Thursday September 5th
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2 Best Bets of The Day


Southwell 5.20 (8) PRINCE MILLENNIUM Win Bet ( Take any Early prices of
approx 7/1)

St Leger ( Ante Post ) BBOD 0.5 Pts Each Way BALAKHERI at 6/1 ( See DRV
Below )



The St Leger Bet runs a week on Saturday and its an ANTE POST BBOD Just as
High Chapperal was in the Derby. Come Saturday week you will be Delighted
at how Good this bet Looks and its time to strike hard and strike now as
the 6/1 will be gone by the end of the Day . I,d like to get some Wages
out of todays BBOD as Tommorow may be quite Hard looking at Epsom and
Haydocks Declarations. PRINCE MILLENNUIM Will be a great value bet but it
is in an open race. To be honest I had narrowed it down to ALAFZAR at
Redcar and Prince Millennium, and whilst Alafzar is a far more likley
winner , its a lot shorter at 7/4 and I,m convinced we need to be staying
away from these kind of prices at the moment unless we can help it .

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Tuesdays Summary

The Loss of a stolen stake on Soltaat was Recovered with BOBSLEIGH Winning
at 4/5 . I,m sorry about the price. I knew the 2/1 in the Paper was massive
and that only a few would get that But Most of you will have had Over Even
money and its Won. It looked " Workmanlike" but I think its had a Ton in
hand and the Dunlop horse that I had a negative for Floundered on the fast
ground. Very pleased its won, but If you think about it , we are Only
"level " over the last two bets , when we should have had 3 pts profit from
Soltaat at early prices and about 1.5 pts from Bobsleigh . We have deserved
far more than we have got in the last couple of bets but the strike rate is
maintaining a very high percentage and Things are still very Rosy.
Wednesday was "No Bet " and i,m pleased. York and Lingfield were Nasty and
there were signs from the results that we are entering the "silly season" .
Shocks in several races , which is typical about Now . Lets NOT Look back
at the end of October and Regret a Hatfull of mistakes. Let others make the
mistakes. We are coming into some turbulance now in the next 8 weeks and we
need a steady hand and a lot of metel to keep ahead of the Game.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

TODAYS RACING


SOUTHWELL

2.20 Betting Forecast: 3/1 Trumpton, 9/2 Pont Neuf, 11/2 Giggle, 6/1
Binanti, 8/1 Welcome Stranger, 10/1 Dubai Dreams, 12/1 Tumbling Sand, 14/1
Victory Vee, 16/1 Wasted Talent, 20/1 Sea Holly, 25/1 Miss Zally,
Mornington Flyer, 33/1 Minelly, 50/1 Scholar, Seraph, The Diddy Man.

The 3/1 Favourite Trumpton needs to be Opposed being a Filly thats better
bred for other sand tracks and a horse that cant have been fancied much on
her debut as she started 50/1 and i,ll be surprised if this wins. That said
many here are fillies and the standard is poor. Of the market leaders I
prefer BINANTI and GIGGLE . BINANTI Is at least its a Colt, Better bred
than many here and faster clocked as well. He ran on nicely last time and
is sure to get a Mile and the 6/1 appeals far more than the 3/1 about
Trumpton. Its not a bet for me though, the yard are small and winnerless
at southwell with a 0 from 17 record in recent years and thats off putting
. GIGGLE Looks progressive and does get allowances and will be a danger
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2.50 Betting Forecast: 6/4 Desert Spa, 11/4 Polish Baron, 6/1 St
Helensfield, 13/2 Reminiscent, 14/1 Shaffishayes, 16/1 Alsahib, Healey,
Lancer, 25/1 Daunted, 33/1 Look And Learn, Tarazonic, 40/1 Mare Of
Wetwang, 50/1 Alnajashee, Mon Performer, Trois Elles, Wethaab.

I Cant have St Helensfield in this race. This ran badly last time , and the
only possible excuse you could give him other than to say he ran badly was
that he "may " have gone off to fast. Even so his record is vile in large
fields and he is clearly a horse that needs small fields and 16 runners
will be too big for him to cope with today . Desert Spa has a WWWWW Record
which isnt neccesarily a sign of a great bet . Hes respected of course but
hes not a certainty and POLISH BARON Has every chance of beating him up.
POLISH BARON Has won fresh so a 56 day lay off doesnt bothere me, he has
good figures , and whilst unraced here before his breeding stats are
nothing short of "Sparkling" and his recent concession of weight and a
beating to White Plains at Wolverhampton was excellent when viewed in the
context of this race . I think He will nail the favourite . I Dont fancy
Reminiscent at all and the outsider Shaffishayes could sneak into the frame
at decent odds.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
4.20 Betting Forecast: 4/1 Tomthevic, 9/2 Cash, 11/2 Quiet Times, 7/1
Remains Of The Day, 8/1 Emarati's Image, 10/1 Indian Music, 12/1 Tancred
Times, 14/1 Henry Tun, Sergeant Slipper, Stand By, 16/1 Tink's Man, 20/1
Neptune's Gift, 25/1 A Teen, Gemtastic, Grasslandik, Persian Pearl.

Favourite TOMTHEVIC Would Not Be certain to handle this track and i,d be
carefull and leave him alone . He may win but he has plenty to prove here.
I Loved Quiet Times chance last time ( in College maids race) but he
dissapointed badly and i,m not sure I want a 3 year old at this trip
against older horses. The same applys to REMAINS OF THE DAY who is another
not certain to handle the fibresand. Emaratis Image has very little chance
for me. By Default it looks like CASH is the safest bet but its very tough
and i,d be far more confident about giving "negatives " here than a
selection .

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Southwell 4.50 Betting Forecast:7/2 Erracht, 5/1 Justalord, 6/1 Fiennes,
8/1 Charge, East Of Java, 12/1 Geronimo, Polar Haze, Uproar, 14/1
Pleasure Time, Tuscan Flyer, 20/1 Aa-Youknownothing, 25/1 Miss C,
Nite-Owl Mate, Pleasure, So Sober.

IF You want a bet here then bet EAST OF JAVA . I Have mulled over this as
a BBOD But I cant confirm everything I Need to know. I said the other day
that Peter Makins horses were back with a vengance and that there is almost
a case for betting them blind. Hes had 12/1 and 13/2 winners that you
couldnt bet without guesswork and his EAST OF JAVA is basically a mirror
image of a typical bet I love and that we,ve profited from this year. This
is the Class horse in the race that has dropped in the handicap ( From 70
to 60 ) and now is rated the magical number of "60 " and is allowed to
conceed weight to inferior horses and dropping in class . The idea is that
it returns to form and outclasses his rivals and weve had many of these so
far this year.
EAST OF JAVA Has The "look " of an excellent Bet here. I,ve watched the
Video of his last start , where he had a 3 months abscence and raced over
an inadequate 5f . I personally think he wasnt "off " last time. He very
carefully missed the break in my opinion and he wasnt given a hard time at
all and that was a Much harder race than this and that would have put him
spot on for this. I Am NOT Tipping EAST OF JAVA As He is
1) a Maiden 2)Unproven at the trip ( He may prefer 6f) 3) Unraced on
Fibresand ( He ought to act) 4) Drawn High which May or May not suit .
There are too many doubts but I like him a lot, he was 2 lengths behind
todays favourite ERRACHT Last time out and i,m confident we can beat that ,
in fact i,m certain we can . If you play then look no further than Him as a
Winner but there are too many doubts and I dont want to be complacent .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Southwell 5.20 = Betting Forecast: 7/2 Sharp Gossip, 11/2 Distinctly Well,
Scramble, 7/1 Prince Millennium, 10/1 Some Will, 11/1 Woodland River, 12/1
Quito, 14/1 Hamunaptra, Keen Hands, Marengo, Uptown Lad, 16/1 Mr Top
Flight, Sharp Steel, 20/1 Capallin, 25/1 Weetman's Weigh, 33/1 Van De
Velde.

I Will be having a serious bet on PRINCE MILLENUIM . Hes unraced here ,
but i,m betting he,ll be fine on the surface , His trainer says hes very
versatile on the any ground , and hes been running at the top of his form.
This is the Best handicapped horse in the stable and connections have said
hes 10lbs better than his handicap mark. He is 9lbs higher on sand than
Grass but he has a class apprentice taking off 5lbs and he will still be
very nicely weighted here . Hes just clocked big , his last run on heavy
ground was decent in a far better class than this prompting racereaders
to comment " Prince Millennium remains one to keep on the right side.
Outpaced when the race began in earnest, he stuck on well towards the
finish, but the damage caused by the dawdling early gallop had already been
done. A properly run race would have suited him much better" . This is
Masive Value at 7/1 and I,m only afraid of DISTINCTLY WELL .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Folkestone 3.10 Betting Forecast: 3/1 Curfew, 11/2 Highland Shot, 13/2
Enchanted, 15/2 Christaleni, 9/1 Santisima Trinidad, 12/1 Lochridge, Prima
Stella, 14/1 Ludynosa, Twilight Mistress, 16/1 Fruit Of Glory, Princess
Almora, 20/1 Ashlinn, Feathers Flying, Love You Too, Madame Boulangere,
Red Opal, 25/1 Overload, Psychic.

CURFEW was a BBOD For us on 25th August when winning by 6 lengths at 11/8
on the Bridle. She is basically a Handicap certainty here but is she a
decent bet ? At 3/1 i,d a strong backer but shes going to be more like 2/1
or 15/8 and Nobody knows how good a risk that is, until after the race .
Hindsight is the only tipster worth his salt here , you have a large
field,a dodgy draw, Oscar Urbina wouldnt be the best of his Craft either ,
and there are several in form fillies here as well . Its also a bad race
for favourites with only 1 obliging in 10 years . Yes she attracts me but
we havent made our money following the crowd in races like this. I,d be
inclined to watch her and Gloat about what a great price 11/8 was when we
backed her recently.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Redcar 4.30 Betting Forecast: 5/2 Alafzar, 4/1 Technician, 5/1 Boo B
Prize, 11/2 Rhythm Of Life, 6/1 Tribal Prince, 10/1 Francis Flute,
Mehmaas, 12/1 Pips Magic, 25/1 Efidium, 33/1 Mahlstick, 50/1 Oriole, 66/1
Spy Master.

I,m Going to apologise in advance to you here as IF This loses I certainly
wont fancy apologising tommorow. So I,m sorry this lost today If it did .
However, whilst I jest not , I simply cant belive ALAFZAR Will or can be
beaten here today . Looking first at the Flaws of some of the Rivals .

TECHNICIAN at 4/1 is now a 7 year old thats not won for a year and the
signs are that the horse is going backwards and connections are now losing
the battle. Eric alston recently said "Hes been a real dissapointment this
year , He looks as though hes just going through the motions " . I Think
the Only chance TECHNICIAN Has is if he can get out and dominate, but hes
not certain to do that much as he is well weighted . BOO B PRIZE was the
outsider that was gambled that spoiled a Bet of mine on Soltaat here .
That performance is LIGHT YEARS Away from what hes asked to do no. That day
they clearly had him "right " , hed had a wind operation and clearly went
well fresh. He won before flopping on his next start. This is a massive
step up in class against older horses and after a bad run last time i,d be
very surprised If he could beat ALAFZAR . The same age group is the 3 year
old RHYTHM OF LIFE From John Hills . RHYTHM OF LIFE Won a bad maiden in
May against other 3 year olds. The runner up has been stuffed twice since
as has the 4th in maiden handicaps and the form looks garbage. He now moves
UP In class against serious animals and cant be fancied in my opinion .
FRANCIS FLUTE Has NO Chance at these weights and rated only "54" cant have
the Class to win. He will also Hate the Fast ground and I cant belive this
will be anywhere near the winner . TRIBAL PRINCE is a very Hard horse to
catch right . His trainer recently stated that " .......... He Possesses a
lot of ability, but is extremely reluctant to use it. He doesn't like
coming through horses, so somehow has to find his way to the outside, but,
of course, being able to do that largely depends on where you're drawn.
He's an extremely difficult ride." . That doesnt augar well . TRIBAL PRINCE
Was beaten by the selection 2 starts ago but has a Big weight Pull , its
just that he finds very little at the death and I think the favourite will
be too eager to win and too race fit and too in form and will want it
more.I Cant fancy MEHMAAS or PIPS MAGIC and I really cant belive that
ALAFZAR Will lose this race and I rate him an Even Money Chance. The
reason he is 5/2 is because He was beaten last time and He is NOT The best
weighted horse here. His task today is FAR Simpler than his recent tasks.
Look at his last 4 races

Aug 7th Yarmouth = Won a 0-80 off "64 " Beating Curfew. You just need to
see what Curfew has done since to belive the merits of that performance.
Racereaders stated " ALAFZAR had been given too much to do on his last
visit to the course but was always close to the leaders on this occasion
and came with a strong late run to lead close home. He looked well
handicapped and clearly appreciated the fast ground and 7f "

Aug 24th Goodwood = He was Up in Class to 0-95 and Back in trip which would
not have suited . Racereaders said "outpaced to half way "

Aug 29th Chester = Dropped back into 0-70 Class off "69" he hacked up by 3
lengths , described as "showing impressive improvement " .

Aug 31st Chester = Back up 2 classes from E to C and 0-100 Class he
naturally was going to struggle carrying a penalty. He was almost hacked
down in the first two furlongs and nearly fell , but recovered only to have
lost his place. It was a Credit that he was only beaten under 4 lengths and
was running on again at the Death .

Hes in the form of his Life, Hes the Fittest horse in the race , Trip and
Ground are Perfect , hes dropping from a 0-100 Class C Race , To a 0-70
Class E Race and I will be very surprised If he is beaten here. Have a
decent bet and 2/1 is value.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

ANTE POST WATCH

ST LEGER

Bandari 11/4 Kazzia 6/1 Balakheri 6/1 Bollin Eric 8/1 Highest 10/1
Ballingarry 10/1 Sholokhov 10/1 First Charter 20/1 Gamut 20/1 Mamool 20/1
Mr Dinos 25/1 Al Moulatham 33/1 Black Sam Bellamy 33/1 Mellow Park 33/1
Kaieteur 33/1 Nysaean 33/1 Latest Moment 33/1


Now is the Time to strike on BALAKHERI From Stoutes and Bet the Horse "each
way " before the strong trends are digested in the media and the race loses
its shape as a betting race . I Am certain the time to strike is Now .
KAZZIA Must be a massive Doubt and i,ll be amazed if she runs . Thats
about 15% of the Market Gone . BALAKHERI Has to be the Bet each way and it
has been reported as working Brilliantly at the Weekend in recent Gallop
Reports. You cant belive it will be 6/1 on the day, I Think it will be
about 11/4 Best come saturday week in a really small field full of
outsiders and A Bet Now is excellent value. His price is already starting
to go now and we have to be quick . BOLLIN ERIC Does Not meet the
statistical tests to win and hes 0 from 5 this year and is "Odds on " to be
racing on ground he hates . HIGHEST and FIRST CHARTER are stablemates of
Our Bet so you must expect the First string is BALAKHERI . William Hill is
your best option, Uk Betting, Littlewoods and Paddy Power are also all 6/1
.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
ACCOUNT

Account Bets= -6.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 69.57
Best E/W Double= + 3.11
Negatives =142 Successful from 161(88.19%)
Ante Post Account= £1500