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Personal Bets


1) Carlisle 3.55 (1) Rifleman £ 75 (See analysis)

2) Salisbury 5.15 (17) Borrego £150 (Take 4/1)

3) Salisbury 5.15 (13) Deeper in Debt £20 (Saver)


4) Ante Post Bet

F.A.Cup Outright Chelsea 8/1 (9/1 in a place).

This Ante Post bet in time will easily be a free bet and nobody is going to withdraw it! Stakes should depend on how big a free bet you want bearing in mind that when you lay it back you are potentially tying up funds for several months. Needs careful thought but the stakes down to your own cash flow.

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September + Today's Racing

I need to remind you that I'm away from Ayr Gold Cup Day (20th) to the 30th this month. September always mixes two aspects for me. It is the month when you slowly feel the racing gets harder and you wait for the rain to multiply that hardship, yet on the other hand there are some superb handicaps with incredible statistics that drag you in and the Portland next week and Ayr Gold cup are just two of these. It is also an exciting time with the Cambridgeshire just around the corner and Ante Post racing is strong this time of year. I'm going to elaborate more on the Ayr Gold Cup Tomorrow. There are other interesting races as well, obviously the St Leger next week. This weeks Irish Champion stakes does not interest me. Heavy Watering is going on so they can get High Chaparral to race from Ireland and that will count against Falbrav from England and I can easily see them going too far for the benefit of the O'Brien horse. Almashar would want it fast as well but at 10 furlongs I could not have him at such a short price and I feel the form book is a waste of time and the best person that knows who will win is probably the Groundsman. From a "stat" point of view I'll be strong this month and I've started today with some Ayr Gold Cup Stats that are as good as it gets and the Portland will follow possibly tomorrow depending when I can get my greasy hand on the declarations. From an "advised" Bets standpoint in September I want to try and find just the 1 strong bet at a decent price every day and see if we can make some progress. That is not going to be easy and I must admit I am really struggling today to find the one.

CARLISLE is probably marginally easier. The Ground looks fast and that may be the edge to the opener at 2.20. If I do play then I think the edge is laying the front 2 in the market (Big Tom and Wendy's Girl) as I think you have an outstanding chance of getting them both beaten on very fast ground. The Winner could come from any of a handful. Possibly Parallel Lines or (If she behaves herself) Sweet Cando. This is a "watch the market" race but I'm against both the Front 2 in the market. The Nursery at 2.50 did not interest me and all I would say is that I have found a couple of outstanding reasons why Oddsmaker is great value at 9/1 yet I've found 2 reasons why he cant win and I can not which of these reasons should dominate and take precedence.

Carlisle 3.55

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Princes Theatre, 4/1 Cashneem, 9/2 Rifleman, 11/2 Bond Millennium, Torrid Kentavr, 10/1 Border Artist, 20/1 Anthemion, Technician, 25/1 Legal Set, 33/1 Fairy Monarch, Gracious Air.

The 3.55 interested me greatly. I think this is a race that you can take several of these and make a very strong case for them and then realise that you have not considered the full picture. I've looked at the Full Picture and after hours of "Mulling" I have decided what to do about my fancy RIFLEMAN. I Can not begin to tell you how much I love this horses "Class" profile but equally how much I am worried about the fact that he is a Small Horse that carries top weight conceding weight to older horses. If you read my musings every day you will know I have a vendetta against small horses and when they carry Top Weight they really do not want to be the subject of strong bets. Add to this rather large "Demon" is the fact the last time this stable had a winner we were all in short trousers and the horse is drifting like the Kontiki and is friendless in the betting out from 9/2 to 9/1 as I type. These are "Rock solid" reasons why this horse will probably lose today, but I work on "Class" and that Dominates my thoughts in these races and I am stunned at his "positives.

If you look at the last 9 runs of this horse, almost every turf run he has had since April you discover something Miraculous in my opinion. He has met 118 opponents in those 9 races. Now aside from 2 of those horses (and they started 100/1 and 150/1 and just made up the numbers) then EVERY One of those 116 horses were rated Higher than ANY of his Rivals today. He never met anything rated "66" or lower and today the highest rated horse he meets in "66".
That shows that this horse faces a massive drop in class, and Despite my very worrying negatives (above), there is No Way that I can allow him to go unbacked at a price like 9/1. I personally do not think he will win as I think the negatives are very strong, but at 9/1 you do not need a lot on and I have to just have something on him as the Misery of him winning whilst unbacked would be too unpleasant. I really can't advise you either way whether you should join my in my self indulgence or not as my arguments are watertight on both the negative and positive sides. I must have at least something on in the full knowledge he could win or finish mid division.

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Finally at Carlisle Jordan's Elect "should win" a bad maiden at 4.25 but "money buyers" should be aware that Ian Semple says in the media this week that this horse is "short of a gallop" and with an 81 Day absence and a Noseda trained danger I would not want a penny on the horse.

At the other meeting the only bet I can see is BORREGO (+ Saver) and I really like this horse.


Salisbury 5.15

Betting Forecast: 5/1 Borrego, 6/1 I'm Magic, 13/2 Ice Cracker, 9/1 Ajwaa, Woodland Spirit, 10/1 Ballinger Ridge, 12/1 Muyassir, 14/1 Thunderclap, 16/1 Half Inch, Lord Chamberlain, Yorker, 20/1 Brevity, Castaigne, Champain Sands, Dennis Our Menace, Exzilarating, Island Star, 25/1 Deeper In Debt.


BORREGO is a lightly raced Clive Brittain Colt that has just won a 0-69 Handicap at Haydock. I was impressed on video and he certainly was not "all out" at the line and despite holding on from a fast finishing Salinor he had the 3rd a long way back and that has come out and won since, as has the 5th home that day. He looks a fast improving horse that has come right. This is only a 0-70 and with weight for age he looks Chucked in off 8st 13lbs in a 0-70 race mainly against established milers who are going nowhere. This is the big improver in the field and History shows his age group do win this race and are not disadvantaged. I think he is very well handicapped off "60" having only been raised 6lbs for his Haydock run. I think he would have been out quickly after Haydock to take advantage of a certain weight rise but the horse cut his leg and needed a few days to recover and having had 3 weeks he will be fine now and this horse has multiple entries in better class races this weekend and that's a sign that connections believe him to be well handicapped and will strike quickly before he goes up again. The Video has swung it for me and at 4/1 I think he looks a Blot on the handicap. I'm recommending a saver on DEEPER IN DEBT. There has been good money for this horse (25/1 to 10/1) and Jon Akehurst is a man to be feared when the cash is down and it does look a significant market move. At 10/1 he is a Cheap Saver and if I can get him out of the way BORREGO Could lead these a merry dance.


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Postscripts

My "information" source is still suffering a bit with Sciatica and it may be a quiet weekend. He tells me about Jeremy Noseda's PARK ACCORD who makes his racecourse debut on Friday. This horse is well and truly in the public domain though and certain to be Odds on. Its Newmarket's worst kept secret and everyone knows about the horse. It's supposed to be "special" though and oozes Class. This is not the kind of horse that I pay him for though and it may be a couple more days before he has anything for us. One thing I have found with this information, and its probably my fault rather than his, but If he gives me a horse from a stable that he has done well with before, perhaps Noseda, Bell, Fanshaw or Loder, and he tells me to bet the horse, I automatically assume that the stables "Other" runners that day are not decent bets. Because of the nature of his work it's usually lunchtime on the day before when I'm given a horse for the next days racing. Very often when I come to study in the afternoon I find that the same stable have a couple of other runners on the same day and many times they are at shorter prices than the horse I have been Given . I have to assume that these horses have to be avoided, if there was more stable confidence behind them then I have to assume I'd have been told about them. That's almost another "demon" to consider and it's very frustrating. It is something I need to look at. I'm going to start looking at the stable runners he gives me and then comparing them to the other runners from the stable that day and see if there is any mileage in taking a view about these horses and opposing them. If they were decent bets and fancied, we should be told and if we are not its easy to assume that there is not much confidence behind them.

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F.A.Cup Arb.

Chelsea 8/1

The F.A. Cup is Out of everybody's thoughts at the moment as the League Championship has just started and we are still reading about Chelsea's spending and Beckhams Spanish exploits. I Hate Chelsea with a passion and always have had. That said this is going to be a "free bet" because when the Focus turns back on the FA Cup people will soon realise that there is No Way that they can be an 8/1 chance and they could be a lot shorter before they have kicked a ball. It is a well known fact that the FA Cup always falls to a top team and Chelsea are one of those. They are 4/1 to win the Championship so 8/1 to win the Cup is ridiculous. They have a Foreign based team who think the FA Cup is still important. They will soon realise that this is their best chance of a trophy and to save the Blushes of their Russian owner who's spent over 100 Million to fund the team they will be "off" for their Lives to win this. Chelsea have an impressive FA Cup record in latter years - winners in 1997 and 2000 , runners up in 2002 and that 8/1 looks certain to shorten even before the Draw takes place in December. I Know its a ball ache betting so far away and any "arbs" ties money up for long periods of time but you can already lay this back at less than 8/1 on Betfair (albeit it to Mickey mouse stakes) and that tells you this market can only go one way.

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Ayr Gold Cup

I won't be here on Ayr Gold Cup Day (September 20th) as I will be on Holiday for 10 days or so. I still hope to have a bet in the race and find an edge as there are some strong statistical pointers that can narrow the field down dramatically. Here are some important stats for the race as its getting closer.


AYR GOLD CUP September 22nd

Patavellian 9/1 Frizzante 10/1 Hit s Only Money 10/1 Fire Up The Band 14/1 Ratio 16/1 Seel Of Approval 16/1 Fayr Jag 20/1 Move It 20/1 The Tatling 20/1 Dazzling Bay 25/1 Fantasy Believer 25/1 Final Exam 25/1 Forever Times 25/1 Hidden Dragon 25/1 Mutawaqed 25/1 Onlytime Well Tell 25/1 Royal Beacon 25/1 Royal Millenium 25/1 Smart Predator 25/1 Vanderlin 25/1 -

Powerfull Stats

1) 4 years old are strongly favoured and then it's the 3 year olds who are the next best group. The Four-year-olds have taken seven renewals in the past 11 years. Since 1986 only 2 horses have won from other age ranges. The Full record of Ages in 16 recent years are as follows; 3 Year Olds = 4 from 100----4 Year Olds = 7 from 102----5 Year Olds = 1 from 56----6 Year Olds = 1 from 84

2) It is generally best to have run several times already this year, preferably at least 6 times before this race. There have only been 3 horses winning this race in recent years without at least 5 "prep" races and these have been The Brilliant Lochsong, The Group 1 winning Continent and Coastal Bluff and all 3 horses were class animals.

3) Rule out the3 year olds that are still Colts. The 3 year olds that have won this race before have ALL Been Fillies or Geldings. Fillies have a good record.

4) The Draw is crucial and it has been in the Silver Cup (The consolation race) as well. The Easiest Way of ruling horses out here is to eliminate the Central Draws. They forfeit straight line speed when tracking over to join one side or the other and IF They race down the Middle they are in a small group and tend to not be able to "Control" the race. No Winners have come from stalls 9 to 15 in recent years. The Vast majority of placed horses had a High or Low draw as well and Statistically Horses drawn 10 to 19 have TWICE as hard a task as those drawn Low or High . The Last Winning Stalls were 18 28 8 29 27 28 24 8 17 7 22 16. The "Safest" way of playing this "stat" is to give some slack to the horses that are clearly very decent as if any of the horses drawn in the middle do manage to defy this disadvantage it is highly likely that it will be the better class ones and not the average handicappers.

5) You MUST have a horse with Stamina. 11 of the Last 12 winners had won at 6f or 7f before and the only one that hadn't was a Group 1 Winner.

6) Do Not Bet any horse rated Lower Than 89 as they simply don't win this race and are not classy enough to win this race,

7) 15 of the Last 17 winners had won that year already. The Only exceptions were in the Last 2 years. Continent in 2001 who won a Group in the same year and the 2003 winner Funfair Wane who had won a listed race. It's probably fair to say its "Ideal" to have won this year unless you are a class horse.

8) Top Weights are Disadvantaged. Horses at the top of the handicap have fared worse than lightweights although the 4th best horse won in 2002.
To illustrate that we can see the Full list (since 1993) of horses who are asked to Defy Handicap Marks of over 100, and their finishing positions.

101= 21-12-22-26-W
102=7-3-7-24-15-5
103=11-15-20-9-29-20-16
104= 8-13-17-W-25
105=22-12-15-22-9-11-21
106=18-24-5-18-24-6-18
107=4-20-8-13-3
108=12-24
109= None
110=6
112=10

9) Next week sees the Portland Handicap at Doncaster. The last winner of the Ayr Gold Cup that had recently run in a "Portland Handicap" was the Group 1 Filly Lochsong, who won at Doncaster in 1992. Subsequent Portland winners have finished 5, 7,0,0,3, and 0 in the Ayr Gold Cup, while all 72 of the beaten runners have failed in the Ayr Gold Cup as well.

10) It usually pays to side with a four-year-old who has form in this sort of contest, but who did not run in the Portland and has a very high draw.

11) In the Last 11 years there have been 33 horses running with penalties in the race and Only 2 have won.

12) In the last 11 years only 1 Winner started between 5/1 and 9/1. There were 9 winners that started between 10/1 and 18/1. 227 horses in the last 11 years started at 20/1 or above and Only 1 of those won. That was a 33/1 chance in 2000.

13) In the Last 18 years NO Horse has won this without a recent race in the last 8 weeks.

14) There have been countless horses in this race that Failed to finish in the First 6 in their latest start. They have under a 0.6% chance of winning statistically and you simply have to bet horses that finished in the First 6 home last time out. Stay with strong recent form.
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