No Bets Today. I have had a good look at the day but it is
so hard its almost easy !

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Today's Racing

Chester1:55 Joseph Heler Cheshire Cheese Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (Class B) (2yo) 5f (5f16y)

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Dance Night, 5/1 Beaver Patrol, Canton, 7/1 Tara Tara, 8/1 Mitchelland, 9/1 Westbrook Blue, 10/1 Sapphire

Dream, 16/1 Monashee Prince, 25/1 I'm Aimee, King After.

Selection - Beaver Partol Each Way or Place Only

I think this is down to about 3/4 runners and would only consider a small each way bet or a "Place only" bet in the race on BEAVER

PATROL . Obvioulsy the record of Richard Hannon ( 5 wins from 8 runners) stands close inspection and automatically draws you to

CANTON AT 5/1 Whereas Race Favourite DANCE NIGHT comes from a stable (Mc Mahon) that has a 0 from 6 record here. I

wouldnt worry too much about Mc Mahons record. I dont see that as important.

Looking at what you can rule out with confidence you can only probably rule out the maiden I'M AIMEE (over-exposed) and KING

AFTER (needs fast ground). MONASHEE PRINCE looks outclassed. TARA TARA 7/1 is drawn in stall 9 and WESTBROOK

BLUE 9/1 in stall 10 and whenever there has been horses Drawn 9 or higher in this race they have never come in the First 4 places.

That has to be a negative sign.

MITCHELLAND has drifted out to 12/1 but thats a big price and I would not want to lay it . She has to be respected . I wonder

whether She will be as fit as many (32 days absence) in this race but her trainer states she is "working very well" in the Paper today.

She was behind Dance Night and Westbrook Blue in the Brocklesby but a lot can happen in 32 days with this age group. Another

statistic that I have subsequently found is that no horse Foaled in May (Younger than earlier foals) has even won this race before, and

although not a great sample size I feel that counts against MITCHELLAND. She is the youngest horse in this race. Whether that

statistic is worth the paper I havent written it on or not is hard to say. All I know is that if you argued that she was the value at 12/1 I

wouldnt be able to put up many arguments against it. Stall 4 has to bring her into it.

The issue with CANTON 5/1 May be the DRAW he has. 10 of the Last 11 winners drawn 5 or under and he has Stall 6. Hardly

impossible to win from there though and he is respected. I am happy to oppose CANTON 5/1 despite Hannons record. After all the

form of his Lingfield win has been let down by the 2nd and 3rd, He is also only a small horse, the draw isnt helpful, and most winners

had only 1 previous race. He has had 2 races already and may not have the improvement of many, and its interesting that None of

Hannons previous 5 winners had ran more than once so he is not the typical Hannon winner. He does have a chance though and I

would not want to lay him. You can only split horses in races like these through innuendo and assumption at times. I dont fancy him.

I didnt think SAPPHIRE DREAM did anything wrong on her debut (the 3rd has come out an won well since) , and the fact she has

been backed on the exchanges from 10/1 to 13/2 can only be a positive as can the fact she is a Filly . Alan Bailey may be technically

"out of form" but a couple have run well lately and its been years since he had a 1st-time-out juvenile so plenty of improvement is

assured. You could argue that she isnt perfectly bred but there has only been one offspring of Mind Games run in this race and she

won in 2000 and I like her and understand why she is being backed. She hasnt "Done the numbers" though which is something the

selection has.

BEAVER PATROL 9/2 won nicely at Windsor and is very highly regarded by his trainer who passes on strong confidence for his

chance today. This horse is fancied strongly to win by the trainer.He Tops the numbers, looked quite attractive on tape last time and

looks sure to improve and stall 3 wont hurt him either. He looks the "professional" each way bet in the race. What I dont like about

him is that there is so much stamina on the Dams side and he may now want a longer trip and might be forced to sit and wait behind a

wall of horses if he Flops the Break as he did at Windsor .If he does that here from stall 3 he could have traffic problems. I would

expect him to at least run on for a place though and he could quite easily win.

DANCE NIGHT was the moral victor of the Brocklesby as he had a very bad draw and was forced to race away from the rail and

his win at Beverley confirmed that he was usefull and that he handles soft ground. If he can break well he has a favourites chance but

he will need to break. He is the horse with the least negatives. I would just rather take BEAVER PATROL at 2 points bigger price

and with the option of betting him each way.

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Chester 2:25 Letheby & Christopher Cheshire Oaks (Class A) (Listed Race) (Fillies) (3yo) 1m3½f (1m3f79y)

Betting Forecast: 100/30 Menhoubah, 9/2 Crystal Curling, 5/1 Deraasaat, 6/1 Ithaca, Proud Tradition, 8/1 Qasirah, 10/1 Si Si

Amiga, 12/1 Alexander Duchess, 16/1 Hidden Hope.

Well I havent got a clue here to be honest and nor has the market. So much will depend on how soft the ground is. We have a pretty

powerful stat ( The last 11 winners all Lost their last race as juveniles) to go to bat with, but the alternatives are thin on the ground this

year and those we do have want faster ground and that might be the death of that particular stat.

The interesting stat is that The last 11 winners all Lost their last race as juveniles. This might be because they were highly tried and ran

in hot races like the May Hill, Prix Marcel Bousac and the Rockfell. There have been several horses that were beaten in their only

maidens as 2 year olds who were bred to be better 3 year olds. Horses that won as 2 year olds may have moved into different areas

such as trials for the 1000 Guineas. If they had the pace to win as juveniles , they may not have the stamina to win in May over 11f +.

Thats all conjecture though but 11/11 is a poweful stat. That said, the main reason why that race may Fail , is a saturation of horses

that have won their last race as juveniles and we certainly have that. The horses in this race that Did win as Juveniles, (and therefore

Fail the stats) are ALEXANDRA DUCHESS 12/1, CRYSTAL CURLING 9/2 , DERAASAAT 5/1 , MENHOUBAH 100/30,

PROUD TRADITION 6/1 and SI SI AMIGA 101.

Its pretty clear that MENHOUBAH is far too exposed now anyway and I am surprised that She was put in as favourite but not

surprised she has drifted badly from 100/30 to 7/1 . I would not want to be with DERAASAAT from Ed Dunlops if the rains have got

into the ground as she wants fast ground according to Ed Dunlop and the rain must have hurt her. Her chance decreases with every

drop of rain but we wont know how soft it is until racing starts.

Barry Hills is always Respected here but both his CRYSTAL CURLING and SI SI AMIGA fail the stats although from the pair you

have to prefer CRYSTAL CURLING whose Dam won a Lancashire Oaks. People get a bit too excited about Barry Hills runners

here. They are overbet and if you bet them all you would be hurting .

ALEXANDRA DUCHESS wants faster ground. She is bred to stay this trip well enough and ran well in an Irish 1000g trial last time.

If she gets her ground she cant be dismissed but what price fast ground ? .I cant have HIDDEN HOPE on his Windsor run and he

looks rejected by Daryl Holland.

PROUD TRADITION is bred to stay well and comes here after winning her only 2 year old race. Thats a "stat-failer" though and I

suspect that she is running here only because she is part owned by the late Robert Sangster. She missed the Pretty Polly and that may

be a mistake and Gosden has never ran his best fillys in this race and both his runners were well beaten in past years . She only won a

false looking maiden that was ran in a muddle. One horse that passes the stats is QASIRAH form Michael Jarvis's . She started

favourite for the May Hill last year but was beaten by the rain softened ground according to her trainer and that may be her undoing

today. She ought to stay but it wouldnt be certain but she hardly looks progressive at the moment.

Henry Cecil's ITHACA lacks scope and may find others improve past her although its fair to say that she was racing at the wrong trip

last time out . My Biggest problem with her is that she will hate the soft ground if it is genuinely soft. She also needs to settle. It does

not bother me that she is not in the Oaks like many of these are. I have seen many trials won by non-classic entered horses.

My Gut feeling is that my most powerful stat " Must not have won as a juvenile" will be proved vulnerable if the ground is soft as that

would hurt Qasirah, Deraasaat and Ithaca. I refuse to bet horses on ground I dont think they will like just because they are the stats

picks and I have no idea who will win this race. Its wide open. If the ground had been fast I would have fancied ITHACA but I dont

think it will be. Maybe a few outsiders in some small forecasts is the answer because this is impossible to call. I'm baffled by the race

as I dont genuinely know the conditions. The stats are not much help and if you know the winner your a better man than me.

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Chester 2:55 totesport Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class B) (4yo+) 2m2½f (2m2f147y)


Betting Forecast: 11/4 Anak Pekan, 11/2 Big Moment, 7/1 Distant Prospect, 10/1 Ponderon, Rahwaan, 12/1 Numitas, Random

Quest, 16/1 Gralmano, Kristensen, Misternando, 20/1 Rayshan, Swing Wing, 25/1 Almizan, Collier Hill, Gracilis, Mana

D'Argent, 33/1 Archduke Ferdinand.

I am having 2 bets here. A Small bet on RAHWAAN at 14/1 and a Match bet on Distant Prospect to beat Big Moment.

The Statistics here are Pretty strong for horses that ran in the last 14 days.Only 1 from 69 has achieved this and that was 13 years ago

and that rules out MISTERNANDO , SWING WING , MANA D'ARGENT and KRISTENSEN. The other "A" rated statistic

about the poor record of Aprrentices allows us to ignore GRACILLIS. Horses aged 8 and over have a 0/27 record and only a 1/24

record placed so that kicks out GRALMANO as well. This isnt actually as open a race as it looks on Paper. There are multiple

runners that are 50/1 and over on the exchanges and that can probably be ignored. COLLIER HILL fails the "Stamina" stats.
This looks down to 7 possible winners. These are Big Moment , Distant Prospect , Random Quest , Numitas , Rahwaan , Anak

Pekan and Ponderon and they are in no particular order.

It is not hard to see ANAK PEKAN running well . Hacked up in the Queens Prize and well drawn but I cant think he can be any

value in a race that demands so much luck at about 3/1 and Newmarket Raiders have a poor record in this race (1/46) which is worth

thinking about as many were shortish prices. I am not sold on that statistic but its there now . The Queens Prize form may not be that

good and might just be overrated. Either way at his current price he is dreadfully short for me in a race that always needs at least some

luck in running . The Big " Market Dangers" to the favourite are BIG MOMENT and DISTANT PROSPECT .

I dont want to bore you with multiple profiles and opinions but I am firmly in the Andrew Balding camp and he has laid DISTANT

PROSPECT out for the race and the ground has come right for him. DISTANT PROSPECT has twice been beaten in this race off

similar marks, but both times were on very fast ground and he has finally got some help from the Handicapper. Andrew Balding had

his first winner yesterday and he is too good a trainer not to have winners flowing any day now. I think you can assume that Balding

will have the horse at his best . I think he is the best horse in the race at the weights and I rate him a far more serious danger than BIG

MOMENT whose stable are also pretty quiet at the moment. I hope the betting stats as it does as I will be able to have a match bet

on DISTANT PROSPECT to beat BIG MOMENT without giving him a start . There should not be much in it but I am told there is a

lack of confidence in the Amanda Perratt stable runner at the moment and I havent been too impressed with him over hurdles. I also

have the draw in my favour and the fact he was trained for Cheltenham this year instead of Chester last year. PONDERON has a

serious chance if it is soft ground. He wouldnt win without cut in the ground and I respect his chance, but given a choice I would want

an older horse anyway. For the selection though , much as I respect and fear Distant Prospect I have to side with RAHWAAN from

Chris Fairhursts stable

Two memories stick out for me with this horse. Firstly I remember him running 4th in last years race off "85". That was a good run on

fast ground, and Chris Fairhurst stated that he was a week short of work last year and blew up and needed the race. My second

memory of him was a sickening one when he beat my bet Vicars Destiny at 9/1 at Doncaster on March 26th . That hurt , and although

given a Brilliant ride that day by J Murtagh it was still a great effort from this horse. He had a crippling weight of 9st 12lbs to

overcome that day, which was a stat-buster. In that Doncaster race all 33 horses that carried over 9st 8lbs had been beaten and

hardly any had placed and yet RAHWAAN defied that statistic and in light of some very bullish comments after the race by

connections it is clear that he is a serious horse. What was also interesting is that when he sickened me at Doncaster it was the first

winner his yard had had for months, and the stable never get firing in March and had not had a winner in that month in years.

This horse is no mug .He was only beaten 3 lengths last year in the Northumberland Plate and he has always been highly regarded. He

has an appealing 8st 3lbs, and he passes all the neccesary stamina requirements. For the final argument about his chance you can read

his trainers comments this week. Fairhurst states " He was 4th in last years race when a week short of work and he would have won

had we had him in his current form . We purposely brought him back before Christmas to get him ready for this race and he won his

prep race at Doncaster. Everything is spot on and he has not missed a piece of work . He is a better and stronger horse this year and

if he gets across from his high draw he will definately be in the 1-2-3-4 and it will take a good one to beat him ".

Of course stall 13 might be a problem, but the 1999 winner came from that stall and this looks the weakest Chester Cup I have seen

for a while and at 14/1 he has to be worth a nibble to acompany my match bet on Distant Prospect to beat Big Moment.


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Chester 3:30 Tess Graham Memorial Handicap (Class C) (3yo,0-90) 6f (6f18y)

Betting Forecast:7/2 Fun To Ride, 5/1 Benbaun, 7/1 Presto Shinko, 8/1 Instant Recall, 10/1 Go Yellow, Piccolo Prince, 12/1 Ace

Club, Lake Garda, Sessay, 14/1 Commando Scott, 20/1 Bo McGinty, 25/1 Bertocelli, La Vie Est Belle, Ticero, 33/1 Catch The

Wind.

What you have here, is a Favourite FUN TO RIDE that has many serious statistical problems, but a favourite who was so impressive

last time, and looked so good that he may well defy those statistics. He has been hammered in the betting down to under 9/4 and

thats short enough for saying he has 5 questions to answer. I dont believe in being a slave to the stats just for the sake of it and I was

very impressed with FUN TO RIDES latest start. More about him later. The statistics clearly point to horses that have

a) Had a run this year and
b) Have less than 9st in weight and the Shortlist , if applied, comes down to

TICERO , COMMANDER SCOTT , PRESTO SHINKO , INSTANT RECALL , LA VIE EST BELLE , GO YELLOW ,

SESSAY and PICCOLO PRINCE.

Fillies have made up 32% of the total runners in this race over the years and have got a 2 from 52 record so I would be worried about

siding with a Filly. I dont want LA VIE EST BELLE for this reason and she is also only running as her owners live near Chester.

TICERO wants Fast Ground according to his trainer . I have to question whether ACE CLUB will have the experience. First of all he

is a seasonal debutant , and Stall 12 is hardly the best draw in the world , and having only had 2 previous races he is inexperienced. If

you look at every horse that had less than 4 previous races in this race they are 0/13 and he has had only 2 races. For what he is being

asked to do I couldnt have him. CATCH THE WIND is drawn 16 of 16 and thats so hard to overcome. I quite liked Alan Berrry's
COMMANDER SCOTT at Thirsk . He did his best to lose the race after being badly hampered but in the end did it the hard way. I

just feel his draw could prove problematic here and Alan Berry is not my kind of trainer. I dont feel the handicapper has taken any

chances with him off 78. I cant have BO MCGINTY as Richard Faheys first runner back after he was forced to shut his yard for a

Herpes outbreak. SESSAY just has not done enough for me and should be outclassed. GO YELLOW has a better chance than the

30/1 + quotes about him suggest but he is hard to fancy.

This should concern only runners. These are Fun To Ride , Benbaun , Lake Garda , Presto Shinko, Instant Recall and Piccolo Prince.

I respect PRESTO SHINKO but the draw isnt great, Hannon is 0/9 in this race, he looks hard to place and a Maiden is not the best

race from which to come here from and despite the Champion jockey he isnt for me.

FUN TO RIDE the 7/2 favourite , will attract many people despite topweight after winning a Newmarket Maiden impressivly in April

in what people say was a fast time. I must admit she did look pretty impressive as well and she is very fanciable. She does have at

least 5 significant doubts though that undermins her chance.

a) She is a Filly (2 from 52)
b) She has Topweight (They can win but all the evidence points to lighter weights having a better record)
c) She is inexperienced- She has ran only 3 times and no horse has won (from 13) when so lightly raced before.
d) She comes from a maiden - Horses that have tried that in this race are only 1 from 25
e) She is rated 90- No horse rated higher than 83 has won this in recent years

These are poweful stats and I have to follow them and oppose her despite how good she looked. The fact she is 2/1 now and not 7/2

does make it easier to oppose her. BENBAUN 6/1 is another high weight and another being strongly backed. I cant have him myself.

It is not so much the weight. After all Dean Corby does take 3lbs off his back. Its more to do with the fact that Mark Wallace said

earlier in the year that "he must have fast ground". He ran 4 days ago which will attract many punters but the fact remains that horses

racing in this race within a week are 0/12 and whilst that isnt the strongest stat I think he is poor value much as he is a fast horse. If I

am being forced to ignore decent weight stats, then at a push I might ignore them for the favourite but I dont feel like I can ignore them

for BENBAUN especially as Mark Wallace has been saying for some time that he was not well handicapped.

INSTANT RECALL dissapointed last time out. Daryl Holland said he ran "Too free". I dont buy that. I dont think he was busy that

day. Holland still wants to ride him today. I think he is good enough to win from "78" and rate him as a danger. He might not like the

track though and he is still very inexperienced. The only horse to have won this with 3 previous runs was Bishops Court and he won a

handicap a year later off a 25lbs higher mark and won Group races so he was well treated when winning and I think he might not have

the neccesary experience. He has a chance but I cant see enough positives to select him.

I like PICCOLO PRINCE a lot and think his Haydock run might produce the winner of this race. He was runner-up behind 3 length

winner Foursquare and he finished just ahead of LAKE GARDA . When you consiser that Foursquare is favourite for a 0-100 today

off "92" and PICCOLO PRINCE has only "68" he appears well handicapped. He was getting 17lbs that day and these things are

rarely scientific but he cant be badly handicapped for me. His Draw (10) isnt great but what worries me the most is that he is very

exposed and no horse has won this race having having had 13 previous races since 1995 and if you look at the record of horses in this

race that have had 9 starts or more they are only 2 from 69. I just feel he might be a bit exposed. Therefore , for the selection I am

siding with LAKE GARDA at 12/1 despite the fact that he is just a couple of pounds above the right statistical weight range.

I Like LAKE GARDA . He was staying on at Haydock and looked ready to win for me over an inadequate 5f. He is rated "85"

which is higher than any previous winner but only by a couple of lbs and he does have the plum draw in stall 1. That has to

compensate as does his 12/1 price . He wouldnt be the best handicapped horse in the race but he is still quite lightly raced and he will

love the soft ground. Sometimes in this sort of race certain pieces of form can be strong and produce the 1-2 and it would not suprise

me if LAKE GARDA and PICCOLO PRINCE fought this out having been 2nd and 3rd last time at Haydock. That would be a near

100/1 forecast and thats worth a Nicker of anyones money. Its LAKE GARDA for me at 12/1. I fear the favourite but shes dead

statistically and whilst I wouldnt rule her out from busting the stats the short price steers me to LAKE GARDA .

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Chester 4:40 David M. Robinson Diamond Design Handicap (Class C) (3yo,0-100) 5f (5f16y)

Betting Forecast: 9/2 Foursquare, 5/1 Moss Vale, 6/1 Johnny Parkes, 7/1 Harry Up, 8/1 Green Manalishi, 10/1 Incise, 14/1

Demolition Molly, Tribute, 16/1 Divine Spirit, Sir Ernest, Wanchai Lad, 20/1 Cheeky Chi, Local Poet, 25/1 Embassy Lord,

Jadan.

The that the record of horses under 8st is very poor could easily be best ignored. There is a strange weight frame to this race witha 5lbs gap between the two top weighted horses yet the bottom 6 horses have only 2lbs between them. I would ignore that stat. Anything under 8st should be fine although I dont fancy the bottom 2 runners.

Staying with the Weight Statistics, the very top weights have pretty difficult tasks in their own rights and MOSS VALE 5/1 with Topweight is going to have to be very good to concede weigh to the whole field and I would look elsewhere for the winner and feel the same about the badly drawn 2nd Topweight Local Poet .The big issue here is the Ground. So many of these have questionable profiles or records on Soft ground, and I think it will be soft .JOHNNY PARKES was impressive in a bad race on his debut, but he did have better form as a juvenile. He will have to be at his best to win this, but the same can said of everything. I worry about him on soft ground. but it might not be that . I dont like WANCHAI LAD . He has changed stables over the winter when trained by Alan Jarvis who felt he would stay a mile. This might be too sharp , and a prep race. TRIBUTE looks up against it from his draw, his absence and on ground he may not want. INCISE has a sexy profile. There is nothing wrong with her being a Filly and Brian Meeham has a 3, 12, 4, W, 4 , 4 record from just 6 runners in this race, She is a fast ground filly according to het trainer though and she might not find conditions suitable today. I really like GREEN MANALISHI but He wants fast ground and he isnt going to get it .in my opinion. I would not rule out DEMOLITION MOLLY either after a return to form win last time out and a lightweight.

Favourite FOURSQUARE (Favs have a bad record but I dont see that as relevant) won very well at Haydock making all when "not

ready" according to his trainer. He also has a reasonable draw and he has a good chance. He is moving up in class and has more on

his plate today but at least he acts on any rain softened ground and falls into the right weight statistic. He has a chance. I have to prefer HARRY UP after an excellent 2nd in the Field Marshall Stakes. The 1994 winner ran in that and won this and there is nothing wrong with his draw (1) or Weight (8st 11lbs). The horse that beat him is in the Golden Jubilee (Group1) at Ascot and the horse in 3rd at Haydock has come out and ran very well in a Listed race. That said he is now 9/2 from 7/1 and much value has gone from his price.

I think HARRY UP has the best credentials in an open race.

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Chester 5:15 Weatherbys Bank Maiden Stakes (Class D) (Div II) (2yo) 5f (5f16y)

Betting Forecast: 11/8 Alpaga Le Jomage, 5/1 On The Waterline, 11/2 Theatre Of Dreams, 6/1 Tiviski, 9/1 Next Time, 14/1 Sharp

N Frosty, 16/1 Piper Lily, 25/1 Mytton's Dream, 50/1 Gloria Nimbus.

I Think ALPAGA LE JOMAGE is a good thing assuming the ground doesnt beat him. He has ran well on soft ground last time so he

should be fine . He has been unlucky to run into 2 decent 2 year olds and this is his easiest race and he should make amends. I would

be reasonably confident that his biggest danger is THEATRE OF DREAMS. I wouldnt put anyone off betting the favourite , and

betting the danger Place Only at about 1.6 as it would be a big shock to lose on both bets. Video Analysis leans me to THEATRE

OF DREAMS over the horses that beat him at Doncaster, TIVISKI , who is surely crying out for further by now and NEXT TIME

who is a sprinter. Both TIVISKI and NEXT TIME went on from Doncaster to run 4th and 5th in another maiden and I think the fact

that THEATRE OF DREAMS was backed from 20/1 to 8/1 at Doncaster and had them both beaten until getting tired having to run

in the middle of the course, is sure to come on a lot for the race. I respect ON THE WATERLINE but I cant see past the Fav.

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