Last Day.1 Strong bet.1 Saver.1 Demon to Slay in the Race. Personal Bets explain it all and I advise a decent bet and early price.Lets hope I am a WISE GUY (Sandown 5.15).
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The Last Message

Today will be the Last message that contains Racing Information until Saturday October 4th which is Cambridgeshire Day I will try and send one further E Mail tommorow if I get a chance. Then you will next hear from me on Cambridgeshire Day. There won't be any Ante Post advice on the Cambridgeshire this year but I may play on the day. In Today's message I have included some Statistics on the Cambridgeshire for any of you that want a starting point for having your own ante post bets, or those that are thinking of trying to Arb a few of the runners. I won't be taking a Laptop or a computer with me on Holiday but I will check into a few internet Cafe's during the break and will be able to pick up my e mail to guy@mathematician-betting.co.uk and should be able to reply to mails. I can't promise that it will be done quickly though and may take a couple of days. I won't be updating the 0871 line each day. There is also an Ayr Gold Cup piece today but it lacks a strong selection and I am not advising a bet in the race this year. The Last Couple of days have seen a lack of "Postscripts". I'm sorry for that but I have been very rushed. I know I said I would send you the Last Piece of the 2004 Blueprint but to be honest I have not had a chance of finishing it off and what I have done I am not 100% happy with and artistic pride is stopping me sending it rushed just because I am going away. I,m going to get it done today if I can and will possibly send it tonight or tommorow. I'm odds on to get it done but for for any reason if I Cant it will have to wait .

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Yesterday's Summary

Tuesday was a Profitable day courtesy of STALLONE. When I talk "Class" I do know what I am talking about and another thing I have learnt is that when the Racing Post "Criticise" a horse then you can expect a far better Starting Price and how that horse went off 4/1 was a Joke. I thought 2/1 was value. The Day returned an S.P. Profit of £225, but whilst ALAFZAR was unplaced, he was a very strong "eyecatcher". He has more trouble than anything in the race and was hampered 3 times. I think that he would not have beaten the winner but I am certain he would have been placed and pretty confident he would have been placed. That is a very well handicapped horse. That will win soon. When I'm away if you see ALAFZAR Run you want to bet the horse because I would certainly be Tipping the horse had I been here assuming the race was not ridiculously harder. I was very impressed with ALAFZAR yesterday.

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The Cambridgeshire Statistics

October 4th Newmarket

Akshar 10/1 Chivalry 10/1 Beneventa 12/1 Shot To Fame 12/1 Spuradich 14/1 Grand Passion 16/1 Jazz Messenger 16/1 Far Lane 20/1 Lady Bear 20/1 Macadamia 20/1 Able Baker Charlie 25/1 Bonecrusher 25/1 Camelot 25/1 Coat Of Honour 25/1 Famous Grouse 25/1 Millafonic 25/1 Nadour Al Bahr 25/1 Ocean Victory 25/1 Pablo 25/1 Persian Lightning 25/1 Tug Of Love 25/1 - others 33/1 or more


The Above market will look completely different on the day. It is too early to produce a selection as running plans are unknown, but the following Statistics should be very valuable as this is one of the best races in the year to use the stats on as the winner are very often the same type of horses.

1) In the last 12 years No Winner had ever previously run in a Listed or Group race
2) The Race is usually won by an improving horse that has won a few races that year
3) No recent winners dropped down in Class after several defeats. These types are to be avoided
4) 11 of the last 12 winners had won a handicap that year
5) Most winners had been laid out for the race. This usually means they had not started their season until June, or they had a 6 week break at some stage.
6) Do Not Bet Older Horses. Horses aged 5 and over do not have the potential required to win, bar I Cried For You (2001) and Rambo's Hall (1992)
7) Since 1976 Only Balthus (1987) failed to be "placed" in the First 4 places on his latest start.
8) Since 1976 every winner had raced between 1 and 8 times that year except Clifton Fox in 1996 whom had raced 9 times.
9) Horses at the top of the weights can win but in the last 17 years 11 horses have won with Less than 8st 9lbs
10) The betting is usually a good guide with few "shocks" with 10 of the last 12 winners starting at 14/1 and under. Look for runners at 16/1 and under.

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1 Personal Bet and a Saver . Have a strong bet today.

Sandown 5.15

(1) WISE GUY

£100 Win

Take any price at 3/1 or better.

+ Saver

(11) FOSFORITO

£10 Win

Take any price that is over 10/1 and that gets your stake back.


THE "EMOTIONAL "SAVER

I Resent having to do this, and it does not make much sense to me at all. I do not really fancy FOSFORITO , it is a very dark horse that has come from Spain *(I've no idea how good or bad that makes him) and then ran twice over hurdles. This is a 0-78 and normally I would write this horse off as having too much to do on his public achievements but I am having an "emotional" saver today thats probably because I have a Demon in my head .However This is a Gambling stable and there were signs last night, and this morning that very "unusual" betting patterns were surrounding this horse and it is clear that a few people were taking very short prices about this beast . He is 25/1 in the Racing Post yet some people are betting him at 10/1 and 9/1 today and that looks clear evidence of a horse that may be a danger and as I can not rate him I want to play a saver .

Now Normally I would ignore this. If You saved on every big priced gamble you would wrap yourselves up in knots but Today is different. Its my last day. I have been in Great form, but this is a gambling stable and in the last 2 years no stable has screwed me more than this one. In the last 2 years G L Moore has spoilt more BBOD's than any other stable and they have always been with the same type. Huge priced ,unrateable horses that have been backed. I remember one of my best ever bets was Fool on the Hill last September at 9/1 into 6/1 and I thought it was a certainty that day. The message that day was brilliant. The A.O.R's were superb. The Cash was down big time but G L Moore just beat me with a 20/1 shot called Porak who was impossible to fancy and he has now 3 times done this to me . I Think High Hope was one at 16/1, Wait for the Will may have been another. I cant remember, but this man has been a bugbear to me over the years and because I know that if this "mystery" gamble FOSFORITO beats WISE GUY then i,ll have Demons all through my Holiday and I wont be able to sleep thinking about why I did not rescue a £100 stake just for the sake of a Poxy Tenner saver after winning so much recently. I resent having to do this but it will at least help me sleep next week. If anything else beats WISE GUY then I dont feel bad as I have assesed them accurately and if i'm wrong it is my bad judgement, but I,m, not letting this Vile Menace stable screw me on a Spainsh 25/1 chance that has never run in England on the Flat when the Cash is Down. I vowed I would never let them do this to me again. FOSFORITO is a Saver if only so I can sleep at night .

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Today's Racing

Sandown 5.15 Betting Forecast: 7/2 Wise Guy, 11/2 Balkan Knight, Katiypour, 6/1 Pango, 8/1 Jubilee Treat, Tight Squeeze, 9/1 Traveller's Tale, 11/1 Lyrical Way, 14/1 Remembrance, 16/1 Haile Selassie, Mamore Gap, 25/1 Fosforito, Londoner, 33/1 Martin House.

I Think I have found the Swansong for my departure. Its Very aptly named as well if I may say so myself. I am very sweet on Marcus Tregoning's WISE GUY in the last at Sandown. This bet is about "Potential" and Delivering Promises that the horse has been making. To be fair to the horse, he has not done a thing wrong, he has just had circumstances conspire against him .Michael Stoute used to train him as a juvenile but you can never call Marcus Tregoning's a "downgrade" and he is ready to win this off a Handicap Mark of "78" , and Topweight in a 0-78.

His Season really started in August after a couple of bad races when they did the "handover" between his last run for Stoute and his "fact finding" first run for Treggoning. Goodwood in August was when I first noticed him. That was in a 0-80 over 9 furlongs and He started 25/1 but he missed the break before making up a lot of ground despite finding traffic problems. "Video" (Yes, it is one of the 2 magic words) Analysis impressed me. He was at the back of a huge Goodwood field, the leaders were several lengths clear and he had to bob and weave his way through in a manner not seen since Mohammed Ali in the Rumble in the Jungle. He was staying on that day very strongly cutting down rivals like Braveheart under hands and heels. Very eye-catching. He had the look of a very well handicapped horse that needed a step up to 10 furlongs. That performance was nothing special "on paper" but it was highly promising for a horse that had yet to fulfil his potential. It was noticed by a few people and that's why WISE GUY started 4/1 favourite on his next, (and latest) start at Ripon in a 0-85. Ripon's race was a lot tougher, and it was over 9 furlongs again which was just short of this horse's Optimum conditions. What happened at Ripon was always going to Kill WISE GUY'S Chance. There was a suicidal Crawl. There was no pace on in the early stages. The racing Post commented by saying "A nonsense of a race, run at an ordinary gallop and resulting in a scrum, with several horses getting poor runs" and WISE GUY was again a chief sufferer. Bearing in mind today is only a 0-78, at Ripon, in a 0-85 over a trip short of his best, after a crawl that made the race run like an 8 furlong race WISE GUY overcame all the circumstances that conspired to get him beat and Flew inside the last furlong mowing down the opposition (again visually impressive) and failing only to catch Swift Tango who had first run on him. The Handicapper rightly raised him for that run despite getting beaten and he was lucky to get away with only a 1lb rise and he now races off "78". Today's race is a Lot Easier.

He drops from a 0-85 to a 0-78. That does not sound a great leap but he is Topweight today and he only actually meets horses that are rated "75" and under yet at Ripon he had 7 of his 11 Rivals rated higher than that. The A.O.R's show an 8lbs drop in Grade (77.27 at Ripon and 69.53 today) but this is not the selling point I'm making to you. My Point is that the drop in class today, while helpful and welcome, is irrelevant. Its the "potential" and improvement this horse will now show on a stiff track at 10 furlongs and the Potentially lethal turn of foot he should be able to show today *(traffic permitting) in this class and under these circumstances. This horse is almost certain to run a Career best today and I fear he is improving so fast it is not impossible he improves enough to have a crack at the Cambridgeshire in 2 weeks time for which he holds an entry. This is not a cake walk. This is a tough and rough handicap on a track that can often turn a man into a boy, but Commeth the Hour, Commeth the man. Fret not that he is still a maiden. That just helps your price. WISE GUY will be a Man today and he won't be a maiden tonight. I believe he will win. Game On.


The Opposition.

Balkan Knight- The Big "unknown". Unexposed David Loder 3 year old who won a maiden last year and has not been seen since. I don't think he can be badly handicapped but a 422 day absence suggests a serious problem and racing here in a competitive handicap against older horse's race fit and in form make him very unattractive as a betting position.

KATIYPOUR- Won for David Barons on sand in June and then downgraded stables to Brook Saunders who paid £13,000 for him. His run in a conditions race next time out was so good that had to be an element of flattery about it, and those races are often misleading. He was lucky not to get punished by the handicapper for that but he still faces a career high mark today .He then went and Flopped in a poor 0-70 at Epsom and ran modestly at Windsor before he came out and won a 0-83 Class C handicap at Epsom. That runs gives him a massive chance in this. He did have the run of the race though but his last run at Epsom is quite credible as well if not as good as WISE Guy's last run. He has to be a danger to us. I can not find a clear reason why he should not go close today, and I see him as a danger, but I also see him as a horse without a millionth of the potential WISE GUY has and with not as much class. I rate him about 7lbs inferior and he might sneak it if the race is run to suit him but I do not believe he is as good a horse as the selection.

PANGO - I would not say PANGO could not win, he has just comfortably won at Epsom, but like so many here he is competing in a Class of race that is about 10lbs below the Class that WISE GUY runs in. I think there is a shortlist of horses that could stand in for WISE GUY and win this race should WISE GUY fail to get a trouble free run, or disappoint and PANGO certainly fits that bill. I am pretty sure he can win from his current handicap mark which makes him a danger, but I am not convinced he can do it against an improving Classy type that is unexposed. I think we have that horse today and I suspect PANGO remains vulnerable to unexposed improvers and I expect a "Bit" part for him today but not in the Winners Enclosure.

JUBILEE STREET- Geoff Wragg, Won last time, and an improving 3 year old has to make this horse a serious player who will have supporters. This is her 3rd handicap. She is a Filly who failed in a 0-70 handicap for Fillies only over today's Course and Distance in June. Her last start was when winning a 0-73 Fillies Handicap at Ripon in August. She was put up 4lbs in the weights for that and today she faces her hardest race to date, and meets Male horses for the first time in her short career. That Ripon race is questionable .The Racing Post state that it was a "nonsense of a race, run at a crawl". JUBILEE STREET made the running and dictated the pace. I've watched the Video and it was no more than a country amble and the horses behind her were pulling hard and clearly hated the stop start gallop and you really can't be sure how to judge her performance. She started 8/1 that day having opened at 7/1 so there was hardly a huge plunge on her in a 9 runner race and the 3rd was rated only 46 and that was only 2 lengths away in 3rd, so I think questioning that form is important and sensible. If you remember, at that stage Ripon was showing a massive track bias and the only horses that could win were those that ran from the front. Nothing coming from behind had a prayer at Ripon in August and JUBILEE STREET had Phillip Robinson dictating the pace shrewdly and it is very hard to see her having the same advantages. Bottom line, whilst you respect her stable and her lightly raced profile she will need to improve about 14lbs to beat WISE GUY and I do not think she can do that.


TIGHT SQUEEZE - Well she has got 10f form, fast ground form and Class D form but this is a career high mark and she is thoroughly exposed and offers nothing in the vicinity of "Potential" or "Star appeal". She's just won the same Beverley race in August that she won in 2002 but that, and most of her races are in lower class than this race and she basically looks in the handicappers grip and has not got the raw class to cope with an improving horse like ours.

TRAVELLERS TALE - Ended his 2 year old year rated 71, with a Class D win to his credit and overall a positive year even if his form was slightly lower than the Class of this race. This year his 2 runs have been fine, even promising but this is a sharp rise in Class and he has not proven yet that he can cope with it. The "benefit of any doubt" would come from the fact that he is trained by a "job" trainer in Peter Harris who is very capable of getting horses to win at prices like he will be, and in the 124 days he has had off the track, rather than see that as a "negative" I worry about what he has been up to at home and how good he might improve to be. I don't fancy him at all to beat WISE GUY, but there is more than the usual whiff of "Unknown" and "unrateable" about him and it is always best to know your dangers.

LYRICAL WAY - Took him 17 races to win and that was in a far lower class. On Both times that he has run in Class D Company he has been beaten up. I see him as having No Class at all in comparison to Wise Guy and he can't win for me.

REMEMBERANCE - Looked a good prospect 3 runs ago but then failed twice and has not been seen since July. He may have been Jarred up on fast ground as his trainer stated that when he ran his best race he did not like the fast ground and ideally wants some cut in the ground. The Trip will improve him but this may be too fast, too hard and he mat not be fit enough. His stable are also out of form.

HAILE SELASSIE - Far harder than the race he won at Windsor in June, but well beaten 3 times since including in 0-65 company. It's only the 47 day absence and the fact that he is trained by a decent stable tempts me to put him on the "well it would not shock me if he won but ......" list

MAMORE GAP - He should not be good enough and he is entered in a Claimer this week which hardly inspires confidence. That said I'm not sure the Racing Post are safe in assuming he has "gone off the boil" and he has form around many of these and on his best form, and that's not impossible that he shows it , he has a reasonably good chance. I would say he is a "Lively outsider" and perhaps a big price at 20/1 but not good enough for a saver.

FOSFORITO - Gone from Spanish racing to Jumps and now changed stables. No Sign of form. Fascinating runner. My Bogey stable. See Personal bets.

LONDONER - The horse has been thrashed lately and like his stable is bang out of form.

MARTIN HOUSE. - Hammered in his last 3 starts and no sign of being in form. David Blaine has an easier task.


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AYR GOLD CUP

Fire Up The Band 8/1Frizzante 8/1Hit s Only Money 9/1 Seel Of Approval 10/1 Hidden Dragon 14/1 Royal Millenium 16/1 Grizedale 20/1 Fantasy Believer 20/1 Halmahera 20/1 Dazzling Bay 25/1 Onlytime Well Tell 25/1 Quito 25/1 The Tatling 25/1 Vanderlin 25/1 Artie 33/1 Bandit Queen 33/1 Bond Becks 33/1 Camp Commander 33/1 Corridor Creeper 33/1 Forever Times 33/1 Funfair Wane 33/1 Golden Dixie 33/1 Good Girl 33/1 Matty Turn 33/1 Mutawaqed 33/1 Najeebon 33/1 Orientor 33/1 Simianna 33/1

Selection - No Bet

I have looked at all of the runners and done some serious "stat" work. There have been some strong gambles in recent days. FRIZZANTE has been well backed but this does not look an Ayr Gold Cup winner to me and is underraced this year and I think she has a tall order. Another "steamer" has followed since the news broke that Kieran Fallon was riding HIT'S ONLY MONEY ahead of the stablemate HIDDEN DRAGON . Well Statistically Thats a strange decision. Paul Blockley clearly stated yesterday that "Both horses are in excellent shape and I have a soft spot for Hidden Dragon, but Hit's Only Money is a better horse". The trainer rates HIT'S OUR MONEY as the better horse but Statistically he just is not as solid as his "inferior" stablemate and no horse has won this race in the last 18 years with an absence of more than 8 weeks and he has a 133 day absence to overcome. I'm just not sold on his chance at all. I'm confidently against FANTASY BELIEVER and DAZZLING BAY. The "Portland" runners can be ignored and that's helpful in ruling out HALMERHERA, QUITO and several more of the outsiders. SEEL OF APPROVAL is statistically perfect and a live runner but he is plenty short enough now in the market when you consider the Draw has yet to be considered. FIRE UP THE BAND has a chance but when the weights go up by 3lbs as they should he will have to defy a massive weight. GRIZEDALE is interesting but has an absence to overcome and issues over the trip. I also really like ROYAL MILENNIUM from the "bang in form" Mick Channon stable.

In all Honesty I am a little disappointed that I have not got a horse that I am Confident enough about to advise a strong bet. I can not do a message on Thursday but I really do need to have the advantage of looking at the draw. The Ground could also be an issue. I have spent 4 hours on the race and It now feels to me as If I am "supposed" to give a strong opinion as I said I would , and that's when I do not really fancy a horse. Staking a bet now would just be a typical "tipster" thing to do and I am not going to advise a bet just because I said I would. This is a serious game and I need to treat it with more respect than I did when nonchalantly saying I would have a bet without knowing the draw or the ground. Shame on me. You can consider myself Scolded.

Rather than recommend a bet, I would make the Following Points.

1) Whatever I say below, if the horses are drawn between Stalls 10 and 19 you should just put a line straight through the Selection.
2) I Like Royal Millenium at 14/1 as the "Value" before the draw is known
3) My Shortlist in order of strength would be Royal Millenium, Hidden Dragon, Fire Up The Band, Seel of Approval and Grizedale
4) The Natural "Arb" is Grizedale. If you get 25/1 for this you will have a free bet come the day of the race.
5) The Best Drawn of my "Shortlist" should be considered the most likely winner.
6) If I was laying I would Lay the Front two , Hits our Money and Frizzante at 8/1 and 7/1 as that is Less than a 7/2 chance and that's very poor value.

No Recommendation.