Thursday April 4th

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Jumps at Liverpool takes centre stage today, this Flat Season is about 2
weeks away from starting properly with the Craven Meeting and the Classic
hopefulls almost coming out, In the meantime we have to sit and suffer and
watch the form slowly settle down in the vain hope that an oppurtunity
arises for us. Were nearly there but not quite.
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The Reccomendations
Account Bets

No Account Bet
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The Best Bet of The Day
Leicester 5.30 (6) PETRUS
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The "Each Way Double " of the Day
Leicester 2.00 El Coto
Leicester 4.00 Dune
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The Strongest " Negatives " of the Day
Leicester 4.30
Izmail+Gold Quest
Leicester 5.00 Greater Glory
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THE EXCHANGE FILES

The Biggest issue of the Day, is How Wrong the going forecast of " Good,
Good to Soft in places " is . Personally I Dont think there will be any
cut at all in the surface and its drying out fast. Its fundamentally
Crucial today to get this right If you want to win, and all we can really
do is Guess at the moment . Keep away from the mudlarks in my opinion.


Leicester 2.15

Betting Forecast: 15/8 El Coto, 3/1 Naughty Girl, 5/1 Cheyenne Dawn, 6/1
Tirailleur, 9/1 Monte Verde, 10/1 Diva Star, 12/1 Iron Lad, 14/1 Willhewiz,
16/1 Capponicus, 25/1 Hill Farm Classic.

The interesting move last night, was an early move, for IRON LAD. Micky
Quinlan doesnt have many winners, or many first time out winners but his
colt IRON LAD attracted money very early lats night. Quinlan usually runs
his best 2 year old in Italy during the summer and this may be the horse he
has plans for . He was entered in a Better Maide tomorrrow as a positive
sign. He clearly has ability . EL COTO Sets the standard as the horse to
beat as hes had a run, and he must go close here with that advantage. Early
signs this season are that the unraced horses can overcome that with any
kind of ability and the race hinges oin whether the talent amongst the
unraced crop is up top much . EL COTO Has ran well , but his form took 2
significant knocks recently and Bryan Mc Mahon Has already said he likes
Soft Ground, and this ground will be a lot faster than it was at Doncaster
and thats a significant issue for me and I cant have him here at a short
price

Market wise, Most , if not all the money is for EL COTO as people only have
one issue to decide. Whether to bet the horse with form and experience or
risk an unraced horse, and when nothing stands out against him they have
nailed their colours to the favourite. Bits and Bobs for others, but the
weakest horses appear to be Cheyenne Dawn and Monte Verde and they must be
"negatives " . There has been good money for the previously mentioned IRON
LAD

Positives=El Coto+Iron Lad
Negatives=Cheyenne Dawn+Monte Verdi
======================
Leicester 2.50

Betting Forecast: 9/2 Wayyak, 11/2 Vermilion Creek, 15/2 Chandler's Secret,
8/1 Faymist, The Mog, 9/1 Skenfrith, Welsh Lady, 11/1 Geespot, Honor's
Lad, 12/1 Sea Top, 14/1 Ewar Victoria, Muldoon, Waylaah, 16/1 Heavenly
Times, 20/1 Marino Wood, Yob, 25/1 Sally Traffic

Theres little money for anything here. These are so bad that its almost
hard to find a favourite, never mind a winner. I cant see anything I like.
WAYYAK has been a Bitterly dissapointing Tool in the last 18 months, and
he takes a big drop down in Class here. Punters appear to be giving him
"one final chance " to show some form, and hes been the horse thats been
the best backed in the race, much as it is to light money . This is a real
Mug race to bet in, with poor quality, 17 runners , and every horse coming
from a bad sand season or a winter layoff . Stay with the jumps rather
than this shoddy race.

Positives=Wayyak ( market)
Negatives= Chadlers Secret

======================
Leicester 3.25

Betting Forecast: Evs Old California, 6/4 L'Evangile, 8/1 Moth Hil, 14/1
Norwood Origo, Team-Mate, 33/1 Thundering Jay-Sea, 50/1 Snow Lark, 66/1
Peak Practice, 100/1 Celtic Ted, 150/1 The Roan Runner

Dont fancy TEAM MATE Here as a 4 year old who was a bag of trouble for
Fanshaw as a 3 year old and has downgraded and wont like the ground on the
fast side. I,d have to stay with the others and that means MOTH HILL. ,
L,EVANGILE, NORWOOD ORIGO and OLD CALIFORNIA. All 4 are unraced this
season. My problem with OLD CALIFORNIA is the ground. He was a really
backward 2 year old and certainly has the look of a soft ground horse and
the ground will be his main problem today. Hes supposedly a real strong and
scopey type . L,EVANGILE was described by John Hills last year as "almost
listed class " , and She ran a great race when 2nd in a listed class
Handicap off "94 " and she sets the standard here . Shes probably badly
handicapped now and will be desperate to win her maiden, and her flaws are
the 5 months lay off shes had with Pulled Muscles and the fact older horse
have to conceed 15lbs to their younger 3 year olds. She wont mind fast
ground though . MOTH HILL is a Dunlop mystery but offers little in the
way of a betting profile other than being the right age . NORWOOD ORIGO
Was a very well regarded Bell juvenile. The Bell horse are running quite
well but seem a couple of gallops short , but they have had winners and
market support for this would be very interesting. He may well be going
down the "handicapping " route.
Selecting between the front 2 is hard, and I Think the ground will decide.
The softer it rides the more i,d be inclined to row in with the Dunlop
horse OLD CALIFORNIA, But the faster the surface would sway me towards
L'EVANGILE.

There are only 2 horses backed, and they are OLD CALIFORNIA , who is
stronger than L,EVANGLE Here. Its lookig like a match with the other horses
ignored in the market . The Ground will be the key though.

Positives=Old California + L,Evangile
Negatives=Moth Hill +Norwood Drigo
======================
Leicester 4.00

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Systematic, 3/1 Budoor, 11/2 Dune, 8/1 Snow Leopard,
10/1 Allinjim, Castle River, Extremist, 11/1 Revelino, 12/1 Just
Serenade, Water King, 16/1 Cayman Lodge, 20/1 Miss Gigi.

Frighteningly hard. The Big Money is for 2 horses. Money has been solid
for SYSTEMATIC After the horse won a maiden at Doncaster . My Own View is
that this may be missplaced. This will be completely different ground
today, he meets some big stable opposition and the time he clocked wasnt
special. I,d not want him at 5/2 at all. The Other factor is the money for
DUNE Who did run a big race when 2nd recently at Kempton, and its easy to
see why that suuport has transpired. Both these have been very well backed
tthe exclusion of everything else. REVELLINO Has been working well
according to the grapevine of secondary information, but as yet has
attracted no money. This looks like being 9/4 Systematic and 11/4 Dune.

Positives= Dune +Systematic
Negatives=Snow Leopard +Allinjim+Castle River+Extremist +Just
Serenade+Water King.
======================
Leicester 4.30
Betting Forecast: 2/1 Pachara, 9/2 Polar Ben, 5/1 Donegal Shore, 6/1
Izmail, 15/2 Gold Guest, 9/1 Goldeva, 14/1 Lady Dominatrix, 16/1 Kelsey
Rose, 20/1 Abercorn.

Little money about. PACHRA and POLAR BEN are "steady" in the market
without being spectacular. DONEGAL SHORE ( excellent profile) is being
backed at far shorter price than his 5/1 quote above, but this has not been
to substantial money as yet. Nothing else appears fancied.

Positives=Donegal Shore
Negatives=Izmail +Gold Guest
======================
Leicester 5.00

Betting Forecast: 15/8 Rasid, 100/30 Greater Glory, 9/2 Scent Of Victory,
13/2 Kaparolo, 9/1 Eastern Breeze, Ocean Star, 12/1 Afeef, Misty Man,
Rose D'Or, Sylva Bounty, 40/1 Squeaky, 50/1 Evelyns Last, Into The Blue,
Leophin Dancer, 66/1 Desire Me, Fight The Feeling, Terimon's Dream, 100/1
Mulsanne

Most interesting is the Weakness behind GREATER GLORY Who is backable at a
far bigger price than 100/30 . There has been good money for the obvious
horse RASID But I sense some very clever support for SCENT OF VICTORY The
unraced Cole horse and i,d keep that on my side.
Positives=Scent of Victory+Rasid
Negatives=Greater Glory+Kaparolo+Eastern Breeze+Aleef

======================
Leicester 5.30

Betting Forecast: 11/2 Native Title, 8/1 Air Mail, Genial Genie, 9/1
Espada, Petrus, 10/1 Great News, 12/1 Kareeb, Pagan Prince, 14/1 Contact,
Laggan Minstrel, Sky Dome, 16/1 Amber Fort, College Rock, 20/1 Dadeland,
El Hamra, Polish Off, 25/1 Grey Imperial, Lucayan Monarch, Toppling,
Ynysmon.

Ive spent a long time here on this race, and was very frustrated by the
Blanshard team, as NATIVE TITLE Looked a real plot to me and I was
expecting 20/1 about him. Just shows you that the booking of Fallon is a
waste of time if you want to protect your price. I Dont know whether this
will be "off " today, but at 11/2 I dont care how fancied it is. NATIVE
TITLE is a really exciting dark horse that has Blanshard purring last year
saying he " has a lot of abilityand has rock solid maiden form . He was
unlucky at Salisbury then he got a bug and we put him away , but hes a very
exciting prospect and wants following very closely " . His price, and
Blanshards seasonal record at this time of year are enough to put me off .

IThink the ground will be on the fast side, and thats puts me off many
here. The "Soft" ground horses I,d be keen to OPPOSE are GREAT NEWS (
Badly H,capped, looks a prep race) , PAGAN PRINCE ( Trainer says best on
soft and he also says he wants 9/10 furlongs as well) and AMBER FORT (
Needs cut according to Bradley) . I also Dont like KAREEB Much either as
I have this as badly handicapped And a hard horse to win with. CONTACT Has
been so dissapointing on sand that this would be his "last chance saloon"
but I cant give him that chance. Hes simply not earnt it and may want soft
ground anyway . POLISH OFF would only be interesting with a market move
and will appreciate the ground. LAGGAN MINSTREL is technically up against
it at the weights. He looked a progressive machime when winning on his
penultimate start, and was unlucky on his last start when badly hampered.
Its veryinteresting that Hannon retains him in his stable this year, but
he is racing in higher Class and an 8lbs higher mark on his debut from when
he last won and I,d be keen to see strong support before I backed him. He
is talented enough to have a long term target in a big handicap and this
may not be His main aim . AIR MAIL Will look a "paper certainy " to many
having just won on sand off "90 " and is allowed to race off his turf mark
here off "60 ". Whilst he looks thrown in, and Fitness and well being are
guaranteed, hes clearly better on sand, and he ran a great string of races
the year before on sand and then switched to turf and flopped many times.
Hes never won on grass before and I,d be comfortable about opposing him
here, much as I would not want to lay him as hes so well handicapped.
TOPPLING Wont win either . SKY DOME Will love the ground but is a very hard
horse to win with . He Has a chance . GENIAL GENIE is handicapped up to
his best, but is at least reliable, running well, at the top of his game
and in with a good shout. ESPADA is a horse i,ve watched closely twice
now. He just hasnt ran well enough yet to fancy. He may have problems, hes
changing stables a lot recently and the ground may find him out today and I
dont think hes ready yet and he has the look of a dissapointing horse here.
I Did look very carefully at the well handicapped EL HAMRA at 20/1 here
and I like his chance a lot at 20/1, but a bad last run, and lack of 7
furlong form trouble me, but I still think he ought to be on the "positives
" list at his price . PETRUS Has to be the selection. Running really well
on sand this year with some big numbers , and races off a far lower mark
today. Yes hes a bit quirky, but he is fast, he loves fast ground and last
year He won first time after switching from sand. I,d look no further than
Him here , with EL HAMRA a value alternative at 20/1 .

Personal Positives+Negatives

Positives= Petrus+ El Hamra
Negatives=Espada+Great News+Pagan Prince+Contact+Amber Fort+Toppling

Market Positives +Negatives

Positives= Air Mail +Kareeb+Contact
Negaives=Genial Genie+Great News+Laggan Minstrel
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Account

Account Bets= + 0.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 20.90
Best E/W Double= +8.55
Negatives = 39 Succesful from 45