Best Bet of the Day

No Bet

Very Short and Sweet today. I detested these cards the moment I saw them and have no interest in small field races and playing guessing games. I nearly had the day off to be honest after the Musselburgh Drama last night alongside Henman'sGame at Wimbledon and Answering e mails, and today's offerings look rather pathetic and it is not the day to give it back to the enemy. Perhaps I am a wimp but last night drained me and I should have put a line through today's pathetic options.

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Personal Bets

I Dont intend having a Bet Today . I Did think about listing my "best" options in order of strength but if i,m not betting then it seems pointless.
If You stuck a Gun to my head and forced a bet, I would suggest a "Novelty " bet.

No Refuge Hamilton 2.15 (Banker)
x
Taffy Dancer
Its Rumoured Brighton 4.30)
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Time N Time Again
Sir Desmond

4 x Trebles will pay a minimum of 35/1 and a maximum of 90/1 depending on results and may be a value bet to watch on a dismal day
Personally I,m just not in a betting mood myself and wont be tempted .

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Yesterdays Summary

The Irony of it all is that a few of you will moan at me in a few weeks time that the profit figure is not as high as expected on the account and I'll think to myself that I wished I'd have Called you back last night during Henmans match and your tea to have an account bet and disrupt your night. On the face of it, a sparkling night and a massive profit from the personal bets, and I know a lot of you had some big wins last night. I have said before countless times that I am a "punter" at heart. I love my bets and my betting. I hate my tipping as it comes with responsibility, and my own betting is far more significant to me than perhaps it should be at times, which is why the "personal bets" are working so well and are so popular at the moment.
We are having a great run really, you won't find many days in the last month where I have lost money myself betting in the "personal bets" column but the really vile things are the account bets and horses that get beaten like Camberley. Over the years I've learnt that many members want a bet and will have that bet regardless of what I say. They will bet my best bet, or anything they like from the message, and they will have their stake on it , and if they like win bets they will bet it to win regardless of the fact its an each way bet , and vice versus. We are all creatures of habit and I've long felt that the account bets were just a silly ritual designed for me to advertise for members and for current and potential new members to deceive themselves that they are any reflection on the service at all. Last night backs that up. Although I was delighted for many of you, and I can't believe the prices last night and I was on them at some very embarrassingly poor prices myself. The Lobby to remove the account bets and stay with the personal stakes is growing fast (admittedly I'm leading the campaign for change) but it can't happen yet. I wont drop those bets till I have them Miles in front and even if that means missing Big winners "On paper" like last night then I'll still do it as I have grown to hate them so much its become a personal challenge. As for the "Personal bets", I have not kept a tally but I bet they are showing a massive profit that runs into thousands since I introduced them a couple of months ago. I doubt anyone has bothered to check but if they have I'd appreciate a nod as to how they are doing.

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Today's racing

Today I will give you some Statistics at the foot of the message for the Coral Eclipse (Runs Saturday) and the John Smiths Magnet Cup on July 12th. These are for your own attention. Personally the Eclipse is rarely a race I bet in and probably wont, but I will in the Magnet cup where the stats, and the vibes all point to Mark Prescott's AUDACIOUS PRINCE who you will see hammered in the betting when there are any prices. Whatever happens, if you can get a double figure price about this horse before July 12th then you have some great business. It's a good tactical move my me to include the Stats today as it makes the message long and readable as I have very little else to offer you today.


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BRIGHTON

Brighton's card is a Mess today and the weather needs a careful watching eye. Rain is forecast and it's a day where you can only wait and see what happens.

In the 2.30 BEYOND CALCULATION for me (This would not want heavy rain). I fancied this to beat Sir Sandrovitch last time and backed him each way and in the end he was unlucky and could have easily won that day. The fact there are 7 runners that are tightly matched does not inspire confidence but this is a good consistent fast ground sprinter at this time of year and he would be my choice. I don't plan to bet him myself as I think he is priced up fairly and not generously.

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In the seller at 3.00 they are a bunch of un-gamely Dogs. Take away his latest start on sand and BAR OF SILVER would be quite a shorter price in this race, and I suppose he is the danger to MABEL RILEY. Looking at MABLE RILEY, Whom I make the selection, She has the early look of a horse that may prefer small fields in her career and if you isolate her runs with less than 10 runners she does look a little better . This ought to be perfect for her and with arguably the best jockey in the race, and a fitness inducing run 6 days ago I would marginally prefer her in the absence of any illuminating market move for anything else.

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Brighton 4.30

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Analogy, 4/1 Flying Spirit, 11/2 Taffy Dancer, 13/2 It's Rumoured, 15/2 Major Attraction, 9/1 Birth Of The Blues, Sebring, 16/1 Mighty Pip, 20/1 Blue Streak.

In the last (4.30) you would really be better off with a 3 year old, and ANALOGY did us proud last time when winning for us, but I don't care to ask him to repeat that today. I much prefer to just suggest 2 small bets on TAFFY DANCER and IT'S RUMOURED at 4/1 and 6/1. TAFFY DANCER ran a very neat race last time over the wrong trip. I laid him that day and he scared me a bit. This horse won at Brighton last year and then suffered a very painful injury to his hind leg last year and had all his skin ripped off his leg and he spent most of last year convalescing. He is pretty lightly raced still because of that and I would fancy a small bet at 5/1 to beat the Favourite, who is one of two 3 year olds favoured by the weights.

Of these 3 year olds you have ANALOGY who we backed last time. He looked completely beaten and likely to be unplaced at Ayr before an amazing run to get up on the line. He drifted badly in the market that day and you can easily be forgiven for thinking this drop back in trip is against him. I'm not sure I buy that theory as his previous race was over today's C+D and he impressed me enough that day ( Beaten by a well handicapped rival pulling 7l clear of the 3rd) to make him a bet at Ayr. He has a good chance but he left me with the feeling that I was lucky to get anything out of him at Ayr and that I should not ask him again to win, despite the fact Prescott trains him. The other 3 year old is ITS RUMOURED who comes from an "out of form" and small stable, but whom ran far better than expected last times and Had a Mark Prescott horse repeated what he had achieved last time then the pundits would be getting very exited about him at a 3rd of his current price. He is not a bad bet at 6/1. I think I would stay with 2 small split stakes bets on TAFFYS DANCER at 4/1 and IT'S RUMOURED at 6/1 and if one of them wins its a 2/1 payout.

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HAMILTON

2.15 I Think NO REFUGE will win this race and Evens seems a fair price. Since Kris Kin won the Derby there has been a mood change in the game by thousands of people to firmly bet Kieran Fallon blind, and i,m finding his rides are now being priced up far shorter than they are entitled to be and there will come a point , if it has not happened already when his rides are worth opposing. Thats not why I oppose his mount OTOTOTM today. I like him, in fact I backed him last time and tipped him in the Drv. I just think NO RETREAT is a better horse and the likely winner. I Dont plan to get involved though, i,ve seen these short shots beaten and They dont appeal to me anymore .

3.15 I usually leave these races to the "Draw-bores" but the case for TIME N TIME AGAIN is strong. Drop in Class, recent run, Good Draw, Unlucky penultimate start, recently dropped 3lbs, he has a nice profile and i,m selecting him.
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Statistics for Upcoming Ante Post Races


CORAL ECLIPSE STAKES (Saturday)

1) 9 of the Last 12 winners had won that year
2) 11 of the Last 12 Winners had ran in a Group Race Last time out (10 of those 11 at least placed)
3) Most Eclipse winners run at Epsom or Ascot, or Both that year
4) The race used to be the natural race for Derby Winners, but since the King George that's changed
The last horse to complete the Derby/Eclipse Double was Nashwan in 1989. In the 1990,s only 2 Derby
Winners tried, and failed. However, 16 Eclipse winners had run 2nd in the Derby in that or any other year.
5) In the Last 26 renewals, 23 were won by either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd favourite.
6) The average SP is about 6/1
7) AGE Records
3 year olds = 4 Wins from 28 Runners
4 year olds= 4 Wins from 37 Runners
5 year olds= 4 Wins from 16 Runners
8) Foreign Raiders
France has not won since 1961. Since 1991 the French Form Record in the race is 8667
Ireland Have Won 11 times. Since 1991 they have an 185135712 Record
9) Stoute and Godolphin Have the Best Records
10) The LAST 16 Winners HAD ALL Ran 2, 3 or 4 times that Year.
11) This is a Tough Stamina Test for Milers. Most winners complete their prep races over 10/12 furlongs

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JOHN SMITHS MAGNET CUP JULY 12TH

1) 10 of the last 12 winners ran on 3 or 4 Occasions that year
2) 8 of the last 12 winners had won that year
3) 8 of the last 12 winners were placed in the First 4 last time out
4) Best Trial is the Honk Kong Trophy H'cap (3 of the last 8 winners ran in the race)
5) 3 year olds have the Best Record with 5 winners in the last 10 years from only 18% of the runners
6) 5 year olds fare better than 4 year olds
7) Horses aged 6 or more can be overlooked (The last 6 year old won 33 years ago)
8) Fancied horses did fare well but lately that has changed with 3 of the last 4 winners starting 20/1 or over
9) Draw= in the last 12 years, 7 winners (and 5 placed horses) were drawn between 6, 7, 8 and 9
10) Horses Drawn in double figures are strongly disadvantaged. Stall 1 does well with 2 wins and 5 placing in 11 years.
11) Horses Drawn 10 or above, have only won once in 11 years (5 have placed from 44 places)
12) The 2002 and 2003 winners broke a weight trend. They became the 3rd and 4th horses in the last 12 years to carry over 9st
13) The other 8 winners carried less than 9st. Horses don't win from "Out of the handicap"
14) Horses that have won over at least 9 furlongs have the best record