No Advised bet today but if you want a bet and will be
having one anyway then I would suggest Jonny Ebeneezer.
There is no Sand Racing Tomorrow so no message.


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Personal Bets/Lay of the Day

Nothing Advised.


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Yesterday's Summary

Nothing on the account. George Stubbs ran ok but needs a mile but the striking thing about Lingfield is how close the finishes are and how many horse challenge and threaten to win each race. It does look like the best jockey performance wins every handicap unless a horse is thrown in and it does make finding bets hard. It will be a slow year but we have to be patient. You hear the Chorus of pseudo experts who pretend to be able to predict Pace and how races are likely to be run but it is nothing more than guesswork. All you can do is wait until you can answer most of the questions and then bet.

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Today's Racing


SOUTHWELL


Field sizes of 16, 16, 16, 14, 16, 16, 16 and 16 Make a detailed Message impossible on an 8 race Card. There are just too many runners so I am afraid it will have to be a 1 Race message. I can't afford to sacrifice Quality just for the sake of Quantity and there is only one race I can play in myself and that is the 12.30 where Jonny Ebeneezer should win. I am not making him a bet though.

There is no Sand Racing Tomorrow so no message tomorrow. In terms of today it is not the ideal circumstances in which to "Tip" without knowledge of how the track will ride, what the draw advantages are or how slow it is today in light of almost every race having a maximum field. I am going to be around all day today and will be making some late decisions , reacting to the market, having a look at some match bets and spread prices and I will be posting a few thoughts on the message board today just before each race. I understand that some of you will not have access to that during the day and that is not a situation I want, but I can assure you If there was anything I could tell you right now that would be an aid in making you money it would be in this message and I am holding nothing back from this mail that I intend to Post on the Board later. It is simply one of those days where to make any kind of sense of the place and to make sure I am not misleading you I need to see racing start and watch how things are developing before I can be sure and this is not the sign that I am moving towards late message board updates, it is just that it is a day that demands it. The integrity of the E Mail is paramount and it will always be the Main vehicle of passing thoughts on to you and this will not be a trend you need to worry about. It happens today as it is better to be right and late than to guess early.

Before every race from 12.45pm I will Post a Thread on the Board under "Horse Racing" and do some "last minute" betting and some spread betting as well. As I say there is nothing held back from this mail but I do want to see the track riding one way or another and in this game the early bird rarely captures the worm and when he does it can still taste vile. I will also use the same thread for Mr Steels bets today before the race and will keep on top of that as well today.

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Southwell 12.30

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Jonny Ebeneezer, 11/2 Speedfit Free, 7/1 Hurricane Coast, Turku, 10/1 Swynford Welcome, 14/1 Levantine, 16/1 A One, Kumakawa, Zoeanna, 20/1 Thaayer, 25/1 Better Pal, Heathyardsblessing, Margarets Wish, 33/1 Proud Victor, 50/1 Blue Circle, Eager Angel.

Selection = Jonny Eberneezer

SPEEDFIT FREE looks a danger but had this been a handicap he would be 18lbs better off with the favourite and Ian Semple has always said that the horse is a Pig and only wins when he wants to. He is very badly weighted today and tackles a trip (7f) that he lost all 17 times he has raced at before. The horse is just an average horse that can raise his game when he wants to, but shows no sign of telling you when that is

HURRICANE COAST is a strange horse and hard to win with. This was with Tim Easterby and is now with Paul Blockley who races him for the 2nd time today. It is significant that Easterby let him go at the sales especially as he is a big horse from the family of Royal Gait so you would assume a jumping career was considered. I think "last time out" was a "sightener" to see what he has but HURRICANE COAST has run 10 times this year and has probably disappointed on 8 of those occasions. He also faces his Sand debut today but at least he is in Good hands and one of the better weighted animals and his Sire has made a promising start with his dirt runners. Watch the Market would be the best advice but we simply do not know whether the horse has a problem, why he ran badly last time, what kind of form he is in, whether his low draw will hinder him or not or whether he acts on the track and surface.

TURKU is another to watch in the market now Derek Shaw is in form but he is really a problem horse and has moved stable for the 3rd time in just under a year which suggests he is difficult to train. His only race here was when well beaten by some low rated animals but He is proven at Wolverhampton and just the type to act. Since that Southwell race he was off the track for a few months and has not looked the same horse since. He has not won since his days with a far better trainer though and he does not convince me that today will be his day much as he has won when fresh.

SWYNFORD WELCOME has a very interesting fitness advantage on her field but I believe she has a huge Achilles Heel. She did run well the other night at Wolverhampton but it was not a strong race and she has yet to win on sand yet. There is also signs that she is regressing a bit or at least out of form. She started the year rated 65 on grass and has dropped to only rated 44, and on sand she was "53" horse and now is rated only "40" on sand. That drop in the weights won't help her today as this is not a handicap, and she is also penalised with a 6lbs penalty under the conditions of this race for winning a race at Epsom way back in June. However I believe there is a "killer" stat that knocks her out today and that is Weight. Look at this horse's record when carrying weight of 9st or over as it is incredible. I just do not believe she is capable of carrying weight and with 9st 6lbs today I must oppose her. She has run 21 times in her life with 9st or more in the plate. She has NEVER been remotely competitive in any of those 21 races and that is incredible. Her record when racing with 9st or over resulted in Finishing positions of 10th UR 16th 12th 9th18th 16th 4th 13th 5th 11th 17th 8th 7th 6th 15th 10th 12th 14th 14th and 7th.
In those races she was beaten by 13, 51, 10, 16, 6, 19, 18, 2, 15, 6, 9, 9, 8, 5, 5, 12, 18, 2, 2 13, 6 and 8 lengths. She was not a rank outsider either in these races and she was beaten at many prices under 10/1 including 9/1 8/1 13/2 10/1 7/2 11/2 13/2 9/2 8/1 and 9/1.When She carries big weights She has a dreadful record and I can not get past that fact and that makes her a "Negative" in this race despite the weakness of the race.

LEVANTINE is a Tony Newcombe horse so you have to be careful with this yard, but races off "levels" with Jonny Ebeneezer yet he is rated 29lbs inferior by the handicapper and has never raced here before. He looks nothing more that modest, he is bred for turf and even at 16/1 he makes no appeal.

JONNY EBERNEEZER is a banker here if He is doing his best and is able to run to his best. This is a very well handicapped horse that Robert Cowell has just bought him from Ian Wood's stable for £14,000 and after that purchase said that he wanted to map an all weather campaign for him, but he did say that he felt that would be best at Southwell or Wolverhampton as the horse "needs cut in the ground". I opposed him last week at Lingfield due to that fact and a wide draw and he ran mid pack as expected. Of course experience tells me that when you Tip them at this sort of price you can not win Long term and although it can mean missing winners, and this is probably the winner, I know it makes sense long term and you do bypass most of the Skulduggery.
That said JONNY EBERNEEZER is proven here and has ran in far higher class than any of these. His only run her was when 4 lengths behind Mufreh in a 0-75 on October from a bad draw. That day his lowest rated opponent was 64. Today his highest rated one is only rated 58 and that horse has to give him 6lbs in weight. I suppose you could argue that he may be better at 7f, and that his stable could be in better form and the First Time Cheekpieces an unknown factor but in this class he should not get beaten and I think his price of 7/4 is really quite generous and massive if he runs his race.

Conclusion

All in all I would be very surprised if JONNY EBERNEEZER was beaten. I would not make him an account bet though. Much of this is to do with Long Term Profit and staying away from controversy on the sand but I suppose if you were prepared to ignore that, I could not put you off a bet. I think you can probably ask legitimate questions about the form of his stable, but that would not worry me too much. I think my biggest fear is that the horse, although likely to be cruising during the race may not be best placed in the Middle stall, and He could surrender first run to another animal and it may take him some time to get going and to work up momentum and to finish especially as we do not know how slow, if at all it will ride. The last 7 Southwell meetings have seen deep slow ground but we have had a month's break now since Southwell has raced and the last time there was a long break between meetings it rode completely differently and much can change in this area just as it did at Wolverhampton with the draw on the opening day. There are few things you can take for granted on sand these days and I would be far happier if we had seen the track yesterday and had at least some idea how it was riding. One concern may be that he comes up the middle of the track if there is a massive advantage from racing stands side. That's not a shot in the dark. When he ran behind Mufreh 3 starts ago here, he did exactly that. He was stuck up the middle when there appeared a huge edge for horses on the stands side and at a short price that is another issue that has to be factored into his price. When you are betting 5/1 chances you can be more accommodating but at short prices you have to be more ruthless and demand answers before you bet. I know a lot of this seems ambiguous. He is a strong fancy yet not a staked bet. I think he is a horse that I would be personally happy to bet myself, but unhappy to advise as an account bet. I think if you were to ask me the perfect scenario to bet him, it would be in an each way double with a similar type of bet but I can not see one on the day and can't find a leg that I feel safe enough to put him with. I would just say that if you do want a bet on the day, and you are going to have one anyway then I would bet him but for long term profit and the account I am happy to leave it as a blank day.
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