Just Newcastle today which is hardly much choice for a Saturday. We are only 9 days into the season so perhaps it is too much to expect to get a second turf meeting. Sunday is no flat racing. Monday is the first day at the dreaded Windsor but I have a very strong bet lined up for Tuesday and I love the midweek meetings next week and am confident we can do business there.

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Account Bets

Newcastle 2.40 (16) Trousers

£5 Win

Take 14/1 +

I am hoping this is the last of my small bets on big priced horses . I am as fed up with them as you are but this is a decent profile (below) and he has got a good chance. The Stronger bets, will come just as soon as we know what is fit, and there is a strong bet on Tuesday. This is simply a good price bet on a horse that could easily win this, or get beaten by factors that cant be judged before the race. On Grand National Day its worth a silly bet as it can easily be recovered and if it wins it can pull back countless bets at similar stakes and prices, and with just Newcastle on I just have not had any kind of Choice today. Its worth a stab. I,m going to have something like £70 to nick a grand. My Dangers are Welsh Wind and Creskeld.

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Today's Racing

I am leaving Lingfield alone again. I just cant read the place. Today we are staying with NEWCASTLE. Much of the
work has been on the 2.40 Handicap and there is a big preview below I fancy TROUSERS a bit at 16/1.


3.45 Martell Cognac Grand National Chase Handicap (Class A) Grade 3 (6yo+) 4m4f

Betting Forecast: 9/1 Jurancon II, 10/1 Joss Naylor, 11/1 Bindaree, 12/1 Clan Royal, Davids Lad, Hedgehunter, 14/1
Amberleigh House, Bear On Board, 16/1 Shardam, 20/1 Monty's Pass, 25/1 Gunner Welburn, Le Coudray, Southern
Star, Takagi, Whats Up Boys, 33/1 Akarus, Artic Jack, Just In Debt, 40/1 Bounce Back, Exit To Wave, Lord
Atterbury, Tyneandthyneagain, 50/1 Ardent Scout, Kingsmark, Risk Accessor, Spot Thedifference, 66/1 Alexander
Banquet, Blowing Wind, Kelami, Royal Atalza, The Bunny Boiler, 100/1 Alcapone, 150/1 Puntal, Skycab, Smarty,
Wonder Weasel, 200/1 Bramblehill Duke, Luzcadou, Mantles Prince, Montreal.

Looks a particularly wide open National. I think the statistics are weak and I would treat them with utmost caution. The best start you can make is cross out every runner trading over 50/1 on Betfair and if you get done with a huge priced winner you will be very unlucky. I wont bore you with long streams of analysis in a race where most of us can change our mind every 30 minutes. I Like some of the stats but hate the others. I like the "dont bet 7 year olds" stat but I reject the "cant win with over 11st" stat and the Lincoln result is my evidence. I feel obliged to have a selection though. I want a bet in the race though, and having thought Long and Hard about it, I have decided that I am coming down on the side of MONTYS PASS for the following reasons.

1) Light Campaign
2) Won the race last year by 12 lengths and I think he would have still won with another 14lbs
3) I Like his preparation over a kind 2 miles when clearly too short a trip and not fit enough
4) He never falls and jumps well
5) He is the right age
6) The ground should be fine for him

Has to be an interest bet and he is my Main Fancy. My Dangers is TAKAGI and I have backed them both.

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The Opening handicaps at Newcastle are hard because they force you into making decisions about horses that you dont
know are fit. For example Haggis's ALNAJA in the opener could be different Class to these but how fit is he? In the
2.40 it is hard not to fancy ZILCH , But I know this horse and have backed him a couple of times and I know that
Michael Bell has always stated he is "best fresh" and I would not bank on him reproducing his last win at a short price.Haggis's FLOWERDRUM is also working well and fancied but race fitness on soft ground is his issue. Thats why I have stayed with the 2.40 and spent a bit of time on that race as I feel although more competitive it does at least offer horses that I can rule out with far more confidence than unexposed debutants that could be fit or not. Im staying with the 2.40


Newcastle 2.40 Cantorodds.co.uk Handicap (Class D) (3yo+, 0-80) 1m (1m3y)

Betting Forecast: 11/2 Creskeld, 7/1 Apache Point, 10/1 Lauro, Night Wolf, Torrid Kentavr, Welsh Wind, 12/1
Reap, True Night, 14/1 Goodbye Mr Bond, Harry Potter, Hula Ballew, Tagula Blue, Trousers, 16/1 Hov, 20/1
Megan's Magic, Shifty, 25/1 Commitment Lecture, Top Dirham, 33/1 Celtic Romance.


SELECTION - TROUSERS 14/1


The Rags

CELTIC ROMANCE 33/1- Has to be a 33/1 chance. Has shown no form since a 2 year old. Had a year off through
injury. Dandy Nicholls could not revitalise her last year and she is back with Mary Reveley now. She has a 278 day
absence to overcome and unless there is inspired market support she would be a most unlikely winner. It hasnt come.

COMMITMENT LECTURE 25/1-Another 4 year old filly with a long absence and thats not pleasant .At her very
best she could figure but she is a lightly framed type with a tongue strap and this must be too much for her today in my opinion. Shes 40/1 + on Betfair.

SHIFTY 25/1-Hard to fancy. Has been messed about with over middle distances but 0 from 12 in this class and some
of the races he has been beaten in have been embarrassingly weak. He also has a serious question mark on soft ground.
and his exchange price of 45/1 says it all.

The Negatives

TRUE NIGHT 12/1 - If you look at His wins they come in summertime with wins in June (1) July (2) and August (4) and that suggests he wont be at his best on his seasonal debut. If you look at his early races in the 2003 and 2002 season you see heavy defeats and unless he is trained differently this year (*no reason why he should be) he looks an unlikely winner. This is typical Dandy running them slowly into fitness and form and he cant win for me off Topweight on his seasonal debut. He is 12/1 in the paper but weak in the market and out to 16/1. Negative profile.

MEGAN'S MAGIC 20/1 -Another 4 year old filly stepping up in class and facing an absence. She looks a temperamental sort although talented but she makes limited appeal in this class. Her trainer rarely has many winners (9 from 287 runners in 3 years) and would not be the best stable to get involved with. All her form shows she is only proven
on fast ground and her sire stats indicate that ground might suit her better. Weak at 25/1 and not for me.

HARRY POTTER 14/1-Ex German horse, slightly mysterious and not much to go on. In Karl Burke's care now and after 2 poor runs on sand he suddenly found his form when 3rd in a Claimer at 50/1 after the application of a Visor. That
was only a Lingfield claimer though, and both the horses that beat him would struggle in Class D Turf handicaps and he did start 50/1 last time. Impossible to rule out with complete confidence but he doesnt look a Class D horse to me and he is another with Zero market confidence behind him.

HOV 16/1- Is probably a well handicapped horse off "75". He also loves soft ground and has been lightly raced because
his connections have deliberately avoided fast ground with him. Whether he has developed a problem or not is unclear.
He ended last year on grass very well with a good run at Haydock but went on the sand and ran very badly all 3 times as if he had a problem. His runs were spaced apart by several weeks break and it offers no encouragement for today. Again a market drifter underlines the concerns about him.

HULA BALLEW 14/1-Micheal Dodds 4 year old filly will handle the soft ground and does have a bit of improvement in
her but there has to be a doubt about her ability in this Class. She is 0 from 8 in Class E and 0 from 2 in Class D and she has only managed to win in Class F up to date. Her defeats in Class E races last year included weak 0-57 and 0-61 contests and when she won at Catterick in July it was only a 0-66. First time out in a 0-80 after a 185 day lay-off against older males does not look my idea of a solid bet. Correctly she has drifted from 14/1 to 30/1

TOP DIRHAM 25/1-First time out is not really the time to be on this. I think this is being laid out for the Carlisle Bell he won last year landing a massive gamble and a big bonus. I cant see this winning first time out without a major gamble.

The Possibles

TAGULA BLUE 14/1 - Won a Nottingham Class D handicap last season by 6 lengths on fast ground off "72" and starts
this year on an 8lbs higher mark. This horse looked a potentially decent handicapper in the making at about a mile at that stage but he cut no ice on his following 3 starts as he seemed to develop a nasty little habit of missing the break in each race. No he has had a winter off and he could win races this year and he is described as a horse that wants Soft ground. Jeremy Glover is a hard trainer to catch right. His horses are 1 from 28 here in the last 5 years but that does not tell you much. What interests me most about his profile is his absence. He has not ran in 158 days and for a horse whose long term aim is the Cambridgeshire it may be far too early in the year for him to show his form. It is also interesting that Glover has said in the past that "he tends to put on weight when he's not racing regularly" and when the horse ran after an
absence last year he was saying that he would Need the race. I think that holds today and I dont fancy him off "80" without a run.

LAURO 10/1- This is an interesting Julie Camacho 4 year old filly. Fillies have won this race before as have 4 year olds but I would prefer an older male horse for sure and the 189 day absence is another question mark over her chance. She has reasonably good handicap form but it is all against 3 year olds last year and she never met an older horse in her races. She is pitched in at her hardest test to date and on a career high mark. She just has not got the right profile for me and I cant be afraid of opposing her.

TORRID KENTAVR 10/1-I suspect this horse is having a run today and wont be at peak. This horse has never won
on his seasonal debut before and always finds his form later in the year. His wins have been in May (1) June (2), July (2) and September (2). There has also got to be the suspicion that he best in small fields and this 19 runner race wont help that need. I also think he is ready for a longer trip. He has no winning form at this trip and if you look at his career starts under 10 furlongs he is struggling without a win in 22 races.

REAP 12/1-Improved to win 4 races last year including 3 handicaps finally off 60. He also won a couple of races here over this trip but he did have significant draw advantages in both races and this is far harder than either of those contests. He is also 7lbs higher in the weights. He did not run that well last time either. I know this horse from the sand a couple of years ago, He has improved since then but my gut feeling is that he is a decent 0-70 handicapper who is just marginally out of His class in Class D. He did win a Newmarket Class D but that was only a 0-70 and I feel the 4 races he won last year were all inferior to this. I think he has been very well placed, and lucky with the draw on more than 1 occasion and off a Handicap mark he has never won from before he should find one too good for him.

APACHE POINT 7/1 -The big problem for him might be Stall 1. This is a particularly hard stall to win from .He is
however proven in big field. He has won after an absence before and on soft ground so he does have plenty going for
him. What concerns me is that I think he a) Needs further b) Lacks genuine 0-80 form. All 5 of his wins have been in
races where there was not 1 horse rated 70 in the field and aside from a selling win in 2001 they have all been at longer trips than this. From stall 1 and with Kim Tinkler on board I dont have much faith in his profile and he will probably need a lot of luck in running to win this.

GOODBYE MR BOND 14/1-Is quite a scopey type and He has at least won on Good to soft ground before. His form is simply below most of these and there has to be a Class issue having seen him beaten in several weak Class F contests.
He just lacks the class for me.


The Dangers

CRESKELD 11/2 - Well handicapped rated 15lbs lower than Sand handicap mark and will love soft ground. He also
ran in a hotter race on the sand at Wolverhampton last time (The Lincoln Trial) which was a 0-105 and he was a
creditable 3rd. The Doubt about him is that he may be simply a better horse on the sand. He has only won on grass off a mark of 65 in Class E Company and he is 7lbs higher today. I Rate CRESKELD in the Top 4 bets in this race.

NIGHT WOLF 10/1-Interesting Channon 4 year old who had a run at Lingfield 8 days ago after a 10 months absence in
a 0-75. He won a Class F handicap here by 5 lengths last summer and his Newmarket run when 5th to Emran is good
enough to win this as well. We backed Emran that day if you remember and it was good form. The big problem with
NIGHT WOLF is that he is unraced on any ground slower than good. We just dont know how he will handle the ground. He could be well handicapped and certainly has more improvement than many here but the ground is the doubt.

WELSH WIND 10/1-Might just have a very good draw in stall 18/19 and is certainly fit having had a busy sand season.
He is also quite well handicapped which is probably because he is a frustrating type that struggles to get his head in front. However, if you go back 12 months he started the 2003 season off 70 and ran 2nd at Ascot in a 0-78 handicap from what looked a bad draw. Assuming his draw today is a positive and not a negative, that run would be good enough to win this today considering he enters the 2004 season off just a mark of 59. He has good form over C+D, acts on the
ground, and he holds Reap and Hula Ballew on October 2003 form here. I give him a decent chance but to be honest he
did get beaten many times after his best run at Ascot in far weaker grade and I am put off by his poor record.


The Selection

TROUSERS 14/1

Many Positives about this horse , and 2 "Questions" for him to answer later.

1) Handicap Mark

The Main Reason why I want to risk him at 14/1 is his Handicap Mark of 55 . That has to be a potential Joke. He could be chucked in here. He was handicapped on grass and was given a low rating yet his improvement and wins have come on Sand. Whilst he is rated 72 on the all-weather he is allowed to race here off only 55 today. That makes him Very well handicapped IF he is as good on turf as he is on sand.

What I like about him, is that the maiden he won last October at Lingfield was when a 4 year old giving weight for age away to 3 year olds and thats very hard to do. It was also a decent time figure that day. Bearing in mind that the Handicapper gave him a GRASS Handicap mark of only 55 , at Lingfield he beat a Gerard Butler horse(Annishirani) who came out and won a maiden and then a handicap off "70". That day TROUSERS beat him easily and gave him 8lbs. Maiden form is not always reliable though to cross reference with handicap form, that has to be said but 55 is the rating of a selling plater , Not the sort of rating you give to a horse giving 8lbs and a comfortable beating to a "70" winning handicapper like Annishirani.

After that Maiden win he came out under Topweight and run 3rd in a 0-72 dropping back to 7f at Lingfield and that also entitles him for consideration here. This is after all only a 0-80 and although only 3rd he was only beaten in a triple photo off a 17lbs higher mark than he races off today. He Moved up next time to a Mile but he did not have the best of draws and tried to make all the running and he set the race up for the closers (as usually happens there). That was off a mark of 74 and thats 19lbs higher in the handicap than he races from today. He then had a break.

His last run (Just 8 days ago) was reasonable under the circumstances as he was entitled to need the race after almost 4 months off the track .He was beaten 7 lengths into 7th place in a 0-74 handicap. Now Night Wolf beat him 4 lengths that day. Today TROUSERS is 20lbs better off for those 4 lengths with Night Shot and is sure to improve for the race. It is bemusing why Night Shot is a 10/1 chance and TROUSERS a 16/1 chance. Why should he not be better on grass anyway ? Pivotal his sire has far superior stats on Turf than sand and he i simply bred for grass.

2) Fitness

His race just 8 days ago will have put a Fitness edge on him. This is after all a stiff Mile on soft ground. It is possible to Win this race when unraced this year as Tedstale did last year , but its not easy. The Only statistical test is that in the last 18 years there have been 12 Handicaps in March or April at this track over a Mile. 7 of those 12 races were won by horses that had raced in the previous 2 weeks prior to the race. It cant be a negative and it just may be crucial.

3) Stableform

Andrew Reid has had over twice as many recent winners than any other stable in the race in the last 2 weeks. Andrew
Reid has his stable in scintillating form. In the last 2 weeks he has had 5 winners at 11/4 8/1 6/1 7/4 and 9/2 and they are running out of their skins at the moment. At this time of year this is very important.


4) Other Positives

He is lightly raced and has improvement in him that could see him progress even further past what I consider to be a Joke handicap mark. One thing for sure is that he does stay this trip. He was 2nd at Goodwood last year over 9f (which is 12 seconds slower to run than this trip) so he has no stamina doubts. He also has a good jockey on board in George Duffied, he is fine as a 5 year old , and he has scope for improvement. He is also very neatly bred. He Is a lightly raced son of Pivotal , a top class sire and not just with handicappers. There could be far more to come from this horse, and even if he only runs to his sand mark then he will go close in this race off a mere mark of 55.

The Doubts

Draw and Ground

There is always a price or two that you pay for your big price and at 16/1 we have to accept that . One of those prices might be his draw in stall 4. That might be a problem. We just dont know at this stage. Many will tell you that High numbers are favoured. For me you can line up every Expert and Self claimed expert in the game and ask them what the draw bias is and they will be wrong half the time. They were at Doncaster last week. Its not a game you can predict well. I watched last years renewal. Numbers split from 1-8 on the Far side and split 9-18 on the near side. I can tell you that The lowest 6 stalls had horses at huge prices and only 2 fancied runners over there and Yorker had the race in the bag from a low draw had he not failed to stay. There was not the draw advantage that the result suggested. There have been countless horses that have won Mile handicaps here from low draws. After all the 2002 renewal of this race had a stall finish of 9-8-1 and I just dont think you can assume anything. Put it this way, I would not swop my 17lbs lower handicap rating for a high draw today in a month on sundays.

The next problem might be the ground. It is true that He is unraced on Soft Ground. That "Might" be a problem, but we
just dont know. Just because he has never raced on soft ground does not mean he wont act on it, or even improve for it or relish it. After all he is superbly bred out of Pivotal (who never had the chance to race on soft ground) but who has sired many good horses that acted on soft ground and the Dam acted well on soft ground. This might actually be his best surface. In fact I would predict that he is far more likely to appreciate it than fast ground. The stats confirm this.This is a tough , big field handicap, and he could be undone by the Ground or his draw, but for a horse that is probably capable of running and winning at Lingfield off 68-72 in a handicap, to be given a low rating of 55 today when race fit and from a stable in form , and offered at 16/1 I think he has to be value today.