Mathematician 1070



2 Best Bets of the Day

The Standard BBOD, s

Wolverhampton 2.55 ARPEGIO 1 Pt Win Bet

Newcastle 2.45 IONIAN SPRING 0.5 Pts Each Way

Pretty Nervous Today . I Hate advising 2 bets on a day . I think ARPEGGIO is a great bet but I,m nervous that it is not strong in the market
this morning and that its Dandy Nicholls and his stablemate has been backed Air of Esteem which Cant win for me, so i,m going Full Steam into Arpeggio myself at 4/1 and we shall see what happens .IONIAN SPRING is value at 8/1 and 7/1 and has the Class to Win . Again I am nervous about the horse, the size of the field but I think my reasons are so strong (below) that i,m going for this as well .
The Double pays 45/1 so lets not get any great expectations about them both winning, and dont worry if neither win . Its a long season and plenty of recovery time and I really must like these today to consider advising 2 Bets. I Have given FULL Reasons why I belive they are decent bets in the message and lets hope I have got it right today. All I know is that at 2.45 and 2.55 it will be a stressfull 15 minutes.

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2 Sub Account BBOD'S

Newcastle 4.15 Rudetski 0.1 Pts Win

Minute stake I know (0.1) but it should be about 16/1 (20/1 on betfair) and I have backed it . I Wouldnt have much on but
I,d bet it enough to get back your BBOD Stakes should the proper 1pt BBOD's fail us .

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Saturdays Thoughts

It will be a very long time since we have a weekend of so many strange issues. I don't even know where to begin to start.

Solomon's Mine. The Brilliant Message. The System. The Change of bet. The Second change of mind. The Demons. The Mistake. The 33/1 Gamble. The race. The Loser. The Misery. Then the Lincoln. The Confession I was wrong. The Plea for Pablo. The 2nd change of mind. The Magazine bets. The Personal Lincoln Bets. The Ante Post bets. Then Pablo. Not staking Pablo. The System landing the Forecast. Then the Sub Account. The Losers. Whilst it is all going on Yacubu pops up and scores for Portsmouth again for the 3rd time in 6 games. In fact the whole weekend was a bit like a circus. What a week.

Now its pointless going over it all again, I'm more than happy with the weekend. Some of you will be thrilled and will have cleaned up. You could have had a decent bet on Solomon's at 16/1 and Pablo at 8/1. Some of you will be distraught as you will have backed Quedex and Missed Pablo. It's just been a really strange weekend and it rarely gets like that. As far as the Account goes, I am so pleased that COLISAY Placed as it must have hated the ground and despite Broadway Score the Ante Post BBOD,s recorded a small 0.25 Pts Profit . The Sub Account lost a point. My Apologies for that, the Noseda horse ran terribly .Its a strange track at Kempton and I'll be careful there this year .On Paper it's been nothing spectacular since Friday but how that does not tell the Full Story. With the Lincoln I think I buy Michael Hills remarks that the ground was damaged from last year and needed turfing up and it was not able to dry out as it would normally have done as it was caked and old and damaged. That's probably what happened but when I saw Aldora win on Friday (She was a 12/1 -7/2 Winner as a BBODs last year on Heavy ground) I knew the juice was still there. Surely it can't get that hectic again. Don't know about you but I'm enjoying things at the moment.

I did take some Flak yesterday with a couple of E Mails, both about the Pablo not being mentioned on the 0871 line. I did think I had recorded it on option 3 (personal bets) but mistakenly I recorded it on option 2 (the review message). Through the history of this service I have more complaints about the phone line than anything else. The Criticism was right though and I never mind any moaning when it is justified and it was a poor and pathetic update and I apologise for that. I hate updating the line, especially on Saturday. I'm worn out by delivery time and I have so many calls flooding in from people and friends who want opinions and to talk racing knowing that I can talk freely having done the message. I am simply dreadful at doing the line but I'll try harder in future which seems a regular and lame promise I never keep. The Reason my own personal bets are not on Option 1 (The bets) is that so many call on mobiles and don't want long calls. Once again Apologies to the affected and to the two who suffered and mailed me, (Gary and David) I'll throw in a free £25 bet each to you on anything you like. I reckon that because I never seem to get better at the flaming updates that I may s well punish myself and see if that has any effect.



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Personal Bets

It's complicated today. Below in the Drv are 3 races and I intend to play in each

Newcastle 4.15 Depending on Price RUDETSKI will be approx a £60-£80 bet at 14/1 and 16/1and £20-25 Place depending on how much I need to return the stake if it is placed . As a speculative bet I'm happy with that.

Newcastle 2.45 This is very much a Judgement Call about how the ground rides at Newcastle. Personally I won't listen to the forecast and I will only make my mind up after I have seen the opening race and made a visual judgement. I Think with IONIAN SPRING I'll be looking at about 8/1 and would consider roughly £150 -£200 Part Place. Possibly £200 Win £70 Place would be sensible enough but I won't make a full decision until I can analyse the market. I'm also look to be laying place only if the prices are right with Liberty Seeker being my main target if he is under 7/2.

At Wolverhampton I plan £600 on ARPEGGIO if I Can get some 4/1 or 7/2 but will reduce that to £500 or maybe £400 if that price reduces to 3/1 or 11/4. The bottom Dollar price I'll accept is 5/2.

If I get a chance I'll hunt down some 4/6 about Real Madrid to Knock out Manchester United in the Champions League Quarter Final but I Where that is I don't know but that's a £600-£400 if it exists and I'll go as low as 7/4 on which would be a reduced £350-£200 .
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Today's Racing



Newcastle 2.45

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Archie Babe, 8/1 Start Over, 10/1 Ionian Spring, Liberty Seeker, Spitfire Bob, 12/1 Cita Verda, Red To Violet, 14/1 Noble Cyrano, 16/1 Donna's Double, Polish Corridor, 20/1 Moyne Pleasure, Trouble Mountain, 25/1 Blackthorn, Double Ransom, Double Spey, Erupt, Mana-Mou Bay, Mcgillycuddy Reeks, 33/1 Prize Ring, 50/1 Khuchn.


The Showcase handicap is a Very attractive betting race as you have a bunch of no hopers, a strong (ish) favourite who you can sensibly oppose and a couple of very interesting runners . With ARCHIE BABE you had a Fit runner who won on Thursday over 12 furlongs at Doncaster and who tries to repeat that win (without a penalty) today back at 10 furlongs. I think the trip is an issue, not a big issue but it is certainly a different type of test and he meets far more 10f specialists today than he is. I think the standard of the race on Thursday is pretty similar to today's race and he will go well. He is well handicapped, but he has also had a year off through a knee ligament problem, and it is not a forgone conclusion that he is capable of the form he showed 2 years ago. That said he is sure to go close but I think the above betting vastly underestimates both START OVER and IONIAN SPRING. You could also argue that the possible Drying Ground will be against him

With START OVER and Fallon You have a horse that has been running in better class in my opinion and has been running into form. On The A.O.R. Of the horses he has been facing they more than stand up favourably when compared to ARCHIE BABE and I certainly would not want to lay this horse at 8/1 and he has a great chance. My Reservations are that he isn't a natural stayer, so far this trip seems to be the limit of his stamina and with the ground possibly being on the soft side and patchy, and the track having a stiff uphill finish it is very possible that he could find this trip too far and the test too searching and I prefer IONIAN SPRING at 10/1.

I have to admit I am very wary about tipping a horse owned by the Elite Racing Club and all their 10.000 members. The price may be under pressure, and if the price is as big as I had hoped for you'd wonder how strongly fancied it actually is. This horse though has slipped in beautifully into this 0-79 Class D race. Look at his recent standard of opponents. He has run in Class B C B B B D C C E and the races in Class D and C that he raced in He won both. Looking at his A.O.R (Average Official Ratings), today he faces opponents rated just 62.68. On his last few starts he has dwarfed that. Today the average official ratings of his opponents are 62.68. In his last 4 races they were rated 86.54 + 88.76 + 92.70 + 89.42.

Nov 9th = 86.54 Where he did not stay 12 furlongs in the November Handicap)

Oct 26th = 88.76 His opponents were rated 91 93 8187 92 88 84 96 80 95 90 82 89 84 95 90 92 yet he came 6th and Today's Best rated opponent is rated ONLY "77" at best. Therefore EVERY Opponent he faces in this race would be at least Top weight today IF They were eligible to race which they wouldn't be as they would not be allowed in 0-80 Class.

Sep 21st = 92.70 at Newbury in a 0-105 Class race where he came 9th .The Lowest rated opponent AGAIN would be ineligible to race here and this was a completely different class of contest.

May 16th = 89.42 At York on Ground too fast for him he was 3rd in a 0-105 Class B handicap, Again with his worst opponent ineligible to race against him in today's contest .

So all that makes him look like a Horse that can outclass his opponents today and 10/1 seems Massive. So what can go wrong?

A) Will Top Weight and 10 stone stop him?
That should not be a problem. He is a strong horse, he has earnt and deserved his weight and carried 10 stone to victory at Southwell
In a Showcase Handicap and Won at Chepstow's stiff track carrying 9st 11lbs.
B) What about the Distance and Ground?
He has won on Soft ground at a Grade 1 Track, Good to soft, good to firm and both Fibresand tracks and his record is diverse and he is a multiple winner at 10 furlongs and has won at 9f and stays an easy 12 furlongs.
C) What about his 135 day absence?
It's Ideal as he is "Best Fresh ". He developed a Bleeding problem in May 2001 and burst blood vessels and was sent to Clive Cox. His first race when Fresh was after an absence of 3 months when he Won a 0-70 Race in August 2001. His next race when Fresh was his first start in March 2002 after 5 months off the track. He won again in 0-83 class. His only other race when fresh was last September at Newbury when beaten only 6 lengths in a 0-105 race (mentioned above) when facing far better horses than today.
D) What about his stables form?
May be a problem. Clive Cox is winnerless in 65 days but has only had 4 runners, one of which was placed at 22/1. He has had a winner this year already though and it should be fine, and part of the risks for 10/1 about your cash.

E) What of the other dangers?

I Dislike LIBERTY SEEKER. This is his 1st run in a handicap and he lacks experience .He has downgraded from Channon to Swinbank's and is hardly well handicapped on "75" after a 199 day absence. Swinbank's also stated this week he needs Fast Ground .SPITFIRE BOB Has never shown he can win in this class or act on ground this slow. CITA VERDA is certainly "dark" but looks a hurdler and hasn't an ounce of Flat form since he came over from France as a 3 year old. RED TO VIOLET has a decent chance but she's a filly that has to get the trip and this track takes no prisoners. She is also held by START OVER on Lingfield Last time out form. DONNA'S DOUBLE is an old friend and a past BBOD Winner but this beautiful creature is not a March "First-time-out" horse, She is a Summer horse and ALL Her 10 wins fall between June and October. POLISH CORRIDOR hasn't ever seen soft ground. TROUBLE MOUNTAIN has a lay off, a career high mark, a summer win record and aside from a juvenile win has never done anything on his seasonal debut.

It's IONIAN SPRING for me with the reservation that he has 10,000 owners! I View ARCHIE BABE as saver material only but he isn't a good thing by any means, and I'm also very scared on START OVER But just feel the trip will beat him. I really like him much as I hate the fact his connections are the biggest racing syndicate in the game. This time last year on his seasonal debut he WON at Nottingham, in no worse a race than this (A.O.R. 73.00) Off a Mark of "78" and today's mark of "79" is more than fair for saying that He has been keeping seriously good company. I Fancy him strongly but just wish he was not owned by his connections.

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Newcastle 4.15

Betting Forecast: 7/4 My Line, 9/2 Toni Alcala, 5/1 College City, 10/1 Nandoo, Zarza Bay, 12/1 Needwood Spirit, Rudetski, 20/1 Blossom Whispers, Cheyenne Chief, Haystacks, Scottish Song, 25/1 Knockdoo, 33/1 Sconced, 50/1 Astafort.

This is interesting, but I was hoping it was going to be a little more interesting. Take the Favourite out of the way (Good solid horse but far from reliable at a short price) and the initial fancy is TONI ALCALA each way. He does make "Some" appeal each way as he is one of the only guaranteed stayers in the race. I Think that he is basically " JUST " Above this class and should run well but whilst he may have been a possible bet 2 years ago (watch him go and win now) he isn't now , as he is a slow, classless plodder who lacks inspiration and although appearing reasonably consistent , he's simply isn't much Good. I think that I'd marginally prefer a bet on him each way rather than the favourite (the favourite would be the more likely winner) but neither of those options makes any appeal to me.
The "Middle Section" of the betting are NEGATIVES which is the only reason I'm still looking at the race. I Hate the chances of COLLEGE CITY (huge stamina doubts) , ZARRA BAY (Ungenuine and wont stay) and NEEDWOOD SPIRIT Who is having a prep race I believe and is a horse that puts weight on easily and will need the race and BLOSSOM WHISPERS (Slow plodder and 2nd string). I would give certain of the "rags" more of a chance than the negatives already mentioned. SCONCED is a value bet at 50/1 and I think that can frame if it runs its race but it is far too risky. HAYSTACKS could go well but can't be fancied without a gamble. NANDOO needs to progress having moved from Peter Harris's for only £5k and that's unlikely.

I think the bet here is RUDETSKI, and I'm going to have a small, (admittedly risky) bet, to win a grand. If I can get 16/1 then it will be about £60 or £70 at 14/1 with a "Part-Place" £20 or 25 just to recoup full stakes if he is placed. There are huge risks involved, I wouldn't dream of him being a BBOD But the potential profit FAR outweighs the risks for me and he is a cheap value bet. My Reason is the Trip. He stays 12 furlongs, but he has NEVER been tried at further and I think he wants it. I noticed him on the sand many times this winter being scrubbed along early and running in snatches. It's easy to assume that it is because he is a Mule and ungenuine, and runs in snatches, but I'm not really sure about that to be honest. I Think he MAY Just be a stayer that connections have been mistakenly running at the wrong trip, and that his racing style is down to not being able to go the pace over middle distances . My Evidence is only a little more than guesswork, but he is a half brother to a horse that came 2nd in the 14f Ebor so at least 1 attempt at 2 miles would be sensible and worth the risk. He is also a very big horse that may love this stiffer track and being by Busted he must have every chance of not only staying but loving the step up in trip. He is also experienced, the right age, not much weight to carry, and he has won twice before off far higher marks in the handicap when over half the field have never won any race. He is also the fittest horse in the race, He has won in the class before (E), his stable has had a recent winner and he acts on the ground. Add to that a first attempt at Cheekpieces and he has enough on his side at 16/1and 14/1 for me .Now he is not a certainty by any means, and If you follow me in at 14/1 or 16/1 don't expect to see the most fluent of displays but If I was a bookmaker I'd have him is as 13/2 rather than the price he is and I'm certainly betting him to a £60 - £80 stakes.

x There has been Money for Sconced,Haystacks and Blossom Whispers which has not altered by game plan .
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Wolverhampton 2.55

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Arpeggio, 4/1 Just Wiz, 9/2 Haunt The Zoo, 11/2 Love's Design, 7/1 Air Of Esteem, 10/1 Prince Minata, 12/1 Exploring, Malmand, 16/1 El Raymondo, 25/1 Our Destiny, 33/1 Kingston Game, 66/1 Eyes To The Right, The Scaffolder.

I can promise you something, I am so sick of this course, this surface and this vile sand game that the very fact I have even looked at this race is a massive tip in itself. In fact, being in the DRV Must make this the bet of the century because I detest it so much at the moment. In fact AIR OF ESTEEM won last week and I couldn't even be bothered to look at the race then despite the fact I used to own the horse, and that is incredible for someone like me. It's a Million to one change for me here though and it can't win this race in my opinion, but unless I have some sort of post Lincoln Virus, or whether I have Post traumatic sand disorder, then surely ARPEGGIO is a certainty?

I Trust my A.O.R, s (Average Official Ratings) more than I trust anything. I find these to be totally illuminating, and only one or two people use them which I am very pleased about. Yes they work better in handicaps, but my figures here are so violently in favour of ARPEGGIO I'll be astonished if he is beaten.

ARPEGGIO

Faces Rivals Today with A.O.R Of 50.66
His last 3 races were against opponents with AOR's of 82.92 + 92.41 + 56.18

JUST WIZ

Faces Rivals Today with A.O.R Of 50.83
His last 3 races of 82.84 + 71.50 +56.09

AIR OF ESTEM

Faces Rivals Today with A.O.R Of 56.91
His last 3 races of 47.33 + 53.30 + 47.53

HAUNT THE ZOO

Faces Rivals Today with A.O.R Of 50.75
His last 3 races were against opponents with AOR's of 58.18 + 49.25 + 62.40

LOVES DESIGN

Faces Rivals Today with A.O.R Of 50.75
His last 3 races were against opponents with AOR's of 47.40 + 44.71 + 45.72


These figures illustrate that AIR OF ESTEEM Faces rivals that should eat him alive. LOVES DESIGN basically is facing FAR Better rivals than anything he has met recently, and he hasn't faced rivals this good in a long time. I Backed LOVES DESIGN Last time and it was given a joke ride, and should have won, but when you consider that he met rivals rated only 47.40 as an average, and the likes of Just Wiz an ARPEGGIO Ran in 0-100 Handicaps and met Rivals averaging Over "80" , it stretches belief that he can win this race . I know LOVES DESIGN has been out of form a long time, and I suppose you can say he is now running into form but EVEN If you judge him on his best wins, they still fall short of what I am asking him to achieve today. HAUNT THE ZOO races in a race that he is capable of winning, but that would be without ARPEGGIO in the race. He hasn't been seen in over 300 Days though and his stable hasn't seen the winner's enclosure in over 200 days.

JUST WIZ is on paper at least, the BIG Danger but I fancy ARPEGGIO to beat him. They met Over 9f here 3 races ago when JUST WIZ Won by 2 lengths. I have not recorded that race unfortunately but ARPEGGIO today is 8lbs better off, but the crucial factor for me is that
JUST WIZ That day was running at his BEST Trip of 9f , and he is a FAR Better horse at that trip (won 5 times at 9f and never at 8f) than he is at today's trip of 8 furlongs and he NEVER Runs as well at this trip . Since then, they both met again at Lingfield in Movie Kings 50/1 race over 10 furlongs. Now JUST WIZ was 10th and ARPEGGIO was 12th of 14 runners, but don't worry about that, it was a 0-93 handicap and far better class than this and a falsely run race. ARPEGGIO was badly hampered that day and lost a lot of ground and could easily have hammered JUST WIZ But the jockey just chose to cruise out the last 100 yards whilst JUST WIZ was under the Cosh
and ARPEGGIO could easily have finished 3 or 4 places better and be mixing it with the likes of the 88 rated KEPLER and the likes of Free Option, Blackmail and Brilliant Red who would all be "Odds on " in this race . None of the other runners look good enough.

ARPEGGIO can win when fresh; Dandy Nichols states he is "best fresh" so the 37 day break doesn't worry me. Come on; look at his penultimate run when 3rd in a 0-100 Handicap. He has BEATEN

1) Eastern Breeze rated 92 (who had just won a Class C handicap off "87")
2) Shami rated 96 (Who's just won a Class Handicap off "92" for David Loder)
3) Compton Bolter rated 100 (Excuse me? wasn't this just beaten 2 lengths by Parasol in the winter Derby?)
4) Kelpie rated 74 (came out and won twice afterwards)


I don't think he has too much to worry about against the likes of AIR OF ESTEEM or LOVES DESIGN. If I had to nominate the MAIN Worry I have then it is stall 1. It is not the best draw and I am very nervous about his draw , but I cant not bet him , and He is a £600 bet if I can get 7/2 or 4/1 with that being reduced to about £500 of I have to settle for 3/1 or 11/4. With the draw, it isn't the best of draws, but Yorker won here at 20/1 on Saturday night and that has to be a good sign.