Saturday June 1st

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ACCOUNT BETS

No Account Bet


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The Best Bet of The Day

Going with 1 piece of information today

Doncaster 3.15 WADMAAN

Ive had this from two good sources. Al Moulatham is fancied to win the
listed race for Godolphin tonight at Newmarket . This is only a conditions
race and lats week, in preperation for this race WADMAAN Worked far better
than Al Moulatham and has beaten it in fast work at Newmarket convincingly
and I,ve been told that the horse Will win on its debut today. I,m not a
great fan of first time out maidens, but i,m making an exception here as
the news was so strong, Godolphin can be trusted and the race conditions
are right. WADMAAN gets a 3lbs allowance for being unraced and faces 4
horses who are all penalised for winning. GALLANT BOY is said to be usefull
but "nothing special ", Dunlops ZAAJEL wont win as his 3 year olds are his
worst crop ever, JUDGEMENT Dissapointed last time and is very beatable and
LEOS LUCKYMAN Has a problem and seems highly strung. WADMAAN is strongly
fancied , and again, like yesterday, its account bet strength but I,ll
resist the temptation as its going to be a short priced Horse. This is my
only bet on a day where sorting the Wheat from the Chaff is very hard with
so many short priced attractive looking animals.
This will be about 11/8 or 6/4 today , but will be heavily backed and may
even return at odds on . Live on Channel 4 .

There is NO Daily Race View Today in the Message .

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Summer Magazine

I Am getting behind with the Next Magazine and I Think that I was far too
ambitious to say that It would be ready by Derby Day, and I dont want to
compromise Quality just to rush out a poor effort . What I will do is just
take a few weeks longer over it and make sure I Get it accurate,
interesting and topical. I Want to do a set of interviews with certain
internet racing professionals that I either Hate or Respect , that are
controversial and interesting. I Have already done an interview which WAS
To have gone in the magazine . However, Bearing in mind that some of the
questions are topical and relevant now, I think its better to take this
"out " of the forthcoming magazine and Add to todays Message . At the
Bottom of this Mail will be Highlights of a recent Q+A Session I had with
an internet racing professional , who I have to say has interested me For a
very long time as a controversial, interesting and highly talented person
who can teach us all new things in the quest for knowledge about the great
game . Thats later in the message, and I will also do my best to get the
next magazine out whenever I can . and that will include hopefully another
interview. Hope you find it as interesting as I did and Feedback would be
appreciated , as would any further questions , any ideas of who you would
like to eb interviewed in the future .

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YESTERDAYS SUMMARY

I Suppose you judge a "Tip " by whether it wins or loses you money. I Judge
myself by different standards. Yesterdays BBOD Was a fast finishing 3rd,
beaten less than Half a length at 4/1, with a distance back to the 4th and
the each way money very safe. In a few more strides we may have won and had
a nice price winner, but we,d have had to drop Dead to have Lost on the
Race, and I was delighted by the Bet, the Run, and the Horse, and as I
said yesterday, It didnt really matter whether it was a Bet or a BBOD .
They were " at it " on Betfair again wih the Unraced Cecil horse Far
Removed, This was NOT Fancied yesterday and ran like a horse Not fancied.
You couldnt have fancied a selkirk filly on that ground anyway , but on
Betfair the same trader was " creating " the impression that Thousands
Had been punted on the horse at Evens . Perhaps it was someone trying to
get a price about Sharzan House !!! I,m also very pleased with the +
25.79 points profit to level stakes with the BBODs as well, and I,m in
total awe of what we have next week in the game with the Derby, Oaks,
Boxing and Football . France were the menaces , thats how not to get a free
bet . Early Days yet though and I feel they will be Ok .

Read with Great Interest the Jamie Osborne feature in the post about
"laying his own horses on Betfair " and the stench that has brought to his
reputation after his confrontation with "Kenyon Confronts " . I Cant help
feeling that the bloke hasnt done much wrong , Hes just taken advantage of
a Legal Loophole and If You want to castigate him for running horses over
trips they cant win over , Then If you gave me 6 hours I could give you
100 horses From Stoute, Cecil, Dunlop, Gosden and several more that do the
same thing every year countless Times. Hes just making money from it as
many more trainers do as well . The games rife with things like this and
always has been . Whatever happens, the Panorama program will Miss the
target , as Every Program thats ever been about racing, Every Court Case ,
Every Civil Case and Every article written about Racing , Have Failed to
grasp the true eseence of the game as They have been Produced, written ,
Prosecuted and Deliberated by NON Racing People . There was a high court
case recently , I cant remember many details about it , but I remember
the Police categorically refused to belive that a Man could lose £12 grand
Betting in 2 weeks . Non Racing people have NEVER Understood gamblers or
gambling .

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INTERVIEW 1= Steven Manwaring

Steven Manwaring runs the Website " Flatstats " that has been reviewed in
many recent places like the Racing Post. He advocates a statistical
approach to betting. His Website is well worth a Visit, many of you will
know him already and some will be Clients of his as well. He has
interesting, and Forthright Views about Statistics, Tipsters, Racing ,
Punters and is well worth listening to and reading . He kindly let me set
him some questions recently and these are Below .


Recent Interview with Steven Manwaring From WWW.FLATSTATS.CO.UK


Q = Why are you so Critical of "paid for " Tipsters? Is this not like
Tanishing every service with the same Brush, And
Have You ever Subscribed to a Tipster Before, and what were your brief
experiences


A = I have had a lot of experience with them - not as a client I may add,
but
through various contacts over the years.
In the early 90's I did some freelance programming work for a guy in
Newmarket.
Whilst working there, he introduced me to a lot of tipsters. These are the
high
profile guys ranging from inside info from the yard types to systems
peddlers. They were around then, and they are still around now.
One thing I learnt from them is that they have a total disregard for
punters.
They know the confidence tricks. They know how to squeeze every last penny
out of
vulnerable punters. From the day I met them, I had an aversion to tipsters.
Dont get me wrong though. Im not against all tipsters. I know there are a
lot
of hard working guys out there who produce ratings and sell them as tips.
Im
all for this and Ill quite happily praise someone who does good work. It is
right that they should be rewarded. One chap I met whilst working there was
a guy called
Jack Ferens. He used to do the Form ratings for the Sporting Life in the
80s. He taught me a lot of good
stuff and it is these people I really admire. He is in his 70s now but
still
produces ratings for every runner each day. His website displays his tips
and
he never charges a penny for them.
If the dodgy tipsters were the Darth Vaders and the Evil Emperors of the
Galaxy
then Jack was Yoda!
===============================================
Q =Briefly , What are your thoughts on the Derby This Year and based on
your statistics,
what Chance do you Feel HAWK WING Has of staying 12 furlongs at Epsom ?


A= I dont like to analyse a race until the day itself. I much prefer to
wait
until the going, field size, jockey bookings, last time out positions are
all
confirmed. Ive never really liked ante post betting.
One thing I know for sure is that Hawk Wing is going to have a tough time
in
the Derby. He really must be some kind of super horse if he is going to win
over 12f as the stats are against him. Even though Sire Woodman has had
some
success at Epsom (currently 3 wins from 20), the 12f stat for all courses
is
really dire. At that distance Woodman has only ever had 4 wins from 128
attempts. This is a strike rate of just over 3%. If you dig deeper and look
at
his record at 12f in Group races and Class A to Class C youll see that he
just
cant cut the mustard. Just 1 win from 39 attempts and that 1 win was in a
field of just 4 runners.
This 12f stat is too strongly against him. Im hoping that hell be really
hyped up and backed down to a silly price. If I can see 1 or 2 that
definitely
have a chance on the day Ill back them to win and lay Hawk Wing.

===============================================
Q =Whats the Best and Worst Bet , youve had this year, and Why ?

A = This year, probably Saturday 25th of May. I backed Just James at 50.0
on
Betfair, but lost the lot laying Green Line. Its just one of lifes ironies.
I
win a few quid on a 50/1 shot and then lose it all opposing a hot
favourite.

===============================================
Q =What are your weaknesses and strengths as a Gambler ?

A= I have a weakness of being too greedy and going for the big payouts. If
I fancy
3 horses, Im always tempted to find another so that I can place a Yankee
bet.
Im always looking out for big accumulators whereas I know that in the short
term, Id be better off sticking with win singles.
Multiple bets are not bad things, it is just that to hit the really big
payoffs
you have to have a lot of patience and it can be demoralising.
My strengths are knowing that in the long run they will pay off. I hang on
in
there and never give up hope.


===============================================
Q =Who do you bet with and why ?

A = I look at various sources to try and get the best prices. The
exchanges are
excellent places for finding value on outsiders. Traditional bookies always
cramp the odds on long shots, whereas there are usually a few brave layers
who
will offer you some big prices. This is because accountants run the bookies
now
and they limit their risks. On the exchanges you can exploit punter biases
and
flaws. I like to use betatbet as they offer some good bonuses. Lucky 15
bets are often
seen as mug bets but they are offering triple the odds for just 1 winner.
If
you select four 5-1 shots then you only need 1 winner and you get your
money
back. I still much prefer the experience of going into local bookies
though. There is
no greater feeling than going in, writing out a ticket, placing the bet and
calling back later in the afternoon to pick up a brown envelope stuffed
full of
£20s.
===============================================
Q = My Perception of " Flatstats " is that You would lose a large
percentage of possible subscribers , as people are Lazy, Or People are at
Work, or Looking after Families, and Dont have the Time, or confidence to
use your website and teachings everyday . They would simply prefer "tips"
on a cheap phone rate that identify any systems qualifiers that You may
have that day. Am I Right, and If so, What plans have you got to address
this position ?

A = When I decided to set up the site I thought I would cater for the
thousands of
punters who are fascinated by stats and systems. To be honest, most of my
customers are the real systemites and stats fans. Im not attracting
regular
Joe Punter. Punters just want the answers. They havent got time to analyse
races everyday and I think this is why so many of them use tipping
services.
A lot of customers were asking me to just give them a list of the best
stats of
the day. This is why I have set up the Daily Systems Sheet. Its a list of
horses that are contenders for the systems that I follow, and horses that
have
the most powerful stats that day.
Its proving to be quite popular but it is far from complete. I have a few
more
enhancements such as probing the various betting sites and exchanges for
the
latest prices. This is so that I can also indicate current bets that are
value.
I will also create the facility for punters to enter their own system
parameters and then the site will email them the night before informing
them
that their system has a runner. This is providing a service to the lazy
punter again.
There is nothing more boring than spending an hour going through the
racecard looking for
horses that pass system rules. But my programs do this in seconds. I cant
feed them
enough!

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Q =Systems=You Use many systems . What is Your approach , or attitude to
betting when your systems produce the same horse on the same day. Do You
Double your stakes accordingly ?

A = The problem with systems is that punters back them blindly without
checking the
ability of the contender. Punters dont want to do this though. They just
want
the name of a horse and then back it. What I always do is to try and
confirm a
contenders chances. A horse is selected but the going may not be to his
preference etc. A horse is selected but the hes running over a new trip and
the sire stats says he wont stay. If punters were more selective with this
approach then they would find that their strike rate and profit would
increase.
Too many punters are superstitious. They dont like skipping system bets
because when the do, they always miss a winner.
If I can confirm a contenders chance with another system or strong stats
then I
would consider a maximum bet, but in these situations youll find that the
horse is going to be a hot favourite anway.
===============================================
Q =If someone had a PC , about £1000 to play with, and Less than 6 months
Betting experience,
what would you reccomend on the internet , Or a publication , as Good
value for money and a learning Tool ?

A= Id advise not betting for at least another 6 months. Use the 6 months
to learn
what you can from racing. The Internet offers such a wealth of information
that
if you chose to ignore it you will burn up your money quickly.
I have used the Internet for about 10 years now. Even in the early years
there
was so much information from the US on stuff like Kelly Criterion and
Impact
Values. Stay away from message boards and just read the fine articles and
papers that are available. Most of them are from US experts (such as
Mitchell,
Beyer, etc.) but the theories are identical both sides of the Atlantic.

===============================================
Q =How do you feel about Relay Services

A = I think that the kind of people who use relays want something for
nothing. They
think they are getting a bargain because they are get dozens of tipping
services for the price of one, but the quality is poor.
Tipsters dont mind relays. It gives them free publicity. If a tipster is
doing
badly then he will rubbish the relay saying that the relay is not posting
all
his special bets etc. If a tipster is doing well then he knows that relay
users are going to notice this and mention the fact in message boards.

===============================================
Q = Its early morning, youve just opened your racing post, How do YOU Start
picking your bets that day ?
Does is start the night Before ? Do You have "Rituals " to go through such
as Checking a horses to follow list ?

A = I always check what my racecard scanner programs have identified. If
there are
some good back or lays in there I will go straight to the exchanges to see
if
there are some silly prices to be had.
Next I will go through the racecard myself and look for races where there
are
warm favourites. Ill be looking closely to see if the favourite can be
beaten,
and then Ill try and find the value bet that will beat it.

===============================================
Q =You talk about taking a statistical approach to your betting. To a
layman, what exactly does that mean ?

A = Stats can be easy, boring, useless, or useful. Youll often hear media
pundits
spout boring stats such as 34 favourites have won since the first running
in
1802, or useless ones such as Stoute has a 40% strike rate at a certain
course. On their own they do not mean much. I prefer to use the Impact
Value
and ROI. Basically these will show how strong a certain stat is and how
profitable a
stat is. Everyone knows that Chester has a low draw bias but how profitable
is
it to back low draws there? Are the stats flawed due to small field sizes?
The
ROI and Impact Value show the true picture. They are not easy to understand
at
first but if you do understand them you will find them a lot more useful
than
just plain strike rate.
===============================================
Q = You have long been a supporter and advocat of Systems and a Critic of
Paid for Tipsters .
Can you categorically say that It is impossible for any tipster to show
clients a long term profit ,
and Highly likely that Followers of your systems are Certain to make long
term profits following your systems ??

A = Tipsters can be profitable, but like all punters they are going to hit
good and
bad patches. The smart tipsters will know when they are good and when they
are
bad and adjust their advice accordingly.
What you will find with the sham tipsters is that they have to pick as many
horses as they can each day. This is so that punters can spend half an hour
hanging on the phone clocking up a wealthy profit for the tipster.
The situation is similar to systems. If you can find a system that is
highly
selective and only has a handful of bets each year then your chances of
making
a profit year in year out is more achievable.
If you have a system that selects one horse in every race, and you back
them
all regardless then you are going to have similar success as the tipster
who
tips a horse in every race. Quantity not Quality.

===============================================
Q = How much relevance, If any, do you pay to looking at a particular
meetings results a year ago to the day?

A= I think that there are some owners who like to win the same race each
year. Not
just the big festival races but at the smaller meetings too. This could
coincide with an event that the owner is particularity keen to be seen to
be in
the limelight. Either it is his birthday, or at the same time each year he
entertains certain clients. A nice winner with his horse is sure to impress
his
party!
===============================================
Q = Please put these Racing personalities ( or media columns) , in order of
the respect you have for them,
the significance of their work, and the interest you take in them and their
products................
James Willoughby........Tony Morris ...........Postmark ...............
Nick Mordin ................Topdraw.........Betting Bureau and pricewise

A = Nick Mordin. I have always been a big fan of Mordin but I think his
work has
gone downhill recently. His latest book is a big disappointment. I have to
admire him for his strong views in going against the grain.
Alan Potts. He is always a good read on the GG site and in print. . He
knows that to win in this
game you have to exploit flaws and biases and not do what the sheep are
doing.
Willoughby, Morris. I try to read these guys when I can. They know their
stuff
and can sometimes give a few nuggets of information about draw biases or
breeding stats. Postmark, etc. To be honest I dont read any of them. I
consider them sheep
fodder. The masses out there are going to be backing their selections and
value
is going to be hard to find. I guess they are ok for the punter who wants
to
make a quick selection. He may find winners with them, but in the long run
there is going to be no profit.
===============================================
Q =How "Bent " and "Corrupt " do you feel racing is ? By This, I mean
simply Horses that have
chances of winning are prevented from doing so Deliberately by Trainers or
Jockeys ,
for many reasons like Money, Gambling, Saving them for another day etc etc
?

A = I am concerned about betting exchanges. This is providing an
opportunity for
certain dodgy characters to not want a horse to win. I have spotted many
examples of unusual betting practices on the exchanges (at Lingfield a few
months ago a Seller race attracted 5 times the amount of money than the
televised Class B race earlier in the meeting) and I have spoken to the
Jockey
Club about this. They are saying there is nothing they can do and it is in
the
governments hands to regulate this. They made their concerns know in the
Budd
report and now its up to the government to introduce new rules.
What con men should be aware of though is that on exchanges everything is
logged. If you make a few small bets, and then every so often lay big time
on a
hot favourite then this is going to get flagged up on a warning screen.
Some
exchanges have better security practices than others and I trust some to
have
more reliable logs. But you can be sure. They will be tracked down.
Punters should not worry too much about bent racing. In the early 1900s
racing
was rife with crookedness. Horses would be administered Cocaine and
Heroine.
Jockeys would have their family taken hostage! Back then, legendary gambler
Pittsburgh Phil said:........
There is enough natural inconsistency in horse racing without having it
forced
upon the public by unscrupulous men, yet there is not one-tenth of one
percent,
as much crookedness on the turf as it is given credit for
So if crookedness was rife then, but accounted for only 0.1% of all racing
then today, the amount of crookedness is tiny. There are about 90,000
runners
each year. Once every few years an EPO case appears, a few dozen times a
year
jockeys are done for not riding out. This is tiny compared to 90,000 of all
runners.
Look for defect in your own calculating rather than cheating of others
This is a good point. Far too many punters prefer to blame the game, the
jockey, the trainer, rather than themselves for picking the wrong horse.

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ACCOUNT

Account Bets= -6.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 25.79
Best E/W Double= + 3.11
Negatives =136 Succesful from 153 (88.88%)
Ante Post Account= £1900
Ante Post BBOD High Chapperal 8/1( Derby)......