Tuesday September 18th

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The Best Bet of The Day

NO BET

Just want to "Test" My Form today. I Fancy 5 horses today, they are also in
the "positives-Almosts" section Below and there are also a few negatives.

Southwell 3.40 Branston Nell 7/1
Salisbury 5.00 Alafzar 7/1
Yarmouth 4.20 Dudleys Delight 4/1
Yarmouth 5.20 Madeline Basset 5/2
Yarmouth 5.20 Spymaster 20/1

There are a few reasons why None of the 5 I like are BBOD,s but How they
run will tell me what level of form i,m in . In terms of where each"
Positive " and Where I Think they will finish, I would predict the
Following. I Expect BRANSTON NELL To probably find this too much for her
and get beaten. I think she will Win or Flop and shes a good lay "place
only " . I Think ALAFZAR will run a big race and its chance depends on
traffic surrounding his draw . DUDLEYS DELIGHT Will finish well, probably
do her best to lose the race , but If she copes with the ground she could
outclass them and win. MADELINE BASSET Will finish like a train and either
Win or look unlucky in being placed and SPYMASTER Will either run the race
of a 20/1 chance or come and steal this late and shock everyone except me.


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Recent Recap

Last Week was a Dissapointing Week in the end with Just 4 Bets and One
winner at 3/1 making a 1 Point Loss. HECTORS GIRL Won well to start the
week off superbly, but we then suffered 3 losers with The Tatling at 16/1 ,
Fool on the Hill at 6/1 and Balikheri at 6/1 . Ive already looked at The
Tatling on earlier messages, but FOOL ON THE HILL wasnt a Bet that bothered
me. I felt I had made an outstanding case for the horse and I felt 6/1 was
unbelievable value. When you are in red hot form, these horses win, but
when you have gone a little off the Boil, they are the type of bets that
find "one too good " for them and they get beaten. At 6/1 its a tall order
getting any of them to win, but the fact FOOL ON THE HILL Ran 2nd at 6/1
tells me that I was not far wide of the mark and perhaps a little unlucky
to meet a horse that Beat us at 20/1 having not raced in months . Thats the
essence of racing and what you have to contend with and as a Bet I was
pretty happy and relaxed about Fool On The Hill . The St Leger was a
disssapointment but I honestly have not seen in yet. I Heard the Commentary
on the phone, and I spoke to a friend who told me only 2 things. He told me
that Attheraces presenter Peter Naughton, an ex trainer himself, said
Balikheri was "undercooked " and Not Fit on saturday, carrying condition
and looking as If he had not had a proper preperation. That sounds
unbelievable to me with Stoute in a Group 1 race. The other excuse was that
He found the Ground too Fast which I think is nonsense , having Won on Very
Fast ground twice and All his Breeding Stats are heavily biased towards a
fast ground preference. The Jurys out for me on what happened, but it shows
that a Bet that looked fabulous at Breakfast can look Pretty sour at
Teatime.

The Brief here is Simple. We have had a fabulous run . Last week we stood
at + £68.57 and Now we stand at + £67.57 to £1 Levels at SP. We are
entering the LAST 8 Weeks of the Flat Season . This is often the Hardest
and we need to be carefull . WE have less choice for starters and things
happen at this time of year , as they did in Fool on The Hills race. The
Brief is simply NOT To loose money and i,m treading very carefully now for
a few weeks as I badly want to beat the game at this time of year and miss
the traps and pitfalls. We,ll bet when its right to do so and Not when They
want us to bet and That will see us right and further in front . You need
to be patient at the moment and disciplined. The Strong bets will come but
they need to be very carefully targetted and nothing can be left to chance.
This week will hopefully allow us 2-3 BBOD,s that can show profit for us.


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TODAYS RACING

POSITIVES//ALMOSTS

Southwell 3.40 = BRANSTON NELL at 7/1 was a horse I looked at , and I
liked its improving Speed profile and the certainty that it would improve
at this trip and comes from a stable flying and back to form. The video of
her last start suggests more is in the locker . The reservations that led
to "no" was the fact she was a Filly, Unproven and unraced on Fibresand,
not particularly bred for it and entered in a seller later in the week .
Another reason for Not getting involved was the real strength in depth
here. I Liked POP GUN at 16/1, KHAYSAR at 14/1 and REMINISCENT at 14/1 had
a chance as well. Overall it was interesting but too competetive . I Want a
horse I " KNOW " Will run its best race and BRANSTON NELL Doesnt give me
that certain confidence that she will run her best .

Salisbury 5.00 = ALAFZAR Made serious appeal at 7/1 . In MM 948 a few days
ago I fancied him strongly to win when he was a 6/4 chance but he
dissapointed. The Most likely reason was that He had 3 races in short
sucecssion and he was raced quickly before he went up in the weights. Thats
possibly accurate, but nobody knows, and at 7/1 hes a big price and should
not be bigger in the market than TRIBAL PRINCE who is by no means certain
to repeat his last run. The Reason he is not a strong suggetsion is the
Uncertainty that He WILL Run his race and many of his rivals are better
drawn .There is also a lot of strength in depth here and the Draw could be
an issue as usually high numbers are favoured yet at the last meeting they
came down the stands side and low came out on top .


Yarmouth 4.20 DUDLEYS DELIGHT is a horse I have been waiting for. I Fancied
her a bit at Lingfield two starts ago when Topweight in a 0-60 Handicap
over an inadequate 6f trip and she came a decent 4th at 10/1 running on
strongly . She then flopped at Wolverhampton, but that was her first start
on sand and she was a 3 year old filly against older experienced colts and
I couldnt give her much hope there. She now moves Up a furlong on a really
fair track and she is VERY Well in at the weights. Had the ground had a bit
of juice then i,d be very confident. She probably is better with give but
she should be fine today as long as its only G-Firm . Back against her own
age group , this could the race that is perfect for her . My lack of
enthusiasm to give her a BBOD Tag is also tempered by the fact Dundonald
looks likely to run his best race today and nobody yet knows how good that
is, and Tuscarora has a decent chance at the weights but has 2 ways of
running .


Yarmouth 5.20 MADELINE BASSET was a horse that interested me a lot after
having nothing go right recently at Sandown, and hated the ground at
Hamilton the time before. She has been given a patient season and Butler
has been waiting for her to come "Right" and now he steps her up in trip to
11f the time could be right to catch her as she does drop in class as well.
The reservations I have revolve around her being a horse that can be
"fussy" and she does not need much to go wrong before she gets a bit
bothered despite her talent, and the fact the Post have "napped " her adds
great pressure on her price of 7/2 which will probably be 5/2 at SP. She
finished like a train last time and having been held up at the back at
sandown and forced to switch she was never going to have conditions to
suit . If she runs like that again she ought to win this easier race .I
Think shes the most likely winner and the best horse in the race but that
doesnt mean that her chance has not been reflected in her price .


Yarmouth 5.20 SPYMASTER is another horse that I like immensely at 20/1 . I
Fancied this strongly last time, and made the right decision that I could
not
Tip the Horse as there was heavy rain forecast ( which I knew would not
suit ) and the horse came nowhere. This is a slightly harder race today ,
but the things I like about him are a) A Smaller field b) Hes 20/1 today
and not 4/1 that he was last time c) He is very well handicaped. I Know he
runs against MADELINE BASSET But this is a very big price and Had I not
been questioning my form I may have gone with this as BBOD. This is what I
Wrote last time about Him .......... " SPYMASTER is a well bred Maiden who
was unraced till he was aged 4 . As a 4 year old He was placed in Dubai and
came to England this year and was trained by E J O Neill . I Think they
paid £22,000 for Him . His British debut was garbage when tailing off last,
but his latest race was good enough to win this. He raced in a Brighton
0-70 , and appeared all at sea on the track. He was a 20/1 chance and drawn
18 of 18 and was dropped in before making tremendous ground inside the
final furlong having struggled to go the pace. He would have won in
another few yards and there must be no end of improvement at this distance
which is 3 furlongs further. His Trainer won a Lingfield staying maiden the
other day with Prospects of Glory at 20/1 who is an indentical type in so
far as hes been ex-Dubai owned and trained and Bred in the purple. A
Godolphin cast off , and what price He works with SPYMASTER ? The Time of
SPYMASTERS Race was decent for the grade, there was no fluke about the run
and That puts him in here as the likely winner and the One Horse capable of
considerably better than hes shown so far " . Back on Fast ground, off
only "49" in the Handicap , he could shock a few people today and this is
certainly worth £5 at 20/1 , But I dont want it as a BBOD as it may be a
bit too speculative, and I do prefer Top Weights rather than bottom weights
and the average winning weight in these types of races are over 9st and
there is a Class issue that explains that . I Have backed it at 20/1 and
if you waited you,d get better on the exchanges.

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NEGATIVES

Southwell 1.40 HAVOC ( Downgraded stables)
Southwell 1.40 WISE TALE ( Downgraded stables)
Southwell 2.10 LEGALITY ( Form not close to being Good enough)
Southwell 2.10 FANTASTICO ( Possibly needs further, Unproven on surface ,
Doesnt appeal despite excellent trainer stats in these circumstances)
Southwell 2.10 WASTED TALENT ( Modest , Attitude problems , General Form
below level required )
Southwell 2.40 SUMMER WINE ( Yes of course it should win, but odds on, a
Filly, and Very Bad Breeding Stats 1st time on Fibresand)
Southwell 3.40 THUNDER CANYON ( Unproven on Fibresand and Not ideally Bred)
Southwell 3.40 ONEFOURSEVEN ( Doesnt look Good enough)
Southwell 3.40 BELLE ROUGE ( May not be as in form as it looks)
Southwell 3.40 DAUNTED (Collateral form suggests this wont be good enough)
Southwell 4.40 LOCOMOTIVE ( Form not strong and up in class)
Yarmouth 2.20 ZINGARI ( Cheap,Small ,not as scopey as many )
Yarmouth 4.50 CUNIS ( Lack of entries, training problems, strong
opposition)
Yarmouth 4.50 SUNDRENCHED ( Ground may be too fast)
Yarmouth 5.20 SARIN ( Form some way behind many of these)
Yarmouth 5.20 ROBBIE CAN CAN ( Maiden whose form looks inferior)
Yarmouth 5.20 SKY QUEST ( Only ever won a 0-65 and this looks warm)
Salisbury 5.00 TRIBAL PRINCE (Inconsistent and Far from certain to run its
race)

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ACCOUNT

Account Bets= -6.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 67.57
Best E/W Double= + 3.11
Negatives =142 Successful from 161(88.19%)
Ante Post Account= £1500