Today's Racing


To be perfectly frank, I feel a bit "Rushed" today and I have not settled at all. I Blame the Newsagent who did not have a copy of the Racing Post for me till an hour later than he usually does, and its pschologically bugged me all morning . I,m just shaving my stakes back about 25% today as I am not settled and feel rushed. My Personal Bets at the Bottom of the message which is below standard today and shoddy workmanship. I have not even considered any account bet.It is Really tough going every year at Goodwood and I am glad I didnt bother much with the meeting yesterday . If You do not give this place full respect it can bury you hard and fast. Some of the races have endless possibilities and if you dont pick and choose what you bet , expecting many winners is going to dissapoint you. Wednesday will see very soft ground and I can not believe for one moment that there is any of the advertised "Good-soft". I,d say Heavy ground was more likely. As for today I have been Too Busy for a "Frilly" message . I Have not even had a chance to look properly at the Night Cards .Just a selection of Positives and Negatives today and an uncomplete list at that. I,ve been thrown off track with non runners, price changes, horses becoming appaling value and it has been a very unpleasant study session . Personal Bets will tell the Full Story again today because the DRV Looks shabby. Sometimes the typing can undermine the selections . That is a dangerous situation. Incidently i,m hoping to be Fully operational with both E Mails shortly , i,m expecting Friday afternoon. The 0871 Pin Number will change as well soon.

POSITIVES


1) Goodwood 2.05

MARAKABEI and HEIR TO BE stand out to me as soft ground loving stayers who are very overpriced at their paper quotes of 9/1 and 8/1.The trouble is they will stand out to many others and will both be "Public" horses. Pricewise have drawn the same conclusion as me, as has a third party. Its a shame there are 15 runners here and I prefer MARAKABEI as he is at least in proven good form, but rule out either at your peril.
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2) Carlisle 4.10

Betting Forecast: 3/1 White Park Bay, 7/1 Hula Ballew, Inistrahull Island, 10/1 Christina Sanchez, Gemini Lady, Good Form, Miss Ocean Monarch, Rockerfella Lad, 12/1 Shin Paradise, 14/1 Chantry Falls, Tanga Dancer, 16/1 Think Quick, 20/1 Lark In The Park, 25/1 Jenavive, 33/1 Back In Spirit, Mister Rushby, 66/1 Lassitude, 100/1 Davy Leese.

ROCKERFELLA LAD has a bit more on his plate than when winning at Thirsk but he did that very well. I liked him on video and the overnight rain has given him the edge. This is the type of race taht will suit him, but whilst you can say the same about many of his rivals, many of who can not be ruled out, the fact remains that any price over 5/1 is value for this horse and his general 10/1 and 12/1 quotes are insulting .
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3) Carlisle 4.45

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Nellie Melba, 7/2 Pop Up Again, 9/2 Zyzania, 7/1 Pilgrim Princess, Tancred Arms, 10/1 Quick Flight, 16/1 Mesmerised, 20/1 Court Music, Landofheartsdesire, 25/1 Alice Brand, 33/1 Ameras, Barrosa, 50/1 Jessie, 66/1 Printsmith, Sandorra.

LANDOFHEARTDESIRE was the small bet I had on Saturday at 25/1. I was aware that she was a better 7f horse than a miler and Saturdays trip was slightly too far for her but she took a bump in Saturdays race and that knocked her chance. She now drops to 7f, gets her soft ground and she has been backed from 20/1 to 14/1. She could pop in and may be worth a bet with minimum stakes.
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4) Carlisle 5.20

Betting Forecast: 11/2 Exalted, Hirvine, 7/1 Geri Roulette, Patricia Philomena, Sports Express, 8/1 Lady Lakshmi, 10/1 Chevin, Copplestone, Simple Ideals, 14/1 Ellway Heights, Mama Jaffa, 25/1 Laud Karelia, Lion Guest, 66/1 Ton-Chee.

SPORTS EXPRESS and HIRVINE interest me a great deal. I am just giving the nod to SPORTS EXPRESS from this pair mainly based on A.O.R. and the fact that Hirvine's stable are struggling for winners. I Have spent quite a time on this race and played some video's and this pair have outstanding claims. HIRVINE detested what he was being asked to do last time and will now love this test and ground . SPORTS EXPRESS is another mudlark who achieved things few of these ever will on his last start .
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5) Goodwood 3.15

Betting Forecast: 13/8 Kalaman, 5/2 Trade Fair, 11/2 Moon Ballad, 6/1 Zafeen, 8/1 Where Or When, 14/1 Norse Dancer, 20/1 Statue Of Liberty, 40/1 Eventuail, Reel Buddy, 66/1 Spartacus, 150/1 Blatant.

Much depends on whether KALAMAN will handle Soft Ground or not. Personally I Wont give him the benefit of the doubt at his short price. This is because The Aga Khan's racing manager Pat Downes said on Irish 2000 Guineas day that they were pulling KALAMAN Out due to the soft ground. Downes said they "may have risked it" as it was a classic if the ground was no worse than good to soft but would not try soft ground and this horse wants faster ground. People seem to have forgotten about that and bearing in mind his price I think the value lies elsewhere. I,m another in the "TRADE FAIR Wont stay on this ground" camp and could not bet him or ZAFEEN. The problem with this race is that almsot every runner has massive Question marks. I've looked at every runner and to be honest the ONLY Horses that I could back in this race are outsiders STATUE OF LIBERTY at 20/1 , EVENTUAIL at 40/1 and i,m also keen on NORSE DANCER despite the trip being a bit sharp.

x Stop Press KALAMAN and WHERE OR WHEN are NON RUNNERS.
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NEGATIVES

1)Goodwood 2.05

Betting Forecast: 11/2 Kristensen, 13/2 Mana D'Argent, 7/1 Bobsleigh, It's Definite, Random Quest, 8/1 Riyadh, 9/1 Heir To Be, Marakabei, 10/1 Moon Emperor, 12/1 Knavesmire Omen, 25/1 Duke Of Earl, Henry Island, 28/1 Kaparolo, 33/1 Positive Profile, Ulshaw.

MANA D'ARGENTand KRISTENSEN . Mark Johnstons MANA D'ARGENT is a ridiculous price and should not win. The "Johnston" factor has shaved many points off his price, he is best at Ascot, he can not carry weight and he was beaten in this last year when a 5 year old. He wont win for me. KRISTENSEN Has huge doubts on the ground and on his stables form.
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2)Goodwood 2.40

NEVISIAN LAD Won at Newmarket's July Meeting. After the race Bell was interviewed and asked about the stamina of NEVISIAN LAD Who now moves up from 6f to 7f. Bell stated it was far from certain he would stay, said it was "debateable" and that he trained the Dam who did not stay and the sire was a 6f horse. He said he had a chance of staying, as did Kieran Fallon but these were post race vitriolic comments on fast ground. The Rain (which is against the offspring of Royal Applause) suggests to me that NEVISIAN Lad will a) hate the ground b) not get the trip and Had he been a 5/2 chance like his paper quote he would have needed laying hard but as he is a geneal 9/2 chance now the Value has gone from the lay.
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Personal Bets

1)Carlisle 4.10 Rockerfella Lad £60 at 10/1

2)Carlisle 5.20 Sports Express £125 Each Way approx 7/1 (SP.Odds)

3) Sussex Stakes. I Have traded a few of the outsiders so my bet here wont reflect what I have done myself. If I had not done that I think the bet now would be Statue Of Liberty and Norse Dancer at 10/1 and 10/1 as two seperate Split stake bets. Stakes possibly £80 on each.

4) Goodwood 3.50 Double Obsession £80 at 8/1
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