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Coming to the End.

Coming to the end now and the start of the sand season. There will be no message Friday as Doncaster is always impossible on this day every year and there is no chance of a bet. There are dirty big field juvenile maidens , a lack of handicaps on the card and what handicaps there are will be impossible . The Flat ends on Saturday with the November handicap and I may use Friday to send a bet for that as my second job after this message goes out is to do the race in detail. My First job is to tax the car which is vile. Today's business will hopefully pay for that. Incidentally apologies for a lack of Message on Tuesday. I got to a stage where I knew I was wrong and I knew that mistakes were made and that as a meeting I had got nothing worthwhile to send. The Current Pin Code for the 0871 line (13579#) is in operation from today and that will stay about 4 weeks. From Monday morning the sand season starts and from an "account" perspective I will be starting from £0.00 again. The Personal bets will be the Account. The Stakes will range up to £200 for the strongest of bets but I doubt I will touch that dizzy height. The average bet will be as it is at the moment between £30 and £50 and lets hope we can rack up a good profit again. I Will be taking it very carefully at Wolverhampton But I feel fine at the other tracks and I am only betting when I do not have to guess.


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Monday's Summary

ROTUMA was a £15 e/w loser for us at about 6/1. He was basically hampered 3 times and had to give up once his chance had gone. He was certainly unlucky and better than his final placing but while I'm 90% sure he would not have won, I am 75% certain he would have been placed. We have not had the greatest luck with any of our last 3 bets (Golden Chalice, Carrowdore and Rotuma) but that's par for the course and it has not taken a shine off a good month and at the prices were playing at we have plenty of chances to win decent money and I'm really happy with my form still.

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Personal Bets

3 Bets in 2 races

Musselburgh 1.50 (1) Malapropism £25 Win (Take 11/2 +)

Musselburgh 1.50 (3) Wicked Uncle £15 Win (Take 3/1 + )

Musselburgh 4.00 (7) Donna's Double £5 Win (Take any 12/1 +)


Today's Strategy

Bearing in mind the time of year and all other relevant issues, I want to stake about £45 today on the account. I also want to "split stake" the 1.50 at Musselburgh as I think there are 2 runners and at 4/1 and 6/1 there is enough meat on the bones to do that. This way should Malapropism win we have enjoyed a profitable day of over £100 and that should repair all the damage done by the 2 losers recently that cost £70 on the account and also the Carrowdore bet that was not on the account. If we can get that back today then it would be great. Wicked Uncle will assure a small profit on the day which is also important and even if we blow the whole £45 on the day, it is important to remember that the £30 Rotuma stake, the £40 Golden Chalice stake, and the Carrowdore stake (Assume about £50) were more than paid for by the £200 winnings last Friday from Yorker. I could claim that as great staking but it is not. It is simply the Luxury of betting at big prices and not having to get in the gutter at the 6/4 and below level where the average punter swims and drowns. I also want to get something out of DONNA'S DOUBLE today. I can hear your rumblings at that, but he is a 14/1 chance so please bear with me. If he wins and I think he just might, then there will be an almighty "told you so" tomorrow.

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Today's Analysis


Today I have 3 x Drv's. Strong preferences in the 1.50 for MALAPROPISM
At 6/1 and Wicked Uncle at 4/1. I have given up with the 2.55 as it has beaten me and the 4.00pm I Have nominated Donna's Double and Border Terrier as the horses to be on. I Am ignoring the juvenile races as they have no way of being sorted and I am skipping the 2 mile listed race as well where it is all about tactics, pace and jockeyship and I can not predict races like that and refuse to accept that these things can be predicted enough to make a judgement call.



Musselburgh 1:50 November Handicap (Class D) (3yo+, 0-85) 5f GOOD

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Wicked Uncle, 11/2 Officer's Pink, 13/2 Malapropism, 8/1 College Hippie, Highland Warrior, 10/1 Chispa, Sir Sandrovitch, 12/1 Blessingindisguise, Columbine, 14/1 College Maid, Get Stuck In, 20/1 I T Consultant, 25/1 Grasslandik, Robwillcall, 50/1 Pirlie Hill, 66/1 Alfie Lee, Cyber Cinders.

Selection - Malapropism + Wicked Uncle (Danger)

This might be easier than it looks. I think betting 3 year olds off Topweight in sprint handicaps against older horses is not the most pleasant of hobbies but if there is one 3 year old in this race then it has to be MALAPROPISM rather than OFFICERS PINK as his form is far better and I certainly count him as the horse you have to bet . Although usually I prefer an older horse, this is a very unusual 0-85 handicap as MALAPROPISM the Topweight has 10lbs more than the 2nd rated horse in the race and that is a Gulf in class unusual in this sort of race and it could be very significant. It has forced 6 horses out of the handicap and it basically means that he has a better chance than most 3 year olds would have.

MALSPROPRISM ended his juvenile year rated 78 in 2002. This year he took a few runs to find form and he dropped to "69" when he won on his favoured fast ground at Bath. He shot up the handicap a fair bit during the summer but was really consistent with form figures of 4 3 3 3 2 4 3 and he was back on his old 2 year old mark of "78" when winning again at Goodwood at the end of August. His lowest rated opponents that day was a 20/1 chance rated only "57" but in the context of this race the whole field today only average "57" on the A.O.R's and that was a far better race than this. Ignore his next Sandown start on soft ground, far more relevant is his 3rd at Ayr in an 18 runner 0-85 where the lowest rated animal was rated 68. That's quite significant. His Lowest rated opponent was a "68" rated horse and yet today only 3 horses that he faces are rated higher than that and this is his easiest race in a long time. Two starts ago at Ascot he clearly struggled in a 0-106 Handicap, which makes his 0-73 opponents today look very poor indeed and last time again he faced 0-100 Class . He is your archetypal A.O.R. bet that stands out and he looks the winner. The Doubts about him are as follows. Has he had too hard a season? Has he run himself out of form? Can he carry weight? Can he win in a big field? Watching his last run on Video it was clear he was outclassed but he was only beaten 4 lengths and ran as credibly as you may expect in a 0-100 race and from 2lbs out of the handicap. You will not know if this is "one race too many" until after the race but few signs were shown that it might be. He has never carried 10 stone before and that is an issue but he has earnt it and only carries it as He meets such inferior opposition. I would far rather have them conceding weight to inferior opposition than getting weight from Classier types.
It is true he has yet to win in a huge field but he has ran very well in far better races than this with many runners and the Class and the Draw will eliminate most of these and it looks like it might ride like a smaller field anyway. He is not Bomb Proof but he is the Class horse by a long way hence his 10lbs superiority at the top of the weights.

Steve Golling's WICKED UNCLE is a very big danger and at his current 7/2 and 4/1 makes a very sensible saver in a race where both runners stand out .I can not help being drawn to WICKED UNCLE and I think he has one of the best chances in the race. He has been running very well in better races than this and has a good draw and a top jockey. He has also won off a 5lbs higher mark before which makes him well handicapped and the way he came away at Newcastle to finish 2nd to Carribean Coral when drawn on his own stands side prompted almost every notebook in the land to have his name scribbled in. That was 2 starts ago and that was his first race for Steve Gollings as Dandy Nichols had trained him without managing to get the horse into form. He ran well when 3rd at York last time and that puts him here with the strongest credentials. Without boring you and discussing premonitions and possibilities, if I have one reservation about him it is the fact that he will be flying at the finish and get there too late. That is my main worry. I am happy he has the pace to go this quick at a place like this but I just think he will be flying late and look in trouble 2 furlongs out before trying to win and storming home in the last 20 yards. It would be very easy to ride this horse badly today. I have to marginally prefer MALPROPISM but I want WICKED UNCLE on my side as well.

There are any number of horses that could pop up here at 16/1 or 20/1 and that's the nature of the beast in races like this at 5f but although betting favourites in these sorts of races is not easy to stomach I can not see a horse I am scared of. I do not like SIR SANDROVITCH who I feel is best on a turning track. COLLEGE HIPPIE looks outclassed. He has been unplaced in all 6 Class D handicaps he has run in and all 15 Handicaps he has ran in. I agree with the Racing post that the well handicapped CHISPA Might find this 5f trip too sharp in this company. I Hate horses coming back in trip like HIGHLAND WARRIOR and I really can not have him at 5f after he has spent his entire career at longer trips. It has to be MALPROPRISM and WICKED UNCLE as the sensible bets. CHISPA could be the biggest threat to our money.


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Musselburgh 2:55 Tote Bookmakers Showcase Handicap (Class C) (3yo+, 0-90) 2m GD-FM

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Escayola, 5/1 Kristensen, 11/2 Archduke Ferdinand, Clarinch Claymore, 7/1 Overstrand, Ravenglass, 14/1 Champion Lion, Spa Lane, 20/1 Spainkris, 25/1 Fiddlers Creek, 33/1 Ringside Jack.

Selection - No Bet

I find this mind boggling and impossible. ESCAYOLA fits the recent pattern of recent winners in that he is a lightly raced improving sort that has won in weaker grade and steps up and tries to win this race. That has been the recent pattern as past winners. 3 of the last 5 winners had never won in better than Class F and then came and took this Class C race and from the other 2 past another came only from Class E. This suggests that ESCAYOLA has the hand of history behind him and can not be ignored as he is the only 3 year old, and they are the favoured age group here, and he is the fastest improving horse. That said there is CLEAR BLUE Water with what he has done and what he is being asked to do. His rise in the handicap has gone from 55 to 62 to 67 to 72 and it is now 82 and that is a fast rise indeed. His Opponents have so far been far inferior. He has met and beaten with modest A.O.R's of 57.14, 68.33, 62.10 and 65.00 yet today he faces horses rated 85 and 90 (Today's AOR is irrelevant as the aggregates are corrupted by 2 horses rated so low and out of the handicap that it is not an accurate guide). Compare that with a horse like KRISTENSEN who has just ran 3rd in a Cesarewitch with A.O.R's of 89.54 and against animals that ESCAYOLA has only looked at from across a field. I am utterly and totally confused as to where to go with this race. A Bet requires a decision about the favourite, and I am as close to wanting to oppose him as I am in wanting to bet him. I am confused I have to admit .Take KRISTENSEN as an example as a possible each way alternative. He comes into this race 16lbs higher than a handicap mark he ever won from before, He has not won in a year, He has a dreadful strike rate, his stable cant train a winner at the moment, He is from the wrong side of the weights in this race and his record in Class C races is 0 from 11 yet he dwarfs what The "statistically favoured" and improving ESCAYLOA Has ever done before. Example 2 is ARCHDUKE FERDINAND who has won a Class B handicap and is so far superior a horse to the favourite that he shouldn't be seen chomping on the same Hay or even be grazing in the same field as him. Yet ARCHDUKE FREDINAND has not won in years and flopped last time and has never ran well at this time of year. I have to draw a line under this race as I really have no idea how I can begin to grab a way into the race. This race is a menace. I am confused, bamboozled, I am Deceived, I am misled, hoodwinked, excluded, I am perplexed, mystified, tricked, baffled and bewildered. If you want a bet I'm no help to you here at all.

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Musselburgh 4:00Balcarres Handicap (Class E) (3yo+, 0-70) 1m4f GD-FM

Betting Forecast: 6/1 Compton Drake, 7/1 Border Terrier, Pearson Glen, 8/1 Chaka Zulu, Party Ploy, 10/1 Bridge Pal, Khuzdar, Swynford Pleasure, 12/1 Cosmic Case, Donna's Double, 14/1 Easibet Dot Net, Protection Money, 20/1 Beady, 25/1 Devine Light, 33/1 Ro Eridani, Thesaurus.

Selection - Donna's Double + Border Terrier

You wont think so reading the DRV but I have spent a lot of time on this race, I have played all the relevant video's and I keep coming back to 3 horses. The first of the 3 was easiest to reject and that was Swynford Pleasure. This race is so tightly knit and the numbers offer no help at all in trying to separate any of the runners. It really is hard and I know that's my best Cliché but if I could see an edge I would tell you. The two horses that just stand out to me are DONNA'S DOUBLE at 12/1 and BORDER TERRIER at 7/1. There may be a raised eyebrow or 2 when I mention DONNA'S DOUBLE and I have backed him a couple of times lately at big prices and he has failed to deliver, and I have also opposed him successfully at Pontefract. Now I can point to so many "negatives" and question marks about his chance. Will he stay the trip? What kind of form is he in? The stable are struggling. He looks to be easily held by Compton Drake (He is my 4th best today). He is getting on in age. I could go on, but I think this horse is not regressive and is capable of eating these for breakfast if within some way of his best. I backed him at Redcar last time over 10f and he came a well beaten 5th after been given too much to do and my gut feeling that day was that he is not getting on a bit and he needs a step up in trip, and he gets that today despite being untested at 12 furlongs. He may not stay but I think he will, and this is a track he may well need 12f on (He has won here before) with its tight bends and even if he does have stamina problems this is the place to overcome them. I also think Redcar was "softer" than advertised last time out and that did not help the horse at all. DONNA'S DOUBLE needs a recent race. He needs this time of year and although he is best on fast ground. I am aware that he could totally flop, and that he could need a lot of luck in running, but at 12/1 (He has been 14/1 on Betfair) that is an astonishing price and even if I finally accept that the horse has got into my head and I am viewing him with Rose Tinted spectacles, 14/1 is not a price that can hurt you if you bet him. My other selection is BORDER TERRIER. I Looked at him first and did not like his form much and thought I was sure to find a better option, but as I looked at the other runners, nothing gave me the feeling that it would outclass him and he was most definitely the best impression that the Video gave me and the way he finished last time at 10f gave me the impression he could do even better at this trip. So in a very open contest, I am selecting DONNA'S DOUBLE and BORDER TERRIER in that order, as the horses I would advise you to bet.

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