Thursday 21st March 2002

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The Flat Season starts which most people are looking forward to, and the
messages will change from today. I,ll just talk you through it very
quickly, as it may take a week or so to get used to it. The Format is as
follows.

1) The Reccomendations. The "Account Bet " will be my most confidence
business and I will only advise this when I am VERY Confident and hapy the
price is not too short. Naturally the early season wont see anything
outstanding as its simply a bookmakers playground at this meeting . I Will
at least be able to say that any Account bet is there on merit and worthy
of large stakes, as I have not been pressured into Tipping substandard bets
to people who are understandably impatient with several days without a bet.
I Will, assuming there is no account bet, give a "Best bet of the day ",
which be my strongest opinion, and i,ll be very keen to make them
profitable. By doing this, I can retain the exclusiveness of my best bets
in "account bets" and not have any sad decisions about whether to tip a
horse. I,ll give you full guidance about whether i,ll back it, how heavily
, and where. Feedback has asked for my Best "negative" , "each way double
" and "multiple " and I,ve no problems giving those either.
2) The Exchange Files will be as full an account as possible about whats
fancied, whats not, and what edge there may be in that particular race .
Similar format as you see now, but hopefully improving quickly.
3) Ante Post Column daily, The Biggest personal enjoyment I get in this
Vile game is ante post betting, and i,ll be running that daily with every
move I make in the year.
4) Yesterdays Summary, which will be a post mortem or whats happened on the
preeceeding day for reference.
5) Account as Usual
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The Reccomendations


Account Bets

No Account Bet

I,m really getting "exclusive " with these, but I know of a horse next
Wednesday that runs up North that will certainly be an account bet subject
to price, and This will be given Tuesday Evening to give everyone a fair
chance of a price.
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The Best Bet of The Day

Southwell 3.45 (4) Hearthstead Pride
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The "Each Way Double " of the Day

Doncaster 4.30 (1) Aramram

Southwell 3.45 (4) Hearthstead Pride

( 3/10)
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The Strongest " Negatives " of the Day

Doncaster 4.30 (8) Thaquib

Doncaster 3.45 (5) Swallow Flight
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The Best Multiple Bet of the Day

On such a Hard day, it has to be the Placepot, which must pay a grand. Its
pointless telling you my perms, as following them reduces the dividends
dramatically and costs both you and I The value in the dividend. I,ll have
several perms though, Aramram will be my banker, I,ll be looking to get the
front 2 beaten in the First race, I,ll have a spread of low drawn horses in
the Broclklesby, I,ll avoid the Middle Draws in the sprint.
======================
THE EXCHANGE FILES


Doncaster 1.45

Betting Forecast: 9/2 Kylkenny, 5/1 Bawsian, 10/1 Fiori, Spring Pursuit,
12/1 Heathyards Swing, Leatherback, My Last Bean, The Butterwick Kid,
20/1 Chief Wardance, Dark Victor, Middlethorpe, 25/1 Argamia, Dance
Master, Free Will, King's Crest, Prince Nicholas, Skirt Around,
Smarter Charter, 33/1 Allez Mousson, Annadawi, Indian Sun, Occam, 50/1
Tianyi, Trotter's Future.


Impossible race. No Real Market Clues. A Colection of fast sand horses
take on decent Flat horses and You could not call it with any confidence.
I,m steer away from the front 2 ,( 9/2 Kylkenny, 5/1 Bawsian) and look
elsewhere.
.

The Weakest on the exchanges are FIORI, THE BUTTERWICK KID and HEATHYARDS
SWING
The Most positive news is for KYLKENNY and MY LAST BEAN
=====================
Doncaster 2.15

Betting Forecast: 9/2 Lord Of The Inn, 5/1 Basserello, 11/2 The Lord, 7/1
Mr Pop Idol, Semenovskii, 8/1 Must Be Love, Redding, 20/1 Logistical,
Niteowl Dream, 25/1 Diva Star, Furniture Factors, Hazel's Ridge, Notty
Bitz, 33/1 Baytown Flyer, Baytown Summercat, Lady Le Mans, Pertemps
Magus.

Reports are flying around as usual in this race. Pinch of Salt should be
taken.
Shocks are NOT Rare here, and ive been given an interesting mark for
BAYTOWN SUMMERCAT Here at 33/1
Channon says BASSERELLO Will improve a lot for the Run, His chance may
hings on his stall 1 draw
I,m not impressed with MR POP IDOL on breeding and Mc Mahons are now
certain to be underpriced anyway.
SEMENOVSKII from Berrys is reported as decent but not wanting the ground
"too soft "
Hazels Ridge is another thought to "hate soft ground "
Nothing has been punted heavily, and what little money has been staked here
has been well shared around.

The Weakest runner appears to be SEMENOVSKI on the exchanges. Its
impossible to pinpoint a stand out "positive" horse.
=====================
Doncaster 2.50

Betting Forecast: 8/1 Continent, Seven No Trumps, 9/1 Chookie Heiton,
Dancing Mystery, Get Stuck In, 12/1 Prince Of Blues, 14/1 Night Flight,
Regal Song, 16/1 Andreyev, Ellens Lad, Juwwi, Peruvian Chief, 20/1
Manorbier, Rudi's Pet, Sunley Sense, Watching, 25/1 Charlie Parkes,
Indian Spark, James Stark, 40/1 Doctor Spin, 50/1 Bannister, Million
Percent.

Quarrantine race with a Capital "Q". Some muppets will enjoy it. Good
even spread of money about, you would have to say the strongest early mover
was DANCING MYSTERY and obviously the Pricewise tip GET STUCK IN.
SEVEN NO TRUMPS is not strong and thats down to strong negative trainer
comments ( Didnt Nick Fox read that ?)
This is a race for the Very Desperate. The Best advice I can give you is
watch the 2.15 and try and see IF There is a Draw Advantage to help narrow
the field down.

The Best 2 backed horses are clearly GET STUCK IN and DANCING MYSTERY .
=====================
Doncaster 3.25

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Swallow Flight, 5/2 Dandoun, 4/1 Cornelius, 6/1
King's Ironbridge, 7/1 Diamond Max, 16/1 Zarin.

4 Year olds have Dominated this in recent years. Swallow Flight is a class
act, but at "levels " with Serious Form as 3 year olds , it may be time to
trust Dandoun and Kings Ironbridge to beat the favourite.
CORNELIUS Looks like being bigger than his Post Price, Fitness is the worry
with him, but I would not rule him out
Every Horse here has their supporters , and there appears no significant
signs. I Think DANDOUN is arguably stronger in the market than SWALLOW
FLIGHT , and these two are far stronger than the others.

Looking at the Spread Prices, and these are far more significant, CORNELIUS
Has been the bets backed horse here and thats been at the expense of
Swallow Flight and I,d say CORNELIUS was pretty fit and fancied from that
move

SWALLOW FLIGHT Has now very badly drifted on the spreads, and I cant now
see anything but a strong negative for this horse . I Strongly advise you
look elsewhere much as he is a class horse.
=====================
Doncaster 3.55

Betting Forecast: 4/1 Manorson, 6/1 Graft, 7/1 Exclusive Air, 8/1 Duke Of
Earl, Eagle Park, In Disguise, Miss Gigi, Risker, 12/1 Itcanbedone
Again, Nicklette, 20/1 Montoya, Platinum Duke, 25/1 Great As Gold, 33/1
Master Ellis


MANORSONS being supplemented for the Derby, Looks a horse crying out for
Soft Ground, but inexperience and the fact he has never ran a quick speed
figure from his all weather runs cant tempt me with him off Top Weight.
EXCLUSIVE AIR is very talented, the worry being the fact hes unproven on
Soft Ground and hes a Small horse
PLATINUM DUKE was a "non tryer " in my opinion last time but this is a lot
harder
Eraly betting patterns tell me that NO Horse is strongly fancied, there
were peanuts only around in this race last night, all the money for
Manorson was " £20 punters " , and that tells me that there is NOT 1 Horse
who is considered spot on, laid out for the race, and very well handicapped
to do a Job .
Barry Hills says GRAFT is "one of my best chances this week " and this is
well backed as well.

The Weakest horses appears to be DUKE OF EARL and IN DISGUISE.
=====================
Doncaster 4.30

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Thaqib, 3/1 Lion Hunter, 9/2 Aramram, 5/1 Systematic,
7/1 Mount Hesse, Tainwell, 14/1 Yakimov, 50/1 Colonnade, Dr Comfort,
Great Wall.

THAQIB was Tiny as a juvenile and i,d like to have seen this Grow and Fill
out over the winter before betting . Bred for Soft Ground, as is
SYSTEMATIC. I Dont think THAQIB will start favourite. Hes pretty weak. and
its clear that ARAMRAN Fron Channons is going to go off as fav . They were
willing to bet this at 11/8 last night when it was 7/2 in the paper and
thats clearly significant, although it was not for much money and Everyone
knows how hard these races are and you can only guess about your own
horses improvement and prospects, never mind the oppositions.

This is a " 1 " horse market and thats ARAMRAM . The horse attracting NO
Money is MOUNT HESSE
=====================
Doncaster 5.05

Betting Forecast: 5/1 Silver Socks, 7/1 Smoothie, 8/1 Gingko, 9/1 Tarawan,
10/1 Mutared, Spanish Star, 11/1 Flambe, 12/1 Yanus, 14/1 Aberkeen, Must
Be Magic, 16/1 Mutiny, Oriental Mist, 20/1 Crystal Creek, 25/1 Bressbee,
Lord Chamberlain, Manikato, 33/1 Beanboy, Bonds Gully, Top Of The Class,
50/1 College Star.

Flambe has question marks about getting home in the ground over an extended
10 Furlongs
Mutared has moved down in stables for me. Gay Kellway will think the
opposite though that its Upgraded.
This was a very light bettig heat last Night, but what little was staked
was for SILVER SOCKS . His starting price wont be helped by the Fact Nick
Fox tips the horse in the Post, and you can clearly see he has a decent
chance and does look well handicapped after finishing runner up in this
race last year. Theres always a right price and wrong price though, If I
was offered some 5/1 each way i,d take it for sure, but at 3/1, and a horse
that has not always been straight forward, i,m a watcher here.

SILVER SOCKS Could be the best backed horse of the day By Race Time. Its
certainly the big "positive" in the market here. The Weakness would be for
GINGKO, MUTARED, SPANISH STAR and SMOOTHIE
=====================
Southwell 2.05

Betting Forecast: 9/2 All Smiles, 5/1 Visitation, 7/1 Prideway, 8/1
Barsaya, Magic Charm, 10/1 Dispol Foxtrot, Fraamtastic, 12/1 Annie Apple,
Ocean Song, 14/1 Mai Tai, Vincentia, 16/1 Mujadilly, Waterpark, 20/1
Capacoostic, Smashing Time, 33/1 Natsmagirl.

MAGIC CHARM Should not have the pace over this trip to Cope with some of
these . VISITATION Has been talked down by his stable several times as
"modest". I Really cant see why VISITATION is the only horse people seem
interested in today, I would have no worries about taking him on. Its
simply a very nasty apprentice race that many can win. This looks another
1 horse market

The Positive has to be VISITATION Judging by market exchanges
The Negatives are the rest, withe MAGIC CHARM and ALL SMILES Particularly
weak .
=====================
Southwell 2.35

Betting Forecast: 4/1 No Mercy, 5/1 Harvey Leader, Nassau Night, 6/1 Red
Delirium, 7/1 Kumakawa, 8/1 City Flyer, 10/1 Bold Ewar, 16/1 Illusionist,
Wonderful Man, 20/1 Toejam, 25/1 Aisle, Minnie Bloo Min, Theme Time, 33/1
Wodhill Florin, 66/1 Haithem, Lucky Uno.

Semi interesting, but hard nevertheless. CITY FLYER is Tipster owned, and
a stablemate of HARVEY LEADER and early moves showed no cash for either. NO
MERCY Could be a horse well backed as Bryan Pearce has been bleeting all
year about this horse needing stall 1, and hes got this today from 16
runners. Strange that . I Gave a positive mention to NASSAU NIGHT in MM
832 Last time, at Wolverhampton , saying.......

" Ive had a decent bet on NASSAU NIGHT , Who is a horse i,ve told you about
before. Hes just ran a very fast time over 8f here when 2nd to B Major, He
beat a classy horse in 3rd , hes a big scopey and well regarded type thats
capable of making giant strides, and at 6/1 hes value. The Big Doubt is his
suitability at an extended 9 furlongs and his stamina, but i,m trusting
The connections to be right about that. His sire has yet to sire a winner
at this trip before and there is a doubt he may not last home. However, at
anthing like 7/1 He is an outstanding Bet.........."

He was gambled into 9/4 that day, but my fears about stamina were right as
he didnt get home. Hes back in trip, but is against older horses on a
surface hes yet to try, and that wont be easy, but he could also be very
popular here as well . This may well be the time that anyone who long ago
abandoned BOLD EWAR Regrets that as he does have the talent to walk this is
this twisted horse decides he wants to try.

This race has very little financial interest in to most punters judging by
the weak market on the exchanges
=====================

Southwell 3.10

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Night Cap, 9/2 Arnbi Dancer, 8/1 Gruff, 9/1 The
Count, 10/1 Vergil's Venture, 14/1 Caterham Common, Indelible, Lavys
Dream, Sea Top, 16/1 Mi Castano, Simply The Guest, 25/1 Philgirl, 33/1
Ivory Bay, Zarconia, 40/1 Reine Indienne, 50/1 Marino Wood.

Little money flying about, but most for NIGHT CAP. I Fancied this strongly
last time, and i,m certain this is the best horse in the race . What does
not appeal is his 77 day abscence , his stable being winnerless in 5
months, the fact his only run on fibresand was a bad one ( may not have
been very busy) and his running style which may see him held up. I
Thought NIGHT SIGHT was a certainty in January when he found 5f too sharp
after very annoyingly, and suspicioulsy missing the break, his earlier form
is better than these. You can read me rant about NIGHT CAP in MM795 and it
will be clear to you that I think Hes thrown in Here and is the best horse
in the race. Again its all about a "right " price and a "wrong" price, and
whether to risk the horse at a short price with all the Valid Doubts. One
trainer making quite Bullish noises about a horse has been Nick Littmoden
about the 16/1 chance MI CASTANO and that mat be value . This horse has
been gelded this winter and is reported as working very well.

MI CASTANO is very weak in the market , and NIGHT CAP is by far the
strongest and likely winner I think
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Southwell 3.45

Betting Forecast: 6/4 Our Imperial Bay, 2/1 Hearthstead Pride, 8/1 Lock
Inn, 10/1 Alkifaf, Dance Light, 14/1 Nabokov, 20/1 Harry B, 33/1 Aligatou,
Primo Dancer, 40/1 Adelphi Knight, 50/1 Surprise Selection.

You have to feel this is a "match " between OUR IMPERIAL BAY and
HEARTHSTEAD PRIDE . OUR IMPERIAL BAY Should not be lambasted for a slow
time last time as there was a farcical early gallop, and that didnt suit,
and he pulled clear at the death with the winer of the race. He looked a
decent prospect there, and although doubts remain about the trip, this may
be a Good Horse. I Have to side with HEARTHSTEAD PRIDE Though solely on
his progressive speed figures of 48-63-67 . Thats a decent bench mark . I
Dont like anything else, How the post can tip and Nap Dance Light is
beyond me, that seems a very ambitious stab in the dark. I,ve twice
mentioned HARRY B, I Have to admit this does look like a non tryer and
looks like its being "handicapped", But you can never be sure, it certainly
has ability , and at 20/1 watch the market

Looking at every angle, be it form, speed, money, then its a Match. Which
one of these will start favourite is just as hard a call as is splitting
them. The Race smacks of a Clever each way double with Hearthstead Pride

=====================
Southwell 4.20

Betting Forecast: 100/30 Trojan Wolf, 5/1 Al's Alibi, Count De Money, Dr
Strangelove, Ride The Tiger, 10/1 Adjudicator, 14/1 Coccinelle, 16/1
Inthaar, 20/1 Pickens, 33/1 Migwar, Shamokin, 40/1 She's Smokin, 50/1
Quakeress, Ten Past Six, Westorm.

Average Sand Seller, not much between TROYAN WOLF and ALs ALIBI Here, but
the interesting thing is the strength behind the former class horse COUNT
DE MONEY. This has been off the track 2 years, but the market tells me its
pretty Fit and fancied today,although I hate his stable and they dont have
many winners.

Very littlke money about here, what little there is suggests to me that
COUNT DE MONEY is worth the risk if you bet
=====================
Southwell 4.55

Betting Forecast: 4/1 Nod's Nephew, 7/1 Chorus, 8/1 Bound To Please, Keen
Hands, Marengo, Rio's Diamond, 12/1 Better Off, Lemarate, Nutmeg,
Solly's Pal, 14/1 Kanz Wood, Noble Locks, Resilient, Shirley Not, 16/1
Alsyati, 20/1 Scissor Ridge.

No Inspiration here at all, not much money about and If we havent won by
now, we,ll be in trouble. The Big Money has been for the "in the know "
horse CHORUS and theyve no doubt tipped that here . Ive had a seperate tip
for RIOS DIAMOND But i,m playing neither .
=====================
ANTE POST WATCH

New Concept ( again), I,ve always been a huge Ante Post Fan/ Player , I
love the Game and in past seasons I have not really had the time to do as
much as I wanted to. I,ll be doing this Daily now, and telling you what
I,ve done and What i,m looking at as well . This will consist of Both
Sports and Racing. My Current ante post positions are these.
Theres nothing to significant there at the moment , and many of my future
trades will be "arb " related.

Lincoln = Bet Adiemus at 8/1 and Laid Back at 7/1 = I Dont want an open
position on this horse, as much as he is very well handicapped in the race,
the Soft Ground is an enormous concern, and I was only looking at the
guaranteed Free Bet in the Arb .
Lincoln= I Cried For You @22/1 Taken minutes after his recent 2nd at
Lingfield to very small stakes.
Lincoln = Attache at 22/1, But the Ground has gone against me and this
probably wont win in my opinion.
National= Ive backed Sheltering at 50/1as you already know about.
Masters Golf= I,ve backed Duval at 20/1 and Garcia at 20/1
The Players Championship, i,m on Duval at 25/1

Anything ante Post i,ll update Daily. I am so determined this year to land
the 4 early Classics as well this year, and I already Think I know the
Cesraevitch winner which is in the magazine i,m sending out shortly
======================
Yesterdays Summary
Nothing to Report as There was No Flat Racing and No Message.
Todays Racing will be here on Friday
=====================
Account

Mythical £10,s + £ 187.33
Account at First Cut
Starting Balance 1080.11 units
Won Yesterday +0.00 units
Balance c/f 1080.11 units
Account At SP
Starting Balance 1067.91 units
Won Yesterday +0.00 units
Balance c/f 1067.91 units
Account From Nov 12th
Starting Balance +17.80 units
Won Yesterday +0.00 units
Balance c/f 17.80 units..