Friday October 11th
===================

The Best Bet of The Day

No Bet


Its Raining now at York so that puts the Final Nail in the "No Bet "
coffin.

I Suppose the best way of mirroring my thoughts would be to inform you of
my own bets today . None are of the stake that I would associate with a
typical " Best Bet of the Day " but I have backed Drury Lane ( 30% of my
maximum stake) Calcutta ( 30% ) and The Glen At 16/1 (20%)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Yesterdays Summary

I Think the Negatives were pretty Good yesterday and that seemed to be the
strength of the message. The Positives all ran well but seemed to "Place"
rather than Win , and it shows how hard it is . The people who cant ain
money over the year at racing have to ask themselves whether they are
betting at the wrong times of the year . Its may be a patient wait for the
next oppurtunity , but it will come, but trying to find outstanding bets
at decent prices takes time and if they are not there you cant create them.
Tommorow could be better but today is realy desperate .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Todays Racing


York 2.00

Betting Forecast: 13/8 Rocket Ship, 4/1 Henri Martin, 5/1 Crimson Dancer,
11/2 Newcorp Lad, 6/1 Prince Of Gold, 12/1 Finnforest, 33/1 Morgan The Red.



This race has traditionally produced shocks, but field sizes have also been
a lot higher than todays 7 runners . There has not been a "Favourite "win
this for 7 years . The unraced horses are unknown quanities. Both are bred
to act on Fast ground. Wilie Haggis describes his filly CRIMSON DANCER as
"a half-sister to Miss Brooks. She is a bit backward but is very nice." ,
and being a filly it may pay to look elsewhere . ROCKET SHIP Must be
respected from Roger Charltons especially as He has an entry in the Group 1
Racing Post Trophy . How these unraced horses fare against the experience
of HENRI MARTIN is the key to the race . HENRI MARTIN Has average form, and
could easily win if the newcomers were not up to much but he does look
exposed , may be tempremental and at this time of year i,d want more from a
short priced animal against big stable newcomers with Group1 entries . The
same applies to PRINCE OF GOLD . Its not a race that can be sorted with
assumptions so I cant play , but If ROCKET SHIP Has any ability its not
hard to see him win on his debut . Betfair are strongly suggesting that
Charltons ROCKET SHIP Is expected to win and could be as short as odds on .
I can see the sense in that and he probably will win . He wont be
carrying any of mine though,.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
York 2.30

Betting Forecast: 6/4 Eton, 7/1 Northside Lodge, Stretton, Thesis, 10/1
Tarboush, 12/1 Style Dancer, The Glen, 14/1 Trouble Mountain, 16/1
Parisien Star, 20/1 Donna's Double, Pagan Sky, 25/1 Mcgillycuddy Reeks,
33/1 Ursa Major.


The Better the Racing Post gets, the Harder it is to win money at the Game,
and I Have to give them Full Credit here as they have really done their
homework . In recent runnings of this race the Bottom weights have seemed
to fare better than topweights , with the average winning weight only 8st
10lbs and the Average winning rating a mere" 71" which could put you off
the Top Weights , if you can assume fast ground will mirror recent soft
ground renewals. That point , which seems significant is more than enough
to distort their market and rob the race of any value . They have priced
the race up very well . I Think ETON Will win, but he is a ridiculous price
at 6/4 . THE GLEN Would be the value at 12/1 for me but hes FAR From
certain to figure in the finish and its "No bet " for me .



NOTHSIDELODGE Has been a revelation lately and a credit to Peter Harris and
has a 2 W 5 2 2 4 W 7 W W Record this year .He started the year off "58"
and Won from marks of "58" "66" 69" and "73 " and now faces a career High
Handicap mark of "77" and I fancy that to be too much for him today
especially as hes been on the Go since April and even The previous Febuary
if you count the all weather . He pinched an easy race on sand recently
where they went off too fast and he was the beneficiary , and last time at
Yarmouth he appeared lucky to win . Racereaders stated that
"NORTHSIDE LODGE got a miraculous run through against the far rail " and
Even Peter Harris said after the race that He,d been fortunate. I Know
that twice i,ve said I thought he had too much to do and twice hes proved
me wrong, but hes also a hold up horse on a front runners track and i,m
going for the hat trick in opposing him today in a better race off a 4lbs
higher mark .

STRETTON Was beaten 4 lengths in this race last year and is now on a higher
mark , a mark hes Never won from before. Fallon rides , but hes another
hold up horse, and whilst he cant be ruled out with Maximum confidence, I
cant see why he should be the selection .

TARBOUSH Started on the opening day of the season and now has his 15th race
so hes hardly Fresh . Hes talented though , and hes another that is being
asked to Win off his a handicap mark hes failed from before. He likes to
front run , but Callaghan states that he does "need things his own way"
and it may not help to have a jockey whose never ridden him before. He has
a chance but again I cant see why he would be the selection .

THE GLEN Was a horse we backed in the Drv last time when it won a claimer
at 9/2 easily . This is a lot harder , but hes still got a very big chance
today . Hes off "84" , but he has been raced off "90 " before , and He
moves up in trip which will suit him . THE GLEN is a half brother to Solo
flight and those talented Barry Hills stayers so this may be the makings of
him and hes a horse that had suffered from a good juvenile campaign in the
handicap and Hes bred to improve with Age like all his family .I Dont
think "84 " is harsh for him at all and there is no saying how much
confidence his last win has given him, or how much this trip will improve
him ,and having run well at York before hes overpriced and the Value. I
really fancy this from stall 1 and i,ve been so tempted by the 16/1 that I
cant resist it .

I,m not keen on the 3 year old PAGAN SKY Who lacks experience . THESIS is
probably well handicapped having dropped 12lbs since May , but
he only won a short head last time when he had the run of the race and now
moves from Class E to Class C . TROUBLE MOUNTAIN Loves it here
as well and has a good chance at the weights without screaming off the page
. McGILLYCUDDY REEKS is now an 11 year old but hasnt won since June 2001
and hes now an old man . IF He ever wins in this class again, it will be
today as He was beaten 1 length in this last year off "67" and was 5th in
2000 off "69" and 6th in 1999 off "72 ". His long losing run has dropped
him to only "60" and this is his final chance . His age and recent form
strongly suggest its had its day and I cant bet the animal myself .

I Think ETON Does look the "most likely winner " . ETON has a huge chance
, this track will suit and hes been mopping up in lower class, and is
12lbs well in on future handicap ratings . His last race strongly suggested
that more was to come and the fact Dandys lad rides rather than Clare Roach
will be a sigh of relief for takers of that 6/4 . Win Lose or Draw, there
are Better 6/4 shots every week of the year and I cant play at that price.


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
York 3.00

Betting Forecast: 11/8 Drury Lane, 4/1 Aegean Magic, 9/2 Blue Venture, 11/2
My Daisychain, 16/1 Sambucan Daze, Shares, 25/1 Aboustar, Glory Girl,
33/1 Woolloomooloo Bay.


DRURY LANE Started her career as 2nd string to a stablemate ( All Nines) at
Doncaster in July when down the field. He then improve a lot to be 3rd in
a Hot maiden after a 10 week lay off . The Winner ( Marching band) went on
and won a Class C Conditions race next time, the 4th ( Donazetti) won a
maiden by 5 lengths on his next start, and thats decent maiden form .

I,m really surprised that MY DAISYCHAIN is running again on fast ground
over 6 furlongs . This is on my private Horses to Follow List . I had a
phone call telling me She had Tons of ability yet on her debut she hated
the fast ground, as You'd expect from a Daughter of Hector Protector , and
she was staying on into 4th as if she was crying out for further. Much as
I hate going againt my "notebookers" I certainly couldnt bet her on fast
ground and 6 f . Her maiden form was let down by the 2nd recently , and for
saying that Barry Hills ( who trains DRURY LANE) Trained both the winner
and the 5th home in MY DAISYCHAINS,s maiden , that he would have a fair
idea where he stands with DRURY LANE in relation to Mark Johnstones runner
. Notwithstanding the improvement that MY DAISYCHAIN May make , I could not
bet her here at all .

AEGEAN MAGIC Hasnt done anywhere near enough for me as a Filly to hold a
candle to the other two market rivals. Haslams are saying BLUE VENTURE "
WILL Run well but shouldnt be good enough to win " It could be worth
watching the market with SAMBUCAN DUKE as James Bethell can ready them to
win first time, and He won this race 2 years ago, and its owned by the
Powerfull Owner Mike Dawson ( also owns Stretton in the 2.30 ) who has won
26 races in the last 2 seasons .


I Think on a day of VERY Few oppurtunities, DRURY LANE is on form , a big
price at 11/8 and is highly likely to win this race .

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
York 3.30 Betting Forecast: 7/4 Passing Glance, 15/8 Nashaab, 4/1 Calcutta,
9/1 Londoner, 10/1 Ho Leng, 12/1 Palanzo.


I Think CALCUTTA is massive at 4/1 .

xx ITS RAINING AT YORK and CALCUTTA is the 1 horse in the race that wont
want that so be carefull and dont be afraid to miss the horse xx



CALCUTTA has always been a horse that prefers small fields, but for
whatever reason hes suddenly come right and matured. His last 4 runs have
all been excellent . He ran a brilliant 4th , beaten 2 lengths in a Group
3 at Doncaster , before suffering in a tactical race off topweight in a
0-105 Handicap when runner up again at Doncaster . He then went to Bath in
the 2 horse race with Wanna Be Around and nonchalently swept past him like
a top clas animal . However all this pales into insignificance on his last
start at Newmarket over the Rowley Mile . The track record has stood there
since the 1984 2000g Guineas , won by Mister Baileys . CALCUTTA Ran 3.5
lengths behind Desert Deer last week and Desert Deer smashed half a second
off that track record which was an astonishing run , in a Group1 Time . I
Think hes improving still at the age of 6 , has a great record at York ,
and at 4/1 I think hes a great bet .

PALANZO Has been "very dissapointing this year " according to Peter Harris
. At This Time of year thats usually code for " Yes he has been very
dissapointing but hes about to change that and spoil one of your bets matey
" . PALANZO also has absolutely no form at this trip . It will be a
surprise if he wins , but not that much of a surprise as thats the kind of
thing that happens at this time of year . There appears no reason to me
why he wont get a mile , although I have not always said that . Peter
Harris says "6f is his optimum trip " , and in the past i,ve agreed , but I
am now beginning to doubt that theory and wonder if the mile can bring the
improvement out of him . Either way , I doubt he will win today , but it
needs bearing in mind that hes racing off "94" , yet hes also 12/1 and a
previous winner off "102 ", so only the very brave would say he couldnt win
.

PASSING GLANCE is Ian Baldings best 3 year old, and looks well weighted off
"88" . However Martin Dwyer recently said that his best trip was 7f and
this is a mile , and Ian Balding also stated that He is better going right
handed and Both points look to have validity . I Just dont think hes in
CALCUTTA,s class. He gets 18lbs in weight today , but CALCUTTA Gave him
14lbs and beat him easilt at Doncaster and at this trip on this track I,d
expect Class to Prevail and CALCUTTA To beat him . Hes a big danger
especially as a frront runner on a front runners track, but he has been
beaten in his last 5 handicaps and I think he will run out of steam late
doors.

Its incredible that NASHAAB Has only ever won from "76" yet hes rated "91"
at the moment . You have to worry whether Class B will be too much for him
today . His record in Class B Handicaps is 6 7 3 4 8 6 9 8 15 7 3 5 14 and
that STRONGLY Suggests to me that he isnt this class. Hes hard to win with
and hasnt won since August 2001 . Perhaps the reason is that His trainer
says he needs "plenty of cover " and a small field wont give him that
today . Its also interesting that from his 5 wins so far , they have been
in fields of 13, 20 , 14 , 14 and 13 runners and in this 6 runner field its
hard to see him getting the race run to suit him .

I Cant see HO LENG Beating every one of these animals from 5lbs out of the
handicap .

LONDONER has only won a Taunton Maiden hurdle For Martin Pipe since he
won as a 2 year old . Henry Cecil had him before that and clearly LONDONER
didnt take to sticks so he was sent to Simon Dow . He had a reputation of
a horse that "didnt do it on the track " . He Flopped on his first 2 starts
for Dow, beaten 22 and 17 lengths . That was probably very predictable to
be fair as he was entitled to be unfit . Hes ran well twice since , but
there are worries. He looks like he needs further than this , and his past
trainers have said he needs a fast pace to be effective and hes not going
to get that neccesarily here ,a nd hes never won on fast ground before as
well . I,d be against him .

For me there are only 2 runners, PASSING GLANCE and CALCUTTA . I Think the
value lies with CALCUTTA at 4/1 but I wouldnt put anyone off a saver bet .
I think saving at 2/1 is probably too short considering there is a doubt
about the track for Passing glance, perhaps the best saver would be a very
small , Straight Forecast on Passing Glance to beat Calcutta as the
dividend would be about 7/1 . I am betting CALCUTTA Myself .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Account

Account Bets= -6.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 65.77
Ante Post Account= £1500
Stats This Season
Number of Bets = 121
Number of Winners= 42
Number of Placed = 9
Number of Losers = 70
Strike Rate = 37.49 %
£1 Level Staks Profit + £65.77
Average Price Winners = 3.51 /1.