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No Bet Today and the Last Day of Winter Misery as the next message will be on the Flat.
Today's Message simply looks at a few Lingfield races and contains the Annual State of
The Union speech before the Flat Season Starts.
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Today's racing @ Lingfield


The early races are for the Guessers and the later races are for the Pin stickers. I'm swerving the Silly handicaps here for obvious reasons and it's a light staking day for me.


Lingfield 1.30

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Dutch Gold, 2/1 Musical Gift, 4/1 Miss Grace, 9/2 Iwo Jima, 16/1 Cantrip, 20/1 Bowsprit, 25/1 Mcqueen, 33/1 Disko Bay, 50/1 Danehill Lad, 66/1 Corisa, 200/1 Carry the Fire

This looks a 4 runner race between the First 4 in the betting. Obvious questions prevent being sure. Is DUTCH GOLD fit and has he trained on? Will MUSICAL GIFT recover from a Fibresand flop and if he does will he still beat MISS GRACE Who hasn't ran since she was behind him in early February. Can Littmoden conjure enough improvement out of IWO JIMA to threaten DUTCH GOLD the class horse of the race? It's simply far too open and not sortable without me guessing. The Market may help the Guesswork but in these maiden races you usually have some idea on Betfair if there is "One particular" stand out horse that's fancied above the rest and you have not got that here. EVERY Horse was available at bigger than their Racing Post price this morning and that's unusual .It was also a light betting heat and the Vibes are clearly saying that nobody is confident that they have got the right horse here and it looks more open than many races here in Maiden Class. I've no intention of playing, but If I did I'd be looking to Burgle a bit of place only value possibly on IWO JIMA at about 6/4, a price I doubt I will get.
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Lingfield 2.00

Betting Forecast: 11/8 Western Roots, 4/1 No Bitz, Three Welshmen, 10/1 Sir Ernest, 16/1 Baytown Shamrock, Kukini, 20/1 Aggi Mac, Kuringai, 25/1 Absolutely Fab, Knickyknackienoo.

All unraced juveniles. None have any racing experience at all. The race seems to have been priced up on Stable reputation which is pretty understandable. Some smaller stables here as well which makes it quite hard to find anything out about them. Stableform leads you to the favourite, and the Champion jockey but you still don't know if its fit, fancied or has any ability. Any could win this. What may be a factor is AGE and Foaling Dates. Maturity has to be a huge issue here, and 3 horses are far older than the others. (All are juveniles but their birth dates are different. Here is a List of all runners, their exact age, and their price.


Sir Earnest 26 Months Old @ 10/1
Absolutely Fab 26 Months Old@ 25/1
Kuringai 26 Months Old@ 25/1
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Western Roots 24 Months Old @11/8
Aggi Mac 24 Months Old @20/1
Baytown Shamrock 24 Months Old @16/1
Knickyknackienoo 23 Months Old@25/1
Kukini 23 Months Old @16/1
No Bitz 23 Months Old@4/1
Three Welshman 23 months old@4/1

The 2 youngest horses are both the 2nd and 3rd Favourites NO BITZ and THREE WELSHMAN (Both 4/1) and they would be my two to avoid here and bearing in mind that THREE WELSHMAN Cost little as a yearling I'd be firmly against him. I would also be keen to ignore one of the oldest horses, ABSOLUTELY FAB as her Sire has very Poor stats with Juvenile runners. Is it a Guess? Is Salman Rushie Ex-Directory? Of course it is, but it's just an experiment and not something to stake the family silver on.

I am automatically suspicious of favourite WESTERN ROOTS when the big stable/big jockey combinations are drifting badly on Betfair and the market vibes suggest He is nothing special. Conspiracists will also point to the thread on Betfairs Chat forum suggesting the horse is a machine and must be backed. The author of that Post has absolutely no incentive to share that information if it was true and the market suggests he hasn't taken his own advice and "put away job" springs to mind. Beware the Men bearing False Gifts and Promises.

SIR EARNEST would be the most interesting runner at 10/1 but you can see why I say that, and no matter how clever you try and get, you still won't know if any of them are useless before the race. I mean you can look at it a separate way and say that the only stables here that have had a recent winner in the last few months are THREE WELSHMAN's and the Favourite WESTERN ROOT's . That surely has to count for something. AGGI MAC Cost only £1600 which is a negative sign .If you want a bet then 10/1 about SIR EARNEST appeals a lot and he was at least a £27,000 purchase , but that's a Guess. Albeit I think an intelligent guess, and I have to ask myself why some people have taken 5/1 and 6/1 on Betfair albeit to small stakes. IS someone trying to mop up this horse on the quiet? I think so and he's probably a fancied runner. IF He was 10/1 or 8/1 I'll have £50 on him but he won't be, I won't and I'll end up just watching him win unbacked.
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Lingfield 2.35

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Peruvian Chief, 3/1 Whitbarrow, 6/1 Kier Park, 8/1 Watching, 10/1 Mitcham, 12/1 Dragon Flyer, Prince Of Blues, 16/1 Roses Of Spring, Simianna, 33/1 Justalord.


The issues are simple but the conclusion isn't. Clearly the Sand adapted PERUVIAN CHIEF is hoping to beat the Classier Flat runners like WHITBURROW and KIER PARK Who have to concede track experience to Littmodens runner. Sure to be over in a flash and it could simply come down to tactics, the best ride, how fast they go early and what positions they get in the race . That's such a problem here. I would feel that KIER PARK and WATCHING could just find this surface on the fast side and may be best opposed. KIER PARK May be on the downgrade anyway and hasn't won in 3 years and his trainer seems Luke warm in the Racing post suggesting that he "looks burly and I'm not sure he is spot on" . WHITBARROW Goes well fresh and looks the main danger to PERUVIAN CHIEF and could have the Class to beat him. Certainly on his 1st start last year he beat his rivals easily and they were rated as good as Peruvian Chief on the official ratings and he destroyed them easily giving them weight. He's probably the best shout. I've had 400 with Hills at 7/2 on Whitbarrow after a separate tip for the horse.

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Lingfield 3.10

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Adiemus, Kirovski, 5/1 Parasol, 12/1 Norton, 14/1 Bourgainville, Sharmy, 16/1 Compton Bolter, I Cried For You, 20/1 Goblet Of Fire, Pawn Broker, Shami, 33/1 Linning Wine, 66/1 Pessoa, 100/1 Apollo Victoria.

The Winter Derby. Firstly ADIEMUS. I believe he needs to be opposed today because of his draw (14 of 14). That's a lot to ask of Sean Kelly. I Know he has not been 100% yet this year and will be today, and I felt he had a horrible task at the weights last time behind PARASOL (And a dreadful draw as well), but the Draw is hard to swallow, as is his price, and I fancy taking him on. I feel the same about KIVROSKI as well on a point of value. The Peter Harris stable have been very quiet recently and whilst I am sure the horse will be 100% , and always runs well fresh, his position in the market is mainly from his defeat of ADIEMUS earlier in the year . I Think hindsight now tells us that ADIEMUS was only 80% Fit that day and I think he is a better horse.

My Strategy in this race is simple. I Am Laying Both ADIEMUS and KIVROSKI at about 3/1 and 100/30. I'm going to take £250 out of both horses which means I gain £ 500 if I get them beat with a payout of £500 if I am wrong. It will probably be a little more than £500. That's basically saying I'm betting "THE FIELD" (Every horse except Adiemus and Kirovski) at Even Money .I Think I have enough to bat with against these two to make Evens a value bet.

I Agree with Jeremy Noseda who said this morning about ADIEMUS that "The race is a 10 to 12lb better event than it was last year. It will take a 10 to 12lb better performance to win on Saturday than it required last year.The standard of racing at Lingfield has risen across the board by that sort of level. It's just such a good surface there and the quality of the racing on it is getting better and better."

NORTON is a bad bet in my opinion. This horse won the race on the wrong side in the Lincoln last year when beaten only 5 lengths by the favoured far side. This may well be a Lincoln "Prep" race as well. In the Lincoln he would pick up a 5lbs penalty for winning this and that's the last thing this horse needs as he is on 9stone anyway at Doncaster. I just feel he will need this race and his Draw (stall 1) is also a nightmare for him. Is he really a horse capable of winning an all weather Derby having never raced on sand before? Of course he isn't.
His absence of 6 months won't help either. He's no sign of going well fresh and connections must have wondered what a prep race may have done in the Lincoln last year for his chance. This horse can't win for me.

BOURGAINVILLE is from my favourite Stable, Andrew Balding. You have no idea of the Depths I'd stoop to get the real inside story in this yard. I think I'd even consider Sleeping with Clare just to get in "the know "here. Balding for me is the best young trainer I've ever seen and now his Dad has handed him the licence and stopped interfering , the Classy Andrew has taken over in style with no bad habits or
Demons and I can smell his hunger. I Rate him very highly. It must though be a very hard task for BOURGAINVILLE to win this race on his sand debut but he is certainly good enough to win listed races at 10 furlongs.

COMPTON BOLTER is 33/1 on Betfair and GOBLET OF FIRE is 40/1 so it's possibly safe to exclude these as well And I CRIED FOR YOU is also "too huge a price" not to be wary, and does not look the horse he was. You would have to be a MUG to lay SHARMY at 16/1, SHAMI at 16/1 or PAWN BROKER at 28/1. All 3 have small chances but are not entitled to be so big. I don't think any of the 3 will win and they are not for me but at those prices I want them on my side.

PARASOL has to be the selection .Huge speed figure last time when Beating ADIEMUS and didn't get the credit for what was perceived to be a "Tactical" ride. Don't forget he ran in Rock of Gibraltar's Guineas less than a year ago. His form is more than up to scratch and despite concerns about how tactically aware Frankie Dettori may be today; I have to have this horse against mainly improving handicappers like KIVROSKI and ADIEMUS. The 5/1 looks a Big Price to me and I'd give him the benefit of the doubt .I'll stay with my Lays though as my play.

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Lingfield 4.40

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Gazing, 7/2 Woodland Spirit, 4/1 Arthur Pendragon, Radiant Bride, 12/1 Estimation, Premier Cheval, Salieri, 16/1 Lady In Command, 25/1 Polish Legend, 66/1 Bee J Gee.


Intuition, luck and guesswork are needed but common sense can help as well and it may not be as hard as it seems. I can't have PREMIER CHEVAL at all. Scrub him conceding all that weight but don't lay him as a violent trip drop could mean I have missed something. Mick Channon trains GAZING for Sheikh Mohammed and will be keen to win early with her. I have a Hunch that she is no good, and the reason is simple. If Channon can get her to win, She will be very valuable as a winner at stud, and if you were Channon, and you knew you wanted more horses from the worlds biggest owner, and you were very keen to get a win out of her to impress and help the sheikh and further your training career, you would be very keen to win. If you knew she was below average you would know that as a filly she'd struggle to win a maiden as a filly against colts when the season gets going so he finds a poor race early on sand just to get that win early before the speedier types beat her up on Grass. I wouldn't be afraid to oppose her. RADIANT BRIDE is hard to assess following a very slowly run race last time behind PRETENCE which clearly flattered her. She flashed her tail last time which isn't a great sign and she may need a trip and I'm against her especially from a quiet stable. ARTHUR PENDRAGON Looks seriously one paced and has massive holes in his form. I don't like the fact he's already been gelded either. Plenty will like the handicap form of WOODLAND SPIRIT But he looks nothing special at all to me and the weight concession of 18lbs to the 3 year old colt, and 23lbs to the 3 year old fillies makes this "65" rated horse unattractive to me and I'm not falling for him. I suggest you watch the market very carefully with a view to betting Robert Cowell's ESTIMATION at a fancy price. She ran once as a juvenile but Robert Cowell was talking her up as a nice scopey sort last year and was saying she easily had the ability to win a maiden. She was entered up over 7f a couple of weeks ago but pulled out and this mile will suit her a lot better. She's the right age group as well and I think she can surprise them here. My Confidence would increase greatly with market support.
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Flat Season 2003

It is normally about now that I give the "State of the Union" speech just before the Flat Season that Maps out just where the service is headed and why. Previous "States of the Union " have been long winded and boring no doubt, so I'll keep this Crisp and Brief. The 2002 State of the Union focussed mainly on the intention to seek big priced horses and that proved to be very successful and I'm hoping Today's Speech can point us further in the right direction in the Upcoming Flat Season .I know it sounds a bit Americanised but its an accurate reflection of what happens over there when the next Term or Manifesto is Given for what will hopefully be a successful year.
May I first take a Liberty and mention Yacubu Ayegbeni of Portsmouth whom I advised betting to score the First and Last Goals recently in every game. Since that advice he has played in 4 more games and Twice scored the 1st Goal at 5/1 and 7/1 and he remains a player to follow in every game whilst his price is so high and before he shortens as I know he will.

Firstly the Flat Season starts in 5 days and never have I looked forward so much to a season. I have the new office designed and built to save me time, Videos at close hand as are every necessary tool required to make sure we miss nothing this year. I May even give you a picture in the next magazine. People keep asking me about Retirement, and many suggest that everything I have done in the last month with the Magazine, service changes etc suggests that I have reversed my decision , but all I know is that I wont consider another Full Time Sand season as that game has "Gone " and its destroying my inspiration. Years ago they said 2% of punters won. That's probably now nearer 10% with the abolition of tax, the exchanges and the internet and the type of information available to Punters. However, if punters understood that you should only bet through the year in about 7 or 8 of the 12 months you could increase that 10% of winners to a lot more and winning Punters would win more. Every month in the last few years, and all the many changes in this service through the seasons have been designed to win more when the time is right, and lose less when the time is wrong. There are clearly times when Punters cant lose and times when they cant win on the whole and disciplining yourself to only betting in these times is the Last and Final leap required to make your betting more than just pleasure , but highly profitable. The time in October + November should be free time without heavy betting and the same applies to February. This may be the way I go in the future. I am beginning to resent the demands of 365 days a year betting, and charging for 365 days a year when in reality only the Riper time should be used for both and It is unlikely that we ever see a Sand Season 5 in November. We have just come from a Barren time, mainly as there has been very little Flat Racing and in 5 days time that ends and its Wall to Wall racing through to autumn. This is going to be the 1st season that I will really enjoy as the pressure is off, I know what I'm doing now and I'm finding how to do things faster and more accurately than before and I will peak this year in my opinion. I just need to mention the BBOD, s, The Lincoln, The Magazines, the Message Formats and The 0871 number.

With the BBOD,s I am more than aware that in 10 weeks of the year so far I have given you very few bets . There has been a healthy double figure profit at LSP But despite the magazine, I am very much aware that I now "owe " you strong bets and winners at decent prices and I need to do that now I have my favoured time of year . It must have been a hard time waiting for many of you much as it was needed. I recently stated that almost every day would see a "BBOD", but on the harder days (as Doncaster promises to be) there will only be a "half strength" BBOD at 0.5 Pts rather than the Full 1pts. Some of you questioned that decision wondering if I was not pandering a bit too much to the Church of the "must bet every day" members who have a strong Lobby. In truth that isn't the case. Its going to help me a lot as it takes away the "Shall I shan't I" Dilemma that I get sometimes with horses like EMERALD FIRE who won at 7/1 recently. At 0.5 pts I can confidently search for bigger priced horses that wont hurt if a couple get beaten knowing that the Stronger BBOD, s will easily cover them. I'm in no mood to pander and pacify any Lobby at the moment as the game now gets very serious for me and I know what I'm doing and we've never had a losing season yet from the last 7 . This decision protects me from indecision and that's always a big advantage. With the Really strong business I will leave you in no doubt as to why we are betting, and how hard.

With The Lincoln, early signs are that Fast Ground is looming but in this country you never know. I do expect a BBOD, I Must admit I'd rather have soft ground , and would rather have selected Golden Chalice , but the only times you will hear me moan about the Ground this year will be when its Good Ground as that stops me taking many dangers out from every race. I have watched the 2002 Lincoln and the Low Draws had a huge advantage and I think I'd rather wait for the Draw and the Ground before nailing any colours to any masts. I have been told COLISAY has been working like a Dream with SELECTIVE and that Richard Quinn has been booked and that's a fast ground horse that may yet be the selection. I omitted this from the Magazine as it was an "Alec Stewart" horse and he never has March runners, but I remember last year that his string was very well forward a lot earlier than usual, and it pays to be aware of changing stable tactics in the same way that Martin Pipe never targeted the Cheltenham Bumper until this year when he won it. Stand by for a Lincoln bet either next Friday or Saturday. I will also be looking at the spring mile and I have a 3 day advantage looking at this handicap.

With the Magazine, I knew it was Good, and I warned you it was the best thing I had done but it went down Far better than I had even imagined myself and I have to thank you all again for the tremendous feedback. Lee and I plan an Ascot Magazine and I'm pretty confident with Edition1 behind us we can better that. Long Term I am a bit worried that the content is that Good that it's impossible to maintain and that future editions may suffer, and I won't do anything that deteriorates as it's pointless. We will see but as Lee says the feedback has assured the short term future of the magazine and there is plenty more to say yet. We just wanted it to be user-friendly as we both hate reading similar types of things and they are filled with irrelevant things that are hard to read, and it seems we've gone close to the right formula .We'll see how the summer goes, but at the Moment My only thoughts now after a break is taking apart races and opening opportunities for big priced winners and BBOD, s.

With the Message formats, as with previous years after the sand season it takes a week or two to adjust to 3 meetings a day and I may keep the messages on the shorter side until I'm back in the fold. It won't take long and it's an adjustment issue that always happens.

Finally the 0871 Number. From Feedback there has only been 1 problem and the Pin Numbers seem to be working well. On that 0871 "pin numbers" line you get the BBOD, s, my personal stakes and what will be a weekly review every Sunday from next week. However if you are abroad, or on certain mobiles, or in a call box and just want the "No frills " message I have an alternative number that will work as well And that will be changed every month at the same time as I change the Pin Number for the 0871 line. That number is 08700 461906. It's basically just a short message and may suit those of you that can't be bothered to hear the Full Message. That's it Basically, I'm now in Full study and preparing to deliver next Thursday, and once again, the Motto has to be that come December 31st we will be more than Fine.

NEXT MESSAGE THURSDAY at Doncaster on Day 1 of the Flat.