Best Bet of the Day


Beverley 4.00 (2) KING REVO

0.8 Pts Win

Beverley 4.00 (5) ZERO TOLERANCE

0.2 Pts Saver


Have the Saver. Its a Split Stake bet. For every £10 you have its £8 Win and £2 Win Saver. Ladbrokes are 10/1, its 11/2 Paddy Power ,Bet365 and there are plenty of 8.1 and 9/1 available. My Minimum price is 7/1. 1 Point staked.

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Today's Racing

Most of the races today , especially at Goodwood can only be semi-sorted out . I Feel I can only sort out the 4.00 at beverley with any confidence in providing a big priced oppurtunity and thats where the Single Race View (S.R.V) is below in the message. I Think that race offers oppurtunities.


In terms of the rest of the days action. Goodwood is a place that forces you to be reliant on Luck. If You bet there you are accepting a Moral obligation not to Moan and get upset if your horse gets murdered in running. That said If You keep stakes small you can still enjoy the meeting. I Really like FINISHED ARTICLE in the 2.40. I,ve replayed the 2002 renewal on Video this morning and he was very unlucky to only finish 4th. He smatters of a horse laid out for the race. He loves the track and can't always be unlucky. I also like Thihn and Marlo if it rains but it is a race where your fate is determined by luck. If I have a bet it will be an Interest bet on Finished Article at £60 or thereabouts. In the 3.15 I like TUG OF LOVE. I Dont think he was "off" last time as Many Newmarket scribes were screaming his name yet he drifted like a Bank of Fog early. Video analysis left me in no doubt he is a Class act and 7/2 is a fair price. I have not backed him as I have not got time to fight for the 7/2 this morning. I fear NUIT SOMBRE. I Cant see much later although in the 4.55 BINNION BAY would definately have won last time without being hampered and He holds the race in his hands in the maiden at 4.55. At Beverley I would watch the ground very carefully . In the 2.55 the obvious each way bet is Ground Zero but Tim Easterby has stated that "He wants Fast Ground " so be carefull if the heavens open. More so with TOUGH LOVE in the 3.30 race which has been a heavily punted favourite from 5/2 into 6/4. He has never ran on soft ground and Easterby is on record as saying " He does not do a Tap on soft ground" so be careful if it rains. All in all an interesting days betting but the 4.00pm at Beverley stands out like a beacon of light on a hard day.



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Beverley 4.00

Betting Forecast: 9/4 Bally Hall, 5/1 Albany, 13/2 Bahlino, 8/1 Sir Night, Zero Tolerance, 12/1 North Landing, 14/1 King Revo, Mount Hillaby, 16/1 Emerging Star, Parknasilla, 20/1 Mellino, Toro Bravo, 25/1 Liam's Story.


THE NO-HOPERS

MOUNT HILLABY is a filly that downgraded stables over the winter. She has not yet come to hand this season and may not ever be as good as she promised to be. She was beaten far too far on her 2 starts this year to be of serious interest as her 20/1 + Price suggests. EMERGING STAR is a maiden still and flopped last time. He is a 25/1 chance and has recently joined a new stable and has never ran in this Class before. PARKNASILLA is a maiden and has run only 3 races. He has a 192 day absence to overcome and the fact he started 50/1 for a Claiming maiden last time suggests he may not be up to this class. MELLINO is a maiden Filly who has never been in this class and won't want any rain. TORO BRAVO can't be seriously fancied at 40/1 his current price on the exchanges and is Held by ALBANY anyway. He is a small horse and Top Weight won't help him. That said, he is the best of the "rags" in my opinion and the only horse amongst them that would not shock me if winning. His stable has not had a winner in 5 months though. LIAM'S STORY is simply outclassed.


THE STRONG NEGATIVES

BAHLINO is a Willie Jarvis runner having his 5th start. This race has been won before by less experienced runners but BAHLINO'S Profile does not match up. His 3 "Handicapping" runs saw him do nothing. I can forgive him for that as that surely is the point, but I can't forgive him, or fancy him on his last start, his 4th in all. Given a Handicap Mark of "64" he ran in only a CLASS G maiden handicap, obviously containing horses that had never won a race before and he was 2nd , beaten and sandwiched between 2 horses that had never won a race in a combined 9 seasons. The winner was taking his first race on his 29th career start and has been well beaten since, and the 3rd horse had a career record of 0 from 22 . They were only rated "55" and "45" and the A.O.R.'s of the entire field was 56.26. Today he faces Class D ( a rise of 3 Classes) and Far better opposition. He is going to have top improve bucket loads to get placed here never mind win. Improve he will, and he will appreciate his own age group but this is far too strong a leap in Class to fancy him. His stable have only had one winner this year ( Flownaway) and that was almost 2 months ago.

SIR ALBERT can't win this from "55" in my opinion. He won a Seller last time. The Highest rated animal that day was only rated "60" and Gave SIR NIGHT 7lbs in weight. In fact Selling races are all he has ever won in . The A.O.R.'s of his Selling Victims were only 51.33 and I think he may struggle today against A.O.R.'s of 69.08 . He is quirky, and not one to trust implicitly. In Class D races he is 0 from 5 and also 0 from 5 in Class E as well. He simply has bitten off far more than he can chew and can't win for me notwithstanding his fitness and his being in form.


THE "UNKNOWN ELEMENTS"

BALLY HALL is a Gerard Butler horse going up in Class. He won a Bad Race off "52" against horses with A.O.R.'s of 55.58. Today he has gone up 10lbs to "62" and faces rivals with A.O.R.'s of 68.50. That is a tall order. He is simply underpriced due to him being a Butler horse. He has a chance as he will improve but he really needs to improve a lot to compete here and at 5/2 He is poor value. If the Ground turns soft there may be a further problem as Butler states Firm ground suits the horse but in all honesty I would take that with a pinch of salt. Poor value though.

NORTH LANDING from Mark Johnston's was winnerless from 4 starts as a juvenile gradually stepping up in trip. Handicapped at "76" he ran badly in his last start and started this year rated "68". We know we can not underestimate him being from this stable, and so well bred, but all we can do is judge him on his only start this year in Maiden Handicap Company. He had been gelded and off for 6 months so certain to have needed the run and his 5 lengths 6th to Shin Paradise was not that bad an effort off topweight. He is a Dark Horse , He is very hard to judge, but he faces horses with A.O.R.'s today of 68.25 and his last race was only 55.88. It is very possible, but unlikely that He wins especially with the market showing at 16/1.

THE STRONG FANCIES

ALBANY is a Linda Ramsden horse bred for middle distances that achieved 2 placed efforts as a juvenile from 7 starts over inadequate trips. He started his 3 year old season rated "73" when 7th at Ripon (KING REVO 3rd). That was a Better race than this ( A.O.R'S 78.16 v Today's 67.66) and a creditable effort after 5 months absence. ALBANY Then went to Pontefract for a 0-85 and again that was a Far better race than this ( A.O.R.'S 77.18)
And ran a very eye catching race. He was badly sandwiched at the bend and forced into last place before making that ground up and running well inside the last 2 furlongs taking 5th place as one of the best finishers. He Holds TORO BRAVO on that run and looks a winner soon. He takes a drop in A.O.R. From 78.16 and 77.18 to only 67.66 and that will be a big help. He will be a lot fitter and its worth remembering that whilst he was only beaten a couple of lengths in his last race 9 of his 12 opponents that day are rated better than anything in this race. Excellent chance but ideally need another 2 furlongs and the stable form worries me a little.

ZERO TOLERANCE is a decently bred Nashwan colt in the shrewd hands of David Barons. One run last year over an inadequate distance and this year he ran twice on the sand. He was runner up to Saponi (who we now know has died but did win a handicap by 5 lengths on his next start). In fact that day ZERO TOLERANCE was backed from 8/1 to 3/1 and that was being a 3 year old in January against older horses. Creditably he was only beaten a Head. He then stayed at Southwell's mile and won in February at odds on in a maiden. The form was Crap but he could do no more than win. His First real test came on Grass in May racing in Barolo's 10k Class D Handicap against older horses. He ran OK in 9th place beaten 7 lengths, and whilst it could be said that you may have liked to see more improvement up to 10 furlongs, that was against horses with A.O.R.'s of 74.83 and Older horses as well and he must not be too harshly judged on that run. He was also very inexperienced and without a run in 3 months. Money came for him last night on the exchanges and his chance is a leading one.

KING REVO has a massive chance at very generous Odds. The Haslam horses have been quiet but their lack of runs on sand this year was a deliberate policy and the stable report their horses as working very well and a barrage of winners is expected soon. Unusually for the trainer KING REVO Won as a juvenile flooring an odds on favourite in August at Redcar on soft ground. He was given a mark of "75" and ran with credit in the rest of his juvenile campaign without winning. This year he has run 3 times. He was beaten a Short -head in a 0-95 at Lingfield on sand (A.O.R. 71.88) By a Butler Hot-pot who then went on to win in Better Class, and the 3rd almost won twice in better class afterwards as well. On KING REVO'S Penultimate run he was 3rd in a 0-85 again at Lingfield. The Winner has won 3 times since ( Humoresque) and was last seen in Sundays Group 1 race in France so being beaten by that is no shame. The Runner up ( Let me try again) then went on and won a maiden and then a handicap easily before only being beaten half a length in the Lingfield Derby Trial !! There was NO Shame coming 3rd to that horse. Today's race is easier. Last Time KING REVO Went to Ripon and I know he was not fancied. In fact I laid him that day after confirming that fact . The stable said he had a small chance but no more and that he was only 80% straight after a 3 months absence and dropping back to a Mile. KING REVO Ran well beat only 2 lengths in 5th place given an easy time inside the final furlong. The A.O.R. Of that race was a massive 77.91 and Today KING REVO Only faces horses with A.O.R.'s of 67.41 and he was not even fit on his last run. The Form looks Rock Solid. The Winner placed in a 20k Handicap, the runner up almost placed in a 16k race. The 3rd came out and won 5 lengths, the 6th came out and won a handicap by 4 lengths and the 9th came out and won a handicap by 5 lengths as well. KING REVO has everything in his favour today (aside from stall 1). He is a useful-looking, scopey gelding and Loves Soft Ground. He is fancied. He is overpriced and on form he is a rock solid selection and goes forward to the grand draw of the racing post pricing mistake of the year.

Conclusion

Linda Ramsdens form, and the price of ALBANY ( whom I rate 3rd/4th best here with BALLY HALL ) Troubles me and at 5/1 I feel He may be on the short side and wants 12 furlongs. ZERO TOLERANCE and KING REVO are the horses to be on. ZERO TOLERANCE is in essence also hard to judge but he has powerfull strengths and has a crucial high draw. Daryll Holland looks an eye catching booking and vitally the money is down. I want him on my side. KING REVO is the worst Drawn horse in the race, but at the weights simply the best horse in the race and unbelievable value at 12/1 from the Haslam yard. Unreliable as their "information" is, this has not come from them, it is from me, and I have rung up and checked the plans out. The Stable are backing him, I have been asked to bet the horse for Patrick. The Draw does not worry him as much as me. He feels it will be a help in able to settle the horse so I am expecting him to miss the break and tuck in. Patrick thinks the extended trip ( He will stay no problem) will be ideal to come through and win baring traffic issues which I have to assume . I feel the 12/1 compensates for any Traffic worries. Haslam thinks he has placed the horse badly and likes him a great deal and agrees about the dangers. He ssays the horse is not ungenuine at all and the horse is trying his best today and serioulsy fancied. He would be a Maximum at 12/1 from a High Draw but from the worst Draw naturally I have to adjust the stake. He may not win, but he is the best horse in the race for me and the stable are very sweet on his chance and he and ZERO TOLERANCE are the BBOD.
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