There is a horse that You have to bet this evening called LA VIE EST BELLE (Warwick 7.10)
Who I consider to be one of the best bets in a long time. The annoying thing is that we will collapse
her price and return her odds on if I tip the horse . She carrys maximum confidence from me.
Truth is we will collapse her price anyway.

She is one of my strongest bets of the year but I cant protect her price . There is no point me making this
a strong bet now as I will basically collapse the price into smithereens. It will win though . There is no point
in having a 5pm Update as I will just smash the price at 5pm. I would say Not to bether on Betfair and wait
for first show but there would be sniggering in the Gallery about the chance of that happening.

I find it a pointless excercise about whether to make it an Account bet . I am in great form. You are backing
whatever I say at the moment. You have money from winnings and are ready to bet. Feedback tells me you
dont vary stakes significantly on the whole and whatever description I give for this bet wont matter.

In the Wokingham I am firmly in the Vandelin and Torosay Spring camp. Vandelin is easily good enough to be a
BBOD in its own right . Perhaps 0.5 Pts Win but Pricewise have selected it (again), there will be a huge price rush,
with Rule 4,s and all sorts of Chaos that it is not worth the aggravation .

The Lesson today is basically what I was saying in the State of the Union. We are too big and succesful for Maiden
races at Warwick night neetings anymore. I could keep it to myself and just keep quietly backing it all day, but i,m not
comfortable about doing that as you are paying me for opinions and this is my strongest. It will probably cost me a
lot of money by Hailing the horses chance so strongly but it is a price I have to pay.


All E Mail replies will be done by Sunday. Usual delays after Friday. My Apologies as ever and There will be a
Skeleton service on Sunday with a Capital "S". I need a night off and the pressure is on me tonight anyway. No Doubt
in the next 48 hours we will have a post mortem about the isues of the Warwick horse. I may even publicise all feedback
in Mondays message.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Personal Bets

1) Wokingham. I,m not sure but last night I had £100 at 20/1 on two horses. £100 on Vandelin and £100 on Torosay Spring. I have had another £100 at 16/1 on Vandelin today as well . To be honest I backed them about 6pm when I heard the Favourite wanted rain to run and before any deductions, but since then there has been money for both horse, The favourite wont run, Rule 4's look highly likely and loe and behold Pricewise has nailed Vandelins price to the wall. I,m not jumping ship now but circumstances have meant the price is messed up. Torosay Spring is now better value but statistically these two are beautifull and my number 1+2 picks.

2) Redcar 4.40 Kindlelight Debut . I Think i,ll probably look between £160 and £200 depending on her price. I,m not interested unless she is 6/4 +

3) Ascot 4.55 Peak to Creek is not one I suspect i,ll draw on later but I have had £25 at 20/1 about this winning.

4) Warwick 7.10 La Vie Est Belle will be about an £800 win bet , but I know what will happen to the price. I Wont have a penny on her at any less than Even Money and the shorter the price the less i,ll bet . At Evens she is a £500 bet. At 6/4 She is a £650 bet . At 2/1 she is an £800 bet . If You see my point. The sad thing is that some people will spoil the price. She is 9/4 in the Racing post and anyone who bets her at odds on is a Simpleton.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Yesterdays Summary

Quite how ANALOGY Won yesterday was beyond me. He drifted badly out to 2/1, played up at the start, was the subject of strange rumours all afternoon and looked beaten a long way before a very succesfull, but strange run inside the last 2 furlongs to win on the line. He absolutely looked beaten to me and to be honest I thought he was beaten half a mile out . He obvioulsy is either very green or very tempremental but now I have some wages out of him I,d think hard about following him in. Hope you backed it but bet you all took as bad a price as I did . ANNA WALHAAN Ran ok for a while but I dont think he is that genuine and he would or could not go through a gap when offered to him and he ran flat as he can do . MAN CRAZY Did reward anyone who backed him place only.I Did not bother. I short the price was too short so I had a small win bet instead. Must have been a winning day for most and thats what counts.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Today's Racing

I,m going with some strong business today. On the outskirts of nowhere, on the ringroad to somewhere, on the verge of indecision i,ll always take the roundabout way.That said todays bets are giving me the heart of lothian and I simply love what I see.

The Wokingham


The key to the race this year is to Decide that the Draw advantage forces you to play. Now the High Numbers have won this week, and most of the class horses are drawn high and many will say that a draw between 25 and 30 is best. Many will say that evidence suggests that a low draw is best.
What I have decided , is that its best to ignore all that and just go low as IF That is the right draw, then you have not got many fancied horses to beat. Had it been a High drawn advantage, and we were looking at High numbers we would be forced to choose between Hot favourite FIRE UP THE BAND, Ante Post gamble PATVELLIAN , The Promising CURFEW, Fancied ROYAL MILLENUIM and its clear that high drawn horses have a lot of strength in depth . I,m happy about going low as most of the week that is what has happened.

The Key stats appear to be simple. Just back a 4,5 or 6 year old that ran well last time, is ideally carrying over 8st 10lbs (Thats not cast iron) and who has less than 3 runs this year and who can act on fast ground. Horses need to have been "laid out" . Middle Draws have always been badly disadvantaged and anything drawn 11 to 18 will need serious tactical adjustments to win. I,m staying LOW Draws between 1 and 10.

Amongst the low draws you have BANJO BAY (Drawn 7) at 25/1 but i,m happy to look elsewhere as he could get Traffic problems and is very lightly weighted and below the weight recent trends suggest you should have. THE TATLING (Drawn 3) will go well at 14/1 but this horse always needs luck in running, has a high rating of "102" to overcome and is overraced this year. BORDER SUBJECT (Drawn 10) was runner up last year from the same stall but is 2lbs higher today and a year older. I cant have PERUVIAN CHEIF off "111" and topweight when overraced as well. LITTLE EDWARD (Drawn 8) has no form at the trip. ABBAJABBA (Drawn 6) Cant win on the ground. KATHOLOGY (Drawn 2) is over raced and too low in the weights .TOROSAY SPRING (Drawn 5) is a serious danger to my selection which is VANDELIN From Andrew Baldings stable.

VANDELIN Has many factors in his favour . Firstly he is low drawn in stall 4 . He is the right age.He is also only once raced this year which fits the "under 3 starts" pattern on recent years. He was also "Placed" on his latest start like the last 6 winners of this race were. He also comes from the segment of the weights that have proven advantageous over the recent years (Over 8st 10lbs) . He loves fast ground . 2 Horses have won with higher weights in the last 10 years so I am not to worried about that, especially as if you count the 3lbs claim of the excellent Liam P Keniry you can argue that 3 winners carried more weight to victory. Andrew Balding has laid this horse out for the race. If You go back a year this horse ran in the Wokingham as a 3 year old and 3 year olds have a poor record in this race with no winners in the last 15 years. VANDELIN was drawn very badly that day as well on the wrong side and it was no wonder he was beaten 9 lengths into 11th . After Ascot he credited himself very well in Class B handicaps moving slightly up the weights and on occasions running over the wrong trip. This year he has had a couple of minor problems but has been laid out for this race all year , and He will be 100% Today. His Prep race was in a listed race at Windsor when not fancied at 33/1, and he ran a cracker when 3rd to Demonstrate (Big Steamer that day) and 7 of his 9 opponents that day were rated Over 100 . The Form looks solid, the winner went on and almost won a listed race next time out at Salisbury beating the 8th at Windsor in the process. That Windsor listed race was way above the level he faces today, much as this is listed class in everything but name, and VANDELIN Was conceeding a race fitness to 8 of his 9 rivals that day. Only he , and another outsider had not raced this year. The Oaks showed us that Anderw Balding is in the Big League now and you can tell the high regard he holds VANDELIN in. Significantly Balding has entered him in the Group 1 July Cup which you dont do unless you expect he can improve into a group class performer and at 20/1 he is a massive price.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ascot 3.45 Golden Jubilee Stakes (Class A) (Group 1) (3yo+) Winner £145,000.00 FIRM

Betting Forecast: Evs Airwave, 5/1 Malhub, 6/1 Choisir, 16/1 Continent, Firebreak, Just James, 20/1 Belle Du Jour, Nayyir, Polar Way, Twilight Blues, 25/1 Danehurst, Three Points, 28/1 Morluc, 33/1 Captain Rio, Khulood, Needwood Blade, Zipping, 50/1 Bahamian Pirate, Danger Over, 66/1 Baron's Pit, Orientor, 100/1 Steenberg.

AIRWAVE . Magnificent was she not ? Is she worth betting ? I will just quote from Nick Mordin and let you make up your own mind. Mordin gets a lot wrong, but when he quotes Facts that can be researched and proven then I sit up and take note. Mordin states that in the last 4 years there have been 112 Three Year old Fillies taking on older males in Group 1 Races . Only 1 of them has won, and that was "Dedication" who won a French Group 1 in the autumn. If you go back past 5 years you will find the only other winner was in the Autumn that year and he believes it to be an imposible task ". You must make your mind up yourself about this star filly. I,ve attributed Mordin with the quote, it is not my work, and its now a matter of making your own decision. Personally at 5/4 I trust that record and would not have bean on her today .

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ascot 4.55 Windsor Castle Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class B) (2yo) Winner £23,200.00 5f FIRM

Betting Forecast: 9/2 Howick Falls, 6/1 Waterstone, 7/1 Holborn, Kingdom Come, Skyharbor, 9/1 Harry Up, 14/1 Shank On Fourteen, Vienna's Boy, 16/1 Bachelor Of Arts, Bo McGinty, Kensington, Trick Cyclist, 25/1 Peak To Creek, Tonto, 33/1 Barbilyrifle, Cupola, Sir Ernest, 100/1 Gallas.

No Analysis from me here but I have two Stats and (feel free to ignore them or use them)
1) Only 1 of the last 14 winners had ran more than twice before and that was in 2002
2) Surprisingly 8 of the last 12 winners were maidens

I hate the race, i,ve played around with it for 15 minutes mainly avoiding the boredom of their form but looking at which will act on the ground. I,m happy with Gary Stevens on Jeremy Noseda's PEAK TO CREEK at 25/1 and I will have a small interest bet. Noseda rates it very highly, said it would win on his first two starts, bred to love the ground, significant jockey booking, decent draw in stall 7 and a lightly raced maiden. That will do.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ayr 1.35

In a normal maiden you would expect the highly regarded CHESTER LE STREET to win this at odds on, but the James Given Fasiliev colt TYZACK is very well regarded and has been touted for some time now as very usefull and will provide a very stern test.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ayr 2.40 This looks very open. I quite like SMIRFYS SYSTEMS at 8/1 ,that ran really well last time when badly needing the run. I dont fancy Uhoomagoo or Jeepstar much, but its wide open and I,d stay with SMIRFYS SYSTEM.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ayr 3.15

Betting Forecast: 9/4 River Falcon, 3/1 Nathan Brittles, 11/2 Frascati, 7/1 Summer Lightning, 10/1 Bollin Janet, Vanished, 14/1 Midnight Special, Seafield Towers, 25/1 H Harrison.

This is a case of "Negatives" rather than positives and although the Negatives tend to steer you to the 9/4 favourite RIVER FALLCON a statistic troubles me about the race. My Negatives are Summer Lightning 7/1 (I Have this as badly handicapped) Bollin Janet 10/1 (Soft ground horse) Vanished 10/1(Soft Ground horse) . This leaves NATHAN BRITTLES who beat Frascati recently as holding a good chance but this is a step up in class and the Jim Goldie trainer RIVER FALCON Who has just ran a credible 4th in the William Hill Trophy behind Dazzling Bay at York
looks to have this race at his mercy. What troubles me is a) a hard race last week and b) the fact that the last 5 winners of this race were all very lightly weighted horses that were not within 14lbs of the topweight. That may be garbage to pay it any creditation, but I would want to know why that has happened before I supported a short priced favourite. RIVER FALCON Has to defy a mark of "80" in this race. The Full record of horses who have tried to win this rated "75" or above is 6,9,4,5,6,7,10,11,12,3,4,6,8,9,11,2,3,4,5,6,9 and 11. Bear in mind that there has never been a field with more than 13 runners and you do start to get an inferiority complex about Top weights. I certainly do and I,m watching him and not betting him although I am more confident about my 3 negatives Not winning (Summer Lightning,Bollin Janet,Vanished) than I am about the Favourite losing.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Redcar 2.20

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Factor Fifteen, 11/2 Sualda, The Judge, 8/1 Analyze, Escalade, 9/1 Castleshane, Fisio Therapy, 10/1 Swynford Pleasure, 12/1 Pagan Sky, 14/1 Sawwaah, 20/1 Donna's Double, 25/1 Rajam.

Hmm. THE JUDGE was our winning account bet 10 days ago at 4/1 and he beat FACTOR FIFTEEN and SUALDA. Now had this been genuine ground then I would be Very confident that FACTOR FIFTEEN Would now beat THE JUDGE . However, it is a lot faster than at Beverley and that really does push things the way of THE JUDGE. Under some circumstances I would be happy to have backed FACTOR FIFTEEN Strongly here, but I have played and replayed the Beverley video and you simply cant rule out SUALDA Who was doing some very decent late work running on fast from a bad draw and I can see why the Post have Tipped him. ANALYZE is a 10f fast ground horse so this is perfect and who can rule out Mark Johnston's in-form yard who run FISIO THERAPY as a 3 year old getting all the allowances in a race where several 3 year olds have won in recent years as had Johnston. No, this is very dangerous and I am out of here fast. For gods sake they are even betting CASTLESHANE and SAWWAAH as well. Have they no shame. Come on. Bail out its better later.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Redcar 4.40

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Kindlelight Debut, 6/1 Bailieborough, Musawah, 8/1 Efidium, Hurricane Coast, Mafruz, Oscar Pepper, 9/1 Supreme Salutation, 16/1 Headland, 100/1 Seven Springs.

KINDLELIGHT DEBUT looks a steal to me at 7/4. This is a really scopey sort who showed an amazing turn of foot to comfetably destroy his Salisbury rivals a few days ago from a bad draw. She had previously ran 3 good races in 3 starts, and whilst its true to say she would enjoy a mile just a little more, she really caught the eye and looks a fast improving filly in form and one to stay with. HURRICANE COAST Looked poor on Video on his comeback run and may need a bit more time. BAILEBOROUGH was a past BBOD runner up at 9/1 last August for us but has moved trainers a couple of times since and is with Dirty Dandy. He has won when "Fresh" before so I pay him respect but he always a strange character for Ed dunlop and not in the same form as our selection. The other 3 year old MUSAWAH does not make as much appeal and perhaps OSCAR PEPPER who has been nibbled early in the market is the one. Personally I Really cant see any of the others troubling this scopey and improving filly KINDLELIGHT DEBUT. She is however a short price, a filly, and all the other stress factors that can worry you and She would not be my best bet of the day but I think she will win all things being equal and 6/4 is my minimum price. To be perfectly honest, I would probably like it a lot more on any normal day but when I compare it to my Evening bet tonight, it just seems a bit Flat to me and lacking in strength. You should not compare bets really but I cant get this horse out of my head tonight . That is a 10 times better bet. You have to ask yourselfs what can beat you and there are some tough creatures here that could be a bit streetwise for her and you have to be carefull.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Redcar 5.15

Betting Forecast: 5/4 Acomb, 2/1 Ardent Lady, 6/1 Lautrec, 9/1 Gemini Lady, Weaver Of Dreams, 14/1 Old Bailey, 40/1 Taipan Lad.

For anyone wanting to play up their winnings from ARDENT LADY a couple of weeks ago I think she will win again. I,ve done this race on the phone with a friend . We both agree her 13lbs advantage from topweight to 2nd topweight is a magnificent sign of her superiority . After a good half hour deliberation we both feel she will win , but that a) We dont know enough about her rivals and b) If she is beaten it will be because she comes from a stiff track that she relished over an extended 9f last time back to a sharp track today . That could be a problem on ground riding like an ice rink and
I can see potential problems. I am in no doubt she is the best horse in the race though and I think she will win, but I,ve had money out of her already this year and i,m not personally going to bet her unless i,m a long way in front by then. I would not put you off her .

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Warwick 7.10


Selection = La Vie Est Belle


Betting Forecast: 15/8 Danifah, 9/4 La Vie Est Belle, 11/4 Disco Diva, 14/1 Little Flute, 20/1 Diversification, 25/1 Berry Racer, 33/1 Come On Patsy, Time's The Master.

Its turning into one of these days as I Think I have another in LA VIE EST BELLE . I am struggling to put into words how strongly I fancy this and she is the bet of the week. To be honest I am going to collapse her price today,which is sickening. In fact , It is a pointless excercise even giving it as a bet . It is completely irrelevant . Whether I do or dont, i,ll collapse the price anyway.

If I send the bet ay 9am it is marked and hammered all day. If I update at 5pm then it will still be hammered at 5pm and collapse anyway and that will affect its price. If I update 15 minutes before the race then it will frustrate everybody, and the price may have gone anyway from others.

Now i,ll accept that I cant know much about any of these, they are lightly raced and unraced types, and she is a Filly but I love her chance. Last night they were betting DISCO DIVA But i,m not sure I can see why when LA VIE EST BELLE Looks better. She is 3 months older for a start , but I like her Bath run last time. She set a blistering pace that day with a Roger Charlton horse (Tentative) who was odds on. This pair had their rivals toiling and being heavily ridden and thats the essence to why I fancy her strongly tonight. She is Drawn 1 at Warwick with a draw advantage and a track with a very short run in and I cant see her being caught. That form is not half bad. LA VIE EST BELLE was beaten by the Roger Charlton filly and that is no disgrace, but she was only just beaten and only just caught by a horse called Seguidilla form Gyles Braverys yard for 2nd. This Seguidilla from Braverys is a very well thought of horse, and Bravery thought enough of her to run her behind Attraction ( and it ran really well from a bad draw) . Now for me, that was a very good run, she easily beat the 4th that day ( Who was a Mark Prescott / Cheveley Park horse) and she was squeezed up in running later in the race and possibly lost half a length. LA VIE EST BELLE is nicely entered up in some expensive sales races later in the year and the stable are in form. I Can simply see her blasting out from stall 1 and having far too much toe for any of these and I think she is a big price at anything over Even Money.

Quite why DANIFAH is priced up shorter in the Racing post beggars belief. It is probably as DANIFAH has already beaten LA VIE EST BELLE.
Dont worry about that . DANIFAH Had had 2 races already and had experience, and LA VIE EST BELLE was Greener than Shakin Stevens Door.
He was given an easy race, just behind DANIFAH and having seen the video i,m in absolutely no doubt we will beat her tonight. DANIFAH is regressive. You have only got to look at her numbers, and the Postmark figures she has show that her best race was on her debut 7 races ago and her "2nd best" figure was on her second start. She looks regressive, wayward, moody and not the type of horse that will improve or fight or go past a horse. This is her 8th start, she is already regressing and has no scope . She has a wide draw as well, and I hate her chance tonight .

DISCO DIVA is probably the main danger . We are in front of the horse by some way on my numbers and I,m not afraid of her at all, but you can always give them some sort of chance as you dont know how much they can improve, or how fit they are in past races. She could be the banker forecast option. I am pretty sure that DISCO DIVA really wants 6 furlongs and may find this happening a bit too quickly this evening. She looks a 6f horse on pedigree to me.

I am sure LA VIE EST BELLE Will lead tonight from Stall 1. The 3 stalls next to her have nothing I can see to trouble us. Right next to her in stall 2 you have an Unraced horse LITTLE FLUTE who comes from a stable that are 1 from 39 with unraced 2 year olds , and that winner was in 1999 and the Sire is not known for debutant winners.In stall 3 you have DIVERSIFICATION who only cost £1000 and is the second string and an outsider. In stall 3 you have a dissapointing flop that can not be fancied on any of two runs this year. LA VIE EST BELLE Should get the rails very easily and take these apart .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++