2 Best Bets of the Day

Both Ante Post Bets

Newmarket May 3rd+4th

1000 Guineas Six Perfections 3/1
2000 Guineas Trade Fair 8/1

1 Point Win Double

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1000 Guineas Six Perfections 3/1
2000 Guineas Hold That Tiger 5/2

0.5 Pts Win Double


1) I have decided to stake 2 Full BBOD,s on the Guineas (May 3rd and 4th) and I am staking 1.5 of those 2 Points Today
2) Place the Bets as early as possible and consult www.oddschecker.co.uk for best prices although I will steer you to Corals and the Tote first
3) Don't get hung up about prices too much , just try and get the 3/1 about Six Perfections and try and get 7/1 + For Trade Fair
4) Make sure you take prices on both horses. I know that may sound obvious but believe me someone will take S.P. by mistake
5) I'll elaborate later in the week about both bets but it must be done today as the 2000 Guineas is about to Collapse
6) I'll be having both bets myself to a £300 Double and a £150 Double although I am already committed to Trade Fair and others
7) There will be an additional saver but that doesn't need to be done today

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Yesterdays Summary


There was a decent profit again yesterday from my own personal bets. I don't win every day you have to understand that, so go carefully but I don't
Mess about and it has been a long time since I've lost money at the game over a year so they are given with a lot of thought and are as good a reflection of my thoughts as you can get. I must say the feedback is strongly in favour of retaining them and on the whole has created a massive postbag of questions about the bets and more of you seem to be following them to your own stakes. Many of you are suggesting they should replace the account but Decisions like that would really need a Referendum. Just to clear up a misconception, when I said that I had no idea if they had produced a profit, I was only saying that I had no idea about whether they had made a profit since coming into the messages, and that only takes into account the bets I have given since I included them in the message, which is a couple of weeks ago. There is no doubt of their long term profitability and if there was I wouldn't be sat typing this Mail. I certainly feel in Good Form though and I am enjoying the change of racing a lot as the sand was depressing me. I Have now changed the Pin Number of the 0871 Line and it was given in yesterdays Mail which you can access by logging into the website if you haven't already Deleted it. I want to keep regular changes going to maintain prices as Best I can and the old pin number is now invalid.

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Today's racing

Look at Today's Racing in 3 stages

1) The Ante Post Guineas Bets which you should do ASAP
2) The 16/1 Nibble that could pay for all bets today
3) The "CANINE " Bet that is a cheap risk and could win big.


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THE 16/1 NIBBLE on Supreme Salutation

Musselburgh 3.25 Betting Forecast: 7/2 Oscar Pepper, 4/1 Friday's Takings, 8/1 Marjurita, 9/1 Ballyhurry, 10/1 Everest, Zhitomir, 12/1 Supreme Salutation, 14/1 Ace Of Trumps, Finmar, Nellie Melba, 16/1 Anthemion, Italian Affair, Noul, 25/1 Repulse Bay.

It is rather obvious that FRIDAYS TAKINGS and OSCAR PEPPER are very well handicapped on grass and both are fighting for favouritism with FRIDAYS TAKINGS Gaining the upper hand at the moment . I remember opposing OSCAR PEPPER in this race last year solely as he had never won on grass before and had been beaten off very similar marks in the past . You have to give them both great chances but neither is dragging me towards them and neither scares me that much. I will sit this out with a small interest bet on SUPREME SALUTATION whom is 18/1 on Betfair and possibly may touch 20/1 .Yes he isn't as likely a winner as these pair but his grass form stands up far better than his sand form and he always runs well at this April Musselburgh meeting and today he try's a better trip . Two years ago at this meeting he was a close 5th in a Class D Handicap that the A.O.R.'s tell me was better than this race and had far more strength in depth , and Last year He ran a great race in coming 2nd in another handicap that was better than this. Now both those April runs here were over 7 furlongs and he is far better at a mile, and he had a fitness inducing run 3 days ago over a trip he couldn't win over (6f) . Actually I'm beginning to fancy this more and more . I have had £25 averaging 18.71 this morning and I may bet him again to a similar stake if any more is offered me and with Darley on board and a great track record I'd be very happy this is a great little play to small stakes that could ensure a nice day .


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THE CANINE BET

THE CANINE BET is named as such as I have 3 horses today that I think are Certainties on Form and should win at 7/2, 5/1 and 5/1 . However ALL 3 Horses are renowned "Dogs " and are ungenuine, Hard to win with and could easily let you down . The Idea is this. I Cant trust ANY Of them to be a BBOD and certainly not on a day when I'm already staking 1.5 Points Ante Post . I cant nominate ANY 1 of the 3 as the "Best" of them as they are all potential certainties and could all either win or flop .I Have to bet all 3 as they all have great and equal chances . Therefore I have a dilemma.
I cant imagine in my wildest dreams that these 3 "Dogs" can all win . It wont be worth it if only 1 of them wins . I have decided to bet the 3 horses in a multiple bet , as a Double will pay very well and will really be worth the effort and I think that's easily possible as they are so far ahead of their rivals. I am staking £150 in 3 x £50 Doubles and just 2 wins will comfortably clear well over a Grand in returns.Its a cheap risk in my opinion . Incidently If you want to go each way i,d not put you off but i,m staying win only . I'll analyse all 3 horses below.


Brighton 2.35 SUSSEX LAD
Musselburgh 2.55 ZARZU
Brighton 5.05 JAMES STARK

3 x £50 Doubles


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Musselburgh 2.55. Betting Forecast: 9/4 Quito, 7/2 Zarzu, 5/1 Quick Flight, 13/2 Opening Ceremony, 8/1 Bon Ami, Flying Treaty, 10/1 Sir Northerndancer, 16/1 Conundrum, 33/1 Second Wind, 50/1 Woolfe.


WOOLFE and SECOND WIND are outclassed at the weights and QUICK FLIGHT can't be fancied as a 3 year old (poor record) against older horses. We see Last Weeks 10/1 Losing BBOD FLYING TREATY Come out today. The only excuse I can muster for him was that 7 furlongs on fast ground was too sharp a test for him at Leicester, and I'm in no mood to give him another try on a sharper track at the same distance on fast ground and He is not for me today despite a slight drop in class. OPENING CEREMONY was a quirky sort for Amanda Perratt. I think She is a soft ground horse myself, she certainly flopped on her only start on ground like this but she should really find this far too sharp and fast on her first run for a new stable and she could easily need the run. I'd not be afraid of her. Much as I detest Alan Berry it would be misguided to rule out BON AMI Here as he does have a chance on the numbers and could be a bit of value. I also would not rule out SIR NORTHERNDANCER as although easily held by ZARZU on last time out Catterick form, he was given a noticeably quiet ride once beaten and he is a few lbs better off in the weights. His stable is not winning though and that's a problem. QUICK FLIGHT is short to me at 5/1 . She is a Filly . She is a 3 year old taking on older horses ( all 11 that have tried have failed in this race) , She has a 237 day absence and her stable cant find a winner and hasn't had one in 3 months. Game of opinions I suppose but in my very best Kevin Keegan voice "I'd Love it" if they had her in a match bet later. Horrible price for me despite her potential .

The Big Guns though look to be ZARZU and QUITO. There is no doubt that ZARZU Has a massive chance for Nigel Shields. He was a Former BBOD This year when placing at 11/1 for us. I fancied him at Catterick last time over this trip but he was just beaten under a length but still 5th after looking the winner. I think 7f is the absolute limits of his stamina and he just got outstayed that day. I fancy him strongly here today. Last time out was a FAR Better race with 18 runners and strength in depth. The 7th horse (Differential) has come out and won since as well. You only have to look at his previous race in Class B Company when 5th to Lygeton Lad. He raced against 13 horses with A.O.R.'s of 90.61 and yet today his highest opponents are rated 80 and 78. If he runs his race which to be fair to him he almost always does he is simply a Class apart from many of these. He is also well drawn and only has about 5 realistic dangers and this sharp track must be perfect for him as it is so sharp and suits high drawn horses. I think Shields went and thought about what track he would automatically get 7f at and he came with this one and I think this is a perfect race for him. He has faced far better quality on sand all through the winter and this is his easiest task. You can give QUITO a chance as well, he hasn't yet shown his best at this trip and ran a big race last time over 6f and again has a decent draw, but he would be happier at 6f . QUITO Has to be a big danger but he never starts as well as ZARZU and I don't think he would catch him if ZARZU Nips clear as I expect him to. That said, ZARZU Has once or twice looked as if he isn't the greatest of battlers so "Each Way" would be far safer, but I'm committed myself to THE CANINE BET and ZARZU is one of the 3 horses.

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Brighton 2.35 Betting Forecast: 100/30 Ball King, 11/2 Sussex Lad, 13/2 Jazzy Millennium, 7/1 Al Muallim, 9/1 Peregian, 10/1 Distant Scene, Sigwells Club Boy, 12/1 The Gay Fox, 14/1 Firework, Threat, 16/1 Lucefer, 20/1 Tricky Lady, 25/1 Euro Venture, Geespot, Theatre Lady, 33/1 Mr Whizz, On The Fairway, Present 'n Correct.

SUSSEX LAD is the Next of my 3 horses that I am betting in my " CANINE BET ". Quite what he is doing here in a seller beggars belief . Now this horse is a total dog and is so hard to win with which is why he has a poor strike rate of only 2 from 49 . There are other doubts, he is from a small stable that don't have many winners , he doesn't try very hard and he has cost punters plenty of the years . The fact he has a great draw in stall 1doesnt interest me as its likely to be irrelevant as he is a hold up horse . The fact that he hasn't a great record at 7 furlongs does not bother me much either as he has not had many try's on this ground and maybe this is what he wants . There has to be some reason for the 2 from 49 record. This is a Selling race with Rubbish against him mainly rated in the 40,s and 50,s . Last time he was hampered and given an EASY Time of it when beaten only 3 lengths by Fire Up The Band in a 10 Grand 0-90 Handicap where his 18 rivals were simply different Class and The race had A.O.R.'s of 75.27 . Now he can do his best not to win this race , and he probably will, but You can hand pick any number of his "D" and "C" Handicaps in the last couple of years and make a great case for the horse. This is a Class G Selling race . The Horse has never even lowered himself into Class F yet and this WILL be a confidence booster and at 5/1 He is a big price despite doubts about the trip which is only an extended 6 furlongs anyway.
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Brighton 5.05

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Byo, 9/2 James Stark, 13/2 Muqtadi, 7/1 Lay Down Sally, Mutasawwar, 8/1 White Ledger, 9/1 Jayanjay, Tomthevic, 16/1 African Spur, General Smith, 20/1 Run On, 40/1 Madame Roux.

JAMES STARK is probably the last horse in England you'd expect to win two races in succession . I Know his record is grim and that he pops up and wins a great race every few weeks and then never seems to win till weeks later , but he HAS actually won 2 on the trot before .JAMES STARK Has just won at Lingfield in Far Better Class than this ( Beat BYO easily) and now drops down into a lowly average Class E Sprint . On his day he is different class to these. ALL his form is in Class C (2 wins) and Class D (3 wins) and you have to go back to 2001 for the last time he lowered himself into Class E Company, which he won of course. He hasn't the best record in the world, but he is better than these. The Ground may be quick for him many will say but I'm not bothered about that and I'm Mr Paranoid about such things normally. His poor record has soiled his record on fast ground and I have seen him run many good races on fast ground. He is the Last Leg of THE CANINE BET today with his chance as good as the others, or as bad.
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