Very Tough day at Lingfield . Brilliant day's racing on the Jumps . I wont distract your enjoyment of the jumps races much. Lingfield has some tough looking races as usual at the Surrey Track. There is No Bet Today from me but there is a preview (Below) of the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at 2.55 If you have not already read it on the Message Board. Wolverhampton is on after an inspection this morning. I have done no work there in case it was abandoned but I Will be around tonight and will post any views I have on that card on the Message Board. I,ll also update there with match bets at Lingfield .


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Personal Bets


No Bet


All Weather

The 2 Drvs at Lingfield select Sea Holly at 10/1 (Lingfield 1.25) and Sir Desmond at 4/1 ( Lingfield 2.30). Neither are strong enough to advise as bets. I Will have a nibble on Sea Holly myself at about 10/1 but I can take or leave Sir Desmond as these races requires quite a bit of fortune.

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Football - Ipswich Town to beat Derby County.

I have backed Ipswich at 1.58 and at 4/7 to beat Derby this afternoon and I expect them to win.

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Jumps.

Sandown 2.55 (10) East Tycoon 6/1
Sandown 2.55 (1) Old Vic ( Saver)

Obviously the Sandown 2.55 is a Jumps Race and That will not Count as an Account Bet . I am Betting EAST TYCOON and Saving on OLD VIC to break Level if he wins. If I was only allowed to see 1 race today then this would be the one I want to watch. It will also be my biggest staked bet on the day.

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Today's Racing


Lingfield 1:25 Bet Direct No Q On 08000 93 66 93 Handicap (Class E) (3yo+,0-75) 1m5f STAND

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Cold Turkey, 5/1 Maystock, 6/1 Kristoffersen, 10/1 Sea Holly, Western, 12/1 Big Bertha, Danakil, Lazzaz, 14/1 Mandoob, Most-Saucy, Mumbling, Reminiscent, 20/1 Easter Ogil, 33/1 Go Classic.

Selection - SEA HOLLY ( 10/1)
Saver - Maystock (5/1)

Interesting staying race over 13 furlongs. There could be a bit of value here with SEA HOLLY but more about him later. Gerard Butler trains MAYSTOCK in this race and Used to train KRISTOFFERSEN But that horse has downgraded stables and now runs for Robert Stronge. Thats a Negative for this horse. On the face of it his 3rd behind Golano for Butler after a 4 month absence last time out is form that has to be respected and gives him every chance but I wonder why the horse has left Butlers and I cant get past the fact that he may have had problems and He isn't a sensible bet now that he has been relegated from a Class stable to a Minnow. Butlers sole runner MAYSTOCK Has an excellent chance. I liked him when he won a handicap earlier in November and he seemed to handle a step up in class really well last time. This is only a 0-73 today but his "running on" 4th in a 0-95 Last time is far better form than almost all of these and he looked quite good on video as well bearing in mind the class of the race. Now the horse has won a race he may be going the right way and he is certainly in the right stable for that. His last race had 13 opponents in it that would ALL Be Topweight in this race today and that is form some way in advance of what COLD TURKEY has achieved. COLD TURKEY may be a fast improving horse though. He won his last race in the grass season off "72" and has gone on to win 3 on sand now off "66" "68" and "67". Those races were in 0-68, 0-68 and 0-79 races so this 0-73 will be within his compass. He has risen to "75" in the handicap though , and that's a career high mark and he has to do it again today. I wouldn't be afraid to oppose COLD TURKEY. When he won his 4 races he was on a Hot Streak and won them off Gaps of 11, 5, 18 and 12 days and Now he has had 18 days without a run, and although the "18 days" is no problem in itself , I just wonder whether he may not be in the same rich vein of form. He may not be as fit, he may not be as "On the game" as he was and whilst holding a strong chance (and no more without more improvement) from a handicapping point of view and being the shortest price in the race I do not feel he is much value much as he can win. WESTERN doesn't inspire me much. He was beaten by COLD TURKEY last time and is better off at the weights but that has improved a lot since and I dislike his 37 day absence or any of his Grass form. BIG BERTHA was behind WESTERN recently and has a bit to find on form as well and a 37 day absence and a stable winnerless since August and an overall 5% strike rate also puts me off. DANAKIL is very well handicapped. He has been hurdling with a bit of promise so watch for a market move as this horse has ability.
MOST SAUCY is racing out of his best trip zone . Overall I think SEA HOLLY is a big price at 10/1 as he looks on the upgrade. He ran into Bucks on Fibresand and was well beaten but it was a fast time and that horse is going places and although SEA HOLLY'S Next run was winning only a maiden he did it nicely and won with a bit in hand. His numbers are gradually getting faster, he only has to get this extra 1f today and I'm confident he will. He isn't badly treated off "73" and he will improve as much as many in this race and he is overpriced at 10/1.

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Lingfield 2:30 betdirect.co.uk New Site Handicap (Class D) (3yo+,0-80) 6f STAND

Betting Forecast: 4/1 Sir Desmond, 9/2 Just Fly, 11/2 Awarding, Compton Banker, 8/1 Only One Legend, Prima Stella, 10/1 Override, 12/1 Jayanjay, 16/1 Emerald Fire, 25/1 Consensus, The Fisio, Turn Around, 33/1 Goodwood Prince, Telepathic.

Selection = SIR DESMOND

JUST FLY 9/2 - No problems with the track. The horse won a Nursery here as a 2 year old over this trip off "75" at the end of the season having fractured a hind leg earlier in the year. Started his 3 year old career rated "81" and after running well here in January 2003 He was rested until the Grass Season. JUST FLY Had two poor runs (not fit) and then popped up at 20/1 at Sandown in a similar race to this over an extended 7f when he had the best of the draw. Beaten when up in class we saw him again after a 5 months absence 2 weeks ago when a very credible 5th in a race run in a fast time. He certainly had the run of the race out front before being swamped close to home but the ratings of his opposition were impressive. He is Top weight here off "80" yet only 2 of his 14 opponents last time out were rated less than he was and 12 of them would be ineligible to race in this race for being rated as too good. On his last time out performance he deserves to be favourite. That was the first time against older horses. The Worries today would be the fact he could "Bounce", whether he could get the race run to suit him so well again , and the Trip of 6f. He has not raced at 6f since his juvenile days and having shown that he stays a stiff 7f at Sandown well enough to win you may question whether 7f is his best trip despite having plenty of pace. Good Chance.

AWARDING 11/2 - Won a Maiden here on sand as a 2 year old and was rated "82" on the strength of that. His 3 year old career started very promisingly with two excellent efforts in Class B handicaps but he went off the boil after that. The stable had a very poor season. They only had 1 winner from 65 horses from March to July and AWARDING suffered like many of the horses. Some of his form at 5f and 6f was really encouraging but he started to look frustrating. He sweated up in races and some suggested that he had temperament problems. Enough was enough and the trainer Gelded him and we have not seen him since Mid August. This horses Chance depends on 2 factors. a) His trainers ability to get him fit after an absence b) Whether the Gelding has been the making of him. Horses can sometimes transform themselves for being gelded and it will be interesting if he is nibbled in the market at a big price.
When looking at this race I considered him as the Selection at a big price but was surprised he was as short as 11/2 and I would want almost treble that.

SIR DESMOND 4/1- More exposed than most of these but talented enough to win this. He is essentially a soft ground horse on grass but you would not rule him out being very effective here after his latest start . His first ever start on this surface was last time out and that puts him bang in the firing line with a brilliant run and a fast time 3rd behind Texas Gold who is easily listed class on this surface . The speed Law Breaker was 2nd and that is very good form in a race where evey runner had chances and the strength in depth ran deep . He has plenty of winning experience in big fields and he carries weight without a problem. Reservations are that he has never won off this handicap mark before (He isn't handicapped out of it by any means racing off "78" when he has won off "76" and "77" before) and his hold up style that may see him hit traffic problems. You can say that for most of these though . A Simple reproduction of his run 10 days ago would see him probably win and he will be one of the Fittest horses in the race.

CONSENSUS 25/1 - Mel Britain's Filly is well handicapped but an atrocious run at Southwell last time (even allowing for hating the track) and I cant forgive her that as she is a filly from a stable that really do not have many winners at all on the flat. They have had a couple of jumpers win recently but this isn't a horse to put money on and she hasn't ran well in some time.

COMPTON BANKER 11/2 - Gerard Butler's horse won a handicap off "90" 18 months ago but then lost his confidence. He was struggling to make an impression in better-class races but he came good last time out. His win last time out was the result of a 20lbs drop in the weights and a drop in Class. That was a 0-72 and he is back up in Class today slightly to a 0-80 and a 4lbs higher mark. He won nicely last time and had plenty in hand but I suspect they went off too fast last time and it suited his late swoop. He has the ability to win a 0-80 despite his advancing years but The biggest problem for him might be getting a run if, as usual he breaks slowly. He seems to need things their own way and this drop back to 6f may hurt his chance in this race. He has a decent chance and I would have him in at about a genuine 6/1 chance.

JAYANJAY 12/1 - Ran 7th last time in similar class here over C+D but wasn't given a hard race and looked capable of better on Video without being eye-popping. He is also well handicapped having won from a 2lbs higher mark. He is a speedy sort and could run well. If he reproduces his last run he will find a few too good for him and he needs to step up 7-10lbs to win this, and he is another "Hold up" horse that will need the breaks but if he won it wouldn't be a big shock. I don't have him near the top of my list but he does have a chance.

OVERRIDE 10/1 - Lightly raced James Eustace 3 year old. Won a maiden and a Nursery off "68" as a juvenile at 7 furlongs. Bits and pieces of turf form this year but he looks a 7f/8f horse to me on breeding, running style and trainer comments . Has not been out since June and all in all pretty Unfanciable. I Would be mildly surprised if he was placed.

EMERALD FIRE 16/1 - is a very quirky horse From Andrew Baldings. She is brilliant on her day but she is not the type to rely on . That said she races off "73" yet at the start of the year Baldings stable were saying "A rating of 77 is extremely attractive". However I Think this is "best fresh", She has won a 0-95 after a 3 month absence and almost won a 0-83 after a 7 month absence. When she won at Lingfield back in March it was after a 5 months absence and it's clear she is "best fresh ". Her 10 day absence is a negative. Her current form is not anywhere near good enough and if she wins this it will be a big shock.

THE FISIO 25/1 - Andrew Baldings Gelding was a Double winner on turf and once on sand as a 2 year old and ended the year rated "89" .He has had a difficult year. He hasn't come "Right" yet and you wonder whether he has trained on. He has dropped 18lbs in the ratings and could win if suddenly revitalised by a return to sand but that's a tall order. He is also ridden by a Claimer who has never raced under rules in England (He is 0 from 11 in Ireland) and has no knowledge of race riding in this country or this track. Has to be a Negative.

ONLY ONE LEGEND 8/1 - Kevin Ryan's Gelding is a Double C+D winner off "67" and "70" (For Tim Easterby) and isn't too badly treated off "72" today. This sand season we have seen him twice at 5 furlongs at Wolverhampton in which he was hampered and was returning from a break on his first start , and last time he ran Flat but found the trip too short and he doesn't like "slow" ground. He could improve greatly here now he is a lot fitter and back over this Course and Distance. He is exposed though and has a hard task, and his jockey describes him as "tricky to ride, he needs switching off, cover, a good tow and luck in running." He has a decent chance but to win he will need the plenty of luck.

TURN AROUND 25/1 - One of Barry Hills lesser lights. He is inexperienced and almost certainly was punished by the handicapper for winning a maiden as a 2 year old. Was given a Fascist style rating and looks too high in the handicap to win this.

TELEPATHIC 33/1 - All weather debut today for Alan Berry who is very easy to oppose as usual. He is Another that was punished for winning a juvenile maiden and given a draconian mark. He has failed to win since and has been dropped 18lbs in the weights. On Paper much of his form reads really well but he is not the type of horse you can rely on and He is also Unraced in 47 days and has no great record when Fresh. He also keeps missing the break and seems to lose his chance at the start. Has one of the worst draw in stall 1 and Needs to be given too many benefits of too many doubt.

GOODWOOD PRINCE 33/1 - The very fact he started 20/1 for a 0-70 last week here over C+D and tailed off last by 20 lengths is good enough reason to abandon him again today. Looks impossible to consider on that run.

PRIMA STELLA 8/1 - Her 5 wins have been in 2 Sellers, 2 Claimers and a Class E handicap , and all were on Fibresand. She is outclassed here in my opinion and seems to be switching stables very frequently at the moment. Cant have her at all and she looks one to avoid and woefully underpriced at 8/1.


Conclusion

SIR DESMOND has just run a high quality race here under identical conditions very recently. He is Fit, the Fastest on the Clock, not badly handicapped and a multiple winner experienced enough to handle weight and a big field. I think a reproduction of his last run will prove to strong for Just Fly and Compton Banker both who might be better over another furlong. Awarding and Only One Legend are the other main worries but SIR DESMOND would only need to run like he did 10 days ago to be the winner. COMPTON BANKER has been very well backed but I am staying with the selection.
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Postscripts

SANDOWN 2:55 William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Class A) (Listed Race) (4yo+,0-140) 2m?f (2m110y)

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Our Vic, 11/2 East Tycoon, 8/1 Aye Aye Popeye, Isio, Never, 10/1 Overstrand, Starzaan, 12/1 Monkerhostin, 16/1 Another Dude, Fortune Island, Yogi, 25/1 Mistanoora, 33/1 Cotopaxi, The Biker.

Selection - EAST TYCOON 11/2

Saver - OUR VIC 3/1

I am betting EAST TYCOON at 5/1 and I am saving on OLD VIC to break level on the race.

Statistics

Taken From various Media Publications. (Raceform Update, Weekender) + Weatherby's Guide. This race has recently been a race of "Shocks" and a record where the Favourites have a Poor record. I see this as pretty irrelevant now with increased prize money and far more astute punters and analysists. I also feel its important to ignore the record of certain stables in the race. The fact that Pipe has a good record ( 6 wins) would not sway me to one of his chances. Martin Pipe has also sent out the last 4 Beaten Favourites and in 3 of those races the stable "2nd string" beat the favourite. The Huge prize money dictates that each horse should be 100% ready to run to their best and You can assume several big stable horses are "laid out" for the
race. The Weatherby's guide also states that the vast majority of winners raced "Up with the pace" away from the hustle and bustle at the back of the field. The winner of this race invariably turns out to be very decent and often Champion Hurdle Class and a Male horse (11 of the last 12 winners).The main Stats of interest and significance In my opinion are below.

1) AGE

This is a race for horses aged 4, 5 and 6 years only. The last horse to win aged 7 or over was in 1998 and there have only been 5 "older" winners in the 33 year History of the race. The best record is with 5 year olds who have won 4 of the last 10 renewals. The 4 year olds have won 2 (Both in the last 3 years) and six year olds have won 3 races with 1 abandonment.

2) WEIGHT

All winners in the last 10 years carried less than 11st expect Land Afar in 1993 who carried 11st 2lbs. There have only been 6 of the past 33 winners that have carried more than 11st.Class does not count.5 of the last 9 winners carried 10st 2lbs or less and in the 2002 renewal the First 4 horse were all bottom weights. This is a very significant stat.

3) RECENT FORM

The last 12 winners all had ran before this race in their winning year.8 of the last 10 winners had finished at least "3rd" or better in a race in the year they won this race. In fact the last 10 winners all finished at least 5th or better in their latest start before lining up here as did 11 of the last 12 winners and the only
one that did not had Fallen in his Previous race.

4) EXPERIENCE

8 of the last 10 winners had experience in Big Field handicaps. 11 of the last 12 winners had experience in at least 1 big field handicap and 10 of them had finished in the first 4 places in a Handicap Hurdle.

CONCLUSION

My strongest feeling is that you should treat some of the Statistics in this race with LOTS of Scepticism. Take the "weight" statistic. The race has cut up and only 14 run and half the field carry over 11 stone in weight and from the half that do not you have the "scrubbers". I would not want to bet a Topweight in the race but I wouldn't religiously apply the 11st + rule by any means bearing in mind the frame of the race. I Would also treat the "Experience" stats with some scepticism as well. Can you really describe this race as a big field handicap with only 14 runners and several of them out of form ? I would be just a little wary. I have to take out NEVER as Topweight. The weight stat is vulnerable but He is 12lbs higher than the usual 11 stone limit and faces a long absences from the track and they can be passed over in my opinion. FORTUNE ISLAND, ANOTHER DUDE, AYE AYE POPEYE and THE BIKER ALL Come here either "Unraced" this season or in the sort of form that you do not associate with Past Winners of this race and I am happy to ignore their
chances today. The last 12 winners all had ran before this race in their winning year and that takes out ISIO who is also above the 11st border as well and is a 7 year old which is the 3rd stat he fails. ISIO Does go well "Fresh" but overall he fails too many trends. COTOPAXI is out as well as another 7 year old racing for the 1st time this year . I Want to rule out YOGI as well as a 7 year old that carries over 11st and the drying ground may hurt his chance as well. STARZAN is eliminated. This is the hardest race he has contested (although you can say the same for most of these) but he is a 4 year old carrying 11st 10lbs and if you fancy him off that weight you have to fancy OLD VIC More bearing in mind he is only giving him 2lbs and is a perfect age and only 25/1 to win the Champion Hurdle. I have to take out both MONKERHOSTIN and MISTANOORA for various reasons. MONKERHOSTIN carries 11st 8lbs which hasn't been done in years and is Weight that Fails the stats. He also has a career high mark and a Breathing problem and He looks quite vulnerable. MISTANOORA is not hard to eliminate with 11st 7lbs and easily beaten last time out off the same handicap mark as this race. Finally we are down to the Big 3 Runners that look to Dominate this race . They are OLD VIC (3/1) , EAST TYCOON (11/2) and OVERSTRAND.(10/1).

While OVERSTRAND is the perfect weight and an improving lightly raced sort he is taking a huge step up in class. He has yet to win in Class C yet this is Class A and when you consider Mary Reveley has won only 8 "Class A Races" in the last 5 years (from 117 attempts) And you consider that she takes on Martin Pipe and Jonjo O Neill who have both trained dozens of Class A winners more than Reveley in far less time You have to side with The Big two stables for this £29,000 handicap. OLD VIC of course Fails the weight statistic badly. He is Joint Top Weight carrying 11st 12lbs and the stats say that you need to carry Under 11st. I have spoken to a few people about this race and the general feeling is that this might be a year that the Stats Betray you. After all OLD VIC is considered to be a "Machine" and of the highest Class. You can also argue that the race is Far weaker in depth than most renewals and that will help OLD VIC a great deal. Finally you can argue that the Drying Ground will suit the Classier horses. In recent years when the Going was soft the case for "Lightweights" was far stronger than it is on ground that is drying fast. I respect the stats enough to make OLD VIC the "Saver " such is his reputation and such is the weakness of this years race. I Have to make EAST TYCOON the selection though .He has the right weight and the right profile and looks to have been laid out for the race. He comes from the same age group that have won 2 of the last 3 renewals. Technically he is found wanting in the stats that demand you were placed in the "1st 5" last time out but he was only 6th, was running on strongly looking the winner before stamina gave out over a trip that was too far for him. You have to bear in mind that Jonjo O Neill is capable of adopting very unorthodox training and running methods that disguise ability and intentions and he is a law unto himself and the last man to apply statistics to. He is improving fast and running in one of the weakest renewals of this race and he looks a sound bet to win, and I think 5/1 is a very fair price and with a saver on Old Vic at 3/1 it should be a race that we have covered.