2 Best Bets of the Day

Newmarket 3.35 Irony ( 10/1 Hills, Ladbrokes) 0.5 Pts Win

Newmarket 5.20 Cayman Breeze 0.5 Pts Win


2 Half Point Acount bets . Only 1 pts staked on the day and I can guarantee you that the significance of these being "Account bets" rather than just "Personal bets"
is Nil . The Days of the Bbod are numbered and there is no significance in these at all.My Personal Stakes reflect my confidence levels. Irony is simply there as a big priced
Horse I have fancied for a long time that could dissapoint or win, and Cayman Breeze is there as an "Information" bet that I believe should repair any damage done by Irony.
I could just have easily gone "no bet" and I dont see the label of "Account bets" as relevant these days. After all, I had more on Bonecrusher last night than either of these.

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Personal Bets

1) Newmarket 3.35 Irony £175 Win + £75 Place.

2) Ascot 1.45 Surprise Encounter £100

3) Haydock 3.45 Changari £150 Win.

4) Newmarket 5.20 Cayman Breeze £175 at approx 2/1


5) £75 Each Way Treble

Redcar 2.45 True (SP)
Haydock 3.45 Changari ( SP)
Newmarket 5.20 Cayman Breeze (SP)

x If the above bet goes through all the way to 5.20 ( I dont mean if they win, I mean if they place)
then I will reduce my single stakes on Cayman Breeze who is the last leg . I,m expecting TRUE
To only come second and i,ll be amazed if she wins.


Be careful with your staking today. It must be unlikely that the first 2 bets will win at 10/1 and 8/1 so it will require
the 3rd and 4th bets to win to make any money and that is about a 5/1 chance as well. My Stakes on IRONY are
deliberately overstaked so if you want less on that I would not put you off . I am more than aware that the BBOD on
Irony is staked as a win bet , and my personal bet is staked as a "part each way bet" . That is simply because I dont
allow my own bets to be held hostage by silly paper excercises .

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Yesterday's Summary

Just the one personal bet in Bonecrusher which won at Even money. Hopefully that may have
Recovered any losses from Thursdays Each Way Double which went down.
I have just seen the race this morning and He won like a certainty.

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Today's Racing

2 Information Bets

I'll start with the piece of information I said I had at the Shergar cup meeting at Ascot. This meeting should carry a government wealth warning. It is usually open wallet surgery and the only reason it is called the Shergar Cup is that nobody can say Shergar would be turning in his grave as nobody knows where that is . I am asking myself why Ladbrokes, who are always the last of the major boomakers to price races up have become the first today to have gone up with all their early prices before 9am . The answer is because they know this is a gravy train and its right up their street as they know its no different from betting numbers on a Roulette wheel . Anyway, There were 2 horses that I have been told to back today.

The First word I have had is SURPRISE ENCOUNTER in the opening race at Ascot (1.45)

The Second horse is CAYMAN BREEZE in the 5.20 at Newmarket.

x The Second horse was to have been in the 4.00pm but I have been told that This horse should be replaced with a stronger selection at Newmarket that has come in . I am well aware that both my contact and I are inviting Sods Law here as Golden Lauriat was to have been the 2nd selection in the 4pm at Ascot but my man has gone a little cold on him stating the jockey worries him and the race looks harder than he had thought . I have no idea whether Golden Lauriat is worth a bet or not but I am acutely aware what could happen here so I have got him to be crystal clear about what He thinks I Should advise on his behalf and he has told me in no uncertain terms that Surprise Encounter and CAYMAN BREEZE (Newmarket 5.20) should be the two strongest "information" bets.

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Ascot 1:45 Moss Bros Shergar Cup Mile (Class B) (Rated Stakes Handicap) (4yo+, 0-100) 1m

Betting Forecast: 100/30 Island Light, 11/2 Pentecost, 6/1 Surprise Encounter, Wannabe Around, 7/1 Green Line, 8/1 Goblet Of Fire, Muchea, 9/1 Calcutta, 10/1 Summer View, 25/1 King's Ironbridge, 100/1 Faithful Warrior, Gilded Dancer.


Selection = Surprise Encounter (information bet)

SURPRISE ENCOUNTER does look quite exposed as a 7 year old off Top-weight of 100 but I am encouraged that both past winners of this race had the same rating and weight so high weighted horses are clearly favoured. This horse has been working brilliantly at Ed Dunlop's according to a contact of mine. He was a very high class winner of the Hunt Cup in 2001 off "95" and he has since won a handicap off today's mark of 100 and a conditions race and he does retain plenty of ability. When the draw was made for this race people thought that the Rest of the World team made a mistake in not choosing ISLAND LIGHT First. That may be true but it may also be true that they were aware just how well this horse is going at home. This is absolutely not going to be easy and he may need to be close to his best to win, but I'm hearing that he is. He missed Goodwood to come here and in his final season this would be a prize they would love to win with him. I Respect every runner here, but the market rivals at the head of the betting do not scare my that much at all. ISLAND LIGHT May very well be a false favourite. Alec Stewart states "he wants soft ground and I have my mind set very much on the cambridgeshire". He goes fresh so his 48 day absence may not trouble him but he could be on the long rode to the Cambridgeshire and off a career high mark (He has won off 83 + 90 and now races off 97) another victory could rule him out of many top handicaps to come. GREEN LINE is always beatable. He pulled up last time with what looked a serious injury but it obviously was not that bad but he has to prove that he wants a Mile here. He may also lack a bit of confidence. Overall in what is a tough looking race I am happy to bet SURPRISE ENCOUNTER Despite his "Rest of the world jockey" . I,m not expecting miracles but I have had a strong word and at 8/1 on the exchanges I can not see much wrong with an £100 bet .

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Newmarket 5:20 Cathy Marr Memorial Maiden Stakes (Class D) (3yo) 6f

Betting Forecast: 13/8 Pagan Storm, 2/1 Cayman Breeze, 5/2 Tanaffus, 14/1 Richard, 20/1 Ana Winta, 33/1 Complication.

There will not be a traiber in this race that can give you much confidence about any of their runners as this Maiden race is very much a case of "Last Chance Saloon" for a few of these. They are essentially a modest bunch who have not delivered what they have promised all year and have dissapointed their connections. You would not be surprised if any of these turned victgory into defeat but I am told to be on CAYMAN BREEZE. This horse has not done what Ed Dunlop thought he would earlier in the campaign. He was working with Surprise Encounter earlier in the year and has not progressed as anticipated with a series of niggling problems. He is not a very big horse which has prevented him coping with some of his races but Ed Dunlop has apparantly got the horse right now . He has had a 69 day abscence but all his main rivals have also been unraced in several weeks and i,m Told Dunlop has got him as good as he can and that his Career will be decided after today. My Man has told me to bet this at 2/1. He feels it is a big price and despite his frustrating profile the news is that this is Judgement Day for the horse and that his trainer thinks he has got him spot on to win . Whether the horse can translate that into Victory or not i,m not sure but all the concerns about him have also been shared about his 2 market rivals and I am certainly betting him .

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The Non Information Bets


Newmarket 3:35 Silver Salver Stakes (Handicap) (Class B) (3yo+, 0-105) 7f

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Mine, 7/1 Uhoomagoo, 8/1 Certain Justice, Idle Power, Winning Venture, 9/1 Irony, Yafoul, 10/1 Master Robbie, Sea Storm, 14/1 Kareeb, 16/1 Starbeck.

Believe me when I say this horse is no certainty and far from certain to place. I can not make my mind up about whether IRONY just has one speed and is vulnerable to horses that quicken, or whether he has not dropped in the weights enough to win. I am certain that he does not like 8 furlongs, his last two races were too far for him and back at 7f on a track he likes I want to be with him. I have mentioned him to you 3 or 4 times already this year. He has never been a BBOD But I have saved on him and staked him as a personal bet before. The horse has been screwed by the handicapper since he won the Windsor Castle stakes on his 2nd start for Jamie Osborne in 2001 and has not won since because of the Draconian handicap mark. Andrew Balding trains him now and that is a massive plus for me. Balding has been saying all year that says he will win when getting his confidence back and when dropped in the weights.
He started the year on "98" and has now dropped to "84" and that makes him very well handicapped in my book. He has Twice been beaten a length off a mark of "86" over a trip he does not enjoy (8f) and now he is back to 7f I'm really keen on him. He ran on this track in the H+K Commissions handicap at Newmarket over a mile recently and he was cruising in front and looking the winner but I'm sure his stamina gave out. Then he went to Goodwood in the driving rain and softening ground and didn't get the trip that day badly hanging left inside the final furlong. He was only beaten 4 lengths that day and back on fast ground, and back at 7 furlongs I fancy him strongly at 9/1 And he is 11/1 on Betfair . I'm certain that he will be in the firing line inside the final furlong and then he will either win or get swamped by the horses that can quicken. My Money is on him winning today and I am deliberately overstaking as I think at times you have to. For me this is the time. If he is placed then I'll break level, but I am Far from certain he will be placed. This is your archetypal "win at 2 years of age so can't win till he is 4 years old "scenario. On the A.O.R this is actually harder than his last couple of races but the drop in the number of opponents will help him here and I am going to bet him stronger than I should be doing. He is a horse that I don't want to miss as when he does win, the pleasure for me will be personal and far more than an average 9/1 winner.

I Wont Pretend I can rule out many of the runners I Do feel many of them have legitimate negatives from which to increase confidence in the selection.

CERTAIN JUSTICE must be better on soft ground and has a 140 day absence to overcome and when he won this race last year he was 7lbs lower than today and it was on soft ground. I do not understand why he is a shorter price in the betting forecast.

UHOOMAGOO is respected a great deal but this is a hold up horse that may have problems getting a run here. He flopped here in the Bunbury Cup over Course and Distance, and this is a lot harder to find gaps than the open spaces of Ayr, Newcastle and Nottingham where he has been winning.

YAFOUL is a 3 year old Filly that does not look straightforward and who takes on older male horses for the first time in a short career. She is talented for sure but you have to oppose these types.

IDLE POWER Last Won at Newmarket on his last start for Peter Harris in 2002. He has downgraded stables to Jim Boyle which is a negative. He is a hard horse to win with and this year he is 0 from 8 and yet has only dropped 1lb lower than the rating he started the season on. It is no surprise that J. Boyle has not managed to win with him. It has been 43 days since Jim Boyle last had a winner, he had a favourite beaten on Thursday and a 4 from 84 record for this stable in 2002 and in 2000 a record of only 2 winners from 70 runners hardly fills you with confidence. I'm not saying he can't win but he does have to prove plenty today and for me IDLE POWER is not really a 7f horse and is best at 6 furlongs. He also could have been drawn better.

MINE has a great chance but is a short price already and with top weight I still prefer to look elsewhere. He will take a lot of beating but you can not bet them all and at a double figure price I'd be staying with IRONY who could be a bigger price to "Place" than MINE is to win the race!!!

WINNING VENTURE is a danger for me. He ran well in this race 2 years ago and Dandy Nichols has brought him on very well this year , His last run at Goodwood over a mile was eye catching as he was only just caught by a hiigh class horse that day at the 7f marker and he drops in trip today. He probably wants slower ground than this but he acts on fast ground, and is very well handicapped and if his draw does not hurt his chance he is a potential winner.

I,m not even sure the winner is even amongst those I have mentioned yet . Its a hot little race but i,m playing IRONY here and his price looks generous.

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I,m not , but If I was Playing..................

Newmarket 1.55- Mr Ed looks the value at 14/1 but he is a long way from a good thing .

Newmarket 4.45 - Alaared looks a good price at 4/7 if you can stomach betting odds on in a small tactical field.

Haydock 3.15 - When I think about the day I said Nekkar Valley was a certainty at Hamilton and I look at the crap he beat that night (hisTop rated opponent was only rated 49 ) , and I consider that he lost both his next 2 races, it seems obscene to think that he can win this 0-103 contest. Why is he 7/1 with some bookmakers ? How can he win this ? There is a very good reason why I never tell you to Lay horses at big prices and that is because it is irresponsible and arrogant for me to place so much of your money at risk on an opinion, and I dont suggest you lay this today, but laying him "place only" at about 11/4 or less
is an option, albeit a riskier option but with less damage. Let me anywhere near a Spread-match bet with him in it and i,d be opposing him strongly but I doubt that option will present itself today . Yes he had excuses last time out but this is a lot tougher and he well beaten last time. Dont bet him.

Ascot 2.50 - Menfee at 20/1 (exchanges) interests me. I think you can ignore his last run, and whilst i,d be happier if this was 6f , this is value with Kinane up.

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