Today I am just concentrating on Tomorrow's Tote Jackpot Handicap (Ascot 3.35)
and although a hard handicap, a race I feel confident enough about to stake an Account
Bet on. Full preview below.

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Account Bet (Ante Post runs Tomorrow)

Ascot 3.35

(13) FREE TRIP

£20 Win

10/1 Ladbrokes, 9/1 Skybet , William Hill, Paddy Power, Tote Sport
8/1 Stanley , Bet 365 , Stan James,V.Chandler

Bet the horse today. Take 8/1 or over.

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Ascot 3.35 Totejackpot On Saturday Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (B1) (3yo+) 7f

Funfair 5/1 , Ettrick Water 11/2 ,Royal Storm 7/1 , Boston Lodge 10/1 , Free Trip 10/1 , Mine 12/1, Material Witness 14/1 , Traytonic
14/1 , Millenium Force 16/1 , Greenslades 16/1 , Kehaar 16/1 , Naahy 20/1 , Umhoomagoo 25/1 , Grizedale 25/1 , Red Romeo 25/1 ,
Bahiano 33/1.

( Reserve Runners = Kool , Master Robbie)

There are some Good statistics that might allow us to find an edge in this race and Strike before the Ante Post Market closes. With the
Reserves , there should be 16 runners and 4 places and what looks an open handicap can soon be whittled dowm to a small group despite this race having been responsible for several shocks in its recent History. (We are going back to the 16 renewals since 1986 for the stats) .

There have been several shocks. In fact 9 of the 16 winners started 12/1 or more and 7 of the 16 winners started 20/1 or more and with
only 1 Favourite winning from the 19 that were either Fav or Joint Favs, its clear we should not be too worried about prices.

The First Angle is AGE as this race has been dominated by Horses aged 3, 4 and 5 year olds

Horses aged 3 are 7 from 131
Horses aged 4 are 6 from 125
Horses aged 5 are 3 from 54
Horses aged 6 are 0 from 42
Horses aged 7 are 0 from 12
Others are 0 from 5

Thats 59 Horses aged 6 and over that were beaten in this race . That Rules out MINE 12/1 , MILLENIUM FORCE 12/1 , MATERIAL
WITNESS 14/1 and UHOOMAGOO 25/1, and its not hard to imagine that at least 1 of the younger horses can improve past these older
types . These horses do Fail other stats as well which I will refer to later in the analysis , but I am comfortable about swerving these older horses. After all MINE 12/1 is 3lbs higher than his highest ever winning Mark. MATERIAL WITNESS has never won within 5lbs or his
mark. UHOOMAGOO is 9lbs higher than his best ever winning mark , and I feel its Unlikely that these 3 horses will be able to achieve
something they have never shown capable of before, in light of the fact this race is usually won by light weighted improvers and younger
types. MILENIUM FORCE is a Class Runner and has won a Group 3 , but he hasnt had the best, or traditional preperation for this race.
He did win this in 2002 but that was from a 20lbs lower mark. He also Fails the Absence Statistic that says Only 1 horses from 56 that tried won this when racing within a week. Only 1 winner from 56 that attempted to win this is a pretty poor strike rate, And the only winner was WHITE HEART (1998) for Mark Johnston who then went on and won a listed race, a Group 3 race and then a Grade 1 race race in America proving his undoubted class. I dont see MILLENUIM FORCE doing that this year , especially as he was racing in France only last Saturday .


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WEIGHT

Weight is the Next Strongest Angle and the Statistics say that you need to Stay with horses that carried less than 9st 5lbs.

Weight - Horses with 9st 5lbs or more struggled and were just 1 from 65

Thats a Pretty Grim statistic for High Weighted horses. What convinces me about the strength of this statistic , is two important factors.

a) That sole winner was Decorated Hero in 1996 who was a Group 2 horse in a handicap. He went on and won 3 listed raced, 4 Group 3
races and 2 x Group 2 races so you can excuse him as being totally exceptional to the rule.

b) If you look at the 65 horses that failed this stat , Not one of them managed to come 2nd in this race. Its not as if several Topweights were beaten in photo finishes. They just havent been competetive and only about 6 of the 65 managed to finish in the 1-2-3-4.

It isnt about Horses "Not being able to carry the weight" . This task isnt the problem. Its about the horses at the top of the handicap there because they deserve to be , and the handicapper has almost entirely caught up with them and had the time to rate them properly, and these types are fast running out of improvement and are vulnerable to younger improving types that are "coming of age". Thats Why I feel we should rule out horses at the Top of the weights. Some of these have already been "rejected" through their Age anyway.

The horses that Fail this stat are MINE , NAAHY , MILENUIM FORCE , MATERIAL WITNESS , ROYAL STORM and the well
fancied FUNFAIR (5/1) . FUNFAIR has 9st 5lbs and has Fallon on board, and it would be Foolish to rule him out solely on this statistic ,
as had he had 1lb less he wouldnt have failed the Statistic. However I am still keeping FUNFAIR in the "rejections" list as he does fail
another statistic later on thats also quite important.

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EXPERIENCE

What this race takes , is a lightly weighted , improving younger horse , but you dont want them too inexperienced. It mustn't be forgotten that this is a very class Handicap for talented horses , on a Grade 1 track, and experience of this is important. You want a horse that has at Least gained some experience before, and has ability and knowledge of what it takes to run in a tough handicap. You really dont want the very lightly raced types that have yet to learn their craft. The Following Statistics Illustrate this ;

1) Horses that had less than 9 career starts are just 2 from 66 . This included 7 horses that started Favourite , and 17 horses that were
1-2-3 in the betting market . The 2 Sole winners were way back in 1987 and again in 1998 with White Heart who as pointed out above
then went on and won far better races .

2) Horses that did not run in a Handicap last time are only 2 from 59 . Only 2 managed to win this and they were in the 1987 renewal where an exceptional horse managed to win this when inexperienced, and in 1993 with Young Ern who was an exception to the rule as that horse went on and ran 2nd in a Group 1 race (Juddmonte International) having won several Group races prior to that.

Thats why I would be personally keen to Oppose the really lightly raced types in this race as they may not have the neccesary experience to win this race , and history shows us that unless you are really exceptional , you cant get away with that.

From the remaining Types I would see KEHAAR as the most vulnerable. He has only had 3 starts. He won a maiden, and yes although he
did win a 16 runner handicap on his 2nd start , that was a) an easier race and now he is 4lbs higher b) he was suited by a heavy downpour c) the form looks unsafe and as soon as he stepped up to this Class last time he ran badly. He may prove me wrong, many win this and then win a Group race but if you back horses that ran 3 times in races like this over a period of time you will go skint.

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FITNESS

You have to be Fit to win this race. Although the "Fitness" statistic wouldnt be as solid as most , it is still worth heeding as FUNFAIR Fails
the statsitic , the Ante Post favourite, and it gives us a chance to Oppose this horse on this Statistic, as well as the WEIGHT Statistic that he also fails (discussed above).

* Number of starts this year - Horses with less than 4 starts this year are just 2 from 33 . That was in 1987 , which we already know was
won by an exceptional horse, and again in 1996 with Decorated Hero who proved to be a Group 2 horse in a handicap (See weight stats)
FUNFAIR Has only had 1 start , and All 19 horses that had 0 , 1 or 2 starts that year and he would easily be the least proven winner of this in terms of number of races he has had to get fit. He is a a horse that goes well "Fresh". He ran very well on his 2004 seasonal debut, and he won last year on his seasonal debut so he clearly doesnt mind an absence and he is a horse that may well just be "best fresh". After all on his 2nd start last year He ran badly. I question his chance on any number of other levels as well . You could also question why Michael Stoute let him go and why he now races for Amanda Perratt ? I would also want to know whether the Cambridgeshire is not his target ? Will he be ready for this with the Cambridgeshire round the corner ? After all he started 5/1 in the Cambridgeshire last year off "93" and now he is rated 10lbs higher . Would Amanda Perratt want a penalty for him in that race by winning this ? He has won off "94" but has lost all 4 times he has raced in handicaps since and its hard to imagine him as well handicapped, and if he was, would Stoute not have kept him as he has not changed owners either ? I just dont like him. FUNFAIR fails 2 important stats and offers more questions than answers for me

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RACE CLASS

2 Interesting stats in this race are about Listed Class, and Group Class Runners.

1) Horses dropping from Group or Listed Class last time out are 0-37

2) Highest Race Class - You want a horse thats ran in Class B , but no higher. They had 13 of the last 16 winners (81%) from just 51% that ran . The Record of horses that ran in Class A or Above before at ANY Time in their career are only 2 from 147. Obvioulsy this statistic is tied up somewhat with the weight stats (Listed/Group Class runners have big weights) and cant be seen to stand out as a isolated statistic, but there are arguments that show the sense of why this happens. Horses that tried their chances in Group Class and then come back to handicaps are usually those that failed in Group Class , and often horses that are on the downgrade, or horses that have shown enough to be accurately rated by the handicapper, and we have seen this all season with many races like this won by horse who are "About" to start racing in Listed or Group Class, and NOT Won by horses that have already tried and failed in that Class. I would be sceptical about Opposing these 2 statistics. Here are the horses that Fail these 2 statistics.

Failed Class Rejections

1) Horses that ran in Listed/Group Class last time (0-37) -

Royal Storm 7/1 , Bahiano 33/1 , Material Witness 14/1 , Millenium Force 16/1 , Naahy 20/1 , Red Romeo 25/1 ,

2) Horses that Ran in Class A or Group Class before

Mine 12/1, Naahy 20/1 , Material Witness 14/1 , Millenium Force 16/1 ,Royal Storm 7/1 , Bahiano 33/1 , Boston Lodge 10/1 , Traytonic
14/1 , Red Romeo 25/1 and the 2 reserve runners ( Kool , Master Robbie)

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DISTANCE

7F is a specialists distance. There are many 6 furlong horses that dont excel at 7f, and many that drop down in trip and dont seem suited by this distance and several 7f handicaps are often won by specialist 7f winners. Stats that show this to be accurate are as follows

* Distance - Horses that come from a race that was under 7f last time out have a Poor 2 from 84 record . That was the 1988 winner (Macs
Fighter ) who went on and won in Listed Class , and White Heart (1998) who proved to be Grade 1 class in the States and good enough to bust other stats that year . The horses that come from a race under 7 furlongs last time have it to prove statistically.

This year we have 2 that Fail that test - Traytonic 14/1 and Red Romeo 25/1 , both who fail other stats as well

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PRELIMINARY SHORTLIST

So far the runners that have not failed Any of the above stats are as follows.

Free Trip 10/1 - Selection

Ettrick Water 11/2 - Danger
Greenslades 16/1 - Small Chance
Grizedale 25/1

GREENSLADES 16/1

I particularly like all 4 as they have all ran in Class B before , and no higher (like 13 of the last 16 winners). Four picks though is not
acceptable and the first I would rule out is GREENSLADES. He Has been punished by the handicapper for not winning. He was raised 4lbs
for not winning the Victoria Cup and all he has done is win a handicap off "85" and "93" may just be too high for him from This stable. He
has a chance and is statistically right but as a 5 year old, you would expect better handicapped horses with more improvement able to beat him in this race, especially as he is Drawn 10 and that may not be a good draw. He has a decent chance, but to side with a draw like that, I would want a horse thats seriously on the upgrade and from a powerful stable, not a 5 year old Peter Makin horse.

ETTRICK WATERS 11/2

He is statistically perfect as he has made the shortlist of 4 , but I dont want him on a point of value. He just looks a bit short at 11/2 . My first queerie with him is his age. Yes horses aged 5 have just as good a record as any other horse, but that is based on a 16 year record. If you take the last 12 renewals they have only won 1 race (2001 Downland a 40/1 shock in heavy ground) . The 3 wins that this age group had were in 1990 and 1992 besides that "Shock year" , and in the last 12 years Horses aged 3 and 4 have dominated. I would want a 3/4 year old over a 5 year old myself. I also dislike the fact that he has now won 5 handicaps in 8 starts , and has shot up the weights a total of 21llbs. He now has an extra 5lbs taking his mark to "99" having stated winning off "78". I wonder now whether he has enough improvement to defy the weight rise and the penalty having already improved so much this year. I suspect Luca Cumani agrees as he has booked a 3lbs claimer to take some weight off his back . After all, an artice in this weeks Racing and Football Outllok exposes the fact that horses that have won 4 or more handicaps before struggle badly (1 from 45) and they also have a very poor strike rate with "Placed" horses winning over 4 handicaps. Another thing I dont like about him is that twice he has been beaten when stepped up to Class B company. Any rain may also be against him as he does need it on top. I also think his draw (9) is another obstacle to overcome He has a sound statistical chance but when I see FREE TRIP at twice the price with twice the improvement in him I have to prefer his chance.

GRIZEDALE 25/1

GRIZEDALE may be 30/1 but he is still a very dangerous horse to reject , as he was 2nd in last years race when 2lbs higher in the
weights, and when carrying 3lbs more than he will be doing this year. He ran poorly last time, but he did the same in 2003 before running a huge race . This year he has had 4 starts, hes ran 1 good race and 3 poor races. I Didnt like him at all on Video last time. He ran in
snatched, didnt settle well and just hasnt looked like a horse about to win. You have to be careful though. He has a rails draw (usually an
advantage) and many winners of this race have ran well down the field on their most recent start before winning this race. I think he HAS To be Value at 30/1 (exchanges) much as he cant be the selection on current form.

The Selection - FREE TRIP 10/1

FREE TRIP is a Very interesting runner who is clearly on the upgrade, and won a 0-98 last time out very easily over a Mile. Gosden is on
record as saying he is best at 7f as he has so much speed, he is the right age, is statistically perfect and has plenty of improvement in him.

John Gosden has always liked this race. He had the 3rd in1992, the 6th in 1993 and in 1995 the runner up with Decorated Hero. That horse went on and won the race in 1996 in the style of a very class animal . In 1998 he went very close again with Mubrik (4th) . In 2002
Demonstate was serioulsy fancied for the stable but missed the race as a "puss pocket erupted in his foot," yet hacked up just a few days later. In 2003 he fancied Desert Opal but rain spoilt his chance and he withdrew the horse yet his "second string" still ran a close up 6th. This is a race that Gosden likes to target with young improving horses and this year I love his chance with Free Trip.

FREE TRIP looks a perfect type for the race and he was very impressive on video last time. Looking at potential problems he has 2. He is
described as a small horse, and has a middle draw (8) and horses drawn in the middle here over the years have had a miserable time. He is also described by his trainer as a "small field horse" . I Dont know whether I buy that. His record (won a 22 runner handicap, runner up in a 15 runner H,cap) suggests he will be fine and they could split here anyway. Richard Hughes will no doubt hold him up till late and you could have traffic problems , but he is potentially a massive improver that could repeat the stables 1996 win in this race. As regards to the Middle draw, it is a problem but this race has changed to 16 runners this year , (Its always been 25 + runners in the past) and that must help. His penalty wouldnt worry me as 5 horses have succesfully defied a penalty in this race , and I think he is a huge improver and given the run of the race could run these down . Many of his "dangers" are drawn badly as well , and whilst you may have to sit and suffer and wait for him to stake a late claim the fact is that he is the most exciting horse in the line up, has the most improvement and could be the Blot on the handicap needed to take this race. For me there is no chance he cant be value at 10/1 and a strong win bet is advised. I think its significant that Corals have ducked this horse and go 6/1 and Ladbrokes for me have made a big error in risking 10/1 to your money.


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