Good Morning Everybody. I'm reluctantly informing you that this message is "probably" going to lose you money today. It is one of those Days that we are probably going to take a Hit. I'm staking it to protect us from as much Colateral damage and friendly fire as possible, but If I am right it has the potential to make it into the "Top 5 " all time messages if results go our way. There are 3 "Personal" Bets and they are at the bottom of the message.


I'm going to do a message Tommorow (Yarmouth) as Heavy Rain threatens and thats my edge as opposed to the Polytrack on Thursday. There will now be no message on Thursday.


************************************
************************************

Yesterday's Summary

DMITRI was 2nd yesterday at 8/1. I Did not see the race but judging from the commentary line and the "in running" betting he made the running, kicked on, looked like winning (He was 1-2"on" in running at one stage) and then BLUE TROJAN came and nailed him. They were the two I fancied in the race and I have the race spot on. Whether I deserve praise and sympathy for being almost spot on, or criticism and ridicule for not coming away with a profit especially with MISTRAL SKY Winning at 6/1 all depends on your aspirations as members and generosity of spirit. I'm quite happy with my form. I know sometimes you would love me to give you a short priced "certainty" you can lump on but this service is not about that. It is not an ego thing, I do not deliberately target longer priced horses but all I know is that when I go for short priced horses it psychologically affects me and takes me out of control and into places I don't want to be and where I don't win money. I Know the profit can be slow and in spurts, but I'm betting everything myself and although the "labels" of bets have chopped and changed and even this year I was still messing about with BBOD's and "Personal bets" and it has not always been clear, it is still a good year to be winning close to £7000 at S.P. Thats not easy to do and if you have half a brain , a few quid in the Hod and some patience and understanding then your pretty much doing the right thing by joining. If you're not in possession of those qualities then there are almost 500 other services who believe me would love your custom and give you some bankers at 4/5. I can't do that I'm afraid.

Personal Bets At the end of the message today in the Quarrantine Zone away from the Demons.

************************************
************************************
Today's Analysis

NOTTINGHAM


Nottingham12:20

Betting Forecast: 4/5 Border Castle, 6/1 Worcester Lodge, 7/1 Menai Straights, 8/1 Argentum, 10/1 Show No Fear, 14/1 Baawrah, Step Perfect, 20/1 Jolizero, 33/1 Royal Nite Owl, 100/1 Salut Saint Cloud.

Information Bet = Border Castle

Here am I pontificating about not Tipping short prices and the first strike of the day is Odds on. I have had it from my Newmarket Man who redeemed himself the other day with Ouija Board. Hes apologised for the price but tells me he is very confident it will win. This is owned by the Queen and has had two promising starts and bred for fast ground, and I can not tell you much more than this. What remote chance there was of me making it a bet ended when the Racing Post changed their "evens" quote to 4/5 yesterday afternoon. When you have a Newmarket man telling you it will win and you look and see runners from the North, South East and West against it you have to ask yourself what he could know about the opposition. It is not for me especially in October but like all his business it's fancied, expected to win and doing its best.


++++++++++

I have to stay away from the 2 year olds at the moment as they are just too unpredictable and anything decent is either a short price or well hidden.

In the Nottingham 2.30 I Thought ATLANTIC ACE had a fair chance on his profile.
Betting Forecast: 11/4 Janayen, 7/2 Camille Pissarro, Impeller, 9/2 Tagula Blue, 7/1 Atlantic Ace, Gem Bien.

Yes he is known as a Goodwood specialist but he has many factors in his favour. a)Stable in form b) Won 3 times in a small field c) Won 4 times at this time of year d) Goes well fresh e) Won 3 times in Class C when only one of his rivals have ever won a Class C race before f) Won off a 5lbs higher mark . All that may not add up to Victory but that's a fair amount in his favour and as the outsider of 6 and 7/1 he has fair claims to be called Value.

+++++++++++

The Seller at 3.40 looks impossible but watch for a market move on RARE COINCIDENCE at 14/1. He was the subject of a gamble that looked "Tipster inspired" 3 days ago and missed the break by 15 lengths over 7f before running on at the death to finish 4th. This step up to a mile may help him and he will be very fit although I only mention him for his price and his gamble last time out as he has little else to recommend him.

+++++++++++

Nottingham 4.15

Betting Forecast: 9/2 Triplemoon, 11/2 Tass Heel, 7/1 Diamonds Will Do, Little Tobias, 15/2 Tilla, 10/1 Allez Mousson, 12/1 Saintly Thoughts, Spa Lane, 14/1 Court Alliance, Duc's Dream, 16/1 Bucks, Lady Laureate, Royal Castle, 20/1 E Minor, Worlaby Dale, 25/1 Colourful Lady, 50/1 Ersaal, 66/1 Zigali.

I like the stayers races but the 4.15 is too hard. I have maximum respect for Triplemoon but history has shown that you want a light weight in this race and ideally a fast improving 3 year old. Heir To Be was a serious bet in this race last year on Heavy Ground but there is nothing with the strength that she had last year. Staying "Lightweight and young" introduces you to TILLA who won a 0-60 Handicap at Pontefract last time. Watching the video I was quite impressed and there looked no fluke about it. The big danger is the fact that she steps up to 2 miles for the first time and she is not sure to stay but Hughie Morrison (Stable in form) said at the start of the year that she was a "Big backward filly who if going the right way could be decent" and she is looking like she has started to reward his patience and he has not made the mistake of over-racing her. I think this trip is within her compass and she is not a bad shout at 15/2 as the runner that statistically comes out ahead of the rest of the field. I think she is very well handicapped and the sign that Morrison agrees is possibly there as he has entered her at Lingfield on Thursday. Obviously Dangers lurk from everywhere in such a competitive race and she is absolutely no good thing but there is a lot to like about her and TILLA is the pick.

++++++++++++++


REDCAR

They are saying Redcar could be "Soft" in places after watering and rain but it is officially "good" ground , "good to soft" in places and potential spells of rain later on. Great card from a viewing perspective but its the sort of card that offers great rewards if you are right, but does not give you too many chances to be right. Again I'm keen to leave out the Juvenile races and stay with the more predictable sorts but that said GREAT FOX (12.40) could well be value in the first. They say never to "follow the crowd" and the horse will be opposed by many after swerving left on both starts recently and he could drift out to a value price. He is easily the best horse in the race and in this class he might even win if he does it again. I Think if he gets to 6/4 I will have to have something on him as I think he will win.


Redcar 1.10

Betting Forecast: 9/4 Dancing Phantom, 7/2 Compton Emerald, 6/1 Olivia Rose, 10/1 Melograno, 12/1 Reno, 14/1 Eight, 16/1 Grand Lass, 20/1 Erupt, Kingsdon, Nimbus Twothousand, Scurra, Washington Pink, 25/1 Marshal Bond, 33/1 North Landing, Ultra Marine, 50/1 Countess Elton.

On his last run DANCING PHANTOM looks a certainty here having just run 2nd in a 0-95 handicap and now heads the "Official ratings" off "76" in a Claimer. This is a big drop in class. He is said to want softer ground and this should be fine today. On that run then 9/4 looks a great price, but there are many niggling doubts about him. He is best "fresh" and last time out was after an absence of 3 months and turned out a couple of weeks later there must be a chance he could "Bounce" and fail to show that form. There is also a chance he was very much flattered in that 0-95. He set a fast pace and the result was a shock and it may not have been truly run. He is also an 8 year old that has not won in 4 years and trained by a man who has only started training this year and who has yet to train a winner from only 20 runners. He has also not run at anything like this trip since 1999 and there are proper question marks about him. COMPTOM EMERALD just has not impressed this year and as a 3 year old filly looks to have her work cut out.
You really want older horses in most of these claimers and this Filly has spent all her life racing against the same age group except for a drubbing she took at Pontefract. Stepped up to 11f at Goodwood last time she made a tremendous amount of ground up having been a long way behind. That was only a modest race though like this and they may have gone off too fast in front and she will find it harder against older and more experienced horses today. The switch to Redcar from Goodwood is unlikely to help in my opinion as it is a faster 11f and the filly looked like she needed further last time and I think that is because she is slow. She also has to beat the ground and Gerard Butler said last autumn that soft ground was against her. Bearing in mind both the above horses "Flaws" I would prefer to risk DANCING PHANTOM than COMPTOM EMERALD and she is underpriced because "Butler" trains her. OLIVIA ROSE is quite nicely treated compared to some at these weights but she is a frustrating sort. She is modest but often runs above herself but the fact remains that she is now trained by a small stable, and is 0 from 17 this year and has been on the go since February. I would not rule her out but her 4th in a 0-59 handicap last time won't win this and she is not a horse you want the rent money on.

Back to the 3 year olds and Ralph Beckett's MELOGRANO is interesting. Beckett recently said that "He is on the right handicap mark and he will win soon and he will do well with give in the ground. He was handicapped to the hilt after his 3rd run as a 2-year old but the assessor has been good to him and we will find a race for him when the rains come as he is working better than ever ". Thats quite an interesting statement made just 7 weeks ago and MELOGRAMO has ran only once since when a 25/1 chance in a 0-75 at Epsom coming only 10th of 14. I have watched the video and there was not much promise there to be honest but he was not given a hard race and it entirely possible that he was not "Off" that day or did not stay the trip. I think with him you can make a case for him but it would be a far stronger case with a market move and I see him as "Interesting" but Full of holes and you would need those Holes to be plugged with something positive like a market move. I certainly prefer him to RENO who is a similar price. EIGHT has a chance with Jamie Spencer but really has a tough task at the weights and if there is a shock then it could be the Mud Loving ULTRA MARINE.

Conclusion= DANCING PHANTOM is a certainty if doing what he did last time and he is the best horse in this race by some way and I think he is the likely winner. However he could easily "bounce" or not reproduce that run and the dangers like COMPTON EMERALD will be on the premises to stake a claim should that happen. I would be more interested in MELOGRANO (Or possibly Ultra Marine) should the market speak in their favour as likely value alternatives but whatever happened I would make sure that I did not leave the race losing if DANCING PHANTOM won. That would be criminal and whether you bet him as the main selection or just as a "saver" it does make sense to protect yourself as he is the best horse.


++++++++++++++

Redcar 1.45

Betting Forecast: 6/1 Distant Country, 13/2 Uhoomagoo, 8/1 Creskeld, Marshman, 9/1 Marshallspark, Polar Kingdom, 10/1 San Antonio, 11/1 King Harson, 12/1 Romany Nights, 14/1 Eastern Hope, Majestic Times, Thihn, 16/1 Compton Emperor, Zilch, 20/1 Safranine, 25/1 Barzak.

Selection = Marshman + Saver on Zilch

When the Racing Post verdict starts with "An absorbing handicap with several interesting possibilities" that is usually professional Code for "don't touch with a barge pole" and I certainly do not aim to get bogged down in Collateral form but I strongly fancy MARSHMAN here from Mark Tompkins stable. I confess I backed this on Saturday at 14/1 without it getting a mention in the message that day as I came across it very late and read some remarks that Tompkins made about the horse recently. Tompkins stated that "MARSHMAN is desperate for soft ground and has not had ideal conditions all year. He is a high class handicapper and has a lot of ability. He is capable of winning a Bunbury Cup over 7f if the ground is soft. I said at the start of the year that winning a decent handicap would be like shelling peas give soft ground. Follow him when we get some rain." Well on Saturday that was a 0-94 Handicap with A.O.R's of 82.69 and this is only a 0-83 with A.O.R's of only 76.46 so it is an easier race. You can also argue that the 7lbs claim his jockey takes off can only help him. He would be the one runner that stands out to me. What you have is a superb profile of a horse in top form racing under optimum conditions dropping in class and the beauty of being the probably the fittest horse in the race. That is quite a bit on your side at 8/1. If you want to point to problem areas, I suppose you would say Tompkins can be unreliable and Talk up his horses. You could say that his quick reappearance does not automatically mean he will reproduce that form. You can also argue that the jockey Saleem Golam is a negative rather than a positive. His first 2 years saw a 0-53 record and this, his 3rd year he is 3 from 51 and he has not ridden MARSHMAN before in a race. The Final problems like in the fact he has plenty of weight and faces a very competitive field. Plenty to like and dislike about him but at 8/1 I put him as a horse with excellent chances. I am also drawn to the 16/1 (and likely to be bigger) about ZILCH. I Went with Michael Bell yesterday and this Bell horse wants soft ground and runs very well fresh and he could easily lower a few colours here as well.


++++++++++++++

Redcar 2.20

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Reap, 11/2 Welsh Wind, 7/1 Ellen Mooney, St Petersburg, 10/1 Parting Shot, 12/1 Hills Of Gold, Top Dirham, 14/1 Jordans Elect, Market Avenue, Star Of Normandie, 16/1 Latalomne, 20/1 Quintoto, Supreme Salutation, 25/1 Ember Days, The Wizard Mul, 40/1 Forzacurity.

Vile and Bilious race but it is Mark Tompkins again with ST PETERSBURG for me. I won't dwell here. I'm not sure how he will get on as a 3 year old in this race but the ground has come right for him and I'm unimpressed by the market rivals. He won a 0-89 at Lingfield in early September and after another couple of runs their without cutting much ice He ran well at Southwell last time in a 0-85 and I was impressed on video with his 3rd place. He was closing down the front 2 rapidly up Southwell's straight and when you consider his wide draw and the fact that he raced 8 wide around the bend it was a far better run than it looked. This is another horse with a tendency for soft ground and Tompkins has stated he is "desperate" to run him on turf. He steps up to a mile but he looked as if he needs that now on video at Southwell and he was 2nd over a mile as a 2 year old so it is hardly stretching the imagination that he may be suited to this trip. He is the pick in another open race.


++++++++++++++

Redcar 3.30

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Crozon, 11/2 Aoninch, 13/2 Opening Ceremony, 10/1 Bond Millennium, Cyclonic Storm, Donna's Double, Melodian, Penny Pie, 14/1 Colway Ritz, Indian Dream, 20/1 Celtic Sapphire, Diamond Mick, 25/1 Known Maneuver, 33/1 Double Ransom, Rutland Chantry, Tara's Flame, 100/1 Kenny the Truth.

Selection = Donna's Double + The danger is Opening Ceremony

I Have to side with an old friend today and that is DONNA'S DOUBLE. This was the horse that I advised a £200 win on at Redcar the other day but he was a non runner. I have been watching him a while. Just 3 starts ago back in October he was only beaten 2 lengths in a 0-79 here and finished behind Windy Brittain which has come out and won. He then went to York and it was Mission Impossible from his draw. I was then ready for some hard cash at Redcar but he pulled out when I thought he was a marvellous bet and one of the bets of the year and I still can't believe he did not run. I wanted to oppose him last time out I hated his chance at Pontefract as the course did not suit front runners and he was beaten. Today, in Mind Boggling 0-65 Classified stakes company and a Double Figure price I have to bet him. DONNA'S DOUBLE is both an 8 year old and is a "systemites" horse as he needs a recent race. He needs this time of year and although he is best on fast ground, he has won on soft ground before and it is only advertised as "good". This is a harder race than the one I fancied him in but it is still within his ability and I certainly could not bet the once raced Gosden favourite CROZON or any of the other market rivals. He is the selection to modest stakes. OPENING CEREMONY Comes out well on my numbers and is the danger.


************************************
************************************

Personal Bets /Lay of the Day

Serious complications with the bets today and hard judgements. I Like too many horses in too many races that are particularly diffcult. I,m looking to avoid a big staking loss. I,m looking to avoid a Whitewash with something like 0 from 6 and I do not want to break the sensible pattern of staking modestly and getting value. I Think today If I am "right" , then it could be worth a rare multiple bet. If I am wrong, it could be a disaster with an approach that bets everything I like. The Staking has made me feel like a Lion who needs a Splinter taken out of his Paw. I'm hoping the Multiple bet will do this.


A Total of £79 Staked on the Day.Eaasily a day I could get wrong from a staking perspective but if I am right the rewards are there.


Bet 1

Redcar 2.20

(7) St Petersburg £25 Win

Take any 7/1

+++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++

Bet 2

This has to be a Multiple bet . I can not stake much here, it has to be each way but at the prices the potential returns are astronomical. I Can not segregate any One of these as a stand out "best bet " to be honest and like yesterday, the potential to have a big priced winner yet still pick the wrong one is very strong. Therefore I think a Multiple bet makes sense. We rarely have them. We should have more. Take prices on as many of these as you can and the prices in brackets are simply "Guide" prices about what to expect . My "gut" feeling is that Dona's Double and Marshman are the "weaker" legs and that Tilla and St Petersburg are the stronger. I want an additional Win single on ST PETERSBURG as he has far less to beat.

Redcar 1,45 (1) Marshman (8/1)
Redcar 2.20 (7) St Petersburg (7/1)
Redcar 3.30 (3) Donna's Double (10/1)
Nottingham 4.15 (8) Tilla (7/1)

6 x £3 Win Doubles (£18)
4 x £2 Each Way Trebles (£16)

(£34 staked on the bet)


+++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++

Bet 3

Redcar 12.40 (4) Great Fox
Redcar 1.10 (1) Dancing Phantom

£20 Double

The issue here is simple. Both have unbelievable winning chances but both have strong reasons why they may flop.( Great Fox has a swerving problem and Dancing Phatom may "Bounce" ). Therefore an Each way double is innapropriate. 2 Win singles makes limited appeal as we could have a winner and only break level on the 2 horses. A Small win double is appropriate as we could get 11/2 about our cash and thats far too big ,and If I am right then Both will win, and if I am wrong we either a) wouldnt have won anyway b) have saved plenty of staking money. Good call I think.


*********************************

Lay of the Day


No Bet

I have not had a chance to think it through with all the staking demons about the "personal bets". There is an Endless list of "negatives" rejected solely as they are either too big to lay or have drifted out to silly prices. The First price is the Racing Post price and the 2nd is their current price or the price you are likely to have to go to lay them.

Redcar 12.40 After All 4/1-9/1
Redcar 1.45 Distant Country 6/1-7/1
Redcar 3.30 Crozon 11/4-4/1
Redcar 3.30 Aoninch 11/2-7/1
Nottingham 3.05 Saada One 7/4-11/2
Nottinghan 4,15 Tass Heel 11/2-12/1
************************************
************************************