Saturday October 19th

The Best Bet of The Day

NO BET


Not the greatest of cards tonight , still very much "pre-season" and mixed
up with the Flat runners . I,m pretty tired and likely to give the meeting
a miss myself but I will be having a bet on CASTANET in the 8.00 pm at 9/1
. It doesnt appear too fancied on the exchanges , which does not bother me
at all , and I accept it could run badly , and it May not be comfortable
viewing if she runs in snatches again , But I wouldnt be mentioning her
unless I fancied her and my money is on her , and I think she has a secret
weapon thats yet to be seen, and this trip will bring it out tonight . Shes
too risky for a BBOD Though but i,d have her in at half her price at best .


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Yesterdays Summary

What an issue filled Day . I am thinking aloud as I type this reflecting
on the Events of Yesterday . ALERON was a staying on 6th in the race . Its
a waste of time debating whether it was "Off" or not , either way is
perfectly plausible given the jockey learnt his craft with the Ramsdens . I
think it wasnt busy myself , but others might Disagree and we,ll never
know . There are many ways of looking at why it came 6th , he did give it a
lot to do , maybe the trip was an issue , the rain , any number of factors
. It was naturally a dissapointment to those that took the 14/1 , and a
great delight to the saner people who waited and decided not to Bet the
animal . The market moves yesterday really annoyed me . I can see both
sides of the argument, but You were simply betting against yourselves
asking for 7/1 about the horse . There has to be a right way of doing this
. I cant go for a 15mins callback as the E Mail system is unreliable , the
phone calls dont help everyone and I just get Hate Mail when I pull people
back for a call back . One of the things that is crossing my mind is that
When I asked for resubscriptions last year , there were naturally a lot of
people who dropped out of the service . A Year is a long time to commit and
natural wastage is always high , and i,ve seen a gradual reduction in
service numbers mainly due to my "Never Advertise" Policy , and to be
truthfull I Hope the same thing happens this year and several of the more
excitable clients Leave. There is no honour in this game at times. I
Really belive you cant play games with people who can hurt you and Mr Liles
could easily have hurt us yesterday and probably did .This game is all
about those who Pay the Piper calling the Tunes , and we were in the hands
of a man who had a vested interest in the horse. We are all greedy in this
game and we dont always do the sensible thing in Chasing the Buck . The
other problem is that some people have been with me years , and Know its a
value for money service, Know weve had a great year , and know that when
i,m betting in the 5/1 - 14/1 range that I cant be beaten over a long
course of bets , so they are subsequently staking larger bets as they have
now develloped confidence in the service , and the Mickey Mouse firms cant
cope with the weight of money .Not all Bets will win of course but You can
see the integrity in the DRV and why these are not "guesses " . These are
partly reasons why I have decided to finish at the end of next year . The
Costs of the service can be paid through 1 winner for most people , and the
General feeling is that your almost a certainty to win money over the year
so people bet at full capacity . I cant blame them for that . For Future
reference , IF You ever feel that a horse isnt going to be "off" , you can
always lay them Place only on Betfair . There is no advantage at all in
being placed , and you never seee non tryers beaten a short distance . The
game with ALERON in Hindsight Was betting it to win and Laying it place
only as you then have a free cover IF The horse is cheated with . That is
good advice I think . He goes straight to the Top of my notebook . I,m
behind with E Mail replies as I Had to get out for a couple of hours to
Clear my head . Finally , the answer to Most peoples questions from the
Feedback i.ve had . How Did I play it ? Well I did the honourable thing
and did not pinch the 14/1 , I waited , and Late doors I went with a
Spread Bet Where I heavily bought Robert Winstons performance index . I
took my Medicine after the race and took the loss , which hurt , but I
stopped betting then and had no further interests on the day . A Friend
rang me ( He,d done the same as me ) after racing and told me Winston had
Won the last 2 races at 10/1 and 7/1. Had i just left the Bet I would have
had a massive bet on a 44/1 winner . After that I Felt quite poorly .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Todays Racing


Wolverhampton 7.30

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Baytown Flyer, 11/4 Livy, 7/1 Rockspur, 8/1 Pertemps
Bianca, 10/1 Glenviews Polly, Tommy Nutter, 11/1 Tirailleur, 14/1
Countrywide Dancer, 16/1 Schematic, 20/1 Glanbehy, 25/1 Captain Hardy, 33/1
Hengrove, 66/1 Mystery Pips.

LIVY, TOMMY NUTTER and COUNTRYWIDE DANCER Have just ran in the same race
on Oct 5th over 5furlongs and now race against each other over 6f . I would
say, that from Video Analysis that TOMMY NUTTER Would be far better suited
by the extra furlong and would have won in another 20 yards last time, but
he is 10lbs worse off at the weights from LIVY Which complicates things and
takes away a fair ammount of the advantage . I would say that COUNTRYWIDE
DANCER Has a decent chance as he missed the break last time and ran very
wide and this trip will help and at 14/1 hes marginally overpriced and
could run a lot better tonight . BAYTOWN FLYER Met ROCKSPUR In their battle
15 Days ago on Grass at Lingfield, and
Won cosily . ROCKSPURS,s chance of reversing that form comes from the fact
that it looked to have a bad draw at Lingfield, and she gets 2lbs in weight
, but BAYTOWN FLYER Did win with a bit in hand and is better Bred for this
surface tonight and should beat her again . GLENVIEWS POLLY Has a chance
but this is a sharper test and his figures dont entitle him to the benefit
of the doubt . I Cant fancy PERTEMPS BIANCA Without a gamble on the horse
. The track may be faster than he wants anyway . I Think the Value is
probably Either GLENVIEWS POLLY Or TOMMY NUTTER with BAYTOWN FLYER the
big danger to either . Perhaps 2 small win bets at 8/1 and 10/1 (which
coverts to 4/1 either


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Wolverhampton 8.00

Betting Forecast: 4/1 Flying Romance, 9/2 Appleacre, Starry Mary, 5/1
Comtesse Noire, 7/1 Lilardo, 8/1 Geri Roulette, 9/1 Castanet, 10/1 Silent
Memory, 14/1 Raise A Melody, 25/1 Little Robs' Girl, 40/1 Ambitious Annie,
100/1 Copcourt Royale.

I Dont fancy LILARDO much here , this is a marked step up in class and
there is no saying this will be far enough for her .. I,m against GERI
ROULETTE as well, the absence concerns me, as does the draw , and the size
of the field and quality of the race .COMTESSE NOIR Needs to improve
markedly on her 1st Sand start but theres no guarantee she will and shes 0
from 14 so far and had beena a beaten Fav 3 times .STARY MARY Is far too
short at 5/1 for a horse thats cut no ice here before and from a stable
that hasnt had a winner in months . . APPLEACRE is the best horse in this
race but not for me . Shes GOT To be held up to get this trip, which means
from a low draw she,ll probably be shuffled to the back on her sand debut
and face kickback whilst she atempts to conceded weight to the whole field
and older horses. If she gets a dream run shes bred to take a hand here and
could win , but I doubt it . FLYING ROMANCE Hasn,t been running to well ,
and she comes from a stable winnerless in months and that has to be a
worry, and his trainer was saying recently that his string were not at
their best at the moment . SILENT MEMORY Has an excellent chance on pieces
of form but still comes from a stable that have never trained a winner ,
and having been Downgraded from Neville Callaghan to Russ Willman and now
having his 1st start for a winnerless trainer he hardly fits the profile
neded and to me it suggests its not going to progress at all .

CASTANET is a horse that I cant be that confident over . but I have to give
her the benefit of the doubt as this race will be won by a horse thats
about to improve and show far more than it has done . This is a Highclere
Thouroughbreds horse and they dont keep bad horses at this stage of their 3
year old careers and Michael Stoute trained this last year when t
dissapointed twice . There was a good excuse as Stoute said she,d been" in
season " on her 2nd start . Wilie Haggis took the reigns and now rains her
. She was entitled to need her 3rd start after a years abscence and last
time she ran 6th at Wolverhampton . To be honest she did run in snatches
that day, but she was running on again at the finish and this step up to 12
furlongs from 8 furlongs is in line with her pedigree , out of Persian Bold
. This may well be what she is crying out for . Shes Trained by a Derby
winning trainer , Owned by one of the most powefull owners, has done "Less"
wrong than almost anything else has up to now , Shes a half sister to a
decent horse in Priors Lodge and Haggis recently said she,d taken a long
time to come to hand this year . Her chance comes with the 4f step up in
trip and at 9/1 I,d give her the vote , not that it would surprise me if
she ran badly again .

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Wolverhampton 8.30

Betting Forecast: 4/5 Miss Brooks, 15/8 King David, 12/1 Santa Catalina,
14/1 Smithy, 16/1 Only For Sue, 25/1 Our Wol, 33/1 Hamunaptra, Mairi's
Wedding, Sharp Decision, Zarzella, 66/1 Welcome Exchange, 100/1 Dark
Storm.

I Think MISS BROOKS is a good thing . Shes done nothing wrong and I dont
mind siding with a filly against a colt as Fillys have won 3 of the 5
renewals of this race , and connections will be desperate fo a win with her
. Shes from a top stable and clocked and ran well on her debut . The 3rd
and 4th won soon afterwards and last time at Nottingham she met a very good
horse , and raced on ground far too fast for her that day . Shes unraced on
sand but her sire has an impressive strike rate from several runners . She
should outclass these . KINGS DAVID Does have a chance , but I do prefer
the filly , but races like this all come down to the market . If MISS
BROOKS Was put in at a ridiculously short price then it could pay to go
with KING DAVID Each way at about 3/1 . I Think i,ll probably leave the
race but Evens is a big price about the favourite .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wolverhampton 9.00

Betting Forecast: 11/8 Inca Moon, 4/1 Queen's Gift, 11/2 Fittleworth, 6/1
Key Oneothree, 10/1 Discoed, 16/1 Countess Elton, Fortuna Mea, 25/1
Wayward Lass, 33/1 Freeholder, Princess Tavery, River Angel, 50/1
Middlemiss, 66/1 My Sweetheart.


I Dont like much here , its a case of the least risky bet for your money
and judging the market i,d have to say That the best bet here must be
QUEENS GIFT Each way at about 4/1 . She may not win but surely she cant be
far away . Watch the market . Dont play heavily but she should be Fine here
and fitness will be a big edge for her , and whilst INCA MOON
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Wolverhampton 9.30

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Keen Hands, 5/1 Don Fayruz, 13/2 Saafend Rocket, 8/1
Easter Ogil, Madame Maxi, 10/1 Greenaway Bay, 12/1 On Guard, Summer
Stock, 14/1 Prince Prospect, 16/1 Halland Park Lad, Livius, Weetman's
Weigh, 25/1 Te Quiero.


My "Negatives " are EASTER OGIL , DON FAYRUZ , GREENAWAY BAY , HALLAND PARK
GIRL and SUMMER STOCK Here mainly because of the Draw . I Like MADAME MAXI
, ON GUARD ( Trips a bit short though ) and KEEN HANDS ( 7 Times winner in
better grade) . I Think the dropping Handicap mark of MADAME MAXI at 8/1
would be my pick, but shes capable of flopping as well, which is a risk .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Account
Account Bets= -6.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 65.30
Ante Post Account= £1500
Stats This Season
Number of Bets = 123
Number of Winners= 42
Number of Placed = 11
Number of Losers = 70
Strike Rate = 37.49 %
£1 Level Staks Profit + £65.30