Best Bet of the Day

No Bet

This really is a desperate day and Southwells card today is the worst card of the Week. I think Tomorrow is potentially the best chance of a Full Account Bet as Lingfield has decent races to exploit. Southwell could be a meeting to play in on Thursday but there won't be a Bet or a Message on Friday. Saturday has excellent prospects with a Double-Header at Lingfield and Wolves. In Terms of today, I can't see anything Good enough, or a Big Enough Price to go to war with. It looks a day for small each way Multiples . Perhaps some Doubles and Trebles may pay dividends . I,m a lot more excited about Wednesdays Cards and what Little I do have today is Below .

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Today's Racing

I have to give today's Dreadful card a Big Swerve. I'm not going to do a D.R.V. Today and I'm keeping things short and sweet as it's not a card I can do anything with at all. Despite the Pace issues, Lingfield looks Good tomorrow and I have my eye on a 12 furlong handicap there , but Southwell today is the sort of card that leaves my hands tied . There are 3 Hot Favourites (2 start odds-on) that can't be Opposed and can't be Backed. There is a maiden where horses can't be assessed, a couple of poor quality sprints and an impossible selling handicap and Finale that leaves you cold.

Quickly running through it in more detail, MACS TALISMAN opens the card at 2.30. People keep saying he's about to win , and maybe He is but his stable are out of form , and what edge I can give him on the numbers is cast into Doubt by not being able to rate the improvement of RELATIVE HERO or BAR OF SILVER . They could both improve a lot. All I'd say is stay with these 3 runners as likely winners as the older horses (Investment Force + Pants) are badly treated at the weights. There has been money for Johnstones Investment Force but it hasnt ran in years and weight for age gives it a very poor chance today . The Favourite is the bet on the Numbers .

In the 1.00 I was looking at MUTARAFAA's potential of being an Each Way alternative to Dil and Night Shift Blues, but the horse just doesn't give me enough evidence that he's ready to win. I can remember his trainer saying he thought the horses problems were Mental but whilst the betting suggests he's a "Strong 3rd candidate" to win the race, his last run wasn't easy on the eye and it's not hard to see him flop. He's clearly flattered by his rating. I Didn't like Kelly's Tune. Both DIL and NIGHT SHIFT BLUES are Horses that I can't split and either could win. Both were 2/1 earlier on Betfair and if you backed them both to level stakes that comes out as a 1-2 chance and that's not a bad risk. It wouldn't be a huge shock if Sergeant Slipper found the race run to suit him (He has to have races fold out in certain ways) or Superapparos Come into it if a few run below par, but in all likelihood it looks a Match up front with DIL and NIGHT SHIFT BLUES and the call may be to play the Bigger Priced horse of the two in an each way double with Stand By ( 3.00).

The Fillies Handicap at 1.30 puts me in snooker. I can't realistically Oppose YAVARI at 4/5. She was just too impressive and the obvious alternative Flopped yesterday. I can't give her up though as a sensible selection at that price. I can't give an alternative "each-way" against here either as none look cast-iron each way. LITTLEMISSATTITUDE Ran below form yesterday at Wolves, but that may have been a hot claimer, she wasn't the ideal age for the race, and IF Nigel Shields gives her the vote of confidence by not withdrawing here today from the race then back against her own sex she looks to be a danger but she may be a non runner later after yesterday's excursions. LITTLETON ZEPHIR Could be value at 25/1 and ZYZANIA Has seen money in places so the race for the "placings" could be warmer than ideal .

I can't either Bet Tip or Oppose YOUNG COLLIER in the staying event at 2.00 Pm. I can't find sensible opposition at all and I'm confident YOUNG COLLIER should win, but at 8/13 we've long since learnt that this is not the way to bet and it certainly isn't the way to Tip.

Ironically I spent most time on the Dreadful Selling Handicap at 2.30. I couldn't find an edge anywhere. Whilst I'm NOT In any way saying that IF I CAN DREAM is a horse I like, or advise you bet, (She has a chance but poor sire stats for the course), She is about 9/2 on Betfair and I think that in races like this that are impossible to assess for anyone, the Public will latch on to Her and make her a lot shorter in price. She is the Natural "public" horse. I think if you can't get 9/2 about her you should have a Free Bet later by laying her back at shorter as they have to come for something here, and she's certain to be the one for me. Personally I can't bet a Brief Truce Filly Here AND I doubt she's the one here. I'd like a Male horse but they are few and far between here. Perhaps JOHNS CHAMP or LEITRIM ROCK could be the ones. I would wait for market evidence of something being fancied and preferably at a bigger price. Certainly on Form Book analysis these are so bad it's hard to even find a favourite never mind a winner.

The Claiming sprint at 3.00 Looks between 4 Runners and I'd be inclined to try STAND BY Each Way as his numbers are consistently good and He should run his race. I Feel like I can make an equal case for Pure Coincidence, Rudik and Carlton and I also feel that All 3 of these have the potential to disappoint as well, and the 7/1 about STAND BY does make some appeal. I did consider him as a BBOD as well but whilst he's been running well, the stable have Gone over a year without a winner which is never a good sign and with the horse being best as a front runner he could either win or die here. I will be betting him myself each way though and he's the best I can offer on a bad day.

The Finale is a minefield at 3.30. It's easy to fall in with PARK STREET But she takes on a few male horses and her numbers are Poor and don't give her the edge that her 2+1 form figures suggest. She will be well bet today .I wouldn't fancy offering anything up as an alternative but she's not for me. ROYAL TIME from David Barons has seen some money this morning as well.

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Horses to Follow

Parachute + Allesandro Severo +riaka king +Baraloti + Town Called Malice + twylight mistress+ pays d'amour +aleron + glitter and glory +Thurlestone rock +donizetti +duescals +camlet +pop gun+ fifth edition +marabar +turtle recall +garmoucheh +electrique +eva peron +trekking +online investor +barolo +janoueix +Marshman
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