Will the Saturday Curse Continue?

Low staking day mainly concentrated on the 2.50
at Ascot. Failure there and I will need Help from
a horse that has let me down badly before. Help
is as hand though and hopefully we can win today.

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Yesterday's Summary

JEEPSTAR ran 5th and very well beaten under 2 lengths but it was not exactly what I wanted. I think he had a lot of pressure around him with many pressing horses and in the end something had to pass him for saying there were 3 or 4 in the horses slipstream. I think the message "Read" like Stretton was "next best" but I did not really think of him as that, it had no more of a chance than several others. The Stats worked out well and I'm glad I got a few of the negatives right but It was just short of what we wanted and a loser. You only have to be right once every 7 or 8 times to win at that price though.


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Today's Racing

Let's hope the Saturday Slumps over.
Very much Into the Lions Den.
I watched Gladiator last night in preparation for
today and it did not help. Slight change of
style today. Thinking aloud most of the message.
The Waffle is still there but the whole piece ends
with the Personal bets which will be a test of how
much I have tried to change my poor weekend
form around.




I'll start by running few a few Stats


Ascot 1:45 ladbrokes.com Handicap (Class B) (3yo+, 0-110) 5f GD-FM

Betting Forecast: 4/1 Baltic King, 7/1 Viewforth, 8/1 Salviati, Smart Hostess, 10/1 My American Beauty, Pivotal Point, 12/1 Strathclyde, 14/1 Ikan, 16/1 Halmahera, Speed Cop, 20/1 Connect, Malapropism, Peruvian Chief, Texas Gold, 25/1 Budelli, Fromsong, Sierra Vista, Vita Spericolata, 33/1 Obe One, Roxanne Mill.

1) There has not been a 4 year old winner in over a Decade
2) The Last 12 winners of this race carried 8st 7lbs or HIGHER
3) In the last 12 years 10 winners were returned at a single-figure starting price.
x I would strongly advise that you follow Stats 1+2 and go with the top 12 of the 20 runners

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Ascot 2:20 Willmott Dixon Cornwallis Stakes (Class A) (Group 3) (2yo) 5f

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Majestic Missile, 7/2 Cartography, Tahreeb, 4/1 Needles And Pins, 8/1 Vermilliann, 10/1 Nights Cross, 33/1 Fast Heart, Foursquare, Harry Up, 50/1 Benbaun, 66/1 Eastern Pearl.

1) There are very few Stats of note here. In recent years the winners were lightly raced horses who have won the last 4 renewals of this race. Prior to that the winners were all Experienced Group horses who had ran at least 6 times that year
2) My "Newmarket" man has only told me one thing today. He has told me that Willie Haggis fancies CHORIST (Runs in the 2.50) far more than he fancies MAJESTIC MISSILE. That's not to say that Majestic Missile can't win


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Ascot 2:50 Princess Royal Willmott Dixon Stakes (Class A) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (3yo+) 1m4f GD-FM

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Summitville, 4/1 Itnab, 9/2 Chorist, 5/1 Singleton, 13/2 Tanaghum, 12/1 Golly Gosh, 16/1 Manama Rose, 25/1 Sindy, 66/1 Desert Island Disc.

1) Three-year-olds lead the older fillies by 21 wins to 4 since 1974
2) Three-year olds have taken 8 of the last 10 runnings
3) 9 of the last 10 winners were rated within 8lbs of the Top Rated Horse
4) The last 10 winners were all gaining their first Group success of the season
5) Last years race was won by the favourite (8/11 + 5 runners) for the first time since 1992
x I am not sure about the Age Stats as there have been few older horses running in the race

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Now they are giving me Help!

News has spread like wildfire of my Saturday Blues and my dreadful record. Much Help has been given me from many different sources. My "Newmarket" man tells me that CHORIST (Ascot 2.50) has been working very well and that it is his best bet of the day. I know that he has no idea about the dreadful record of 4 year olds in the race though, and having seen this initially priced up at 9/2 in the Racing Post, and then changed to an 11/4 chance in their 2nd Copy, and then to find that the horse was trading at as low as 5/2 last night I just feel that I have lost a lot of value in the selection, and feel that I need to fix the problem myself.

Help has been sought, and has come in from other areas as well. One of the shrewder "dual code" Members when reading my Saturday Slums has mailed me telling me to bet HIRYANA in the 3.10 at Hexham at 3/1and tells me the Racing Post forecasters have got the race badly wrong and that this might end my slump ! Not my game of course but I hops it wins for him and as they often say I'll let "You Decide". I must admit is comforting when you get external help from within the service! I don't know whether it would improve or destroy my reputation!

The Help did not stop there. Some Close Local Friends who do nothing but advise me about Derby County (The Jury is still out with the relegation bet) have told me that today is a game where I have to take a particular strong view and oppose them. I am a bit concerned that they are both 9/4 and at home. I don't think there is much value in Laying "Home" teams at 9/4, but the team have apparently got a Striker Crisis and have unsuccessfully failed to sign a striker on loan for the game after their main striker was injured. There will be a 17 year old up front today for Derby alongside other teenagers in the side and against WIGAN, a side with the 2nd best defensive record in the Division and the joint 4th placed team in the league my men tell me they will be amazed if Derby win and they are confident that they will not score today.

The last piece of Help comes from MR STEEL who has not lost any day this week and carries on in relentless fashion Carpet Bombing short priced horses. He tells me he can't help me on the flat but At Bangor in the 4.05 he fancies CUMBRIAN KNIGHT and at Southwell in the 5.20 he is also betting GENERAL CLAIREMONT. I shudder to think what he might have on these later, but they are not for me or the service as they are Odds on.

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ASCOT

Could well be "over watered" today.


Back to my own analysis Laden with the burdens of History on this Pre Sabbath day. There is nothing really that stands out and I would be no less or more confident if it was a Monday. These cards are not really playing to my strength, I'm longing for a 0-56 Handicap at Redcar full of mules. That said I'll go through a couple of races and in the interests of accuracy I'll only mention something that has particularly got me thinking or caught my eye.

ELSHADI (Ascot 1.15) is easily fanciable and I think it's particularly significant that Marcus Treggoning won with him in the same race that he introduced Nayef in a couple of years ago. This is a short price though and a small field and he is easily passed up. FANTASTIC VIEW has a chance and this horse might well Nail Elshadi You have to take on Dettori on the favourite with P.Dobbs and Elshadi is far sexier so I would want some difference in their prices before I backed Fantastic View and I'm not enamoured by the fact he is a small horse.

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Ascot 1.45

Betting Forecast: 4/1 Baltic King, 7/1 Viewforth, 8/1 Salviati, Smart Hostess, 10/1 My American Beauty, Pivotal Point, 12/1 Strathclyde, 14/1 Ikan, 16/1 Halmahera, Speed Cop, 20/1 Connect, Malapropism, Peruvian Chief, Texas Gold, 25/1 Budelli, Fromsong, Sierra Vista, Vita Spericolata, 33/1 Obe One, Roxanne Mill.

I'm not sure how well the Stats will help today but I would think that in the Ladbrokes Sprint (Ascot 1.45) it is very important to stay with the high weighted horses. For anyone that has no Racing Paper or can not be bothered to look I'll just illustrate the following horses that should not be included in any bets based on these stats. The "Negative" horses that I would suggest you eliminate from consideration are Viewforth 7/1, Smart Hostess 8/1, My American Beauty 10/1, Strathclyde 14/1Malaproprism 20/1, Sierra Vista 25/1, Obe One 33/1, and Roxanne Mill 33/1. I Know Thats not a great help but if they are right then the 4/1 about BALTIC KING does look rather large in a race where Class "tells".

The big game plan has to be the Pricewise horse BALTIC KING at 9/2 with William Hill this morning and then to Lay him back at a shorter price once the lemmings have decided that this is the horse they want to bet anyway. A 3 Year old off "106" conceding weight to the whole field may send a few spines with the odd shiver, but statistically I'd be quite confident that I have ruled out the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourite as they are lightly weighted horses. In a 20 runner sprint, that I hope the stats have converted to a 12 runner sprint, I still see that as the most professional thing to do even if the margin of profit will be small.


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Ascot 2.20 Willmott Dixon Cornwallis Stakes

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Majestic Missile, 7/2 Cartography, Tahreeb, 4/1 Needles And Pins, 8/1 Vermilliann, 10/1 Nights Cross, 33/1 Fast Heart, Foursquare, Harry Up, 50/1 Benbaun, 66/1 Eastern Pearl.

I would honestly not bet MAJESTIC MISSILE the 3/1 Fav. I have been told that Chorist (Ascot 2.50) is by far the stable "buzzer" today from Willie Haggis's stable (and I an not keen on that ) and they are just "Hopeful" about Majestic Missile. Of Course statements like that come back to haunt you, but I have been left in no uncertain terms that its true and I trust my man to have that from the right place. In a Group 3 race you want more than stable confidence like that and I would be inclined to oppose him. TAHREEB looks to need further to me on breeding and running style. That naturally pushes you towards CARTOGRAPHY From Michael Jarvis's stable which is owned by Sheikh Mohammed. I know Clock watchers were delirious at Beverley and people are talking about next years Guineas. I would not say he was a "certainty" but his priced looks a lot better if you trust the negative information about Majestic Missile and I will probably play a match bet between the two of them on the spreads and side with CATOGRAPHY in what should be a level match but this is not a 2 horse race my any means.

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Ascot 2.50 Princess Royal Willmott Dixon Stakes

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Summitville, 11/4 Chorist, 9/2 Itnab, 5/1 Tanaghum, 6/1 Singleton, 12/1 Golly Gosh, 16/1 Manama Rose, 25/1 Sindy, 66/1 Desert Island Disc.

My Newmarket man fancies CHORIST. As I said earlier in the message I was not enamoured by the price or by the record of older horses in this race much as she is working superbly by all accounts. She is also far from a certain stayer. She didn't look to stay in the Yorkshire Oaks and although Haggis and Fallon think she will stay there surely has to be a serious doubt. She also has a 3lbs Group Race Penalty which has got to hurt her chance. No Horse since 1989 has managed to defy that. GOLLY GOSH is passed over as well as an older horse. SINGLETON is very weak on Betfair and that's because she looks every inch at 2 mile filly and this surely has to be the wrong trip as well. ITNAB is another horse with Stamina question marks. She has a Miler for a sire in Green Desert and an Oaks winner Midway Lady for a Dam and whether she gets this trip or not is open to serious question when you consider that this is a horse that also moves up in class, has not raced in 77 days, and whom Ben Hanbury said as recently ago as late September, that they had been "waiting for the rain since she won staying on over ten furlongs in softish ground at Ascot in July. She will not run if the rain doesn't come". That said, Hanbury has had a recent winner, his runner ran well yesterday and the track has been watered well and many observers felt ITNAB looked a horse that would stay this far when we last saw her winning at Ascot in July and She is one of the 2 horses I like in this race.

SUMMITVILLE Has a chance but her "Prep" race was a thrashing in the St Leger and I can not see any particular reason why we should expect a great race from her today. I respect her on her Oaks run but it's almost closer to next years Oaks than this years. ITNAB was one of my "2 against the field) and my other fancy is TANAGHUM who is one of the few specialist 12F horses in the race and whom ran a great race in a listed race 2 weeks ago over this trip where she easily holds MANAMA ROSE. This is a step up in class for TANAGHUM but she is well regarded at home, beautifully bred , ( by the most desirable broodmare sire of the last decade) and Could well be the most sensible bet as she is a certain stayer unlike Chorist and does not need a longer trip like Singleton. She's also in form, unlike Summitville and at 5/1 I rate her value. If the rains come you can bet here with even more confidence and having watered at Ascot she should be fine on the ground and in a race that has proved to be a very bad race for favourites over the years.

MANAMA ROSE has been the subject of good support at 16/1 and 14/1 and that may be significant but as she is held on form she is passed over.

Given a £100 Free Bet in the race I would split it £50 on ITNAB and TANAGHUM at 5/1 each runner. That's a bet at 2/1 that "either" win and that's Value.

I also see TANAGHUM is Evens "place only" and ITNAB is 1.90 "place only". I'd be inclined to bet them both "place only" at 1.8 or better. You only need one of them placed to do virtually no money and that has to be a very likely scenario and both can easily get placed as well.
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In the Listed race at 3.25, I am not convinced by the profile of favourite CHIC, and neither by his price of 15/8 especially as he is trying to win a listed race, and he has 3 times failed that in succession at 3/1, 11/10 and 8/1 this summer. The race looks best left to a well fancied, well backed each way option , perhaps like ABUNDANT (Backed from 5/1-7/2) or DAME DE NOCHE . I can't see much later in the card. I certainly could not bet Oriental Warrior in the 4.00pm and the last is basically impossible and I do not think you can even rule out the 25/1 outsider Gallery God.


Over at York, there are even fewer opportunities.

In the Rockingham (1.40) I would bet "place only" on PHILHARMONIC at Evens or better. I've just watched his Ripon win and he was very impressive
In beating a 91 rated horse very easily and he had plenty in the tank. The unfashionable stable will help the price but it would not be a big bet. We then have a couple of obscene races that should help bookmakers take the lead on the day.



Then, Lo and behold, I run into an old memory. FLYING EXPRESS (York 4.40).

Betting Forecast: 100/30 Arzoo, 7/2 Arctic Desert, Flying Express, Gallivant, 8/1 Inter Vision, 12/1 Circuit Dancer, Naahy.

One of the season's disappointments for me in the William Hill Trophy. That probably hurt more than it should considering the depth of talent in the race, but if you remember he ran again last week at Newmarket at 14/1 when I made a special point of mentioning him. I was not sure what to make of him last time. It was a slightly easier race than this will be. He never looked fancied in the market and whilst I can't pretend he did not look anything but average on Video, there may have been genuine reasons as he was taking on older, classy sprinters without having had a race in several weeks. He was also eased considerably after running on a bit and there is every chance that Newmarket last week was just used as a race to get him fit for Today. Although he does slightly rise in Class, he also drops to his own age group today and that may be the key to him.

I have not given up on him. This is the first race he has had this year Fitness Guaranteed and this may be his time of year. I should perhaps take a cold shower as this horse gets me excited and as I look on Betfair and see his 9/2 price I have to admit I would like to see heavy support for the horse.
I will have a small bet but if they come for him, and they come in their droves then I will be having a substantial bet on him. That last statement to be honest is actually probably a common error. Barry Hills has, time and time again this year won easily with horses that drifted badly in the market and he is not a stable that you need to see market support for. as he keeps his mouth shut and as Mark Winstanley was hinting in this weeks "Weekender", its easier to
get a Mole in Al-Qaeda to track down Bin Laden than it is to get anything out of Barry Hills stable. I do not think I need to see a market move. I will be betting him and the more he drifts out the more I'll have on.

Surely, after my Saturday record was exposed, and after "Help" came from many quarters within and outside the service giving me advice for today, surely the irony that I could refuse all that advice and turn to Flying Express as my Saviour is rather perverse. He is growing on me though by the minute.
Nothing much else appeals in the remaining races at Roast pork although the last words of a loved one a few years ago, made me make a deathbed promise that I would never bet a Jonjo O Neill horse at a short price and that means I wont be betting SPECTROSCOPE (4.25) and that advice has saved me a lot of money over the years.



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Personal Bets

York 4.00 Flying Express 5/1 £50 + another £20 for every point it drifts

Ascot 2.20 Match Bet Sell Majestic Missile v Cartography 0.5 lengths yr choice. £20 a length.

Ascot 2.50 Tanaghum + Itnab £70 on Both Horses at 9/2 +

Ascot 2.50 Tanaghum + Itnab "place only". Bet both horses at 1.8 + to be placed. £50 Each


Football.

"Mentions" for Wigan to beat Derby.

£290 Staked (Not including Spread Bet or the Football)

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MR STEEL'S Business

These are the Current bets from Mr Steel as I type. I warn you seriously, that these are likely to increase or decrease significantly as he bets more on them or hedges them during the afternoon and they are no more than an accurate guide at this stage and if you decide to follow any of them they are at your own risk. I will give you the final summary tonight.

11:05 UK / Bang 11th Oct : 14:55 TO BE PLACED Fairwood Present 1.42 1.42 Odds £175.00 Back
14:55 2m4f Nov Hrd Lambhill Stakes 18.50 18.45 Odds £29.00 Lay
Formula 1 / Japanese GP : Winner M. Schumacher 8.20 8.20 Odds £50.00 Lay
Formula 1 / Japanese GP : Winner M. Schumacher 9.40 9.40 Odds £88.00 Lay
Formula 1 / Japanese GP : Winner M. Schumacher 9.20 9.18 Odds £383.00 Lay
14:20 5f Grp3 Vermilliann 18.00 18.00 Odds £40.00 Lay
10:16 UK / Bang 11th Oct : 15:30 2m4f Nov Chs .Pharpost 1.65 1.65 Odds £88.00 Lay
10:15 UK / Bang 11th Oct : 14:25 3m Hcap Chs Waterberg 7.00 7.00 Odds £28.00 Lay
10:15 UK / Ascot 11th Oct : 13:45 5f Hcap Ikan 21.00 21.00 Odds £10.00 Lay
10:14 UK / Ascot 11th Oct : 13:45 5f Hcap Ikan 26.00 25.55 Odds £93.00 Lay
10:13 UK / Ascot 11th Oct : 15:25 7f Listed Chatifa 8.80 8.80 Odds £43.00 Lay
10:01 UK / Ascot 11th Oct : 15:25 7f Listed Chatifa 8.00 8.00 Odds £53.00 Lay
09:54 UK / Sthl 11th Oct : 15:05 3m2f Hcap Chs Lost In Normandy 5.00 5.00 Odds £156.00 Lay
09:54 UK / Sthl 11th Oct : 15:05 3m2f Hcap Chs Lost In Normandy 4.90 4.90 Odds £84.00 Lay
09:44 UK / Sthl 11th Oct : 15:05 3m2f Hcap Chs Southerndown 2.70 2.70 Odds £57.00 Back
09:37 UK / Sthl 11th Oct : 14:30 2m1f Beg Chs Astral Prince 15.00 15.00 Odds £35.00 Lay
09:35 UK / Bang 11th Oct : 13:55 2m1f Hcap Hrd Greenacres Boy 500.00 500.00 Odds £13.00 Lay
09:29 UK / Ascot 11th Oct : 14:50 1m4f Grp3 Chorist 4.00 4.00 Odds £28.00 Lay
09:28 UK / Ascot 11th Oct : 14:50 1m4f Grp3 Chorist 4.10 4.10 Odds £172.00 Lay
07:49 UK / Bang 11th Oct : 16:05 2m1f Nov Hrd Cumbrian Knight 1.60 1.60 Odds £100.00 Back
07:29 UK / Bang 11th Oct : 16:05 2m1f Nov Hrd Cumbrian Knight 1.60 1.60 Odds £138.00 Back
07:29 UK / Bang 11th Oct : 16:05 2m1f Nov Hrd Cumbrian Knight 1.59 1.59 Odds £62.00 Back
22:30 UK / Bang 11th Oct : 16:05 2m1f Nov Hrd Cumbrian Knight 1.63 1.63 Odds £40.00 Back
10 22:26 UK / Bang 11th Oct : 16:05 2m1f Nov Hrd Cumbrian Knight 1.59 1.59 Odds £260.00 Back
10 22:02 UK / Sthl 11th Oct : 17:20 3m2f Nov Hrd General Claremont 1.46 1.46 Odds £10.00 Back
10 22:02 UK / Sthl 11th Oct : 17:20 3m2f Nov Hrd General Claremont 1.40 1.40 Odds £141.00 Back