I'd planned a short message today to give me a head start for a "Stat" filled day tomorrow but looking at today the racing is fascinating. I fancy 4 horses but I confess I'm puzzled as to how to stake them. I've done my best but I'm wondering whether a small multiple is the best option. I,m keeping my stakes small as I was unable to do much study last night .
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Yesterdays Summary

I've had to reprimand myself. No Joy from the £150 spent in the Showcase Handicap yesterday. Blue Spinnaker ran his heart out and was only beaten a length but Unshakeable faded. In My analysis I said about the winner "This is 70/1 on Betfair and likely to be outclassed". In fact 100/1 was laid about the horse but I have given myself a real bollocking as that was such a lazy thing to say, and it has exposed me as cutting corners which you simply can not do. TERFEL the winner had a Low Draw which was favoured. He was Unplaced on his last start (which was crucial) and he was proven in both Class A and Class B like most of the past winners. In fact he was statistically perfect. Now I won't pretend for one minute that I would have backed him or tipped him but I should have pointed that out and it was sloppy, and I am so annoyed with myself for assuming that because he was 70/1 on Betfair that he had no chance. Betfair sometimes entices you to assume and lets you cut corners. The race was a Black mark for me personally but a magnificent triumph for the stats. You simply do not have all those Past winners running unplaced on their latest starts without there being a cast iron reason. They say that every loser teaches you something and yesterdays Moral has to be not to assume and cut corners. I've officially reprimanded myself. That said, it has got me "statted up" for tomorrow as I Have some decent historical trends for up to 4 races tomorrow and as soon as I get today's message out of the way, my next job is to write them up for you in tomorrow's message and I may just play in another Nursery and put my outstanding, but lucky reputation on the line in these vile races If the Stats give me something hard to work with.

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Personal Bets

1) Newmarket 2.40 SUSSEX + Saver on Muhaymin (Sussex is an "information" bet)

Perversely I am ignoring advice that I have been given and will only have a small interest bet on Muhaymin. Probably about £50 at 8/1.

2) Thirst 5.05 MARY JANE

I have to bet this at about 4/1 and am Looking at £75 Each Way

3) Bath 5.55 BEAUCHAMP RIBBON

This has More Flaws than Harrods but instinct tells me between £75 and £100

4) Bath 7.55 OH SO ROSIE

Probably £100 at a short price.


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Today's Racing


Newmarket 2.10

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Sussex, 5/1 Torinmoor, 6/1 Muhaymin, Southern Bazaar, 7/1 Alphecca, King Of Cashel, 10/1 Mouftari, 16/1 Major Effort, Rinjani, 20/1 Esti Ab, 25/1 Hazewind, 33/1 Lord Mayor, Watamu, 50/1 Peruvian Breeze, 100/1 Svenson.

This, without a doubt is a Red Hot Blistering Maiden race. Possibly the Hottest all year. Several Group horses and possibly a couple of 2 Group 1 horses in the race. SUSSEX has been given to me from Newmarket as "Top draw" and is the next "information" bet. The Message I had last night was simply and that was that SUSSEX is" Top Draw", certain to steam in the betting and to "Do the best you can" with it. Exciting yes, but dangerous for sure. Almost all of these are unraced and for sure some of them will be Group 1 prospects. The problem with "Information" is that the source has no idea about the ability of most of the other runners and he may well be shocked how good this race is.

The John Dunlop trained MUHAYMIN has some very significant factors in his favour. On Breeding stats alone this comes out as Dunlop's second best 2 year old in a season where Dunlop has supposedly got some "stars". News from Dunlop's via another source tells me that MUHAYMIN will "need" the race but that he is also top class and one of Dunlop's "top 4 stars" that he has. He could come there on the bridle and blow up but he could also win this easily as he is supposed to be Group 1 for certain and far better than Dunlop's recent winners including the horse that beat Akimbo on Saturday.

Stoute's ALPHECCA has significant entries (although I'm assuming that My Contact would have known about this horse and is in a position to say SUSSEX was better). There has been good money as well for SOUTHERN BAZAAR From Barry Hills yard. That is 6/1 in the Post and they wanted to bet him at 11/2 this morning on Betfair and for a Barry Hills unraced juvenile to be so strong in a race as hot as this , with horses as strongly fancied as Sussex is, then Southern Bazaar must have a very high reputation or be very good indeed. In the land of Whisper and Gossip the Currency is Assumption. (I just made that up. I don't think it works though.).

TORINMOOR Looks the other big runner and this is only a 4/1 chance but that's because it has an experience edge of the rest of them and has had a run. This is supposed to be Group Class as well. A Group horse with a fitness edge in a maiden must bring this one into play.

The Prospect of watching this race is salivating and I have been Masticating all morning working myself up for it.

Although my man says I should bet SUSSEX as it is "Top Draw" and I am going to sit this out with nothing more than a £50 "interest " bet on MUHAYMIN at about 8/1 although it is hard to justify to you, and the last thing I would do is try and put you off SUSSE. Call it instinct but that's the way I'm going in the race rightly or wrongly. I'm looking forward to this very much indeed and I don't feel a need to bet anything here. Just the Dunlop horse for me and I'll leave SUSSEX and see how he runs as the "information" bet. Don't let me put you off him. He's very good and may win and from the sound of it SUSSEX will be much closer to peak fitness today.

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Thirsk - MARY JANE 5.05


I have been waiting for this Mule. I am wondering why the Racing Post have chosen not to tell punters that MARY JANE has won this race in 2002 and 2001 and try's the hat trick today. That seems strange and it has been bothering me today. MARY JANE Looks to have been laid out for this. Her last run was 20 days ago and I think it is very significant that when she races WITHIN 7 Days of her last run she is 0 from 28. She has won 8 times when her absence has been over 1 week and before 4 weeks like today and She interests me a great deal here in a race that does favour Older horses in past running. In MM 1070 I Wrote "MARY JANE should really be peaking in the 3rd week of August when she will no doubt attempt to win the Apprentice race at Thirsk for the 3rd year in a row." Well we are here now and Kim Tinkler has done a Bunk (I'm not complaining) and the job is left to a Kid (P P Mathers) who has only ridden 8 winners. I hope he can do the horse justice today. MARY JANE Would be my best bet at Thirsk if she is around the 9/2 mark and I will bet her each way. She is knocking on a bit and has a bit of work to do from stall 5 but on her best form she looks different class.

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BATH 5.55 - BEAUCHAMP RIBBON

I Know this filly is as complicated as a Rubix Cube, but Erc Penser+ Gerard Butler + Bath + Step up in trip Makes me feel like I have Quasimodo in my head for the number of alarm bells that are ringing . I love the profile. Butler hasn't had a winner at Bath this year but he has had plenty before and this is his "job" track and I think it is significant that this filly steps up in distance. I watched her at Haydock when she disappointed and I must admit it was a poor run after she was heavily backed but I think all her problems manifested themselves from a slow start and she was hampered, forced wide and I think had she trapped better it may have been a different story. I Love Butler and I trust him. This is part instinct and for everything good I can tell you about this Filly I Can tell you two things negative about her but I want to be on her today. I think 7/2 could be a big price. I wont have any more than £100 on her , this is a little bit self indulgent and instinctive, and a little bit of a leap of faith based on my knowledge of how Gerard Butler works but I just think she will be worth it today.
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BATH 7.25 OH SO ROSIE

Anyway you look at this race; OH SO ROSIE has to be the best horse in the race. She won the equivalent of a Class B in Ireland last year yet none of her rivals have ever won a Class D race yet and collectively they are 0 from 46 in Class D races. This is only a Class F and although the fact she ran 2 days ago brings its own issues, there are other niggling issues. One is that a kid rides her for the first time having replaced a professional jockey, and another is the consideration that she is trading at above her Racing post price. It all makes up into a couple of demons especially as she is a short price, but getting 9lbs from Kristianstad she surely must be good enough to win this race.

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Postscripts

On Saturday we are going to subscribe to a Tipster who has a horse that I'm assured is a "steering job"!!!!!!!!!

I received a letter in the Post on Friday morning that PROMISED me a "STABLE MOLE STEERING JOB THIS SATURDAY ".
The letter was actually from a Postcode in my Local city centre. It urged me to ring a number and Call this evening to be given a horse that is according to them "Steering Job" on Saturday. They claim to be Racehorse owners and Racing Professionals and claim to have "spies and moles" within the Racing Industry. There is a smudged black and white picture of what looks like a Dead Mole in the top corner of the letter which I presume is a play on words. Cheap Paper and I've read better Grammar in the Readers Wives letters of certain upper market gentleman's magazines.

They go on to say "we are certainly going to provide you with Conclusive Proof of the Magnificent Quality of information at our disposal and we will start with a steering job this Saturday. In our opinion Saturday's race will be turned into an absolute procession!! If there is such a thing in racing as a good thing then this is it "Then they bore me with offering me a free 60 day trial which involves ringing a Premium Rate number everyday which naturally I won't be ringing.

What I thought we would do Tomorrow is access this so called "certainty" and see how it gets on. Just purely as a Bit of fun and interest.
Longer Term Members will remember that we did this once with another piece of unsolicited mail I received way back in September of 2001. That time I paid for a "tip" that was offered me from a mailing address in Yorkshire. To Our absolute amazement they gave us Trouble Mountain who won and landed a gamble from 10/1 to 11/2. Some of the old marines will remember that well. They may also remember that we followed that service through and monitored the next 20 bets that they gave us as an exercise to amuse ourselves and we ended up getting the next 20 Mel Collier bets. The "Yorkshire" outfit were ripping off Collier and rather than send their own bets they ponsed off Collier without his knowledge and just passed on all his bets to us (mainly all losers as well from memory). I will let you know what this apparent "Certainty" is in Tomorrow's Message!
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