Wednesday July 17th
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Account Bets
No Account Bet
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The Best Bet of The Day

Yarmouth 4.00 (3) Kelsey Rose

I was tempted by the 20/1 Ladbrokes were offering about Young Lion in the
3.30 at Yarmouth, But felt that was pushing my luck rather too much. I
also considered several more on what is a trappy day again, But I have had
to come down on the side of KELSEY ROAD as the BBOD.
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Yesterdays Summary

TIMING Won at 9/2 from an Early Price of about 7/1 and I was very pleased
with that performance as She clearly had plenty in hand, and we have been
farming these staying races recently . Its been a very good period with
winners at 4/1, 11/2 and 9/2 , all very easy winners and I,m at the Top of
my Form at the moment now the Fast ground is here. To Be Honest I was very
dissapointed not to land the Double when SOLTAAT Was beaten in a photo
finish, that looked so unluccky in running and i cant belive i,m still
losing on the animal when i,ve backed him . No doubt the value will not be
there next time . Lets hope the rain stays away. I,m the Last person to
get complacent though, All I want is Profit with the smallest Risk possible
and I,ll tread carefully and wont start throwing away silly fun bets or
Guesses. Enjoy this while it lasts as September and October time i,ll be
Protecting our profit as much as Possible. The Accounts Looking very
Healthy at the moment and We just need to keep this up .
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Todays Racing

Doing some Skimming through a few races, Jotting down thoughts as I go
along today. Call it an Unplugged DRV . Just typing when I have something
to type , and when its done i,ll look back and try and Find a BBOD
Somewhere.

Catterick 2.20 AMY CAP and DIMITRI Looks different class, but BOTH Are Bred
for soft ground, and neither will want the Ground Fast and I just wonder if
either or both may Flop. Cant find a sensible alternative, but neither will
carry my money and neither will relish fast ground

Catterick 2.50 HIBERNATE is a certainty on quite recent form IF He
retains his ability. He will either Make all and win easily running these
into the ground OR He wont have the speed anymore. I strongly feel he has
still got the speed. You only have to forgive him 2 bad runs for me, as he
wasnt "off" 3 starts ago. You can also blame soft ground and stiff tracks
for recent bad runs . Youd think this sharp track would suit, but hes been
here 5 times and been hammered here 5 times before. I Cant see anything to
beat Him. If he gets beat, I may never bet him again but the horse has been
kind to me over the years and He is the best horse in the race .

Catterick 3.20 I Think its time to Dump BIRDWATCHING as this has been
running very well on softish ground and this will be very different ,and
Hes unproven . GENERAL SMITH Could be in the same boat ground wise, but my
hunch is that He will relish this faster ground, unproven so he is.Didnt
like the race, theres a draw bias towards Low numbers, and whoever gets
shafted at the start wont have much time to recover .Several in form
horses, nothing between many of them and the race soon bored me.

Catterick 3.50 The race is a total menace, I cant find a single negatives
at the weights. I would put CHARGE as most interesting if there is money
for him but This isnt a race that can be whittled down to few enough
runners for me

Catterick 4.20 It does look a Match between 11/8 REFA 'AH and 6/4 AMUSED .
The market would help . REFA'AH Is a Scopey type and now Ed Dunlop apperas
to be getting over his horses Liver Enzyme problem, he could be a stable to
follow. REFA'AH Was only a length behind Century City at Newmarket last
year . Without seeing REFA'AH in the paddock the race is a guess with
AMUSED Being the slightly more solid of the two. No Bet for me

Catterick 4.50. I Dont like HOWARDS HEROINE. Shes a Miler . Had there not
been so much stamina in the dams side , i,d be swearing TWO MARKS Doesnt
stay this far . I cant have her here at 7/2, shes a "Woodman" , they have
both stamina doubts and resolution question marks and she has been beaten
on her last 6 starts at 8/15 , 3/1 , 6/4 , 2/1 , 6/1 and 9/2 and thats a
bad profile . HAKAM is another "Woodman" and Not proven stamina wise so
i,d keep away from HAKAM as well . CHEYENNE CHIEF Looked rubbish last week
. I Dont fancy PRINCESS GRACE at all and the ground may be too fast for her
.IONA Will want soft ground as well and lack a recent race . SUNNYSIDE
ROYAL Ran well last time and is a stayer which is a big help in this field.

MISSING From Tim Easterbys may have a chance, they paid a lot for this ,
and she was describes as "mentally immature" last year. Shes well regarded,
I expect you can ignore her last race on soft ground, and IF She gets the
trip she must go well. Stamina is much the same as TIMING Yesterday, theres
plenty of stamina in the pedigree, the Dam won over 14 furlongs and she
shouldnt have a problem with this Trip. Watch the market for MISSING as she
has one of the Best profiles in the race.

Yarmouth 2.00 I Have to choose NIGHT PROSPECTOR Here being a colt racing
against a filly, RIVA ROYALE as his main danger. NIGHT PROSPECTOR
apparantly works with 3 year olds and has been flying at home. What
troubles me immensely is that Pip Payne has a 0-54 record this year and
hasnt trained a winner since last October . One or two have ran better
recently and it wont be long before they hit form, but its a serious worry.
RIVA ROYALE is Ian Woods best 2 year old and wont be far away ,but unless I
have really strong reasons to bet fillys against colts, i try my hardest
not To . I Couldnt rule out the 8/1 chance MELROSE PLACE here as this will
be the first chance she gets to race on genuine Fast Ground after rain was
against her at Chester . IF There was a bit of Cash for MELROSE PLACE Shed
appeal each way to small stakes at about 7/1 .

Yarmouth 3.30 Betting Forecast: 100/30 Mr Mahoose, 13/2 Stateroom, 7/1
Lady Pahia, 8/1 Definite Guest, Skylark, 9/1 Pie High, 10/1 Bon Ami,
Pearly Brooks, 14/1 Warden Warren, Young Lion, 16/1 City Of London, 20/1
Caustic Wit, 50/1 Travel Tardia.

Follow The Argument through here and bear with me. This is called the
STANLEY M THREADWELL MEMORIAL HANDICAP . Whose is Stanley Threadwell ? He
was the Best friend, and owner of many horses trained by Clive Brittain.
He died in 1997, and in 1999 PETRUS Won this race for Clive Brittain amid
emotional scenes . Here were the reports after the race back in 1999
.......
"Clive Brittain maintained his winner-a-meeting run at Yarmouth with an
emotionally charged victory from Petrus in the Stanley Threadwell Memorial
Handicap. Clive Brittain trained for the owner, Stanley Threadwell , who
died in 1997 , and they enjoyed big-race success with Jupiter Island, who
won the 1983 Ebor for him and also the Japan Cup when back with his
breeder, Lady Tavistock. Brittain said: "I hate running a horse from out of
the handicap , but I only had the one seven-furlong horse to run when I was
told they were having a memorial race for Stanley. "I had to have a runner,
as Stanley was a dear friend for many many years and I felt that whatever
chance I had today, Stan would be kicking and shoving on mine from up
there. I'm sure he has given him a shout." . Now Today, Clive Brittain
runs the 16/1 chance YOUNG LION and he,ll be very keen to Win with him for
his old mate, and that makes 16/1 a BIG Price today much as this is a tough
race . YOUNG LION Wouldnt be the best handicapped horse in the race, But
hes won twice, once off "79" only 3lbs lower than todays mark, he likes
Yarmouth, loves Fast ground, and If he stays may shock a few here. The
Romantics amongst you may like the 16/1 to celebrate Clive winning the
memorial race for his old Pal .

Yarmouth 4.00 Betting Forecast: 11/10 Half Glance, 11/4 Shararah, 7/2
Kelsey Rose, 8/1 To The Woods, 33/1 Pants.

The First obvious question is WHY is Henry Cecil dropping his Even money
Favourite HALF GLANCE Back to 7f from 10f ? My Old Mentor used to tell me
that the Time to lay them was when they drop in class and drop in trip ,
and HALF GLANCE Does that. People think shes been dissapointing, but shes
been running big numbers over 10f , and How she can be suited to this trip
is beyond me. This was patently too sharp for her in the Nel Gwyn Stakes at
Mewmarket earlier in the year, she had already Won over 7f as a juvenile,
and in the Nel Gwyn she was a beaten favourite and race readers
stated........ " 7f on fast ground was never likely to see her at her best
and she failed to quicken having been short of room. She looked in fine
shape beforehand and will prove much better than this granted a stiffer
stamina test ". Another thing against her is that because she won a Group
3 race as a juvenile she is STILL Forced to carry a 6lbs penalty today
which seems very harsh. Her Fastest two clock times come at races in
excess of a mile and its hard to see Why Cecil has dropped her back in trip
here, especially as Her Full sister was a 12 furlongs winner . PANTS Cant
win at the weights, TO THE WOODS Has no real form to speak of recently and
this race Looks a match between SHARARAH and KELSEY ROSE . tHE "VIBES "
are that
SHARARAH is the horse to bet. This was once raced at 2yrs, and on Her only
start this year she won a maiden impressivly by 5 lengths in a decent time
and rumours at the time were that she was one of Ed Dunlops Better 3 year
olds. She has a few factors against her today . 1) She has to race with a
77 day abscence 2) She has a 4lbs penalty to concede for winning this year
3) She is "wrong" at the weights with KELSEY ROSE 4) She trys a new trip
and 5) Despite his 1st winner in months, Many of Ed Dunlops are still
running below par after a Liver Enzyme problem and Nobody can be sure that
all His horses are Clear and will run to their Full Potential Yet .
SHARARAH is probably a massive danger, But There has to be a right price
and a wrong price, and conceeding the weight from the penalty, and with the
yard still struggling I,m far from certain shes any value at all at around
the 9/4 she will be. I want to take a Chance on KELSEY ROSE Who is a very
tough Filly stepping up in trip after racing mainly at sprint trips. The
fact remains that the 9/4 about SHARARAH Pails into insignificance when you
can bet KELSEY ROAD at 6/1 and 7/1 this morning. She has ran 3 time sat 7f
and the "jurys still out" on her ability to last that trip, but all 3 times
shes tried she has found cconditions against her. The 3 times shes ran at
7f, was her Last start as a juvenile when David Evans said she "hated the
Heavy Ground " . Then, On her 1st run as a 3 year old at Wolverhampton on
sand , she Badly needed the race and was NOT Bred to handle that surface.
Her only other start at 7f came 4 runs ago when the Soft ground at Epsom
was against her, and yet that was still run in a very quick time, and IF
She can clock that time on soft ground at this trip, She looks very
attractive back on fast ground. I Think shes crying out for 7f on fast
ground, and this small field will help a lot. Shes an expert at racing in
small tactical fields and Her Brilliant kid rider Fran Ferris takes off a
further 5lbs. I like her for the following reasons
1) She escaped all penalties that her Rivals are lumbered with]
2) Shes 9lbs better "officially" than Shararah yet gets 4lbs in weight and
5lbs in Her jockeys claims
3) This could be the first time she has ideal conditions, 7f and Fast
Ground
4) Shes running Big Numbers at the moment and at 7f on the wrong ground
5) Shes tough and game
6) In her last 6 starts she has excuses. She raced in Sweeden when "badly
hampered , missing the break and not suited to the very tight track"
according to her Trainer. She the ran on soft ground at Epsom and then
York, which would never have suited her as shes a "Hold up" Horse. She ran
Ok at Yarmouth on her penultimate start and last time She had no chance at
the weights in a Class A race on a front runners track behind Palace
Affair. In fact her latest starts have been in Class A+B+B+A+A+A+A And she
drops down to Class C today.

I Fear SHARARAH, But at thes prices, I Have to play on KELSEY ROSE and make
her the BBOD When I have such strong reasons to oppose the odds on
Favourite . Syhes no certainty but shes an excellent bet here at the 6/1
Shes likely to be. Anything over 7/2 looks value to me.



Yarmouth 5.00 The value is 8/1 MAJOR ATTRACTION . This horse , was the
horse I told you to "save" on in MM 872 at 14/1 as He was a horse that was
"Brilliantly well handicapped off 41 " . He Won nicely but hes a horse that
MUST Have rock hard fast ground. His two subsequent races saw him suffer by
soft ground and Heavy afternoon rain that turned both tracks soft and You
can excuse and ignore his last 2 starts. Hes now only off "43 " today and
IF Mark Brisborne allows him to do his best, then hes a very serious danger
and the Value at 8/1 .

Lingfield 2.10 The Big Buzz is the unraced G. Butler horse ELUSIVE CITY
With Fallon aboard. Reported as very usefull and it will probably be a 6/4
chance and expected to Win with its powerfull conections , and it was
entered in a listed race on Friday .

Lingfield 3.40 I,d be keen to Oppose favourite POINT OF DISPUTE at a Mile
as Makin says he wants " a stiff 6f or an easy 7f " and this horse may run
out of Puff in the closing stages. The choice isnt straightforward as it
mixes Horses with different ages and trips and profiles in a small melting
Pot. MAN OF DISTINCTION May be the most likely to have the required Class
to win But its not a race that many can be ruled out from.

Lingfield 4.10 I Couldnt oppose E MINOR at these weights but shes a bit
tempremental and is sure to be underpriced Here and wont offer much value.

Kempton 7.50 . Yes I will be betting HELLO SWEETY at 20/1 today. Old
Members from a year ago will remember We backed this when it won at 25/1
last year and I AM Betting this again under Exact conditions to then. Its a
tough race, I,m scared of many, most notably CONUNDRUM Who I knew couldnt
win last time out on Soft Ground, and I may trade him to small stakes as
well. The vibes are right for HELLO SWEETY to small stakes and I know its
been working well again in preperation for this.
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ACCOUNT
Account Bets= -6.00
Best Bet of the Day= + 39.52
Best E/W Double= + 3.11
Negatives =136 Successful from 153 (88.88%)
Ante Post Account= £1600