Best Bet of the Day
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No Bet

Short Message today
and No Bets .

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Personal Bets


Newmarket 3.25 Commission £80 12/1
Newmarket 3.25 Grizedale £20 12/1
Doncaster 6.45 Quel Fontenailles £100 Win 7/1
Epsom 7.00 Sevillano £100 2/1 minimum


I,ll have a Big Review of things on Sunday and talk through the last couple of weeks.I'm not playing hard on the Bunbury Cup. I think it is harder than average and that too many have chances. My 2 bets will give me bit of fun for cheap money but staking them on the account is far too risky . Quel Fontenailles is the kind of bet that could have been an account bet had I been in form, (although i,d question the fact that i,m not ) but it is a horse that "Could" run badly and thats why I am in two minds about it . Personally I think it is a terrific value bet (that could dissapoint) that impressed me on Video at Ascot and who was running in far better class in France and was certainly improving fast this summer. I like this bet a lot, but then other factors like a jockey who has not ridden a winner before chip away at the bet and it is best left to just a Personal bet . The July Cup has not drawn me in. Oasis Dream would be my pick each way but the draw is a worry and the bigger priced options like Membership, Acclamation and Zinging are not without a chance . I Want to leave it at that today , have a quiet day and prepare for the weekend.
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Yesterday's Summary


TOURMALET Ran a fine race yesterday in 2nd at 5/1 . I think the horses performance justified the Quarter point bet at 8/1 and both he and the favourite were different class to the rest. The Winner put in a very serious performance and whilst we looked as if we may have caught him at one stage, Mark Prescott's horses are never easy to pass . The main action in the 4.45 was unpleasant. MUSICAL FAIR Should really have won. How it failed to get up and beat the winner I dont know. Even the Racing Post read it right saying " A slightly unsatisfactory event as Musical Fair, who was carrying a penalty for winning at Redcar on Sunday, was checked in her run at a vital stage and just failed to get up. She looked unlucky." SUMMER SPECIAL was interfered with many times but thats no excuse as he should have got out away from all that , but once it happened He did not have the strength of character to fight for his supper. A Few lessons to take from yesterday. I,m not "In form" on the account business but the luck factor is not there either as we should not have lost money on that race. The Personal bets were staked well and basically just about broke level from 3 losing horses and would have won money without a 25p rule 4 . ( I did say staking yesterday was a headache on the account and that my staking was a better idea).
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Today's Racing

Newmarket 3:25 Ladbrokes Bunbury Cup (Handicap) (Class B) (3yo+,0-105) Winner £45,500.00 7f GD-FM

Betting Forecast: 7/1 Mine, 8/1 Enchanted, Patavellian, 9/1 By Far, Court Masterpiece, 10/1 Camp Commander, 12/1 Commission, Grizedale, Tough Love, 14/1 Hurricane Floyd, 16/1 Adekshan, 20/1 Lunar Leo, Wahsheeq, 25/1 Digital, Farqad, Hilltop Warning, Loyal Tycoon, Nashaab, Onlytime Will Tell, Takes Tutu.

I have decided that the Bunbury Cup is Too "Open" and "speculative" for a bet especially during a poor betting period for the service. There is no point throwing arrows for the sake of it . I Did promise you a bet the other day . I stated that I had a "Class runner" with an ideal profile. That was Court Masterpiece , but since then I understand from a contact that Ed Dunlop would prefer to race him against his own age group and that he only races here on the owners insistence. The Other Bet I promised you was a " very shrewd "plot " horse that could not possibly win last time out " , and that horse is COMMISSION From Gerard Butlers stable. This is my Number 1 pick for the race . The other horse I liked was GRIZEDALE and I have just written quick summarys for both horses below. I will be betting Both horses , but I am not going mad. Coincidently in this 20 runner race the selections are Drawn in stalls 1 and stall 20 . I,m hoping that will suit us well, but the race is fine for a throwaway account bet in the middle of a sizzling hot run but when the bets are running well without winning its not a time for specultion.

GRIZEDALE was 2nd in this race in 2002 off "91". Ed Dunlop trained him then and wanted to withdraw him on the soft ground. The owners (who were in attendance) refused to allow him to be withdrawn and he ran and was beaten in a photo. There is a big missconception that this horse wants soft ground, he does not need soft ground. He is more than effective on fast ground. Pat Eddery got off him last year and said he would have won had the ground been fast. GRIZEDALE Then inevitably went up in the weights and ran some very solid races off his higher handicap mark before ending the season off "91" again the same mark that he had in this race last year. He was sold over the winter for £55,000 to owner Roger Kilby, (aka Canisbay Bloodstock) and sent to John Akehurst who has laid him out for this. On his debut at 20/1 in a tough handicap, he was hampered but not fancied to win anyway. He then won at Goodwood at 20/1 in May, and although that was not as good a race as this, it was a Class C Handicap and he won it with remarkable ease carrying 10 stone. Laid out for this, he has a very good chance. The 49 day abscence does not worry me as he once nearly won a Class C Handicap off "89" after a 7 months abscence going down by only half a length and only 1lbs higher than when beaten in a photo in last years race he appeals strongly to me from the age group (4) that wins this race just as much as they dont.

COMMISSION is a very interesting horse from Gerard Butlers. He is a 3 year old ( impressive record from limited runners). He is beautifully bred and cost £200,000 as a yearling and had all the fancy entries.Having won his maiden from 2 starts as a juvenile he apparantly "wintered well" and Gerard Butler was considering the French Guineas and other options. That was obviously far too ambitious. He started off at Sandown but he needed his first race before racing at Bath in a very hot Conditions race. COMMISSION Looked to win that day but just looked to struggle getting the 10 furlong trip. He would have won at a mile, and his opponents that day were serious. It was all "level weights" and the Winner ( High Accolade) came out and won a Listed race and the King Edward 7th stakes at Ascot. The Runner up ( Heisse) started favourite for the Italian Derby despite flopping and The 4th ( Salsalino) was beaten a short head in the King George V handicap at Ascot off "95" next time out . That was a warm race. COMMISSION Then went to Handicap company , and raced in Camberleys race. He was well backed in the morning that day , despite a very poor record in that race for 3 year olds against older horses, but I watched him carefully that day and he was going very well for me, staying on very dangerously before he was sandwiched and unseated his rider . That was a run of immense promise on ground he did not want. For me he is a lot better than his handicap mark and is coming right now and given luck in running we could see a devestating turn of foot to win this .
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