Tuesday July 30th

===================


The Best Bet of The Day

Beverely 5.20 (2) SHARP HAT

0.5 Pts Each Way .


Far from an easy decision today and I may have picked "Wrong" from many
close calls. FIRST MAITE would have been the BBOD But for a nightmare draw,
SHARP HAT was always there with a big chance of the vote . HAMBLEDEN
Appealed as well as did others. I,m going with SHARP HAT as I have
negatives for his rivals And i,m confident he will be placed at least .
Its just a watching day really and I would rather have not given a BBOD ,
But its not an OBSD ( Occasional bet some days) its a BB Of the Day and
thats SHARP HAT , a small staked 0.5 pts each way Bet .
+++++++++++++++++++



Issues

1) This week is Glorious Goodwood. I,m Not going to take the whole week
"off the account " I dont think and concentrate soley on Goodwood, as I had
originally planned, as there are very good supporting meetings. There may
be therefore some BBOD,s this week as well at other meetings. I will have a
slight Bias towards the Goodwood cards though .

2) Goodwood Stats. I Have done some preliminary Stats and Trends for many
races this week. IF You want the Statistics, then Mail me and I will send
them to you . I May include some or all of them in the Daily messages
anyway, but If You want them in advance, shout up and i,ll send them to
you.

3) Ante Post News . We Have suffered a major Setback in our ante post
profile as ONLY TIME WILL TELL Will not run in the race. It was taken out
yesterday by Dandy Nicholls and all ante post bets are Lost . Very
Frustrating and Very Annoying to be honest . His reasons were the fact he
felt the ground was going to be too fast. Come Saturday he may regret that
decision with all the rain expected.

4) Ante Post News is at the Foot of this Mail about the Stewards Cup on
Saturday

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


TODAYS RACING

BEVERLEY

There has been 6mm of rain overnight which on hearing that , sounded like a
Motzart symphony. Music to my ears as the cards been priced up on Fast
ground. With BEVERLEY Today i,d have no interest unless the ground changes,
and if it did I,d be pretty Confident and the 6mm is a decent start. I Hate
the first 2 races and i,ll be looking at them with a view to just how fast
it is .In the 3.05 Rainstorm will be a horse that wont act if rain comes
and He would need opposing as would many others. I Cant see why KYDA Cant
win again in the 3.35 after beating Dadeland ( didnt that look a machine
yesterday)
in a very quick time and I think that the Fav Red River Rebel is still 1
race short of a win, and he has been overrated by the Post saying hes
"hitting form".
Hes actually running very slowly and you can pul his recent small field
form to pieces and I wonder if they have the wrong favourite there. Give me
a match bet with Kyda and i,d stay with Kyda I think .
+++++++++
The 4.10 is an open race. Originally I felt that the Best bet on the card
may have be BOND MILLENUIM Who has been very unlucky this year . However,
certain things are putting me off . He wont want any rain despite what the
paper says, and Nick Fox has tipped him in the paper and he was heavily
backed last night . His 8/1 "paper" price is now about 9/2 and I,m not
betting him at that price now . This horse Did Hit form at this track last
summer and he loves it here. He ran a great race at Goodwood when unlucky
in a 0-90 two starts ago . Last time he ran another creditable race at
Beverley but the rain ruined his chance as hes a Fast Ground horse. That
was a 0-85 and he takes a step down in class today and a step up in trip
which should be the answer . He showed he handled 10f at Lingfield on snd
when closing fast on the Classy Pulau Pinang . At 8/1 on fast ground He
was a great bet. At 9/2 on Ground with 6mm of rain and potentially more I,m
happy to pass.
+++++++++
Beverley 4.45 Watch out for a long priced Gamble on The stablemate of Bond
Millenuim called BOND MAY DAY Whose always been well thought of and didnt
stay on his debut. He also returned with a snotty nose and Win, lose or
draw he shouldnt be 16/1 Here.
+++++++++
Beverley 5.20

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Magic Rainbow, 3/1 Quest For Glory, 4/1 Sharp Hat,
5/1 Laurel Dawn, 13/2 Time N Time Again, 8/1 Absent Friends, 25/1 Aunty
Mary, 33/1 Catch The Cat, Quito, 100/1 Above Board, Distant King.

SHARP HAT has Most in its favour, most noticeably the small field, the
ground and Fitness The Draw has been kind as well and he should run a
race close to his best. If he does he can Win this .I Dont care what the
"Form book" says , QUEST FOR GLORY is not a 5f horse. We,ve had this as a
past BBOD and ive seen it run many times. I even think 6f is too sharp and
his 5f "wins" were as a 2 year old where he couldnt go the pace and the
leaders went off too fast. Unless heavy rain comes and turns this into a
true stamina test i,ll be surprised if he can win this at 5f . The last
time i phoned the track the sun was frying eggs on the paddock rail and
the 6mm overnight may have been too little too early . MAGIC RAINBOW Will
hate any rain and i,m waiting to "get" him later if the clouds burst . The
problem and menace with tipping at 1pm is this rain. On Fast ground i,m
going to lay QUEST FOR GLORY , yet on soft ground i,d be reticent to as
that will help his stamina and the main danger (Magic Rainbow) will hate it
so you lose all the value . MAGIC RAINBOW May actually get away with his
"need" for Fast ground, but Michael Bell has had problems getting him back
to his best this year and he says "Magic rainbow is best at 6 furlongs"
and hes yet to run anywhere near as fast this year as He did last year .
My big danger is LAUREL DAWN who is another fast ground horse. Hes badly
in at the weights with some of these, noticeably SHARP HAT, But the LAUREL
DAWN,s stable are in Good form . I Would not want to bet a 3 year old here
( Catch the Cat , Quest for glory, Aunty Mary) but there is a wrong price
and a right price and the 33/1 about CATCH THE CAT is massive value if the
rains fall . However, it wont be 33/1 sadly . TIME N TIME AGAIN is a
frustrating type thats confused Eric Alston for months and a horse that
HATES Racing around horses in a pack. He needs to be isolated and race
alone. ABSENT FRIENDS Has a decent chance but A) Hes drawn 2 of 11 at
Beverley over 5f and B) The last time he came here to Beverley John Balding
said the track didnt suit him and they would not come again. I Think that
SHARP HAT is the clear value here at 6/1 ( available on the exchanges) and
a small each way bet seems sensible for saying He is Racing ideal
circumstances , loves the ground and has a good draw.

Conclusion= SHARP HAT small e/w is the best bet for me With Laurel Dawn the
danger .
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GOODWOOD

1) Day 1 of the festival . This is always a "watching" day for me as we
watch how wrong the going description has been called

2) Its "fast" ground according to everyone. Menacingly the Weather
Forecast is for " serious torrential rain sweeping across eastern and
southern Brittain" according to the forecast, so If thats true, when its
true, and whether that hits Glorious Goodwood or not is a guess.

3) The Analysis Below in the DRV is based on FAST GROUND But if that
changes then You have to be aware .

+++++++++++++++++++++
Goodwood 3.20 Peugeot Gordon Stakes (Class A) (Group 3) (3yo) 1m4f GD-FM
Betting Forecast: 9/4 Izdiham, Nysaean, 11/4 Bandari, 13/2 First Charter,
8/1 Supremacy.

You cant bet NYSAEAN Here IF The ground stays Fast and the 9/4 will be
more like 9/2 + later today without Rain . It may not even run . He simply
hates Fast Ground and when he ran at York on Fast Nysaean didn't impress
to post and failed to cope with the fast conditions, changing his legs and
looking all at sea. You can confidently oppose him here unless it rains. I
Cant fancy SUPREMACY Either . He won at windsor but he only had 1 real
danger that day as his rival ( Mr Sanddancer) put in a stinker. SUPREMACY
is rated significantly lower than his rivals and needs to improve 14lbs at
least to win . This rests between BANDARI, FIRST CHARTER Or IZDIHAM .

Fallon probably could not ride FIRST CHARTER But he may have chosen it if
he could. This is an improving 3 year old who has a remarkable profile on
the clock, improving fast 54-60-65-67-76 . On his Lingfield Derby form
behind BANDARI He has no chance here but thats probably too bad a run to be
true and staying with that form months ago is probably a mistake. He ran
well at Ascot in the Group 2 King Edward 7th stakes. The problem may be the
contours of the track for FIRST CHARTER But thats so unpredictable that its
not going to be known until after the race. BANDARI Was devestating in the
Lingfield Derby Trial but very poor in the Derby. I Remember Kevin Darley
saying that this horse was not the best of Johnstones 3 year olds anyway
and with a 52 day abscence, we are in the dark as to how this horse will
run today. IZDIHAM Looked special at Newbury when beating Burning Sun in a
Maiden. Burning Sun then went to victory in Listed class and Group 2 clas
abroad. IZDIHAM Was 2nd at Ascot still looking like a very smart colt . He
then won in listed Class on Soft Ground at Sandown . I,m confident he will
stay 12 furlongs and looks the most likely horse to run his race

Conclusion= The Selection is FIRST CHARTER . This looks basically a 3
horse race between Izdiham, Bandari and First Charter. IF The ground stays
fast I,d say you cant be confident with either Bandari running his bets
race, Or with First Charter, but "If " one of them does it may still be
enough to beat Izdiham. Izdiham is one of those tricky situations where you
may find you are on the most likely winner , yet not the Best Horse. At
The prices, i,d say the Value was the 13/2 about First Charter but I feel
the best way of making money here is opposing Nysaean rather than picking
which of the 3 could win . This is a St leger trial but a VERY Interesting
Statistic is the fact that 17 of the Last 20 winners of this race were
Moving DOWN In trip and Not Up in trip , and thats why the vote goes to
FIRST CHARTER .

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Goodwood 3:50 Ladbrokes.com Prestige Stakes (Handicap) (Class B)
(3yo+,0-105) 1m6f GD-FM

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Scott's View, 13/2 Big Moment, Jasmick, 7/1
Hambleden, Zibeline, 8/1 Reviewer, 9/1 Elgria, First Ballot, 10/1
Darasim, 12/1 Moon Emperor, 25/1 Triphenia, 33/1 Dance In The Day.


The Following analysis Only becomes relevant IF The Ground is Fast .


JASMICK From Hughie Morrisons Stable, is a Horse I want to Oppose .She is a
Filly, and a tricky one at that, and Has just won a Class C Handicap off
"78" in a small field on soft ground. She now takes a heavy rise in Class,
a Heavy 9lbs weight rise and her trainer recently commented that "JASMICK
Prefers soft ground but when winning last time the 2nd, 3rd and 4th didnt
run to form and she will be very hard to place now as she is a very small
horse and prefers small fields ". On Different ground , and in this Class
i,d suggest shes opposed at 13/2 .

REVIEWER is also with Hughie Morrison. This is a John Gosden cast off . He
came to Morrison rated 65 and both Gosden and Morrison said the horse
"prefered soft ground". REVIEWER Won a Weak 0-68 Amateur riders race at
Warwick 3 weeks ago off "65". He was then raised 5lbs and won at Ascot in a
Better race, but it was a small field, the ground wasnt as fast as it will
be today , and that was only a 0-89 and this is a 0-103, and a Class B
Handicap as opposed to a Class E . Yes it could improve again, and I dont
underestimate the talented trainer, but when they go up in class as much as
this, they need "optimum" conditions and REVIEWER Will hate the ground. The
Form book reads a Win on fast ground. Thats meaningless. It was a maiden
handicap, and the Racing Post commented ....."REVIEWER had shown his best
form on softish conditions last year, and the rain before racing had
obviously taken a bit of the sting out of the ground which helped him drop
his maiden tag". It was not fast ground that day. Thats what kills his
chance today.

ZIBILINE was 4th in this race last year when off "78" . Since then He has
won one race over 13 furlongs and Lost his last 8 races when he has not
dropped in the weights. Hes still pretty high and whilst a horse that likes
the ground and track, He is in a better renewal this year and with no
margin for error he may just find one or two better handicapped. He appears
to be hard to win with. Millman said recently " He does need things to
fall right for him"

BIG MOMENT is a small horse thats not built to carry big weights. He races
off "97" today which is 8lbs Higher than hes ever won from before. He is a
very talented horses but hes also very quirky and this weight wont help
him. He does come here a fresh horse though and from a stable on fire.

ELGRIA is a Richard Hannon Cast off with Sylvester Kirk. He lost his form
and slipped down to a handicap mark of "63" . This was probably due to him
being badly handicapped after running "hotpots" close in bad maidens, which
is always short sighted policy. He won recently but he had to be dropped in
class to a Class F Folkestone 0-64 handicap . He then went up in Class
and was beaten in a 0-70 , before an impressive win at Newbury in a 0-90.
There is little doubt hes improving, and He will stya this trip, but he Has
to race in higfher class again today. The Average Official Ratings of his
Newbury victims was 79.88 , Yet todays rivals are rated on average 88.63 .
I Think He stole the race at Newbury and this will be a far harder task and
I just feel we should be looking for horses that have "Done it " and
ELGRIA Has a tall task today as he faces a further 5lbs weight rise.

FIRST BALLOT Won this race in 2001 off "98" and now attempts the double
off "102 ". Last years race was slightly easier than todays as well and
FIRST BALLOT is now a 6 year old that hasnt always looked genuine. He ran
them into the ground last year and looks sure to try the same today. Hes
the sort that could win this IF He gets the run of the race and is allowed
an uncontested lead . He seems to have to lead and the last 3 times hes
raced things havent gone his way. He may find some better handicapped,
improving types a little too much to cope with today. The Nail in his
Coffin is the form of the Elsworth horses. Hes had a few beaten favourites
lately and has stated very recently that " My horses are not running well
and they are under a cloud. The blood tests are coming back wrong on a
number of them and they are also coughing and other things" .

DARASIM is a classy horse but off top weight He may struggle. He did win
off "102 " in June but the favourite flopped that day and since then hes
been beaten 3 times off his current handicap mark. There is also the
suggestion that He needs 2 miles as he was running in snatches last time
being niggled along and he may be happier with the pace of a 2 mile race.

MOON EMPEROR Has a chance but hes another older "twylight" horse thats hard
to win with and is still some way above his best ever winning mark. He
looks vunerable to improving younger horses and its easy to prefer others.

SCOTS VIEW is interesting as the ONLY Improving 3 year old in the race
getting weight for age allowances of 14lbs. This is a typical improving
Mark Johnstone stayer and merits full respect . He won 3 races on the trot
conceeding weight to bad horses. He beat inferior horses in poor races that
contained Average official ratings of 54 , 45 and 52. He then went up in
Class to a 0-90 when he was rated "80" and failed by a head. The AOR
(Average
Official Rating) of that race rose to 78.50 and it was a big step up in
class. His conquerer there was JASMICK Who runs in todays race but that was
on soft ground and the fast surface today tells me SCOTTS VIEW Will beat
JASMICK At the same weights .SCOTTS VIEW Then dropped back in trip at
Chester and slammed TANDAVI 5 Lengths off a "5lbs" lower mark. Tandavi has
since Won at Pontefract . HAD He stayed on "75" in the Handicap for that
win, You would have wanted to bet him here , but hes been raised 13lbs
since then and that almost negates his weight for age. I strongly favour
the 3 year olds in staying races, but this horse runs Up In Class and
12lbs higher than his best winning mark . I Respect him but 7/2 represents
no value for me .

You would not call HAMBLEDEN "Thrown in " off "92 " but hes had good
excuses this year, and he looks sure to be the most suited to the way the
race should ride. Hes a Classy type, stays fine, is genuine, and loves Fast
Ground. Hes GOT To have a strong pace and a strongly run race and this
year he just has not had that on his 4 starts . First time at York he raced
on a track that gives no help to "hold -up" horses, and he pulled to hard
that day and didnt get home. He then went to Goodwood in a 4 runner race
when finishing 2nd in a messy race and last time, he was 2nd to Todays
rival ELIGRIA. Ive watched the video many times and HAMBLEDEN Should beat
this today. ELEGRIA Got 23lbs that day, got 1st run on Hambleden and stole
the race on the rails from the fast finishing Hambleden. Today , Hambleden
only conceeds 13lbs and will get the race run to suit. Hes a classy stayer
thats on track for the Ebor and from a stable that have sent out 5 winners
in 2 weeks , with luck in running he looks the Value to me at 7/1.

Conclusion= HAMBLEDEN is the suggestion. The "negatives " are Jasmick,
Reviewer , First Ballot and Darasim .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Goodwood 4.25 Oak Tree Stakes (Class A) (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares)
(3yo+) 7f

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Lipstick, 4/1 Mauri Moon, 5/1 Dusty Answer, 11/2
Purple Haze, 13/2 Desert Alchemy, 15/2 Roundtree, 14/1 Kelsey Rose.


Here are a few "stats" for the OAK TREE STAKES

1) 3 year olds with Group Race Form are favoured
2) Age Stats
3 Year Olds = 10 From 87
4 Year Olds = 0 from 15
3) Official Ratings were 97-99-84-105-94-110-112-105-90-102-98
4) This is usually a consolation prize for those Fallen short in the Top
Races

The reason i,m adding the Stats is to try and help rule horses out. MAURI
MOON is the only 4 year old in the field and as this race has not produced
a 4 year old winner in 11 years from 15 fillys, its probably best to rule
this horse out . That said, she won this last year in a very fast time and
her stable have won this for the last 3 years ! I,m not going to "Buck"the
stats though and shes ruled out. Out goes DESERT ALCHEMY as well, as this
is simply because shes rated 88 and that means she would be the one of the
worst winners of this race in recent years and would only have won once in
11 years if you choose to take the official, handicapper as accurate . I
Love LIPSTICK. I Watched this Fly last time out , when I made her a
"negative " on July 12th and wrote ......" LIPSTICK Takes a big drop in
Class from the French 1000g . However, what worrys me is that Channon
recently said He had great problems keeping her Sound and felt she was "
best at 7f or a mile " so this race over 6f after a 91 day abscence may not
see her in ideal circumstances much as she could be a Classy filly ". She
flew at the death and nearly beat Palace Affair a sprint specialist. She
would have destroyed him at 7 furlongs and this trip will sort her out IF
Shes kept sound. KELSEY ROSE stayed this trip last time when she was our
BBOD at 13/2. She came 2nd to Half Glance but had plenty of weight and I
dont like her enough here . DUSTY ANSWER Makes limited appeal . Shes never
ran anywhere near fast as the rest, shes had an abscence of several weeks
and shes dropping back in trip which seems a strange move. She also ran
badly at Goodwood last time and is described by Timeform as having "little
scope " , being "highly strung" and they also say "we have probably seen
the best of her already" and shes another certain market drifter . PURPLE
HAZE is very talented but very headstrong and the preliminaries are crucial
to her. She can missbehave and on a hot day, she needs carefull watching in
the paddock. She could run very well, you could say she didnt get the mile
at Ascot last time, but i know that Butlers feel she is better on soft
ground and felt she only got away with winning on Good to Firm at
leicester, and she may not handle the ground today or the preliminaries on
a potentially hot day. ROUNDTREE Looks exposed and isnt progressing
swishes her tail and looks far from keen.

Conclusion= I,m Not sure shes great Value at 2/1, and You cant be sure this
track wont hurt her chance, but LIPSTICK ran brilliantly last time in the
face of circumstances against her and I could not come close to fancying
anything to beat her . A 100% PURPLE HAZE on "best behaviour" would be the
danger . I Cant bet LIPSTICK Myself at 2/1 is she is unsound and has had
training problems and is always capable of flopping and with the 2/1 there
is no margin for error .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Goodwood 5.35 FOSS WAY is the percentage Call here .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

ANTE POST NEWS

1) Stewards Cup Update for Saturday

I Just want to Refresh everyones memory about the "autumn target " , To
Nail the Stewards Cup Winner . We Now Have a small £50 Bet *(ante post) on
Trace Clip at 20/1 and we have not finished our betting in the race yet by
any means. The Draw is of significance importance and we will have to stake
the "big guns " when, and only when we know the Draw. What has Amazed me
this year is How Wrong Bookmakers have got the race wrong in the ante post
lists . I still cant understand it. They MUST Have done absolutely NO
Research in this race and I really think we are possibly the only people
aware of how damaging certain Statistics are. I,ll just remind you of a
couple, and when you look at How the Betting is Going you will see a major
"Hole" in the betting and how its completely topsy turvy and full of value.
I Want to just talk about a few horses quickly and update on the race . The
Following list are a mixture of factors and Horses that need keeping on top
of this week.

Feet So Fast 10/1 Border Subject 10/1 Trace Clip 20/1 Doctor Spin 20/1
Hurricane Floyd 20/1 Halmahera 20/1 Tom Tun 20/1 My American Beauty 25/1
Awake 25/1 Watching 25/1 Peruvian Chief 25/1 Manorbier 25/1 Bond Boy 25/1
Salviati 25/1 Vanderlin 25/1 Palace Affair 25/1 Scottys Future 25/1 -
others 28/1 or more

FEET SO FAST Has to try and defy History. The 3 year olds simply cant win
the Stewards Cup unless they are champion sprinters elect like Danehurst
was. Their record is deplorable and I would be very surprised to see one
Good enough to win. The record is ... 3 year olds = 1 from 56 runners with
4 placed and I can only see this drifting in the betting or not running at
all. BORDER SUBJECT Is going to be the Steamer of the race. This is 8/1
Best Priced but 7/1 and 6/1 in places. IF You take the 8/1 you have got a
price that wont be seen on saturday anywhere unless its given a very bad
draw. With a High Draw this could start 9/2 favourite. I Think the horse
Has a decent chance, and I respect it, they are saying its a "group" horse,
but to win it
a) Needs to be lucky with the draw b) Has to defy a weight carrying record
as it comes from the section of the weights that winners rarely come from.
In fact BORDER SUBJECT Will have top weight when the weights go up this
week . I,m also concerned that this horse is a "small field " Horse. In
races with 12 Runners or Less his record is W W 2 W W Yet when he races in
fields of Over 13 runners His record is, 2 -23-6-21-W-21-9-6 , and its
also interesting that the 2 times He has ran well in Big Fields, ( win and
second) there were HUGE Draw biases and the Fields split and the races both
rode like small field races and he had the Rail to help. He would need to
be drawn very high to have any chance for me, but I am caustious as this
WILL Steam and if you did bet the horse at 8/1 then you would be able to
lay it back. I will NOT Be betting this horse in my "ante post" portfolio
, but If You did I dont think you,d be stuck with an unwanted bet if you
did. TRACE CLIP is still a strong fancy for me. I Would have liked to see
TRACE CLIP Shorter in the betting but hes ran well since we backed him and
is still prominant in all lists.

I was also very interested in, and was very close to advising a 3rd Bet
in the race , on HURRICANE FLOYD Who has an excellent profile as well , and
that 20/1 will go. I,m certain this was not "off " last time over 7f, a
trip hes not effective over, and I think This horse has a serious chance.
The Weather is the big issue though and I need to keep an eye on that very
carefully . I Think we are in Very good shape this year and at the moment
there isnt much I would Change before Saturday . We need to see the Draw
and the Weather Forecast next before we can do anything heavy .

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
ACCOUNT

Account Bets= -6.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 50.84
Best E/W Double= + 3.11
Negatives =136 Successful from 153 (88.88%)
Ante Post Account= £1600