Friday December 13th

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The Best Bet of The Day

Wolverhampton 3.15

HENRY TUN Win Bet

I Have backed it each way but I know money will come and it will be a far
shorter price than the 6/1 it currently is and I,m happy for a win bet .

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2 x Mythicals

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Wolverhampton 1.35 Shadowfax
Wolverhampton 2.10 Prince Tulum
£10 Each Way Double
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Wolverhampton 2.45 Barkby £ 10 Win

Saturdays Message will be Short and lacking in Full Analysis as it Covers
Both a 10 race Card at Wolves and a Full Lingfield Card .
I Cant reply to mails until this evening as i,m travelling back to the
Office shortly so I aplologise in advance for not replying .

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Wednesday's Summary

Had a Bad Day at Lingfield on Wednesday . Took a Few knocks but i,ve
managed to iron out the problems I think . I,m very pleased i didnt go with
a "Staking" day as we may have got beaten. At the moment we started by
Hitting the Ground Running , but have seized up somewhat and made little
progress in the last week . I am not to worried by that , its part and
parcel of the game . I would expect to hit the "zone " in about the 2nd
week of January . Thats when I should have my best run . Prior to that I
hope to make some nice steady profits but I dont think I will be at my
absolute best till january . I know predicting this sounds strange , but it
can be done with some confidence . This is probably going to be for the
same reasons that I hit form in staying races last July and August as the
weight for age tables become totally corrupted and False then and great
oppurtunities arise . We shouldnt panic. We have 383 days left and the
Less of the like Wednesday the Better .

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Todays Racing + The DRV

Wolverhampton 12.25

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Bond Royale, 7/2 Ronnie From Donny, 15/2 Malahide
Express, 8/1 Star Lad, Zafine, 10/1 Aegean Magic, 11/1 Singularity, 14/1
El Habeeba, Mabel Riley, Repeat, Whippasnapper.


Not spent a lot of time here in this Nursery. RONNIE FROM DONNIE Recorded a
fast time in winning a maiden recently and this will interest the Speed
Compilers and evidence that He was trying to be backed heavily on the
exchanges was seen last night .His improvement may be down to the fact He
has recently moved to Brian Ellison . He isnt chucked in off "76" , but
some will say that Speed Figure makes him well handicapped . Its a very
tight open race though and initially the Post had him in at a bigger price
at 6/1 and moved him down to 7/2 which is about right . He would be the
"superficial " selection but I havent done the race in any great detail .


Conclusion = I Can understand why Ronnie From Donnie is being well backed
and hes the selection
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Wolverhampton 1.00

Betting Forecast: 5/4 Rock Concert, 13/2 Butrinto, 7/1 Flying Treaty, 8/1
Loner, Santa Catalina, 9/1 Cumbrian Princess, 10/1 Patientes Virtis, 16/1
Gilden Magic, 20/1 Secret Sentiment, 25/1 Mi Sombrero, 40/1 Atractive Girl,
50/1 Pertemps Gill.


ROCK CONCERT Won a poor Southwell maiden from a horse rated 46 . She has
since Ran ok in a similar time , but that was when 2nd in a pretty weak
0-67 Fillies handicap . She has a chance but I wouldnt be afraid to oppose
her Giving weight to the whole field , as a Filly .
LONER is a bit in and out . On his Lingfield form in Febuary he,d have
every chance here and he was very badly off at the weights in a far better
race last time where he was well beaten and cut no ice . LONER,s race 3
starts ago at Beverley when 2nd would be good enough to win this , ( The
3rd, 4th and 5th all won their next starts) but the Big Problem with LONER
is this. On his day he clearly has ability to win a race like this but his
form is so inconsistent, patchy and unpredictable that you cant really call
his chance with confidence . He isnt a safe risk at all and the fact Wigham
hasnt had a winner since July and has had a poor year (only 2 winners) its
a horse I want to overlook . PATIENTES VIRTIS Won a weak Sprint Handicap
here in July but her last 2 starts have been Poor . She is also a Filly,
and she moves up to a Mile for the first time in her career . Its hard to
know what to make of her chance and whether she stays . I think she should
. The Owner of this horse is very well looked after by Kellaway and is one
of her best owners . I would suggest that the chance of PATIENTES VIRTIS
can be Gleemed by the market . CUMBRIAN PRINCESS Will have needed her last
race over 7f ( far too sharp for her ) and She could run well here over a
longer trip but its a surprise She hasnt been out since that day and today
she has a Fitnesss query having been off 74 days . She has won before in
the past when fresh , but Shes a Very Hard horse to win with and I suspect
9f is her best trip . I Just wonder looking at her form , whether shes
being laid out for a race on or about Boxing Day that she won last year (
Dec 27th 9f ) . She ran over too short a trip on her prep run last year and
I just feel thats the game plan here .On his best form FLYING TREATY Would
have a good chance but this trip may be a little sharp. Hes pretty lightly
races but a very hard horse to predict , I couldnt bet him, but I couldnt
rule him out . So far the 3 year old Filly SANTA CATALINA Has modest form
but shes quite well weighted here and is definately showing improvement bit
by bit . BUTRINTO is an old rogue but has won many times, and fresh , this
is a poor race and he can go well if tuned up .

Conclusion . Rock Concert is a bad price at 5/4 and drifting . There must
come a point where she drifts to value . I,m not sure what that point is
but its at least 2/1 but although keen to oppose her with something solid
each way, I have given up the Chase.

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Wolverhampton 1.35

Betting Forecast: 13/8 Shadowfax, 15/8 Humouresque, 11/2 Every Note
Counts, 10/1 Mount Benger, Triwan, 12/1 Voluptuous, 14/1 Its All Eurs,
20/1 Edward's Brother, 66/1 Bodiam, Philo, Sherkhan, 100/1 Dare To Run.

EVERY NOTE COUNTS is a Colt but FAR From likely to appreciate the fibresand
surface. He is simply far too badly Bred to be of any interest here at his
price and is a horse to avoid today .

SHADOWFAX Started her sand life in a Hot nursery at Lingfield for Brian
Meehan when reported as "Unlucky " . Truth is He probably wasnt "off " that
day anyway . He then Ran 4th in a 0-85 Nursery at Newbury . There were 20
runners that day and He ran a very big race . Racereaders commented that
" SHADOWFAX Ran well and could easily be forgiven his luckless run on the
sand last time and was once again a sufferer late on in this event. He
shapes as though he will stay further." . Thats Good solid handicap form in
the context of this maiden . SHADOWFAX Then went to Gay Kellaway and Last
time he went to Wolves and came 2nd to Jannadav . The Winner was fancied
that night by Jamie Osborne who told the Morning line that it would win .
Kellaway put a tongue strap and an eyeshield on him and he seemed to "Pull
himself up" inside the last . He may have a few temprement issues but the
Time that night was VERY Creditable despite the surface riding very fast .
The 3rd ( Blue Trojan) has come out and hacked up in a maiden by 3 lengths,
and the 4th ( Bo ) who was miles behind that night has since ran well in
handicap company . Bearing in mind the Breeding inadequacies of EVERY NOTE
COUNTS I Think you have to fancy SHADOWFAX Very strongly to beat EVERY NOTE
COUNTS Today regardless of temprement issues .

The Big danger is Prescotts HUMOURESQUE . She is a half-sister to
high-class sprinter Danehurst out of a mare closely related to Dazzle, a
leading juvenile filly back in 1996. She went to Leicester on her debut ,
the form didnt work out to well ( She horse behind her got beaten in a
dreadfull sand maiden ) but She will have learned plenty from that
introduction . HUMOURESQE Then went to Wolves over 6f and Flopped at 11/10
when she was never going the pace, plugging on in the straight to claim a
modest third. That was a bitterly flat run , and she probably found the
fast track and 6f trip far too sharp . This 7f will be far more ideal .
That said , she was beaten 11 lengths in 3rd place , thats quite some way
and the horse in 3rd has been hammered since in a maiden , and the WInner
has been beaten since when Favourite .

ITS ALL EURS Couldnt be fancied without a market move, and its a filly but
she does have scope and is nicely bred . I Better mention MOUNT BENGER was
Robert Beckett descibes him as "my most expensive yearling and one of my
best 2 year olds " . However he also states that hes had many problems and
will be a better 3 year old . TRIWAN Looks a Prescott "Handicapping " run .

The staright Choice is between SHADOWFAX and HUMOURESQUE . You cant be
certain as HUMOURESQUE is such a beautifully bred filly and likely to be
far better than Shadowfax in time, but shes a Filly (negative), she comes
off a bad run (albeit with excuses), Her Form hasnt worked out and
Prescott hasnt really been Firing yet with his juveniles .


Conclusions.

SHADOWFAX is the Selection . He was put in as 15/8 "2nd Fav" in the Post
yesterday and then moved to 13/8 Fav . He , predictably is being backed
into about 11/8 as Humouresque ( 15/8 in the paper) Drifts out to 3/1 + .
Pretty much sure thats Bled all the value out of SHADOWFAX . I,d have no
problem with him as a mythical £ 10 bet but its far too short for bigger
stakes . Its a similar case in the 2.10 with Prince Tulum who looks very
short but should win . Rather than have WIN Mythical £10 bets on both i,d
much prefer the each way double route . This Covers any vunerability in the
finish by Shadowfax and any Improvement in the 2.10 from the opposition to
Prince Tulum .
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Wolverhampton 2.10

Betting Forecast: 13/8 Prince Tulum, 11/2 Reap, Yalla Lara, 8/1 Labrett,
9/1 Exclusive Air, Middleton Grey, 10/1 Cherished Number, Summer Shades,
14/1 First Maite.


Most people will be of the view that PRINCE TULUM should be the most likely
winner but is not much of a price .I,d have to agree.
I "Think " that PRINCE TULUM Should win but hes very short and seems to be
a horse that has been "Hyped" up so much . He hasnt actually won a handicap
which troubles me. He meets some very strong Opposition here . I Dont
Particularly fancy REAP or LABRETT and they would be my negatives in the
race but I dont feel sure enough to give a Positive . REAP Isnt this Class
for me and LABRETT May be better at 7f . MIDDLETON GREY Clocked some
fabulous times last year and gets the mile here . I,m not keen on CHERISHED
NUMBER
Much . This ought to be too strong . The Ian Balding filly YALLA LARA
Really complicates things , she is very decent and If she acts on the track
she could win . I Think its between PRINCE TULUM , YALLA LARA , EXCLUSIVE
AIR Or MIDDLETON GREY . The 1st Selection is PRINCE TULUM But I think Hype
has dictated his price a Bit .

Conclusion= I Do Like Prince Tulum but hes not exactly a certainty by any
means and I quite like the e/w double with Shadowfax in the 1.35 race .
Prices are a bit short but both being placed must be highly likelyto return
almost all the stakes , and a 6/1 + Double is more than possible .

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Wolverhampton 2.45

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Bobby Kennard, 3/1 Barkby, 6/1 Mandoob, 7/1
Reminiscent, 8/1 Vandenberghe, 10/1 Established, 12/1 Wethaab, 14/1 Bright
Spangle, 20/1 Unsigned, 25/1 Geri Roulette, Hajeer, 33/1 Papingo.

BOBBIE KENARD Was impressive last time but the track was probably the
reason and he may have beaten horses that didnt stay as well , and I,d be
Far more keen on BARKBY . I Have been saying that Southwell was never going
to suit BARKBY as much as Wolves and how hes back at the scene of his fast
time win that put him in everyones notebook he could win this easily . His
Southwell defeats were no surprise to Breeding Statisticians who predicted
those Flops . Had he not ran in those Southwell races then he would have
been Odds On Today . I Dont think the Step back in trip will hamper him at
all as his 2m win here was from the front and he looked in control all the
way . BOBBIE KENARDS Time figures are nothing special at alll and He may
not have improved to win a bad race last time . I,m pretty confident BARKBY
Should be forgiven his 2 Southwell defeats creditable though they were ,
and the horse behind him last time has gone on and franked the form running
2nd in a Far Better Class D Handicap . MANDOOB Won a Classified race here
over 12f and Followed up in another weak race . He carries weight well but
steps up to 14f today . The Trip cant be certain to suit and My Guess is
that he will find a fast relentless gallop and he,ll have to stay it well
with 10 stone off his highest handicap mark for 18 months . REMINISCENT Has
definately got a chance at these weights but doesnt appear very genuine in
the finish . I,d give VANDENBURGE a "half chance " if he stays but I dont
like ESTABLISHED. This isnt clear cut but we could have a horse thats
potentially different class in BARKBY and whilst this track is far too
tempremental at the moment for maximum stakes, and the Opposition Far from
certain to call ( you cant judge them over trips they havent done before
accurately) i,d have no problems with a Mythical bet and i,m betting him
myself .

Conclusion = I,m keen to give BARKBY another chance back at his favourite
Track . Several Dangers but this looks the bet to me .
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Wolverhampton 3.15

I Cant explain Why but HENRY TUN is the Bet here . I Havent been able to do
a DRV For the race but I can tell you it wasnt Busy last time and Baldings
are saying that it wont get beaten . At 6/1 it has to be the BBOD With the
dangers The 2 market rivals and NIFTY MAJOR Who i,ve saved on myself after
a serious Upgrade in trainer and a lay-off.

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Wolverhampton 3.45

Looking briefly in the 3.45, I just can not understand how MALLARD Can be
so short . Its not just the Bad Draw, the 220 days abscence or the fact hes
had more trainers than Reebok , even when he won the Time was so slow and
in an amateur race it could have meant anything . Hes obviously had
problems . I just cant see whats going to win, or even be guaranteed to run
a solid race . MALLARD is drifting like a Bank of Fog on the exchanges .
Overall i,d be happier to Duck the 3.45 .

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Wolverhampton 4.15

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Carols Choice, 4/1 Valuable Gift, 5/1 Cressex Katie,
8/1 Mandy's Collection, 9/1 Flapdoodle, 11/1 Hamlyn, Sergeant Slipper,
12/1 Howards Hero, Indian Music, 14/1 Attorney, Tree Roofer, 25/1 Milly's
Lass, 33/1 Dashing Steve.



There have been 5 races at this trip this season ( 5f Handicaps Class D, E
Or F ) And all 5 have gone to older horses .

VALUABLE GIFT is still a maiden but is a consistent one and this year has
placed in 6 of his 9 starts . Often that can mean a rise in weight, but hes
come down 7lbs . He failed last time in a 6f Southwell seller in a photo
but the time was decent and he had stall 16 of 16 which didnt help . This
is his grade and he is a winner waiting to Happpen , but he also a
frustrating type thats vunerable in a finish . CAROLS CHOICE Justabout
holds VALUABLE GIFT on march form here , and is basically just a modest
handicapper thats well handicapped and there should be little between them
today . CRESSEX KATIE Has been running over 6f and takes her 1st try at 5f
today . She Beat a poor maiden field here in October . That wasnt a shock,
her run at Lingfield in January When 4th at Lingfield would be easily good
enough today . Last time she took on a 0-70 Class and tried to make all
before being overtaken . That wasnt a bad race , Jodeeka was behind her
albeit conceeding weight. Her Breeding , her family and her running style
all point to this drop to the minimum trip being ideal and She "could " run
these into the ground. The BIG Problem for her is stall 13 , the outside
berth and how much that costs her . This must be an issue. In the 5 races
over this trip (mentioned above) , Only once has stall 13 placed ( 3rd )
and Stall 12 hasnt placed at all yet . Add to this the fact shes a 3 year
old , and a Filly , then I have to pass her up, although I was beginning to
fancy her quite strongly before that and Had she had a low draw I would
have backed her as I think she could have more Class than these. A Good
idea would be to watch the 3.15 race over 5f and IF The very high numbers
look not to be disadvantaged it would reassure you that she can win from
stall 13 . FLAPDOODLE Ran about 3 lengths behind CAROLS CHOICE Last time
but a) That was her 1st start in 2 months and it may have been needed b)
She is 11lbs Better off today . Shes only Modest but I fancy her to beat
Carols Choice today and thats half the price and at 8/1 she could win this
. She doesnt win very often but shes a trailblazer and she could make all
if the ground helps her . I Cant have SERGENAT SLIPPER at all and Stall 12
is a negative as well. He ought to be outpaced here by trailblazers and
pushed out wide . I Dont like INDIAN MUSIC Either . Hes going to get
outpaced here for me on his 1st attempt at Wolves 5f and his only chance
comes from a suicidal early pace and the leaders dropping away leaving the
hold up horses to swoop . Dont fancy him . MILLYS LASS Cant win at these
weights and has a lay off to contend with as well as being poorly bred for
this track. Cant win for me either . HAMLYN is still a maiden after 22
starts and hasnt showed enough recent promise .

MANDYS COLLECTION is very interesting here . Old Members may remember way
back in October 2001( MM 753 ) That I wrote a positive write up on this
Filly trained by Tony Newcombe . He was praising her temprement and
physique and said she was a decent filly .She wasnt off a yard in her 3
starts at 2 as I told you in MM 765 Last November !! On her 3 year old
start in November 2001 I made her a mythical bet and she was backed from
9/1 to 6/1 and Got beaten in a photo by an Ian Balding horse Who has since
won off an 11lbs Higher mark . She ran a few times this year as a 3 year
old and had some placed form but didnt break any records or look
outstanding, but you have to remember shes a Tony Newcombe horse . Newcombe
was out of form all summer . He was struggling for winners and From April
to July he Only had 1 winner from 61 runners . Its a bit different now.
Newcombe has had 2 recent winners in Alberich and Mufheh , and hes More
than capable of not allowing his horses to be seen at their best when it
suits them . He is a Nightmare to read , MANDYS COLLECTIONS Last run was
very good . It was in 0-82 Class , the AVERAGE OFFICIAL RATINGS Of her
dangers in that race were 72.41 ( Todays is merely a 0-58 race with
maidens in and A.O.R . of only 50.16 ) . MANDYS COLLECTION Ran in Law
Breakers race here last week which was run in a fast time and the fastest
time of the day . She was 1lb out of the handicap yet ONLY Beaten 4 lengths
that day . That run is easily Good enough to win this race and she has a
great chance . The Only problem with her is that her stable are simply not
certain to allow her to run on merits if we spoil her price .

Conclusions

Strong Positives = Mandys Collection
Positives = Valuable Gift + Flapdoodle
Chance = Carols Choice (the Wrong Favourite but has a chance ) + Cressex
Katie (*but the draw, her sex and her age really troubles me )
Negatives=Hamlyn + Sergeant Slipper +Howards Hero +Indian Music +Millys
Lass
Strong Negatives=None

No Bet as my main fancies are 3 year old fillys that statistically dont
come out well , and my strongest Positive is from a nightmare stable that
wouldnt hesitate to "Change plans " if any Ripples in the market affected
their price . Watch the market and IF Mandys Collection is solid then she
may be worth a bet .

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Horses of Note

I,m adding Festive Affair and Beady to the HTF List .

Mactavish +riaka king +Baraloti + Town Called Malice +high reach+ twylight
mistress+ pays d'amour +aleron + glitter and glory + consignia +Thurlestone
rock +donizetti +expected bonus + duescals +camlet +pop gun+ fifth edition
+marabar +turtle recall +garmoucheh +electrique +eva peron +autumn fantasy
+trekking +online investor +barolo +janoueix +Indian Steppes+Marshman+Jmw
turner
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