Wednesday May 1st

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The Reccomendations
Account Bets

No Account Bet
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The Best Bet of The Day
Pontefract 3.25

QAZWEEN
( EACH WAY )

I, keeping it very tight at the moment with all the rain and big fields ,
and its VERY Hard this week so far . I,m ignoring the Suicide meeting at
Ascot and concentrating on Pontefract , but today is totally uninspiring
and lacking in any bets worth having . I,ve decided to go for Value today
on a horse that Has a big chance and ought to be placed at least. I Will
say, that I am afraid of a danger in the race called MOLAAF at 14/1 and
i,ve had a saver at 14/1 t small stakes. Its a cheap option and I give her
a good chance , and she,ll try and steal it from the front. Its QAZWEEN
Though a BBOD
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Yesterdays Summary
Just the "BBOD" Naughty Girl who was Beaten a short head at 7/4 and was a
loser. Slightly frustrating but thats the rub of the green in this game and
there will are times when you win a short head , so I have no complaints
about the run.
It was carnage fr Nottingham punters with a host of big priced shocks
yesterday. Thats down to the ground changing.
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Ante Post News
I Shant stake it, as its only a "predicted " Free bet , but i,ve hammerd
Jose Marie Olazabal in the French Open Golf at 6/1 last night in
anticipation of a free bet later in the tournament. If You follow me in, I
think you have a clever bet and with 5 places available,European form of
2-1-5-4 and only 2 opponents in the Worlds top 50, Hes a steal fo me. Only
3 days to the 2000g and tere is now NO Good to Firm at Newmarket and a real
danger of soft ground. That may not help King of Happiness. Hes a real
daisy cutter and i,m glad ive hedged him . Alasha in the Guineas is really
becoming popular , but I,d take 3rd place now. The Oaks is the race for me
and i,ve been waiting for Ladbrokes to shift that 20/1 and theyve finally
done that .
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The Exchange Files

Pontefract 2.20

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Naahy, 4/1 Revenue, 8/1 Donny Bowling, Hilltime, 9/1
Sanbenito, 10/1 Fellow Ship, 12/1 Boroughset Boy, Dunn Deal, 20/1
Bramantino, Summer Special, 25/1 Big Pee Tee, No Looking Back, Wizard Of
Us.

I Dont like enough of these to chance against the unknown and unraced
elements .NAAHY hasnt done enough for me as His time figure was very slow
and the 3rd came out and was beaten out of site next time out. REVENUE,s
form looks to have a weak look to it , and with stables like Barry Hills,
Berry and Ramsden having unraced 2 year olds, its best not to play Heavily
in my opinion. My Best news is for the unraced Alan Berry horse DUNN DEAL
At 12/1 and i,ve backed the horse to small stakes. The horse gets
criticised in the paper as " stable 2 year olds not firing yet " and thats
all well and Good, but he is 12/1, and this isnt a tip thats generally been
well touted and that improves my confidence

Market wise, HILLTIME can be descibed as "steady " and Holding its place in
the market. NAAHY has seen some money but for a Chanon favourite with
previous experience, its certainly "underbacked " and i,d be inclined to
put him on the "negatives " list. REVENUE is popular and trading at 5/2 to
average stakes . The unraced Ramsden horse SANBENITO is steady to small
money , but DONNY BOWLING isnt very popular. DUNN DEAL Hasnt made much
impression market wise so far but i,m not that concerned about that , and
i,ve only had a small bet at 12.s
Strong Positives=None
Positives=Revenue
Negatives=Donny Bowling+Naahy
Strong Negatives=None
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Pontefract 2.50

Betting Forecast: 5/1 Premier Ambitions, 13/2 Summer Bounty, 7/1 Speedfit
Free, 8/1 Shamwari Song, 10/1 Toejam, Weetman's Weigh, Zechariah, 12/1
Bint Royal, Sharp Secret, 14/1 Air Of Esteem, Moon Royale, One Dinar,
20/1 Ginner Morris, Impish Jude, Shirley Oaks, 25/1 Colour Sergeant,
Prince Minata, River Nymph, 33/1 Inchalong, Thats All Jazz.

There are only 2 points of interest for me in this race. Firstly, my own
Horse AIR OF ESTEEM Runs here at 14/1 . Well, its not actually My horse
anymore as I,ve sold it back to its previous owners . That said, I,ll get
the Full SP About the horse today. From my point of view, if it came up
soft, its got a fantastic chance off "48" , it needs to be fresh, which it
is, and its the worst race its ever ran in before and If the ground right ,
its every chance. It its not soft, then its chance receeds greatly. I Know
Patrick Haslams backed the horse each way to 25 % of his maximum stake and
i,ll have £100 on him out of sentiment as well . Personally, I Cant belive
that the horse can beat a " Back to Form " PREMIER AMBITIONS Getting only
4lbs. I SAY "Back to form " as the horse has just ran two stinkers on sand.
That may have been deliberate, or with excuses, and I dont think its very
relevant, but IF PREMIER AMBITIONS Runs the same race he ran 3 races ago
when winning on sand, then hes a certainty today and He,ll not only beat
Air Of Esteem, he,ll anhialate everything . Its got to be a question mark
against him though, but despite my connection,. or ex connection with the
race, IF You gave me £100 and told me to do what I wanted, then i,d have no
hesitation in having the Lot on PREMIER AMBITION, although, IF Air Of
Esteem is trying, my heart will be rooting for him. That 5/1 about the
Fav is Massive though .

You can argue all day long about the others, you cant split them with
confidence , and IF Premier Ambition fails, which is entirely possible then
you can name any one of about 10 as a possible winner. Market wise,
PREMIER AMBITIONS is best backed in a weak betting heat, but For a Willie
Haggis trained horse dropped into selling company, I,d have expected a Lot
more support and this is reason to worry. UKBetting also pushed the horse
out to 5/1 from 9/2 and the lack of support is a concern. There has been
"token " support for several here like SUMMER BOUNTY ,But in summary the
race has attracted no support for anything at all and players dont seem
interested in the race.

Strong Positives=None
Positives=Summer Bounty+One Dinar
Negatives=Premier Ambitions
Strong Negatives=None
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Pontefract 3.25

Betting Forecast: 9/4 Vanderlin, 5/1 Qazween, 11/2 Its Ecco Boy, Lynchpin,
7/1 Cumbrian Crystal, 12/1 Molaaf, Second Venture, 14/1 Regal Melody, 25/1
Jerpahni, Rahjel Sultan, 33/1 Antony Ebeneezer, 50/1 Lord Invincible,
Promising, 100/1 Emarati's Image.

One of my many mental weaknesses, is that I belive i,m an expert on Karl
Burke. I,m not, as there is nobody thats an expert on that Bloke as hes a
law unto himself . Maybe only Nigel Sheilds, as he who pays the piper,
calls the Tune. I Love this stable as its the challenge of a lifetime to
try and predict what strokes they are pulling,a nd i,m almsot obsessed with
Burke and his horses. I,m simply a million miles away from "sussing" him
out, but I,m closer than most and Ive firm views about his ITS ECCO BOY
Here. Burke describes him as a "very well handicapped horse "
Now, for me, and I may be wrong, I,m using intelligent "guesswork" based on
study and statistics I have for Karl Burke, (and watch this now win 10
lengths), but i CANT Belive this horse will be "off " today. Even if I have
my best ever punting day today, IF This wins, i,ll be cast in misery all
night as i,m sure i,m on the verge of getting him right. I Have had
expensive failures from this yard ( our 1st account bet was from this
yard) , but hes done us proud before, and he did supply Miracle Island at
20/1 . Anyhow, my reasons for it not being "off ".
a) Burke hates Pontefract and has won only 1 race from his last 20 runners
here since 1996
b) Burkes record with maidens, first time out horses and 4 year olds
c) The very fact its "well handicapped " . Should this "70" rated horse
beat horses rated "85" and "70" Giving them "10lbs " and "15lbs " then
Burke will Blow that Handicap mark in one swoop . The horse is a maiden,
and they will be keen to win a race, but Handicaps will give them far
better chances in the future and winning here makes little sense.

LYNCHPIN Being an unraced Haggis horse, is best left alone without Heavy
market support . Hes owned by his trainer and thats Not always a positive
sign. CUMBRIAN CRYSTAL is also a "percentage " horse to ignore being a
filly against colts, and an "first time out " Easterby horse this year. She
looks to have ability but whether shes allowed to show it, or capable
enough on her debut is opn to debate. Again the market needs watching.
QAZWEEN Was dissapointing last time, But he may not have stayed, he may
have been beaten by the draw, and with a low draw today he makes some
appeal at 5/1 , especially each way . VANDELIN Will take a huge ammount of
beating despite a porr draw. This looks by far his best trip. and He may
have met a good horse last time. Watch the market with MOLAAF , Clive
Brittains Filly is held by Qazween on form, but Clive Brittain has an
exceptional record at Ponetfract and hes not adverse to having big priced
maiden winners here, and she may not have been "off " last time. MOLAAF
Couldnt Have won from stall 1 at Folkestone last time, and shes not a bad
sort having ran well in listed class last year, and at about 12/1 she may
be the Value of the race

Market wise, the VANDELIN Supporters are strong and they are betting him
heavily to defy his draw. He was very well backed last time I remember and
the supports here again at shorter than 2/1 . There is Late strength in
QAZWEEN , None in LYNCHPIN , and the Easterby horse CUMBRIAN CRYSTAL hasnt
started to be supported yet either.

Strong Positives=Vandelin
Positives=qAZWEEN
Negatives=Cumbrian Crystal+Lynchpin
Strong Negatives=None
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Pontefract 4.00
Betting Forecast: 9/2 Lingo, 5/1 Royal Approval, 6/1 Shanook, 7/1 Total
Turtle, 8/1 River Reine, Tunstall, 10/1 Alrida, 12/1 Clipperton, Northern
Nymph, 14/1 Lucayan Legacy, 20/1 Calatagan, Lengai, Raybaan, 25/1 Wensley
Blue, 50/1 Honor's Lad.

This race has an "anything can win " look to it with unexposed , many
unraced, and talented 3 year olds from powerfull stables cramped into a 15
runner field , and as many as 10 can win. Biggest market clue is the
weakness is John Dunlops ROYAL APPROVAL Who is 5/1 in the post, yet unable
to be laid at 7/1. TOTAL TURTLE is the best backed horse marginally and
was very unlucky last time having been stopped in running twice and would
have won.

Strong Positives=None
Positives=Total Turtle+Shanook+Lingo+Tunstall
Negatives=Royal Approval
Strong Negatives=None
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Pontefract 4.30

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Bright Green, 9/2 Pyrrhic, Touch Light, 7/1 Tawoos,
8/1 Andrew Doble, 10/1 Medallist, Sticky Green, 12/1 Global Challenge,
16/1 Iconium, Oops, 20/1 Czarina Waltz, 25/1 Arctic Lagoon, Tobago Fizz,
66/1 Ballinger Ridge, Fairmorning, Mr Ricciolo.


Another Menace of a Maiden. Strong stables, and potential listed/group
horses here. TAWOOS from stewarts is reported as "very, very good " but a
filly First time up against colts will be a tall order .Plenty fancied, the
weakest in the market would be ANDREW DOBLE and PYRRHIC, But everything has
some sort of support. BRIGHT GREEN Has been the best backed and will be
about 9/4

Strong Positives=None
Positives=Bright Green+Tawoosh+Stickly Green
Negatives=Pyrrhic+Andrew Doble
Strong Negatives=None
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Pontefract 5.30
Betting Forecast: 6/4 Shararah, 7/2 Bollin Edward, 7/1 Taken Aback, Tre
Colline, 8/1 Midnight Parkes, Tomillie, 20/1 Cut Ridge, Sounds Down, 33/1
Hungry Horace, 50/1 Cannon Bridge, Give A Little Back, Meticulous,
Timeless Charm.
SHARARAH is being heavily backed at 5/4 and evens and is the best backed on
the Card, and looks the "banker"

Strong Positives=Shararah
Positives=None
Negatives=Bollin Edward+Tre Colline
Strong Negatives=Taken Aback
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Pontefract 6.05

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Kylkenny, 11/2 Dash Of Magic, 8/1 Perchancer,
Tarawan, 10/1 Lazzaz, 12/1 Chickasaw Trail, Cinema Paradiso, 14/1 Lago,
Pikestaff, Protocol, 20/1 Crossed Wire, Khuchn, 25/1 Smashing Time, 33/1
Beanboy, Magic Sound, Mr Oboe, 50/1 Initiative, Natsmagirl.

KYLKENNY Is too short at 2/1. I,d far rather take DASH OF MAGIC each way
against him. They raced against each other last time, and KYLKENNY beat
her about 1 length, but theres no doubt that he had first run,a nd DASH OF
MAGIC was putting the best work in late and although on the same weight
terms, Theres every chance that form can be reversed as DASH OF MAGIC has
the improvement more likely. Whats perhaps more significant, is the fact
Both horses have worse jockeys on today, and it may come down to which of
them gives their horse the better ride. PERCHANCER Has a good chance and
is running well but has never won on the flat from his current mark.
TARAWAN is well handicaped, and will win very son, but He is a funny horse,
hes never won in a big field before, and 18 runners and Leanne Masterson
riding doesnt inspire me to open the wallet .CHICKASAW TRAIL ran a carrer
best last time, and drops in class, but it does need considering that hes
never won in over 30 starts and hes a horse to leave alone on the
percentages.

Market wise, PERCHANCER and TARAWAN are "steady " , theres interesting
support at big odds for PROTOCOL Here and hes a positive. KYLKENNY is the
best backed. albeit predictably, but I think hes poor value at 2/1 and many
agree as several trades are happy to lay him and nobodys runing for cover
at 2/1 . DASH OF MAGIC is dissapointingly slow on the exchanges .Had he
been a colt, and ridden by a better pilot, hed have been my BBOD

Strong Positives=None
Positives=Proocol+Kylkenny
Negatives=Dash of Magic+Lazzaz+Chickasaw Trail
Strong Negatives=None
======================
Account
Account Bets= -6.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 26.28
Best E/W Double= -1.39
Negatives =116 Succesful from 129 (89.92%)
Ante Post Account= £2000 ( +0.00 )
Ante Post BBOD High Chapperal 8/1( Derby).