

The website was still hosting company bust however
and I had no means to email the usual client group
as all that is stored online.

The good news is that the website is back working again since 7:30 pm.
Things should be back to normal moving forwards.
To be fair to our hosting company problems
such as today's are not at all common with them.
Two dud days over a decade perhaps.

Anyhow I just wanted to proactively get in touch
to explain to you was going on today.
There was nothing wrong your end.
The problem was at our end.

By law of sod Guy had some decent analysis today.
I have copied it below for completeness.
I know some of you like to read the Yesterday's Review section
But obviously overall it is no big use to you now at this late stage
unless you are the rare sort who likes to note
researched stats for your own future use etc.

Anyhow onwards and upwards from here I hope.

Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
==================

Mathematician 4844
Sunday September 1st

6 Previews 
0 Account Bet
  

No Account Bet
 


Apologies the message is late
The serves we use were down
Only avalable option on sunday
Sit suffer and wait for a repair



Favourite Bet


Brighton 4.22

£6.00 Win Bet Forgotten Treasure 11/2-6/1

£4.00 Place Bet Forgotten Treasure 11/8-5/4 (1-2)






Final Deliberations

Not much choice today

Plenty of rain about

Short playful message

 
6 Previews

3 Brighton
3 Tipperary


Enjoyed doing this message
But there is very little doubt
This is just a playful message
Not one for serious stakes

Scrappy lower grade racing

Worcester offers us nothing

Brighton has many small fields
But there are 3 races I do like

Tipperary is the hardest card
Which again offers us 3 races



In the last hour

Non runners have affected us
This has caused price changes
Closing down many options
Wanted to discuss these races




Brighton  2.22
 
£6.00 Win Bet THE RESDEV WAY 9/2

£4.00 Win Bet PRIDE OF NEPAL 7/4

Two important non runners
Have killed price of this bet
Forced to change plans here
Pride Of Nepal should win it
But at the prices compromising
Don't fancy any other runner



Tipperary 3.30

WITHOUT WORDS 20/1-25/1

Each Way

She is drifting in the market
But so are several others too
Because the favourite in this
Has developped into a plunge
Think she has a small chance
Happy to bet her at this price
Given there are just 8 runners
Joseph O'Brien is so capable
She will probably get beaten
I like the price and narrative
Smaller stakes not confident
But have to have a little bet

 

Brighton 4.22
 
£6.00 Win Bet FORGOTTEN TREASURE 11/2-6/1

£4.00 Place Bet FORGOTTEN TREASURE 11/8-5/4

6 runner handicap
Favourite looks unsafe
Fails a 25 year generic
Can't split the 5 others
But I prefer this horse
There are just 2 places
Not ideal but thats life
Prefered to go £4 place
Then guess a saver bet







Preview Selections


Tipperary 2.00 - Shackelton 8/11
Brighton 2.52 - Acrisius 8/11
Win Double

Brighton 2.22
£6.00 Win Bet The Resdev Way 9/2
£4.00 Win Bet Pride Of Nepal 7/4
 
Tipperary 2.30
£6.00 Win Bet No Return 100/30-3/1
£4.00 Win Bet Dignam 6/4-13/8
  
Tipperary 3.30
Without Words 20/1-25/1
Each Way

Brighton 4.22
£6.00 Win Bet Forgotten Treasure 11/2-6/1
£4.00 Place Bet Forgotten Treasure 11/8-5/4

Tipperary 4.30
£4.00 Each Way Dancing Steve 6/1-13/2
£2.00 Win Bet Sobriety Blue 5/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4








Yesterday's Summary  

It was a 6 preview message
It finished up P P W L L L
Mixed feelings about things
Excellent in the opening half
Nothing back in the second
Message worked well early
Controlled with strong stats
The saver bet won the first
Albasheer was very unlucky
Should have won that race
But we came out unscathed
Gorak ran a fine race in 3rd
Stakes back no complaints
Spirit Of Applause then won
At this stage going beautifully
Second half have us nothing
Not bothered about the finale
Irish Cambridegshire so hard
Always unlikely to land that
Samus finished in third place
But there were only 7 runners
I warned that this was likely
He was the planned main bet
But 15 minutes before I sent
Micheal Owen openly stated
He'd probably withdraw one
These last minute challenges
Are not unusual on a saturday
He was the likely account bet
But I had to chance strategies
It did not make any difference
As he would have been a loser
Call Glory was the chosen bet
Dissapointing he failed to place
He got out made the running
Traded short to win and place
May have done too much early
Fighting early to secure a lead
I'm more critical of the staking
Was clear that if he was headed
He could drop back after that
And lose his chance of a place
The winner was the main danger
The only other horse shortlisted
Should have gone win and saver
Account bet lose was not good
But overall wasn't too unhappy
Felt it was pretty good analysis
One winner should've been two
Feel in form and over a bad run






PROFILES & PREVIEWS  
 
 



Brighton 2.22

7/4 Pride Of Nepal, 5/2 Fen Tiger,
6/1 French Martini, The Resdev Way
12/1 Breguet Boy, 33/1 Miss Raindrop.

12f Handicap

Amateur Riders

Scrappy low grade race

V POWER was the class horse
He is now one or 2 non runners
 
Now down to 6 runners
 
FRENCH MARTINI is a filly
Not first choice with 68 days off
 
FEN TIGER has a clear chance
One thing that could damage him
He is a very exposed 6 year old
Only raced 4 times in 12 months
Only raced twice in 4 months now
Could be wrong but not for me

Shortlist

THE RESDEV WAY an 11yo
Ran 4 days ago over 14 furlongs
Thats not actually a bad profile
Found 3 similar 11yo's winning 
You can not rule him out here

PRIDE OF NEPAL is a positive
Very fit and running well enough

I prefer the favourite

But at the prices flipping them

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet THE RESDEV WAY 9/2

£4.00 Win Bet PRIDE OF NEPAL 7/4

 
 



Tipperary 2.30

7/4 Dignam, 9/4 Cercene, 13/2 No Return
15/2 Whywhywhy Delilah, 12/1 School Of Athens
16/1 Slick, Tamam Desert, 20/1 Pallatine Hills
20/1 Vlhova, 25/1 Ranting And Raven, 28/1 Let It Linger
40/1 Temperance, 50/1 Episodic, The Mizen Queen
66/1 Kamkwahba, 100/1 Drish Samphire.

2yo Maiden 7f

Unusual all the main runners
Have been drawn in high stalls

High numbers are not favoured
But they do win and may today

Not enough evidence

To choose between these

FIVEFORTWO has ran once
Nice debut well backed on it
Not expensive but respected

CERCEME has ran once
Eyecatching debut finished so well

NO RETURN must have a chance
Drawn 12 of 12 at Naas last sunday
Has experience which should help

Could have him as a place bet
Equally could go each way 5/1

Watched them all on video

DIGNAM impressed me most
So easy to make the wrong choice

CERCEME is a non runner

I was going split stake

Dignam as a win bet

No Return a place bet

Thats now impractical

Going in this direction

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet NO RETURN 100/30-3/1

£4.00 Win Bet DIGNAM 6/4-13/8

 




Brighton 2.52

10/11 Acrisius, 7/4 One For Harvey
6/1 Cheeky Stanley, 8/1 Rory Rocket
 
2yo Maiden 5f

Small scrappy field

Racing Post take the view

" ACRISIUS has done enough to suggest
  he holds a major chance in this uncompetitive
  maiden"

Have to agree with that
Could not see a better option
He has done more than enough
Given the alternative options

ONE FOR HARVEY a danger
Cheap filly just 1 previous race
That was 47 days ago started 33/1
Might win but just not tempted
 
ACRISIUS just appeals more

CHEEKY STANLEY is feared
May actually be a bigger danger

There could be a better option
Have a split stake betting two
ACRISIUS as the saver bet
 
I think he will be good enough
But he has now shortened to 8/11
Making that bet barely practical

So having a win Double

Selection


Tipperary 2.00 - SHACKELTON 8/11

Brighton 2.52 - ACRISIUS 8/11

Win Double






Tipperary 3.30

13/8 Super Sox, 2/1 Matilda Picotte, 6/1 Thornbrook
6/1 Wendla, 8/1 Raknah, 10/1 Without Words
12/1 Mammas Girl, 100/1 Red Heel.

Fairy Bridge Stakes

7f Group race for fillies

8 runners

Two dominate the market
Is is worth taking them on ?
Both are short of recent runs

MATILDA PICOTTE 1 run in 99 days

SUPER SOX has ran once in 100 days
 
Every past winner of this
Had at least 2 previous runs
In the preceding 3 months
Those that did not were 0-18
SUPER SOX lacks 2 runs
MATILDA PICOTTE does

Can't make either negative
Just pointing out a possible flaw
That could catch either one out

Safe alternatives are well hidden
No 3 year old has won this race
With more than 12 career starts
RAKNAH has now had 14 runs
The only horse up in class too
MAMMAS GIRL badly placed
Giving weight to superior horses

WENDLA has a testing absence

WITHOUT WORDS is a 3yo
On ratings she should not win
But ratings are not everything
She does has a bit of momentum

Last week ran in the Ruby Stakes
Both the 2009 and 2019 winners
Came from the same prep race

What if she does not stay a mile ?

Her win over a mile in France
In a 3 runner race hardly evidence

More than a possibility on pedigree
That the 8f in this class stretches her
She may benefit from a drop to 7f

Not a race for clear predictions
But there is a case for her to win
And a possible flaw in the fav's

Selection

WITHOUT WORDS 20/1-16/1

Each Way






Brighton 4.22

9/4 Clear Justice, Havana Mojito
9/2 Otago 6/1 Forgotten Treasure
7/1 Ceilidh, 10/1 Heer's Sadie.

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-58

6 runners

CLEAR JUSTICE is favourite

Strangely comes down from 10f

Might win but a dangerous profile

Checked it out

Go back to 1999
7f handicaps
Class 6 races
Any time of year

Thousands of these races

Horses aged 3
More than 10 career runs
Dropping down from 10f
Return a 0-26 record
CLEAR JUSTICE fails this

A couple like him did win
Having 10 previous races
CLEAR JUSTICE has 12

Profile not as bad as I expected
But in 25 years of similar races
None like him managed to win
So I think we have to oppose

The problem we have
No other clear negatives
Small low grade field
Any of them might win

I like the bottomweight

Not normally drawn to those
As the lowest rated in the race

FORGOTTEN TREASURE

She is a 3yo filly

Won once in 15 races so far

Her last 2 runs interest me
Penultimate run at Wolverhampton
She simply went off too quickly
Ran out of petrol finished in 5th
Lost it tactically going off too fast

Last time out at Lingfield

Drawn 1
Inexperienced jockey
Held up from the lowest draw
Suffered some early scrimmaging
Generally given a pretty poor ride
But finished well tenderly handled
She had plenty in hand at the end

Going to give him a chance here

Plenty of room for a saver bet
But no strong opinion which

Going to have a part win-place

If he finishes in 1st or 2nd
We get most stakes returned

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet FORGOTTEN TREASURE 11/2-6/1

£4.00 Place Bet FORGOTTEN TREASURE 11/8-5/4





Tipperary 4.30

5/1 Simple Endeavour, 11/2 Dancing Steve, 6/1 Bizarre Dreams
6/1 Mary Bagot, 10/1 Beyond Your Dreams, 10/1 Sobriety Blue
12/1 My Vonnie, Sing A New Song, Tartaraghan, 14/1 Poppadom
16/1 Dynamite Defense, 20/1 Nosey Anna, 25/1 Royal Dynamite
25/1 The Crafty Girl, 33/1 Del Posto, Noble Andy.

3yo Handicap 9f

Apprentice riders

Only 4 past renewals
That's not nearly enough
To know how to play this

No strong draw bias
An unusual distance

Just too much against us
So it is an informed guess

Opposing a few of these

Taking on the inexperienced

MY VONNIE has just 3 runs
NOBLE ANDY has 4 races

MARY BAGOT 112 days off

BEYOND YOU DREAMS out
He is coming up from 5f to 9f

TARTARAGHAN is a filly
Up in trip may not get home

SING A NEW SONG rated 47
POPPADOM has several flaws


Came down to 4 horses

SIMPLE ENDEAVOUR

DANCING STEVE

BIZARRE DREAMS

SOBRIETY BLUE


BIZARRE DREAMS a filly
Faces 56 days off and 9st 13lbs
That combination could hurt

SIMPLE ENDEAVOUR a filly
Cost a fortune not delivered
She also has 8 weeks absence
And plenty of weight as well

Looked at all similar races

August and September
3yo handicaps
Run over 8f 9f and 10f
Class 5 and lower
Fillies with over 4 runs
Absent over 47 days
Return a 0-95 record
The following horses fail

MARY BAGOT
SIMPLE ENDEAVOUR
BIZARRE DREAMS

Because of that

Shortlisting just 2 horses

DANCING STEVE 7/1

SOBRIETY BLUE 5/1

Hard to be confident
Decided to go this way

Selection

£4.00 Each Way DANCING STEVE 6/1-13/2

£2.00 Win Bet SOBRIETY BLUE 5/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4
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