Best Bet of the Day

NO BET

No Official Bet on a wet dull Monday at Dunstall Park , but I am having a Few Bets myself . My football bet (below) will rank as one of my strongest bets on the day as will PRINCE MINATA at 8/1 ( W 3.30 ) and LILLIES BORDELLO 16/1 ( W1.45) . SANTANDO Looks a banker to me but is too short to Advise as a bet . I Like all 4 but I cant realistically advise The Football bet as a BBOD . Be aware i,m changing all the NonPremuim Rate back up line numbers this week .Details to follow .

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Football

YACUBU AYEGBINI

Portsmouth v Leicetser (First + Last Goalscorer)

Split stake bet advised

YACUBU AYEGBINI 7/1 First Goal Scorer (Lad, Cor , Ukbet,Tote)
YACUBU AYEGBINI 7/1 Last Goal Scorer (Lad, Cor , Ukbet,Tote)

Following on from my Winner the other day when Portsmouth Beat Derby 6-2 I find myself having to play again. Its been years since I've had a bet on the "First or Last " Goalscorer markets, in fact it Was a winner at 5/2 when Alan Shearer scored against Stevenage in the FA Cup many moons ago, and this sort of bet ALWAYS Takes a degree of luck , but its time tonight to have a further bet . The Game is Portsmouth v Leicester, a tight, classy top of the table clash in Division 1. The Players name is YACUBU AYEGBINI and he plays for Portsmouth and I know a bit about him. He is a machine. He is a certainty next season to play for a Top Premiership club like Liverpool or Villa , and Portsmouth will have no hope at all of keeping hold of him. He is the next Dwight Yorke .

Nigeria international YACUBU AYEGBINI , signed from Maccabi Haifa . He was supposed to be a Derby County player but a work permit fell through and Derby missed the Boat . He has since married a European lady hence his eligibility to play for Portsmouth . Derby, and those close to my local side have always known his brilliance . He has scored five Champions League goals this season before his transfer , one against Manchester United . He played his first Full game this year on February 1st , when he scored after 3 minutes . In his second game, against Derby he scored twice and the Derby players said they have never seen a monster like him . They are saying that this player is about to become a superstar . Paul Merson recently stated that he played like he was sat on a motorbike and that he was faster than Shearer . Harry Redknapp compares him to Tierry Henry . Very few know how good he is . Very soon they will and in only a matter of weeks his Spread prices and First/Last Goalscorer prices will half in price and value . Its time to chance our luck and hope that he can score tonight . I was tempted by Betfair 6/4 "to score in any time " but there is never enough liquidity there so its a SPLIT STAKE Bet for me on YACUBU AYEGBINI to score the FIRST Goal tonight , and the LAST Goal, and that could be a winner both sides if he scores both . He is 7/1 with Ladbrokes, Tote , Ukbetting and Corals and you will look back in a few months and this kind of price for him will be Fish and Chip paper by then . Massive Price about a machine and the secrets about to explode. This Bet won't be on the phone line . Its not for security reasons , it's simply because I can't pronounce it . It's also LIVE ON SKY TONIGHT at 8pm .

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Number Changes

Just informing you that the Non Premium Rate Numbers for the Back Up Line will be Changing Towards the end of this week and when I get them through I'll send them out a couple of days before they go Live .

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Cheltenham and the Magazine

I just want to put you in the picture about Cheltenham , the "Dossier " and Plans I have . Having had a long chat over the weekend with a Colleague and another Tipster whom I speak to a lot , I have decided to slightly amend plans for the Cheltenham Dossier and I just want to explain what's happening . Longer term members will remember that in 2001 and 2002 I ran a series of " Magazines " which were in addition to the Daily E Mails , which were very popular and detailed . I have contemplated doing similar ventures many times since and I am now going to jointly write a Magazine with another Tipster . The Cheltenham Dossier will be included within this magazine . The Magazine will be available by E Mail on the Sunday before Cheltenham ( March 9th ) . As with everything I do in this department , it will be Huge , and contain Masses of detail and things that I think will be enjoyable . It will be probably the Biggest piece of work I have ever undertaken and Without being certain yet of the length of the Magazine , ( Which We have yet to name) , I would be disappointed if it wasn't more than 50-100 Pages Long . It will be a Massive Document and will contain over 30 or 40 articles for you to enjoy . My Partner for this venture is highly qualified as a Tipster , a Journalist with a credible track record and above all, He's a Punter like me and He talks my language and He runs his own service . As I said above , The Cheltenham Dossier goes ahead , and that will simply be Within the Magazine . It's a Firm commitment and it's already been worked on and it is probably the most ambitious thing I have done , and it will hopefully be the Best . We have already got planned a Full look at the First 2 Newmarket Classics and the Lincoln , articles on Arbing and Betting Exchanges , Interviews and many other Things . It will be with you in 21 Days and you know what I'm like and how long it could be ! If anyone wants any specific topic areas that they want covering , or any ideas or subjects they want to read about then let me know quickly. Anything considered. There are contributions welcome from anyone and the final thing to say is that members will get this free.

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Saturdays Summary

Got out of Jail with the "Mentions " on Saturday . Both Wolverhampton bets won easily , BHUTAN at 11/4 and QUEENSBERRY at 5/4 after the Lingfield horses ran badly at 5/1 and 7/1 . I Advised a few win doubles and each way trebles and You should have been Fine with those and they should not have cost you any money and you may have won a few quid .

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Today's racing

Wolverhampton 1.10

Betting Forecast: 10/11 Parachute, 5/1 Glory Quest, White Plains, 6/1 Joely Green, 7/1 Fortunate Dave, 25/1 Western Command.

PARACHUTE is a total machine , but is crying out for 2 miles. When he won at Southwell 3 starts ago, the further he raced the easier he won and his C+D Win here at Wolves over 12f was only gained by rapid late headway staying on to just get up and win .
The Time at Wolverhampton was really impressive but this 12f trip is certainly his bare minimum and PARACHUTE was very weak in the betting that day . I said that day in MM1038 that ........ " IF He's beaten it will be the combination of a hotter race and better class Opposition , and the sharper track and that's why people are trying to lay him ". He Got away with it and looked stylish . This is however a smaller field, No easier a contest , and a Male Professional is replaced by a Kid who has never ridden a winner before or the horse in a race .From the position that PARACHUTE was in 3 furlongs out you would not have fancied him with Lester Piggott on board . I Can see him being vulnerable here if the kid doesn't position him well . I can resist the temptation to bet the 10 year old WHITE PLAINS. He looked quite good the other day winning easily but this is a far harder race and he now has Mr B Swarbrick in the saddle and He has never ridden a winner or even been placed in any of his rides to date and that has to hurt the horses chance and I expect this isn't expected by Nigel Shields today . GLORY QUEST isn't a horse I can read very well . I'm struggling to assess his chance here and Gay Kellaways record and style of training hardly makes him an Open Book . He must have a good chance . JOELY GREEN is drifting like a white water raft on the exchanges . WESTERN COMMAND isn't the same horse as he was last year . FORTUNATE DAVE is an interesting runner but from a sharp, shrewd yard and nobody will know how fit and fancied he is today until the market lights up . I'm inclined to suggest that PARACHUTE is vulnerable at 10/11 here but that depends on the Kellaways horse GLORY QUEST Being at his best , it depends on whether WHITE PLAINS Jockey can ride and whether that horse is going to run to form and whether FORTUNATE DAVE is "Ready " either .

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Wolverhampton 1.45

Betting Forecast: 4/1 Czar Wars, 5/1 Blushing Spur, 11/2 Firework, 7/1 Foreign Editor, 8/1 Feast Of Romance, Sal's Gal, 10/1 Gilded Cove, Lady Alruna, 14/1 Air Of Esteem, 16/1 Lillies Bordello, Mandy's Collection, The Gay Fox, 25/1 Speedfit Free.

AIR OF ESTEEM can't win for me at 6 furlongs . FEAST OF ROMANCE is still some way off peak form and I don't fancy him either .
FOREIGN EDITOR would be a serious runner if he could repeat his "Comeback" run 3 starts ago but his last two starts would not be good enough to win this . BLUSHING SPUR seems pretty consistent these days and has a decent chance without appearing to be of particular interest today . CZAR WARS is a modest animal but in Good form . GILDED COVE is hard to fancy as a 3 year old with a long absence . SALS GAL On her best form would go very close . LADY ALRUNA Will fined a race but I can't have her today . Every Dog has its day and the Post are right to say that "plenty have realistic options " . Another with chances is FIREWORKD . He is a Dog and I got him wrong last time when he won on his 23rd start . He did however dominate , have them all in trouble early , clocked a good time and whilst lucky to win against a fast finishing Queensberry , that horse has boosted the form by winning for us on Saturday night . He did bounce out from stall 1 though last time and he may not be able to dominate like he did last time , and He also my not match LILLIES BORDELLO Who is the Clear Selection for me and outstanding value at 16/1 and who is owned by the Wife of Footballer Niall Quinn .


There is no point boring you about LILLIES Bordello's juvenile form which was exceptional in the context of this race , as clearly she has not matched that form after a spell in Ireland which was disappointing for whatever reason . She significantly returned to England back with her old trainer Kevin Ryan , but she was a badly handicapped horse off "85 " . She has run 4 times since. She had Helen Garner in the saddle when beaten 10 lengths in a 0-94 showcase handicap finishing 12th but beating 4 horses rated over 78 in the process . That probably isn't relevant but she was a 100/1 chance so she can hardly be accused of a bad run . She then had a spin in a claimer and then ran a decent 4th to Blushing Spur beaten only 3 lengths . She has a weight pull with that horse and with CZAR WARS who was behind her that day . She then met (last time) far superior horses and ran very well when outclassed staying on and staying competitive until the death .

ts not often I like Fillies here , and rarely 4 year old Fillies in claimers , but LILLIS BORDELLO is a stupid price at 16/1 and clear value . She was rated 85 just 4 starts ago and is now rated 62 and she should not be that price . FIREWORK is my danger .


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Wolverhampton 2.20

Betting Forecast: 11/10 Santando, 15/8 Mr Gisby, 8/1 Altitude Dancer, 10/1 Kristal Forest, 12/1 Imnotalady, 16/1 Isa'Af, 20/1 Danzig Prince, 25/1 Bodfari Rose, 40/1 Domquista D'Or, 50/1 Daring News, 66/1 Blue Water.

The Big Tip I can give you when looking at ALL AGE Maidens like this is to consult the weight for age tables which is the key to the race.
Without boring you about impact values and statistics of how the age groups fare against each other , the common sense approach is easier and just as relevant . For example a Male 5 Year old maiden , such as MR GISBY has to concede 24lbs to any 3 Year old male horse such as SANTANDO . I am the last person to get hung up about weight on the all weather but in maiden races it's crucial . MR GISBY is rated 60 , yet has to concede 24lbs to SANTANDO . That is basically suggesting SANTANDO ( Who has not got a rating as he has only ran twice) is running off a weight that ( should this have been a handicap which it is not ) of only "37 " . The Weight for age scale does factor in weight for maturity and experience and isn't the Holy Grail, but both Common Sense, History and Statistics More than prove that the 3 year olds have a far superior record to the 5 year olds. They also fare far better than the 4 year olds like KRISTAL FOREST Who is rated 61 and has to give 21lbs to SANTANDO and the other 3 year olds . Bearing in mind that when SANTANDO Was 4th in his last start at Lingfield, he was beaten by horses rated 76, 92 and 75 , it suggests rather strongly that he is slightly better than 37 and there is such a huge gap the risks that he was flattered, or that MR GISBY and co are seriously underrated all become irrelevant and that's why the 3 year olds are almost invincible in these circumstances . SANTANDO is in the Derby as well which does suggest ability more than MR GISBY and co . Another Derby Entry is Mark Johnston's ALTITUDE DANCER Who is also a 3 year old , but the fact he's been well beaten on all his juvenile starts , and is rated only 55 , and comes from Saddlers Wells who under perform on sand He is probably a horse for later in the grass season on soft ground . SANTANDO looks a stone cold banker here . Racing is NEVER that simple , and older horses do and have won races like this against 3 year old Flops . Later on the card In Todays 4.00 race STRAWBERRY DAWN Has just won a maiden as a 5 year old against a 3 year old and has proved to be the exception to the rule , but there were "unusual " circumstances in that scenario and there usually are when it happens and anyone placing money on that happening is at best highly ambitious and at worst reckless . SANTANDO Will beat Mr Gisby for me . I Hate the word " certainty " but if he runs his race its all over .

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Wolverhampton 3.30

Betting Forecast: 100/30 My Valentine, 4/1 Spanish Star, 5/1 Hasina, 7/1 Lazzaz, 8/1 Prince Minata, 9/1 Princess Grace, 12/1 Cool Singer, 14/1 Prospector's Cove, 16/1 Cast Iron, 20/1 Transcendantale, 25/1 Bevier, 33/1 Katies Tight Jeans.

I'm really annoyed with myself here as I missed PRINCE MINATA,s latest start on Video and I need to see it to be certain about the horse, but I like his chance a lot at 8/1 and I will be betting him to reasonably decent stakes at 8/1 . He is just the type to pop up in this kind of race as it's such a bad affair . Three starts ago He was 2nd at 40/1 when trying to steal a race from the front at Lingfield. That could easily flatter him, I'm sure it did but He was just passed by a rival who was officially 14lb better in at the weights , but he still beat horses that are better than this grade . He then went back to Lingfield where I opposed him as he was Drawn 1 over 10 furlongs at Lingfield which is a Killer Draw and he ran very well in 4th place . Last time, he was slightly disappointing , or at least that's how it reads , but I need the Video to reassure myself that everything is Fine with him . He will win soon in this sort of grade and had "last-time" not have happened He may have been a serious bet at 8/1 . I'm taking the view that it was highly significant that Robert Winston rides, and that he did not last time . He is a very big price at 8/1 but I want to feel a supreme level of confidence with my BBOD,s and failing to record his last start robs me of that confidence. There are a few dangers, I don't like LAZZAZ or PRINCESS GRACE , and the rest are pretty moderate , and If You count the number of horses in this race that you can get 20/1 + about then you are only left with 5 dangers to worry about . One of these is the female ridden PRINCESS GRACE who is a filly with poor breeding stats , HASINA who is 0 from 27 , the Vile LAZZAZ Who is poor. I Tell you that is a ridiculous price for PRINCE MINATA at 8/1.


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Horses to Follow

Superchief + Allesandro Severo +riaka king +Baraloti + Town Called Malice + twylight mistress+ pays d'amour +aleron +donizetti +duescals +camlet +pop gun+ fifth edition +marabar +turtle recall +garmoucheh +electrique +eva peron +trekking +online investor +barolo +janoueix
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