Friday May 17th

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The Reccomendations

No Account Bet

There May be an account Bet tommorow . I,m expecting several bets shortly
and I think the BBOD,s are about to have a good run very shortly. I,m a bit
frustrated today as I had a Very Strong BBOD That has been carved up by
two non runners, I had another in reserve that cant be the price That it
looked like starting, so I,m using my "3rd" reserve as todays BBOD . My
Original Best Bet of the Day was Titchfield each way but two non runners
have spoilt the chance.
Ive had a 50% look at Hamilton tonight. I have not found much interest
there so far, but if anything does come up i,ll send it later well in
advance of the first race . My BBOD Today was a "reserve " selection but
its still worth a small bet.
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The Best Bet of The Day

Nottingham 4.35 Analyze
( Each Way IF 16 Runners, Win Only if less than
16 runners)
(Only use 1 Point for this Bet if its Each
Way. Thats 0.5 points each way or 1 point win)
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The "Each Way Double " of the Day

Good Oppurtunities for some Each Way Doubles that should be reasonably risk
free and could reward multiples.

Newbury 2.50 Izdiham
Hamilton 6.30 Laurel Dawn
Hamilton 9.05 Polish Corridor
3 x e/w doubles
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The Exchange Files/ DRV

Newbury

Betting Forecast: 11/8 Rag Top, 13/8 Queen's Victory, 7/1 Capponicus, 12/1
Wittily, 14/1 Hilarious, 20/1 Princess Tavery.

2.20= RAG TOP Won a bad race but has been described as one of Hannons
Nicest 2 year olds. However, She runs into one of Channons Best in QUEENS
VICTORY. Nothing else matters in this race. The Big Advantage of experience
goes to RAG TOP , as Queens Victory is unraced. She does however get 6lbs
in weight to help. Its the age old argument. 8 Times out of 10 its best to
stay with experience in these races, but the word I,ve had about Channons
tells me that this is one of the 2 times out of 10 that you shoud perhaps
go with the unraced horse. Force me for a selection and its QUEENS VICTORY
But you can go straight to the work house betting 13/8 on unraced horses
against first time out winners and my Head says watch and learn rather than
Bet. Both horses are strongly fancied.
======================


Betting Forecast: 6/4 Izdiham, 5/2 Burning Sun, 5/1 Bright Green, Wiseguy,
10/1 Magic Moon, 20/1 Popocatepetl, 25/1 Shakwaa, 33/1 Overstrand, 50/1
Incorporation, 100/1 Ella Carisa, Oops, Open Outcry.

2.50=I Think the Betting forecast is about right and accurate here. I,d far
rather have IZDIHAM at 6/4 than BURNING SUNSET at 5/2 though. I Think
BURNING SUNSET May be a "thinker " and ungenuine, much as He was visually
impressive the way he ran at windsor when pulling clear with the eventual
winner . BRIGHT GREEN Has ran well enough to be a Menace . I couldnt have
him as the selection, but I certainly wouldnt want to lay him. Stick in an
unraced Stoute horse and its starting to look a Hot Race . IZDIHAM Looks
the most likely winner to me.The Spreads rate him 2 lengths better than
Burning Sunset in their match bet.
======================
Betting Forecast: 11/4 Mubaah, 6/1 Silver Band, Treetops Hotel, 7/1
Marshallspark, 10/1 Chateau Nicol, Jayanjay, Midnight Parkes, 14/1 Border
Artist, Storm Clear, 16/1 Sir Don, 20/1 Ballybunion, Million Percent,
Smirfys Night, 25/1 College Delinquent


3.20 = Well, MUBAAH From Alec Stewarts in a handicap looks very "sexy" and
its clear He is an imposing colt that has a huge chance in a race like
this. Typically "napped" by the paper as well, touted and fancied, and
described as unlucky last time out. It May win, it probably will, but at
11/4 in the Paper ( and theyve been taking 5/2 on betfair) , its excellent
chance has already been reflected in his price . This horse has been raised
5lbs for Being Beaten last time which is perhaps Harsh, and whilst Hes
probably well treated enough to win this, He doesnt have an edge on the
numbers that warrants him going off as short at He probably will,
especially as Hes taking on 3 last time out winners. Its simply a question
of Value and Whether you feel hs value at his price. Personally I Dont,
despite the fact he ought to win.
======================

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Protectress, 11/4 Monturani, 5/1 Atarama, Ballet
Score, 7/1 Maid To Perfection, 33/1 Ellen Mooney, 50/1 Star Of Normandie.

3.50=This is a bit nasty, as there are 7 runners and so many horses mixing
different trips and changing surfaces and it smacks of a Trial race. With
Henry Cecil, and PROTECTRESS, I,ve long since been wary of betting his
horses and assuming they will all run their race , and Shes a Filly that
would not raise an eyebrow if hacking up or dissapointing. BALLET SCORE Has
to prove herself on fast ground , on a drying track in the middle of a
heatwave having won her only race on soft ground. She looks classy though .
I,d also question ATARAMA on the ground, and MONTURANI is a penalised filly
whose trainer says is a "Miler " and is running over 10 furlongs. There
are so many genuine doubts about these that a selection is hard. I,ll be
taking a Low Damage Risk here and laying MONTURANI "place only " on Betfair
at about 2/5 to modest stakes. Wont cost much if i,m wrong in a race that
looks highly speculative. It is interesting though that MONTURANI is a
STRONG Favourite over PROTECTRESS in a match bet with Sporting index and
they do tend to know. Market negatives are the Dunlop Pair Maid to
Perfection and Atarama
======================

Betting Forecast: 9/2 Siena Star, 6/1 Cut Rate, 7/1 Shore Vision, 8/1
Shirazi, 10/1 Coppermalt, 12/1 Irvington, Kew Green, 14/1 Pairing, Zanay,
Zonergem, 16/1 Invitation, Lanos, 20/1 Barton Sands, Fool On The Hill,
Preferred, 25/1 Lady Kinvarrah, Nashira, Pirandello.

4.20= I Couldnt see how anyone could bet in this race and the market agreed
with me with virtually nothing staked on the Contest. The bets early money
was for CUT RATE ( May want softer ground) , ZONERGEM and KEW GREEN But
nothing was being supported Heavily. I Have this down in the "far too hard
" Category. Following the Market may be the best idea
======================

Betting Forecast: 13/8 Hero's Journey, 5/1 King's Thought, 8/1 Copybook,
Unscrupulous, 10/1 Hardrada, 12/1 Alqhutub, 14/1 Rajasthan, Summery, 20/1
Courageous Duke, Tobago Fizz, 25/1 Alashaan, 33/1 Colisay, Hallion, King
Creole, 50/1 Bahamian Sun, Dan Dare, Iced Diamond, Joint Statement,
Kristal Forest, Noble Penny, Sylvan Measure, Taken Aback, Wun Chai.

4.50= Big Field Maiden Race . I,d be inclined to steer away from KINGS
THOUGHT From Ed Dunlops. This is described as a "nice late develloping sort
" but all his form, pedigree and his relations all look to have a soft
ground look to them , and a Kings Theatre colt on fast ground first time
out wouldnt attract me at all . Hes my main "negative " though what I hope
is intelligent assumption . COPYBOOK is an unraced Cecil horse with all the
advantages and worries that comes with Cecil these days. Been a few quid
for that horse . HARDRADA is a horse whose trainer says we wont see the
best of until He "moves up to midle distances " and This trip may still be
on the short side. He has a fitness advantage over many and will run well,
but hes not facing optimum conditions and has to be overlooked. There are
very strong vibes for ALQHUTUB , An unraced Ben Hanbury horse. Hanbury is
more than capable of winning these races with a newcomer. Hes clearly a big
danger IF He can cope with the ground which isnt certain.
HEROS JOURNEY is 13/8 and comes from a Fast Time Maiden ( The form will be
tested by Izdiham in the 2.50 race at Newbury who was 3rd when HEROS
JOURNEY was runner up last time) . His figures automatically make him the
horse that deserves "pole position ". The Big Question, is whether 13/8
truly reflects his chance on a grade 1 track against many Big stable
unraced and lightly raced horses from the likes of Cecil, Dunlop, Hanbury,
Fanshaw, Noseda, Stewart and Charlton. Its not my idea of a 13/8 Fav and
I shant be playing . He does have the best chance though "on the book "
but any number of 4 or 5 could easily Defrock him.
======================

Betting Forecast: 9/4 Michael Maher, 11/4 Scent Of Victory, 7/1 Balerno,
Bojangles, Lishtar, 10/1 Frankskips, 14/1 Sasaram, The Sadler, 20/1 Laud
Karelia, Rose Tea, 100/1 Smiling Applause.

5.20=Like many others, I,ve had a Huge Tip for MICHAEL MAHER Who has been
apparantly working like a Top Class Colt. There are 2 dangers. One is his
ability to handle fast ground . The other are a stream of big stable horses
like Cecils BOJANGLES . The unraced BALERNO From Roger Charltons is a horse
he says may be better with "cut in the ground " and that looks significant
to me and would make him a negative on ground sure to be very quick.
SASARAM is described as potentially a decent "Handicapper " And that may
not be good enough . However there was Betfair Support at big prices on
this horse . Another that was being well backed is Stoutes LISHTAR But he
isnt described as the most "scopy" of horses . SCENT OF VICTORYS Debut run
looked usefull. He was 2nd in a respectable time, the winner ran close in
listed class next time, The 3rd came out and won a fats time maiden and the
7th and 10th have won since . Hes bred to love fast ground as well . He
was then beaten at odds on next time out and regressed . IF We see the
previous SCENT OF VICTORY Today he can easily win, but IF We see his latest
form then He wont. I Cant make my mind up as to which horse we,ll see today
. Many of these may struggle on this fast ground . The message for
MICHAEL MAHER is infectious and I Think He will win but I am concerned
about the Ground.
======================

Nottingham 3.35

Betting Forecast: 4/5 L'Evangile, 7/2 Titchfield, 9/2 Lord Dundee (non
runner), 7/1 No Question, 25/1 Irie Rasta, 100/1 Deep Dale, High Beauty,
Howe Timely, Pomme D'Or

Very Interesting race. You can instantly rule out the 4 horses at 100/1 .
They simply cant win. We are left with 4 possible winners in a 8 runner
race. You can probably also rule out IRIE RASTA at 25/1 as well . This
leaves us with 3 runners.

L,EVANGILE = Rated 97
TITCHFIELD =Rated 80
NO QUESTION=Rated 70

NO QUESTION is another I Cant have. Shes a Filly with mental problems and
she looks a Horse that doesnt want to win. She is proving costly to follow
and has never looked like winning and she has her own ideas about the
game.
This looks a bang match between L,EVANGILE a 4 year old filly , rated 97
conceding 15lbs to a 3 year colt TITCHFIELD Rated 80. There should not be
much between them on ratings , yet one is over 3 times the price , and as
an added "Bonus " is a free bet each way . L,EVANGILE is a decent
progressive filly, but she may not be 100% genuine, shes 0 from 8 and has
twice been beaten at short prices. She no form on fast ground, and whilst a
serious player, the stable had a horse beaten at odds on the other da, and
she could be vunerable to an improving 3 year old.
I Think BOTH LEVANGILE and TITCHFIELD Will improve at this trip, but at the
prices of 4/5 and 7/2, i,d far happier row in with the slowly improving
TITCHFIELD at7/2. Hes just run his fastest time on his latest start when
Finishing quiet fast over what looked an inadequate 12 furlongs. He was
eased at the finish, and whilst not a horse that does a lot in a hurry, he
does have ability and is going the right way and is Bred to relish a step
up in trip. He only looks to have to beat any 1 of the 3 market dangers to
comfortably "place " and I feel he has an excelllent winning chance without
looking a Banker . IF Hes 1/2 "place only " on Betfair, then i,ll bet him
place only as well . My Confidence is boosted by the weakness in NO
QUESTION . The value here is TITCHFIELD Each Way.

I Will be Betting TITCHFIELD Each Way IF He is available at 5/2 or better
, which must be a Major doubt now.

xxxStop Pressxxx Another Scrubber has pulled out making this 7 runners and
Now NO BET ADVISED
======================
Nottingham 4.35

Betting Forecast: 11/2 Analyze, 13/2 Fife And Drum, 8/1 Ascari, Distinctly
Well, 10/1 Billy Bathwick, East Cape, Miss Glory Be, 14/1 May Queen
Megan, Mythical King, Regency Red, 16/1 Luxor, Quiet Reading, Who Goes
There, 20/1 Bee J Gee, Bonds Gully, Elgria.

Not a simple race to sort, but 11/2 about ANALYZE is big. These are perfect
conditions for him , 10f, fast ground, hes running Big Numbers on the Clock
and His chance depends on Dean Corby getting enough cover and unleashing
him with a well timed run. Hes taking a massive drop in class, having
recieved weight in 0-90 class when rated "70" to Conceeding weight to
inferior horses here . Corby is massive value for his 7lb claim and I Think
this will win. I,m most afraid of BILLY BATHWICK , But I cant have Fife and
Drum, Ascari or Distinctly Well. ANALYZE at 11/2 is a value bet in my
opinion. I,d have him in at 100/30 Favourite if I priced this up.
======================
Account
Account Bets= -6.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 19.94
Best E/W Double= -1.39
Negatives =136 Succesful from 153 (88.88%)
Ante Post Account= £1900
Ante Post BBOD High Chapperal 8/1( Derby)....