Monday July 8th

Account Bets.

No Account Bet
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Best Bet Of The Day

Ripon 7.50 IMTIHAN

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ANTE POST BETS

Ante Post Bet Stewards Cup on TRACE CLIP £50 at 20/1 ( Corals, Surrey,
see below)

+

I Have come down on IMTIHAN as the Days Best Bet, despite a Close Call with
Treasure Trail ( B3.00) Which is Value, Maimam ( W 8.05) Whom I fancy as
well ( Maimama and Imtihan would make a very attractive each way double) .
Environment audit ( B 4.00) Also nearly made the BBOD Each Way and again
that would also make an attractive 3rd Leg ( with Imtihan and Maiman ) in
each way Doubles and Trebles . I Have a 5 race DRV Below and will be
betting myself in every one of those 5 races .

I Should have some decent news tomorrow for Newmarket's July Meeting and
some Ante Post Bunbury Cup, July Cup updates.#


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YESTERDAYS SUMMARY

No Account Business yesterday and No BBOD. From the analysis , SWEET RETURN
, advised "each way " against a poor favourite finished like a train and
would Have won in a few more strides, but finished 3rd at 71 rewarding the
"place only " backers . My Personal BBOD Was BLUEGRASS BEAU Who ran a
brilliant race and was beaten in a photo , after being backed from 9/2 to
7/2. This was advised Each Way and can be considered unlucky as we had the
bad favourite miles behind . We managed to steer clear of Nick Fox's Bum
Tip Twice Upon a Time , and my suggested alternative was a Non Runner .
There were two 25/1 chances suggested, Illegal made all and just faded,
running well and came 5th , and Mister Mc Duff ran very well in running
2nd to the winner at 25/1 rewarding each way players . Leyton Hewitt landed
the Tennis Bet to ensure a decent day, especially as Cliquey got beaten .
I managed to find a few bad Favs yesterday that got beaten, But I wonder
whether Cliquey was "off " yesterday . I knew Osborne felt he was badly
handicapped, and it missed the break in typical "not off " fashion . Looked
dodgy to me. Important thing is that were back, a good set of analysis ,
much as it wasn't stretching me much and hopefully some of you will have
won from the day.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

TODAYS RACING

Looking at 5 Betting Opportunities Today in the DRV And I'm quite Keen on a
few of them.


BATH 3.00 Betting Forecast: 7/2 Baringo, 5/1 Norwood Origo, 11/2 Desert
Air, 13/2 Mission To Mars, 15/2 The Sun Also Rises, 9/1 Cool Bathwick,
Dizzy Tart, Treasure Trail, 10/1 Aunt Hilda, 25/1 Bahamian Sun, 33/1 Cody,
Emerald Mist, 50/1 Green Hart.


The Post say they were tempted to give BARINGO Another chance but didn't.
I,m tempted and will give him a chance. His form this year has comprised of
a 0-3-4 profile. Two of those races were on soft ground. If You look at
his breeding ( Miswaki) they have a terrible record on soft ground and a
far better one on fast ground and I think he hated the Mud . His 2nd race
this year on fast ground wasn't too bad, 4 horses pulled clear and the
horses chance today completely revolves around a) What's Today's Ground
Like , and b ) whether he's well handicapped off his rating of "75" .

Truth is, he probably isn't well handicapped , but this is Only a Maiden
Handicap, these are disappointing 3 year olds are Roger Charlton says he
will be suited by "going up to middle distances " . The step up to 11f
today may be the makings of BARINGO and he could leave these for dead .
However , I would NEED To be sure of the ground being Fast before I
backed him , and that's Far from certain with rain forecast . It's a
judgement call really , and you need to watch the weather and the early
races . IF It rains then oppose him , and its also interesting to note
that BARINGO Faces stiff opposition on Betfair and is trading at 11/2 This
morning which is a negative in itself . NORWOOD ORIGO is very one-paced
and needs dropping in the handicap a few pounds But has a chance if the
grounds Fast .

DESERT AIR May win this on his last run, that form looks stronger than
this and I fancy him far more than NORWOOD ORIGO And Paul Cole has a
decent record at Bath . He's value at 11/2 if you can trust "one piece of
form " . I Would grow in confidence a hell of a lot IF There was
substantial rain as this horse has a real soft ground action and this may
be too sharp for him on good ground . MISSION TO MARS May need dropping in
the weights and a longer trip, but the market should tell you if he's
fancied, and that's important with him. ( Nick Fox has tipped him in the
Post which won't help his price ) .

The Horse I like is TREASURE TRAIL From Sylvester Kirks yard. The reason he
is 12/1 is because he flopped on sand and was beaten Miles at Southwell
last time. Ignore that run. Without that , hed be a 5/1 chance here, and
his Sire ( Millkom) has a disastrous record at Southwell and its long odds
on that he hated the surface. His previous race, in a decent time was
excellent, when 2nd to a very strongly fancied Gerard Butler horse ( E
Minor) when TREASURE TRAIL Pulled 6 lengths clear of the 3rd horse that
night . He's lightly raced and May be on the upgrade. His yard are in form
and Have sent winners to Bath before .

At The Post Prices, I'd make TREASURE TRAIL My Number 1 selection , and
he's the value . The Ground would be the main factor for me, IF It was
raining and looking on the soft side, then I'll be a) Increasing my
TREASURE TRAIL Bet Substantially and b) saving my stake on DESERT PRINCE ,
Yet IF It looks on the fast side ( Its really hard to call at the moment)
then I'd be inclined to save on BARINGO Despite the negative exchange
betting. TREASURE TRAIL at 12/1 is the selection, with the softer the
ground, the more confidence I'd feel in an open race.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
BATH 4.00 Betting Forecast: 5/4 Transit, 4/1 Environment Audit, 5/1
Dawana, 8/1 Sandy Bay, 12/1 King Sila, 16/1 Al Mansingh, Blazing Saddles,
20/1 Acquitaine, 33/1 Dance Lesson.

TRANSIT has done nothing wrong, and has a lovely progressive profile.
Teaching him to settle has been the only reason he hasn't won yet and
whilst not a stable star, Cecil's horse looks easily good enough for a
race like this. ENVIROMENT AUDIT is a serious danger now Barry Hills has
his team in good form. Unplaced in a listed race at Chester on his season
debut, he ran 2nd in a maiden at Newmarket on his 2nd start. ENVIROMENT
AUDIT had been ridden clear of a newcomer approaching the furlong mark and
looked all over the winner at that stage. But the mile and a half may have
been too far for a horse whose sire and dam were both milers .He's since
ran ok in a Sandown maiden and He is terrific each way Value at 4/1 against
a decent favourite. They BOTH Have excellent chances but the difference
between 5/4 and 4/1 is too big here for the reflective merits of each horse
and I have to prefer the 4/1 about ENVIROMENT AUDIT Each way . DAWANA is
respected as a Stoute horse, but it's a Filly , did nothing on her debut,
and needs to improve a lot . She can be given a chance by the fact many of
Stoutes are not ready on their debuts, but DAWANA Is related to many soft
Ground Mudlarks, and IF Bath is riding fast , it will see her like Bambi
on Ice. Only Heavy rain could make me fancy her . I Think that a very
strong market move would imply she's improved a great deal and is
respected, but she's not for me. SANDY BAY is going the right way and
could have one or two supporters without looking solid enough yet and She's
Bred for the Mud . KING SILA is unraced As is AL MANSINGH . Its not 100%
clear cut, but the front 2 are probably the two to concentrate on, and at
the prices there is no doubt I'm an ENVIRONMENT AUDIT Man each way, but had
they bet 2/1 Joint Favs, I'd have gone for Cecils. The Markets dictated by
Bet .

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
MUSSELBURG 4.15 = Betting Forecast: 2/1 American Cousin, 9/2 Strensall, 8/1
Lone Piper, 10/1 Columbine, 12/1 Johayro, King Of Peru, Pleasure Time,
Tancred Times, Xanadu, 16/1 Polar Haze, 20/1 Flying Tackle, Las Ramblas,
The Old Soldier, 33/1 Nifty Major, 50/1 Alfie Lee, Northern Svengali,
Sharp City.

I Can't see past AMERICAN COUSIN But whether 2/1 is value is very
subjective . I Personally Don't Know , But I think he will win and From
his opposition I don't fancy anything else here .
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

RIPON 7.50 =Betting Forecast: 2/1 Imtihan, 7/2 Knavesmire Omen, 4/1 Fiza,
7/1 Fortune Island, 10/1 Direct Descendant, 12/1 Robbie Can Can,
Washington Pink, 16/1 Oops.

IMTIHAN , Whilst NOT Well handicapped is different Class to KNAVESMIRE
OMEN, Who had been beaten in sellers and claimers and maiden handicaps
before finally winning. I think the ability and potential difference
between Both these horses is Obscenely bigger than the 12lbs that
KNAVESMIRE OMEN Gets today. That's my first conclusion, that KNAVESMIRE
OMEN Won't be good enough to win this race . Whether IMTIHAN can defy a
mark of "73 " or not is the issue here . I Can't have FIZA Here either.
This won a messy race at Windsor. It was soft patchy ground, there was a
suicide pace and he coped better than anything else to win at 20/1. He was
raised 6lbs to "60" and was easily beaten at 2/1 next time out back on fast
ground in a normal race . He was then raised a further 4lbs to "64" and
was beaten at Ripon , seemed to run quite well though on soft ground in a
half decent race, but the Time was slow and illustrates that he didn't
actually run very fast. Bell took him to Fibresand at Southwell last time
and FIZA Got stuffed 18lbs. Maybe I'm missing something But I have this
down as one paced, flattered, disappointing, regressive, ( His last figures
are going backwards 59-56-55-54) and I think that he is poor value at 4/1
and I can't fancy him at all .

FORTUNE ISLAND is a puzzling enigma. He ran 3 times for Sean Woods as a 2
year old, got himself handicapped, went to Chris Walls and had had 1 race
as a 3 year old. I Can present two cases for him. Let me explain by
looking at FORTUNE ISLAND Through the Lenses of 2 form books, One is "Rose
tinted " and the other is "cynical form "

Looking through the "Rose tinted " spectacles, I could say he's a
progressive horse ( Had a "p" in Timeforms journal) , needed the race in a
Leicester Maiden last month when a very decent 7th. The Winner ( Highest)
nearly won a Huge Handicap at Royal Ascot for us at 10/1 , The Runner up
(Champion Lodge) came out and destroyed a maiden field by 7 lengths, the
3rd horse that day ( Stance) Hacked up last week in a maiden and the Form
looks Rock Solid. He's sure to improve , from a stable in great form , and
is a great price at 7/1

Looking at FORTUNE ISLAND Through the eye of "cynics form book " weekly, I
could say this. FORTUNE ISLAND Was hammered 14 lengths in that Leicester
maiden, and rather than look at the what the horses that thrashed him have
done, you need to look at what he actually beat himself. The horse
directly behind him was a 100/1 chance who has ran twice since and been
beaten in handicaps by 12 and 34 lengths .The horse behind that was a non
staying 40/1 debutant , the next was beaten 23 on his next start and is a
maiden, and the other 3 horses started 50/1, 500/1 and 200/1 . The Time was
very slow, FORTUNE ISLAND Beat absolutely nothing of note and has never ran
a decent time ( He is ranked 23rd in this race in career best speed figures
on his best run) and He wont be suited by any drying ground as he's a
Turtle Island. He also looked Fit in the paddock by Paddock judges at
Leicester and may not improve much for the run , and he was "on edge " in
the preliminaries last time as well.

So you HAVE To choose which way you choose to read form. "Rose Tinted "
subscribers will view him as outstanding Value at 7/1, Yet " cynical " form
students will view him as flattered . That's the crux and beauty of this
game . The answer ? The Truth ? Only that will be known at 8pm tonight.
Personally you have to look for further clues like market support, how the
ground rides, is it drying out , is it raining etc etc. I Am 100% behind
looking at the race through a Cynics viewpoint and looking at what he BEAT
, Rather than what Beat Him . That's simply professional , but it may not
work in this case. I Fancy him More than KNAVESMIRE OWEN or FIZA , But not
as much as IMTIHAN .

DIRECT DESCENDANT Looks average. His chance is based on being 14lbs better
off with IMTIHAN On Beverley running . DIRECT DESCENDANT Had a bad draw
that day as well, but he was beaten 25 lengths and lacks Class and 10/1
doesn't interest me at all . ROBBIE CAN CAN Doesn't appeal much either ,
nor does anything else. In Conclusion, IMTIHAN Looks the Bet here , even
at 2/1 , with FORTUNE ISLAND Being the enigma.

IMTIHAN , may not be the best handicapped horse in the race, but what can
beat him ? This is a basic 0-75 , and IMTIHAN Comes from a 0-95 Handicap
where he was unlucky to race against Sentinel ( just won 4 races on the
trot) , and the 3rd came out and won next time. Before that he ran into
Sentinel again when meeting many previous winners in 0-85 class, and this
is actually the easiest race he's ran in this year. The 2/1 isn't a bad
price.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Windsor 8.05 Betting Forecast: 7/4 Dawn Invasion, 3/1 Maimana, 9/2 In
Disguise, 11/2 Tissifer, 10/1 Bakiri, 16/1 Fantastic Champion, 20/1 Cracow,
25/1 Sabadilla, 100/1 Jollands.


Interesting little Classified stakes race. I Want to Oppose BAKIRI (
Downgraded stables) and IN DISGUISE ( Total Dodge-Pot) . FANTASTIC CHAMPION
Looks outclassed . TISSIFER is interesting from Pipes yard, and is best
when fresh like today. I want to look elsewhere as the weight for age gives
him a tough task, he's very inconsistent and his last Flat Form, prior to a
jumping campaign wouldn't have been good enough here , CRACOW Has
downgraded stables as well and this is a "match " between DAWN INVASION
From Perrats and MAIMANA From Jarvis's . I Had a "positive " in MM898 For
DAWN INVASION and He duly won easily , and he's very much respected. It's a
close call between the two, but at 3/1 I have to side with MAIMANA From
Michael Jarvis's stable. MAIMANA Hacked up in a maiden race 2 starts ago.
The Runner up ( Champion Lion) won 7 lengths next time in a maiden race
and the 3rd ( Shasta) Bolted up on her next start in a maiden by 3
lengths. That's decent form. She then went to Warwick in a silly 4 runner
Conditions race , she was backed like a certainty into 8/13 and won easily
by 3 lengths. Jarvis's assistant trainer said after the race that "Philip
Robinson said the filly handled the ground but I think she'd appreciate
getting her toe in as was the case on her previous win at Kempton. She has
a great attitude and takes everything in her stride. She was very weak last
year and has taken a while to come to herself." DAWN INVASION is a big
danger , but at a likely price of 5/2, I much prefer MAIMANA. Personally
I'd relish and love the chance to bet her each way at that price, I realise
that's not everyone's Cup Of Tea, and Even if you bet her Win Only, I still
feel she's the value . I Think she will be 2/1 and that would be my minimum
price.

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ANTE POST WATCH

1) I'll Be sorting the Bunbury Cup and July Cup today with a Preview In
Tommorows Message

2) STEWARDS CUP NEWS

Have an Ante Post Bet Today in the Stewards Cup on TRACE CLIP £50 at
20/1 ( Corals, Surrey) .Bet this horse today and take the 16/1 if the 20/1
Has gone .

Summarising, the Balance is £1600 and the Only Ante Post Bets are

£50 ONLY TIME WILL TELL 16/1 + 20/1
£50 TRACE CLIP 16/1 + 20/1

Stewards Cup News is bubbling up . Favourite CHOOKIE HEITON as expected
has now been described as "not running " as expected , TOROSAY SPRING "Wont
Run " either as expected , GATEMAN and several other entries run this week
at Newmarket and the race is about to shake up so You need to strike Now,
Hard and Fast.

My Current Stewards Cup Shortlist is as Follows . I Need to take care
though as the weights will rise for certain, and nobody knows by how much
yet. It could well be 6lbs but this weight rise is crucial as it brings
horses in to the Correct weight range. That

Greenwood 20/1 Onlytime Wil' 20/1 Salviati 20/1 Trace Clip 20/1 Bali
Royal 25/1 Brevity 25/1 Mitcham 25/1 Muja Farewell 25/1 Palanzo 25/1
Scottys Futu' 25/1 Watching 25/1 Banjo Bay 33/1 Flying Millie 33/1 Grey
Emienew' 33/1 My American ' 33/1 Polar Kingdom 33/1 Prince Of Bl' 33/1
Dani Ridge 40/1

Dividing these up isn't hard. There is a strong Bias to the 4 year olds
over the older horses. What I intend to do is List Them and Give them a
ratings system that's easy to Understand . I Shall list the Above short
listed runners, and Give then a Plus sign ( + ) For Every Statistic they
Pass , and a Hash sign ( #) For Every Stat they fail

Greenwood 20/1= + + # + # + # . James Eustace says best "on soft ground
over a stiff 5 f " which may not be suitable enough on the day .
Onlytimewilltell 20/1= + + + # + + + Everything in his favour, weight, age,
profile, number of runs, passes stats test Better than anything .
Salviati 20/1= # + # + + + The main doubt us that He is a 5 year old but
He has decent credentials despite not being well handicapped.
Trace Clip 20/1= + # + + + Talented and quirky. Lacks a win this year, but
he's lightly raced and a potential winner from the Perfect age/weight
group
Bali Royal 25/1= + + # + + + Excellent stats, the dilemma with her is the
fact she may be best at 5f , and will need to defy a life high weight to
win.
Mitcham 25/1= # + + + # + + Major doubt is his age, and the fact he May
not be well treated. He's best Fresh though, will be fresh here.
Muja,s Farewell 25/1= # # + # + # Fails on weight stats, His Last Run which
unplaced, has little or no 6f form , and I prefer others before this at the
moment
Palanzo 25/1= # # + + # + Fails on several stats, but I have a time for
connections, he's had excuses and crucially age and weight are perfect .
Chances .
Scottys Future 25/1= # + + + + + Comes out very well on the stats, but the
Doubt is the fact he's a 7-8f horse and 6f looks too sharp. Dirty Dandy as
well .
Watching 25/1 = # # + + # + + + Mixed profile, age wrong, and surely a
doubt If the ground rode Fast. Probably not a horse that's a likely winner
unless rain
Banjo Bay 33/1 = + # + # + # + + Mixed profile, Mc Mahon says he's a "Soft
ground 7f horse " and this may not test him enough if its fast
Flying Millie 33/1= # # + # + + + + Interesting horse , failed to land a
recent gamble, has questions to answer and current form a major stumbling
Block.
Grey Emienew 33/1= # # + + # + + + Age group is wrong, weight is right,
Talented, but fast ground would worry me , as does his high H,cap mark
My American Beauty 33/1=+ # # + # + # Is she classy enough ? She may not be
from the right weight range .Needs a career best run to win this.
Polar Kingdom 33/1 = # # # + # # Stats say "No ". Right Age , but rising
in the weights for getting beaten . Interesting as never raced on fast, but
bred for it
Prince of Blues 33/1= + + # + # # + Mixed Profile, hard horse to win with ,
not well Hcapped and just risen 4lbs for losing again. Never won on grass
yet .
Dani Ridge 40/1 = # + # + # + + Age right, but worries are fast ground,
inexperience and the 6f trip. Doesn't look a likely winner to me.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
ACCOUNT
+++++++++++
Account Bets= -6.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 27.72
Best E/W Double= + 3.11
Negatives =136 Successful from 153 (88.88%)
Ante Post Account= £1600