Wednesday April 17th

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The Reccomendations
Account Bets

No Account Bet


The Best Bet of The Day
Beverley 4.10 Olivia Rose ( Each Way)

Ive just done Beverley in the "Exchange Files " today as Betfairs been down
most of the morning and Newmarket was typically a Vile card with money for
about 20 horses in each race. There are very few conclusions to be drawn
today at either meeting and it looks impossible to me . Keep Stakes Low. My
Best Bet of the Day is probably worth a small bet each way if you can get
about 6/1 to your money. Good recent run over conditions not ideal, I think
this trip and its extended 100 yards ought to suit and She has a very live
chance in an open race.
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The Strongest " Negative " of the Day
Beverley 3.35 Trouble Mountain
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Yesterdays Summary
Winner at 7/4 with the Only Reccomendation, but Nice to see it win very
easily and beat the favourite. Certainly didnt see the guineas winner at
Newmarket yesterday in the Nell Gwyn. Nottingham results were good fo
Bookmakers so the best thing you could have done was to bet the BBOD and
then shut shop for the afternoon. Were doing nicely at +22.90 Points with
the BBODs, and although a large slice of that was Miracle Islands 20/1 win,
the fact is that were still winning aside from that, at Starting Price,
during the hard part of the season when Horses fitness is in doubt .
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Ante Post
Watch

Just Having Look at the positions for the Current
Classics coming up in the next few weeks.

1000 Guineas May 5th

BEST ODDS: Queen's Logic 5/2 Gossamer 11/4 Quarter Moon 10/1 Revealing
12/1 Protectress 14/1 Silent Honor 16/1 Maryinsky 20/1, Kazzia 20/1 , 25/1
Half Glance , Barzar 33/1, Night Sky 33/1 .

The Fillies Classic betting has been dominated for months by Queens Logic
And Gossamer . You can read gallop reports and trainer comments all day
long about both, but they are basically meaningless . At This stage, I
would not want a strong bet on either, Yet I Cant see a Value bet against
either. The Vibes about QUEENS LOGIC ( Whom I certainly prefer to Gossamer)
are that she may get beaten on Saturday in the Fred Darling, her prep race.
That may or may not matter anyay. What worrys me about Gossamer, is that
although shes reported as working well, They have consistently stated she
has not "grown " over the winter and she may not have trained on as well as
Queens Logic. There is also the big doubt that Fast Ground wont show Her in
her best light and that her beloved soft ground wont have any chance of
happening at Newmarket in 3 weeks time . QUARTER MOON Has a complete soft
ground and Middle Distance pedigree and she surely is a far better bet at
8/1 in the Oaks than she is here at 10/1. The game with her, bearing in
mind that the 1000g is the best Oaks Trial, is to wait util she runs at
Newmarket, and If she runs a great race in the Guineas, then bet her
straight away for the Oaks before the Sheep move in the next day.
I Cant see her beating Queens Logic over 8 furlongs on fast ground at
Newmarket though. I Certainly couldnt bet REVEALING when Cecil is saying
his string are behind schedule. This has done nothing but win a maiden and
is only here on reputation. Similar comments apply to PROTECTRESS , Who is
another once raced Cecil Maiden winner. This horse, is soft ground all the
way through. Hector Protector her sire was a soft ground horse whose
prodginy so far are soft ground favoured, ( Look at yesterdays Flop Prince
Hector who hated fast ground when gambled) , Rainbow Quest the Dam Sire
was a mudlark and a strong influence for soft ground, and the half sister,
Armiger loved the mud. I Cant see her winning either. In Conclusion, with
18 days left, I cant see past QUEENS LOGIC as the likely winner , but
Nothing appeals as likely to shorten significantly , There is not a Natural
"arb" and I,d be inclined to wait to see how the rest of the Trials go .


2000 Guineas May 4th

BEST ODDS: Hawk Wing 13/8 Johannesburg 5/2 (* With a Run) Love Regardless
8/1 Naheef 10/1 Dubai Destination 12/1 King Of Happiness 12/1 Rock Of
Gibraltar 14/1 Tendulkar 16/1 Comfy 25/1. Western Verse 25/1.

The 2000 Guineas is dominated by the O Brien trained HAWK WING , And I
would not care to oppose him. I was looking at him at about 5/2 a few weeks
ago with a View to laying him back at a shorter price nearer the day, But I
have not bothered. What I have done, which may be a free £100, or a
disaster waiting to happen, is to lay Johannesburg at 20/1 to £100 , which
I did on April 11th when Told he certainly will NOT Run at Newmarket. That
could yet be a miserable bet that costs me 2k . I should be ok though and
i,ve been assured he cant run there.
LOVE REGARDLESS was backed from 16/1 to 8/1 after a Major Tipping line
advised the bet ante post recently . He looks a very high class horse and
one of the most interesting ante post gambles of the year. DUBAI
DESTINATION is only quoted in one bookmakers prices, and bearing in mind
that hes twice the price on betfair he must be considred a doubtfull
starter . I Have backed KING OF HAPPINESS at 18/1 to lay back after Jock
told me he would be gambled. I,ve already laid him back at 14/1 and 13/1 to
ensure a free bet at about 9/2 . I Didnt want him around my neck before the
Craven tommorow when he could Flop. I Dont have a problem laying them back
quickly for a small free bet, rather than wait weeks. There are so many non
triers in this game, that any free bets need to be taken quickly and
arranged asap , and thats the other side of the coin for me and the Silver
Lining in the game. You dont even need to worry about horses being injured,
and If you use betfair to bet and lay back, Your Betting bank there is kept
topped up and funds are not held seperately till after the race . Ive done
that with King of Happiness and I dont expect him to win the Guineas, but
far more relevant is that I dont need to care now. The 2000 looks hard to
me and May well be left to HAWK WING at this stage, unoriginal as this may
seem.

The Derby June 8th

BEST ODDS: High Chaparral 6/1 Hawk Wing 6/1 Naheef 12/1 Right Approach 14/1
Shaanmer 25/1 Sorcerous 25/1 Dubai Destination 33/1 Tikkun 33/1 Hathaal
33/1 Ballingarry 33/1 Hills Of Gold 33/1 Dubai Excellence 33/1

The Advice on Monday to bet HIGH CHAPPERAL at 8/1 was good advice. Nick Fox
did you a favour in yesterdays Post advising you to bet him at 6/1 for the
Derby. This Horse looks the Real Deal to me , and Even If you only got 7/1
when betting him, You can lay him at 6/1 NOW at Betfair ensuring a 1 or 2
points free Bet . Thats excellent business. I Dont Think the Horse can
shorten dramatically until after the 2000 guineas, Nor can it drift . I
would be inclined to lay this bet back before the guineas , If You want to.
I may yet keep the bet as I Think both the Time of his trial run, and the
Manner of victory was scintilating and He looks a very serious Horse to me
. The Horse cant be backed at bigger than 5/1 at the moment and This Looks
a wonderful bet at the moment .
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The Exchange Files
Beverley 1.55

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Woodland River, 7/2 Kingsdon, Rymer's Rascal, 8/1
One Dinar, Shining Oasis, 16/1 Peter's Imp, 25/1 Confey Cracker, Erupt,
Frankincense, Future Coup, Mundo Raro, Oriole, Shamwari Song, Summer
Bounty, White Star Lady, 33/1 Bee Health Boy, Mai Tai.

I Dont like RYMERS RASCAL . Not only is he a "soft " ground horse, he
always needs two runs to be cherry ripe and doesnt hit form till July most
years . I Would not want to "lay" him though as there is noi money for
KINGSDON at all, and with the Fav drawn very badly, You may not have that
many on your side to save you .ONE DINAR is too much of a dissapointment
and a hard ride. He would have a great chance on some of his formthough and
this wont take much winning . Some of these are garbage. The Post are spot
on here with WOODLAND RIVER. He is a certainty IF retaining ability and
overcoming a bad draw. Hes had a wind problem. A 174 Day abscence must have
meant they have cured that minor problem, and "fresh " may be the best time
to catch him. Thats a worry though, as is his downgrade to Mick Easterby
who is licenced to do whatever he likes and can never be predicted. There
was a dilemma here in the market. There were many wanting to back WOODLAND
RIVER To large stakes, but several who were prepared to accomodate them ,
mainly down to the Draw. There was a £1000 bet at 7/2 laid, a £ 2000 at 9/2
requested , and at the moment the supporters of the horse outweigh the
opposers. SAMWAHRI SONG is the best backed outsider

Strong Positives=Woodlands River
Positives=Samwari Song
Negatives=Rymers Rascal+Shining Oasis
Strong Negatives=Kingsdon
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Beverley 2.25

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Change Of Heart, 100/30 Inch Island, 8/1 Eastern
Magenta, Passionate, Wroot Danielle, 12/1 Assuage, Whittle Warrior, 14/1
Angel Isa, 16/1 Dasar, 25/1 Elsie B, 33/1 Bernice.

INCH ISLAND is a "turtle island " who possibly wont appreciate this fast
ground. I,d be against him on fast ground.
The main money, But theres not been much of that anyway, has been for the
experienced INCH ISLAND and WROOT DANIELLE, Although CHANGE OF HEART The
unraced easterby filly is modestly popular. Watch for a market move for
ANGEL ISA, as shes being the subject of requests under her paper price and
the owners of this filly have a real reputation for big priced gambles.

Strong Positives=None
Positives=Angel Isa+Wroot Danielle
Negatives=Assuage
Strong Negatives=Eastern Magenta
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Beverley 3.00

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Danehill Miss, 5/1 Lady At Leisure, 7/1 Mambee, 8/1
Kenley Lass, 9/1 Bijou Rock, 12/1 Axford Lord, Razotti, 14/1 Quicks The
Word, 16/1 Compton Bay, Donny Bowling.

DANEHILL MISS Has been very weak this morning and trading comfortably
about 3/1 . There has been more late money for her later on and she escapes
being on the negatives list . LADY AT LEISURE has been well backed,a and
wont be 5/1 , But she was only a cheap filly, ran a slow time last time,
seemed to lack any speed at all and I would not risk her myself, even with
the advantage of a previous run

Strong Positives=None
Positives=Lady at Leisure ( market)
Negatives=Lady at Leisure (personal)+Bijou Rock
Strong Negatives=Kenley Lass+Axford Lord
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Beverley 3.35

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Trouble Mountain, 11/2 Ringside Jack, 8/1 Altay,
Heathyards Swing ( Non Runner) Johnson's Point, Sun Bird, Warning Reef,
10/1 Colway Ritz, Dance In The Day, Dee Pee Tee Cee, 16/1 Grub Street,
100/1 Shearwater.

Ive tried very hard to rule as many out here as possible. Not Much Joy.
COLWAY RITZ will be starting his annual pilgramage to the Zetland Gold Cup
at Redcar and wont be cherry ripe. RINGSIDE JACK is a soft ground horse
and can be opposed with Confidence . SUN BIRD Looks high in the weights to
me but has been VERY Well backed . HEATHYARDS SWING was my best bet of the
day but is now a non runner . I Have TROUBLE MOUNTAIN as not well
handicapped. Hes very weak in the market .RINGSIDE JACK Has been the
"money " horse and well backed, but i,m against him on fast ground .
JOHNSONS POINT Has also been very well backed. DANCE IN THE DAY is another
thats been supported and the race has proper strength in depth .

Strong Positives=Sun Bird
Positives=Ringside Jack (market) + Johnsons Point+Warning Reef+Dance in the
Day
Negatives= Ringside Jack (personal)+Colway Ritz
Strong Negatives= Trouble Mountain
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Beverley 4.10

Betting Forecast: 5/1 Adstone Blaze, 7/1 Indelible, Ischia, Olivia Rose,
9/1 Crow Wood, 10/1 Tough Love, 11/1 Natmsky, 12/1 Akeesha, Alrida,
Caterham Common, 14/1 Gruff, 16/1 Woody Bathwick, 20/1 Cumbrian Carleton,
Dizzy Tart, Tap The Stone, 25/1 Little Tobias.

Best advice here is to rule out the Low Drawn horses . I,d suggest the
winner will come from AKEESHA , GRUFF , NATMSKY , WOODY BATHWICK , OLIVIA
ROSE , INDELIBLE , ADSTONE BLAZE , TAP THE STONE and TOUGH LOVE.

ADSTONE BLAZE was backed last night with UK Betting from 4/1 from 5/1 and
has the Draw, but stepping back in trip may cause problems here. There is
very little money for anything here

Strong Positives=None
Positives=Adstone Blaze+Olivia Rose
Negatives=Tough Love+Crow Wood+Ischia +Indelible
Strong Negatives=Natmsky
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Beverley 4.45
Betting Forecast: 5/2 Border Subject, 100/30 Sir Effendi, 7/2 Lascombes,
5/1 Gold Guest, 6/1 Atlantic Ace, 16/1 Hakeem, 20/1 Distant King.

Solid Betting here, money for most of these. I,d say nothing stood out as
out of the ordinary.

Strong Positives=Sir Effendi
Positives= Atlantic Ace
Negatives=Border Subject +Lascomes
Strong Negatives=None
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Beverley 5.15
Betting Forecast: 3/1 Island Flight, 9/2 Litany, 5/1 Dash For Gold, 5/1C
Researcher, 12/1 Bold Doll, Caitland, Daisy Buttons, Honey's Gift, Miss
Uluwatu, 159/10 Diva La Vida.

I Spent some time on this race last night and I couldnt belive how many
mules, non stayers and doubtfull progressive horses there were . It looks
a roll of the dice monopoly . The Clever money has been for HONEYS GIFT and
DAISY BUTTONS, But clever as it mat be, its certainly not come in
wheelbarrows, its come in egg cups and not much money for anything here .

Strong Positives=None
Positives=Daisy Buttons+Honeys Gift
Negatives=Bold Doll
Strong Negatives=Caitland
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Account
Account Bets= -2.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 22.90
Best E/W Double= -1.67
Negatives =106 Succesful from 117