Best Bet of the Day

Wolverhampton

1.20 SPANISH STAR

1 Pts Win


Great Difficulty in deciding between SPANISH STAR and COMTESSE NOIRE as the Best Bet of the Day. I have given it to SPANISH STAR despite the fact I fancy COMTESSE NOIRE More. I have done this as SPANISH STAR has far fewer dangers, and with COMTESSE NOIRE There is an outside factor that I cant control. I also seriously considered a 0.5 Pts Each Way Double. I am not advising a saver in the race but I am saving at 14/1 on WITHOUT WORDS. Its your call but at 14/1 I think you should save and win lose or draw the bet counts without a saver just for clarity’s sake. I also have some value options in the 2.55 and that race, and several others are explained in the DRV. Lately I have felt the "February blues” and felt like I was studying in quicksand. Today's Wolverhampton meeting, after a couple of days break has been so easy to do and is full of outstanding bets in my opinion and I fancy my chances today.

Double Header on Saturday with Lingfield (1.30 start) and Wolverhampton (7.30 start) and the Message will be done for 12.15 pm

I Will write to you tonight and Give you the New telephone number when I get a chance to sort out how It works as its complicated my end,


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TODAYS RACING


Wolverhampton 12.45

Betting Forecast: 100/30 Tigress, 7/2 Acorazado, 7/1 Rita's Rock Ape, 8/1 Cash, Pulse, 9/1 Soaked, 14/1 Nineacres, 16/1 Cressex Katie, Salerno, Sotonian, 25/1 Laurel Dawn, Woodland Blaze.

5 furlong sprint to start with. My Best "Negative "is RITAS ROCK APE and I think she will be beaten and outclassed stepping up to this grade. TIGRESS comes down as a very solid runner with every chance without being bet compelling. TIGRESS is having a toe-to toe with the handicapper and the Jury is out as to whether he's just knocked her out and stopped her winning. He will beat her in the end its just a matter of time and time is running out. For CASH I'd need to see market confidence. CASH had his battle with the handicapper and lost it a few weeks ago. He has now been dropped 5lbs since then and will at some stage take in another battle with him. He is only 2lbs higher than his previous best winning handicap mark so if he does win, it will be a Career best on paper but it wouldn't be completely out of his reach and at 8/1 he has a chance without a doubt from a very shrewd yard. ACORAZADO is a bit of an enigma. Finding his trip has been a real problem but Willie Haggis has kept him far longer than he would many, and he has scratched many a head. Last time he dropped back to his minimum trip. That was 5f at Southwell and he ran his best race in just being caught on the line in a driving finish. He has never raced at today's trip at Wolverhampton, so cant be judged here completely. He has come down 14lbs in the weights and its easy to see why there has been money for him. I Cant decide about him. The Time of his Southwell run last time was Snail like and the favourite that day ruined his chance by rearing up in the stalls. That Time must suggest the leaders went off too fast that day and it certainly undermines his chance if not totally flattering him. I Cant have the risk at 7/2. NINEACRES Will run well and is possibly going to Pop up soon at a big price but he is a 12 year old and that's off-putting. So was the class of race he ran in last time. PULSE isn't a total outsider but this should be too tough. Pretty hard start to the day and my attention will be on CASH and his price, how ACORAZADO Runs and TIGRESS and her battle with the handicapper and I cant smell a bet at this stage.

Conclusion

I think the strength in depth runs deep here. Trainer comments in today's post suggest confidence behind CRESSEX KATIE and WOODLAND BLAZE and there could be plenty with chances here. I don't fancy RITA'S ROCK APE but the potential winner is probably going to come from more horses than I care to choose from and I have this down as too hard. ACORAZARDO will probably be the "Public" horse but I Think factors undermine his chance and question his chance and I'm yet to be convinced. No Bet for me here but if I was to play I'd be thinking about laying a few like RITAS ROCK APE, PULSE and SOAKED "Combined" to reduce the price and liability.

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Wolverhampton 1.20

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Spanish Star, 4/1 Magic Charm, 9/2 Lazzaz, 7/1 Peartree House, 8/1 Mantilla, 12/1 Roller, 14/1 Sea Ya Maite, 16/1 Our Paddy, Super Dominion, 20/1 Without Words, 25/1 Kafil, 33/1 Rivendell.

PEARTREE HOUSE is a Negative. I pretty much agree with the post in wanting to Oppose PEARTREE HOUSE. I Cant have that much as I wouldn't want to lay him. Its no surprise that he is drifting badly on Betfair and is trading at 12/1 and above.

SPANISH STAR is a confident bet here and I've backed him strongly at a drifting price that I find hard to understand. If you can sum up everything I hate about the sand in one horse its SPANISH STAR. Poor quality, frequent runner , ungenuine, capable of decent form and big numbers , capable of poor races and slow figures, wins races on different course and different trips at different times and can make you looks a shrewd hero and equally embarrass you by winning when least expected and least convenient. SPANISH STAR Here for me is a big price at 3/1 and a confident bet. Far better than these, he is back on his best track and I'm pretty confident that he will win IF He runs his race. He wasn't that impressive last time on Video when 5th in a better race but this is a serious drop in class and his chance to win his first race in a year when he won over C+D Last February. I think he's a great price at 3/1 but he does have the annoying capacity to get stuffed when you bet him. This is his 25th race in the last 12 months since he last won and its possibly his easiest as well and I am betting him at 3/1 but I'm doing so with my eyes wide open and knowing what kind of mule he can be when he wants to .

MANTILLA is a horse that I cant fancy. She is 0 from 22 in her career. She is ridden by a Kid having his First ride ever under rules and she faces a wide draw in stall 12. She has also just been beaten 66 lengths over sticks, and at 8/1 she looks woefully behind SPANISH STAR in every category you can dream up. If she wins then I'd suck it and lump it but I cant see the case for her at the moment.

MAGIC CHARM was a disappointment for Nick Littmoden last year and then downgraded to Tony Newcombe. Her recent form isn't much and whilst its such a bad race she is by default a danger. When you compare her and the Favourite, I Think SPANISH STAR is a far better animal and if you look at the horses MAGIC CHARM has finished behind, they are some way behind horses that SPANISH STAR has beaten. I mean come on; she is 1 from 26 and won that race on her 17th start. In that Winning race she met Only Fillies, and Won when in Receipt of weight from a horse rated ONLY 34!!! She isn't much good, even last time she Finished BEHIND Indian Music who is a poor selling animal rated just 37 and that day she got 11lbs in weight! The market is telling you that MAGIC CHARM is stronger and Vying for Favouritism with SPANISH STAR And maybe Tony Newcombe is having a gamble with her today. Bring it on Tony I say because I'd love to bet SPANISH STAR in a match bet with MAGIC CHARM who I feel is a far inferior horse.

LAZZAZ is another Small danger. He was just ahead of SPANISH STAR Two starts ago (I'm sure SPANISH STAR Ran below par that day) and he has a fitness assuring run just 4 days ago. He's an old mule but its a desperate race. I think that Lazzaz pilot Mrs Marie King is a problem today. I Oppose one of her mounts in the 2.20 (Prince Minata) and in the DRV I Blame a lot of that on this jockey. If you are able to watch her ride in this race, you will know whether I have the 2.20 race Correct or whether I am wrong. I will be watching her ride very closely today as I don't think she can ride. Even the 3rd home was rated only 48 and that horse gave her 22lbs and a beating.

Conclusion

I'm pretty confident that SPANISH STAR is a big price at 3/1. IF You ran this race 20 times , at 3/1 he would only have to win it 5 Times from those 20 runs to break level at 3/1 and I find it very hard to believe he wouldn't win it twice as often as that, and he's trading at 7/2+ on Betfair . Sometimes the "Drift "can put you off a horse, but Today I don't think the "Drift " will put me off as the Racing Post comments that He is "perhaps not good enough " are garbage and not even worthy of argument .I'm betting him and suggest you do as well and those of you who, like me, prefer the Belt and Braces approach and want a saver, then its LAZZAZ For me UNLESS They gamble Mark Brisbornes WITHOUT WORDS Who has, according to Brisborne always worked better than his handicap mark and is a likely type to sicken you at 20/1. Close eye on the betting with him, but SPANISH STAR is on Pole position. I would have been delighted with the 11/4 last night so the 4/1 appeals even more.

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Wolverhampton 1.50

Betting Forecast: 10/11 Phantom Flame, 7/2 Winthorpe, 11/2 Notanother, 8/1 Azreme, 10/1 Victory Vee, 20/1 Gilded Cove, Superapparos, 33/1 Blakeshall Quest, Don't Talk Shop, 50/1 Long Weekend, 66/1 Phoenix Nights.

It seems a case of watch the market. PHANTOM FLAME is technically unproven here but there was a lot of market support for him at Lingfield on his debut and he is clearly useful. He is also very strongly supported at 8/11 on Betfair and the "Vibes" say he is the one. He is in the Derby as well, which makes you wonder why he has dropped back in trip today which is off putting in my opinion. WINTHORPE sets a decent standard but his well being is unclear after 4 months off the track and you have to ask why this horse that is 7/2 in the Racing post is currently trading at 8/1 on the exchanges.

Paul Darcy's AZREME Must be interesting as well but totally unpredictable in assessing him. I Think he’s being "handicapped” today and surely a son of Unfuwain wants a far longer trip on his 3rd start. He wont win for me .The One proven runner is also my strongest negative. I cant fancy NOTANOTHER at all. She's a strange filly. she isn't mentally there and the proximity of horses behind her show her up as modest and I cant see her winning this and I'd have priced her up at 12/1 minimum here . It isn't a race I can sort out so I'm leaving it alone. PHANTOM FLAME is easy to fancy and his main danger looks to be WINTHORPE.
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Wolverhampton 2.20

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Littleton Zephir, 7/2 Cherine, 9/2 Comtesse Noire, Windshift, 5/1 Prince Minata, 14/1 Deekazz, 20/1 Elucidate, Top Of The Class, 25/1 Boom Or Bust, Royal Enclosure, Western Command.


I like this race quite a bit and will be playing .First of all this is a 5 runner race between the 5 horses at the Front of the market. These are
LITTLETON ZEPHIR, CHERINE, COMTESSE NOIRE, WINDSHIFT and PRINCE MINATA. I Cant see any of the remaining runners being competitive and I'm sure we can get this sorted.


LITTLETON ZEPHIR is slowly improving, but with Topweight I'm happy to look elsewhere .She was weak on Betfair last night, she has only won her 2 races when facing Fillies. Today she faces colts and that could be problematic. Last time she hardly beat anything and had the benefit of a Professional rider in a driving finish where you could have thrown a blanket over the first 3 home and I think she is vulnerable today.

PRINCE MINATA Has just won at 7/2 under Marie King, a girl riding her first race. PRINCE MINATA Wins a couple of desperate races every year when he can dominate and on the face of has excellent claims. His Rider today, Marie King worries me to the point of laughter as her style is not attractive and I could not help smiling at her strange ineffective style. I Know she's just won 5 lengths, and she is probably the only jockey in England with a 100% strike rate, I just feel she has to be opposed in a finish watching her ride. The Time was slow and she was flattered anyway, so the 5 length win to me is irrelevant. I would rather take Pat Butcher in the saddle with the overweight than this girl in a finish and despite her record of pure perfection, I'm looking forward to her being nailed late as she shoves the reigns around in a pathetic exhibition . IF I'm right, which I am, and then it highlights the crucial effect of video analysis over form study. If I'm wrong I'll make a donation to the Women's Liberation movement and never criticise her again. She is a seriously damaging factor in this horse's chance for me.

COMTESSE NOIRE is a big runner here. If you ask me to predict the stable that will make me most money this year then my ante post favourite would be Andrew Balding who I rate very highly, and who has already contributed to our profit totals and I am seriously interested in COMTESSE NOIRE as the potential winner of this race. She is nothing special lets face it this is only a 0-49 race. This sand season she has ran 3 times. She was 3rd over 12 furlongs when the stable said the trip was " clearly too far " and she didn't stay. She then ran back at 9 furlongs here (in a better race than this) when Racereaders commented that "Comtesse Noire shaped well disputing the lead to the furlong-pole on her first start in 4 months". The horse directly behind her that day would be topweight in this race by a Clear 7lbs which shows the poor level of this race. Last time, COMTESSE NOIRE Ran in a maiden race that is far better class than this, and what is more, she ran over a trip (12f) she clearly fails to stay. She was always prominent and went to win the race before the stamina gave out and she ran out of petrol. Don't forget that this race has a Top Rated horse of 49 today. She was just overtaken by 2 horses in that maiden last time. One was a big scopey dark horse from Ireland landing a gamble and rated 65, (a huge 16lbs higher that today's top rated horse) and the runner up was a Jeremy Noseda horse rated 62. You can go back 12 lengths to the 4th that day and for a no stayer that was an excellent run in the context of this sad race. I just hope James Davies can do the business in the saddle. He is 1 from 33 and a worry to be honest. The other big worry is the Draw. She is drawn in stall 1 and that's not a stall that statistically provides many winners at all at this trip and I am worried. My Advice, is that you need to put yourself in a position of NOT Being able to lose money on the race
IF COMTESSE NOIRE Wins. With a decent draw and a better pilot she is easily BBOD Material.

CHERINE Won at Southwell over 7f at 40/1 and at the time that race looked puzzling. She was then beaten by LITTLETON ZEPHIR Over a mile when she could never get into the race. Her last race was in far better class but she was beaten a long way. She's still pretty hard to read as she has never raced here before, but in such a bad race she is respected with Emma Littmoden in the saddle. I would say that her current price of 5/1 reflects her chance very well.

WINDSHIFT is the final player here. Long Term members will remember 2 years ago when we backed him at 14/1 on the account in a huge gamble. He hasn't won since and has dropped 21lbs in the weights from "64" to "43". He has been running well lately looking like he is about to win. He isn't the same horse as 2 years ago though and his chance will depend mainly on how his Battle up front goes with Comtesse Noire.

Conclusion

1) Comtesse Noire is Not a BBOD as she has stall 1, a poor jockey and could be caught up in a battle at the front of the pack with Windshift and others. I will be betting her myself though and I would advise the same.
2) The Jockey riding Prince Minata also has a previous ride in the 1.20 on Lazzaz. Watch her in that race and you May know whether I am right or wrong about wanting to oppose her on Prince Minata.
3) Windshift and Cherine scare me but I'm firmly behind COMTESSE NOIRE and she is 80% BBOD Strength and I'm on her myself.

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Wolverhampton 2.55

Betting Forecast: 9/2 Hugh The Man, 7/1 Eurolink Artemis, No Mercy, Sinjaree, 8/1 Lively Felix, 10/1 Night Market, Storm Shower, 12/1 Piquet, 14/1 Didnt Tell My Wife, Greenaway Bay, Sarena Special, 16/1 All On My Own, Ashville Lad.


Conclusion

1) I agree with the Post in that DIDN'T TELL MY WIFE is not sure to stay this trip but I have backed him at over 20/1 as I think he still has an outstanding chance. I liked him a lot on Video last time, he is a topweight dropping in Class in a handicap which is my speciality and whilst I wont pretend he fits all the Criteria of a strong bet, at his price he is a fabulous risk at 20/1 and I cant resist him despite a struggling stable.

2) I have ran out of time to have a detailed look here but I don't fancy NIGHT MARKET, NO MERCY or LIVELY FELIX

3) SINJAREE possibly offers the best recent profile if he can cope with a low draw and would be the one runner I like as much as DIDNT TELL MY WIFE and He isn't a bad saver at 6/1 if you want a saver. Personally my only bet is DIDNT TELL THE WIFE at 20/1+ at about 75% win and 25% Place.

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Wolverhampton 4.00

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Irish Tycoon, 5/1 Prince Of Gold, 6/1 Easy Rider, 7/1 My Bayard, My Valentine, 10/1 Bally Hall, 14/1 Tetragon, 16/1 Etching, Go Sheek, 33/1 Errol, 50/1 Chemicalreaction, Dances With Angels, Top Tune.

Again suffering from tremendous time pressure here so a "Conclusions" only summary.

1) I think that if IRISH TYCOON is beaten by MY BAVARD His connections will be worryingly scratching their heads, and I cant have MY BAYARD at all in a Class E Maiden.

2) Gerard Butler has a poor Wolverhampton record but his BALLY HALL is stronger in the market than I would have expected and He wants careful attention when looking at the on course market later.

3) EASY RIDER and PRINCE OF GOLD Have "Half-chances" in my opinion but may find one or two superior in this maiden. TETRAGON needs a handicap and he will be interesting off "51" soon in handicaps. I don't think its in his interests to win this race today.

4) IRISH TYCOON has to be "most likely winner" and 2/1 seems a fair price without being too over generous, but his lack of Fibresand form makes him easy to leave alone today.

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Wolverhampton 4.35

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Anemos, Promised, 9/2 Mallard, 5/1 Basinet, 8/1 Crusoe, 12/1 Shahm, 16/1 Royal Cascade, Zinging, 25/1 Illustrious Duke, Ivory Bay, 33/1 Companion, Macanillo, 50/1 Illusionist.

Conclusion

1) Big doubts about PROMISED handling the track
2) CRUSOE Has a better chance than his 10/1 quote suggests
3) BASINET is clearly fancied in the market and will be Fav.
4) I cant see a bet and I've ran out of time.

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Horses to Follow

None Run Today

Superchief + Allesandro Severo +riaka king +Baraloti ++ twylight mistress+ pays d'amour +aleron +donizetti +duescals +camlet +pop gun+ fifth edition +marabar +turtle recall +garmoucheh +electrique +eva peron +trekking +online investor +barolo +janoueix

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