There is an Ante Post account bet Today on Adopted Hero in the Triumph Hurdle.This is a small bet and Obviously in a tough race but well worth a bet. Today is very Open at kempton and there is nothing from me of interest but Saturday looks a very busy day .

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Account Bet

Ante Post - Triumph Hurdle March 18th

ADOPTED HERO 20/1

£10 Win

x This will be Settled on the new account/service from March 1st

20/1 Corals , Paddy Power, SP Odds
16/1 Totalbet , Chandler , Bet 365 , Ukbetting Betdirect+ Most others
14/1 Hills , Blue Sq.
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March 18th

JCB Triumph Hurdle (Class A) Grade 1 (4yo) 2m1f

Trouble At Bay (10/1), Mondul (14/1), Tarque (16/1), Tusk (16/1), Adopted Hero (20/1), Power Elite (20/1), Val Du Don (20/1), Al Eile (25/1), Imazulutoo (25/1), Meryl (25/1), Moulin Riche (25/1),), Callow Lake (33/1), Cherub (33/1), Exotic Dancer (33/1), Fontanesi (33/1), Hasanpour (33/1), Howle Hill (33/1), King Revo (33/1), My Will (33/1), Tamarinbleu (33/1), Top Strategy (33/1), Zimbabwe (33/1), After Eight (40/1), All Star (40/1), Astronomic (40/1)

Account Bet - £10 Adopted Hero

ADOPTED HERO won a modest Novice Hurdle yesterday easily at Huntingdon but the performance convinced me that we have just seen the Triumph Hurdle winner and his price of 20/1 is now just too good to miss. I Am very confident that this horse is the one to be on at Cheltenham and He screams of being a great bet for many of the Following reasons.

1) Like all the best Ante Post bets the horse will Not Run Again so his price can do nothing but gradually shorten and I expect to see him far shorter in the betting on the day. He cant now get beaten or do anything that prevents him being statistically perfect for the race.

2) He is a Flat Bred horse and horses that are Flat Bred dominate this race. In the last 14 renewals of the Triumph Hurdle it has been won 13 times by a horse Bred for the Flat. This is because they Mature earlier and are suited to the mixed demands of speed and stamina required to win this race. Adopted Hero is a Flat Bred horse and Bred by a Champion sire is Saddlers Wells who also has an excellent record as a Hurdling Sire who includes the mighty Istabraq as one of his offspring.

3) He has won his Last Race before Cheltenham like 9 of the last 10 winners had previously done. This is an important statistic,

4) He now joins the Last 10 winners who all boast Victories in February . Yesterday was the perfect Trial at the Perfect Trial

5) He is improving fast and Maturing and His victory at Huntingdon was impressive in my opinion with a Lot in Hand at the end. He also had a hold up before the race. His Trainer Gary Moore stated after the race "To be honest, he was probably about 10 days short here because he has had a touch of sickness, but he had to run because we needed to get him qualified for the Triumph and where better to do it than in a £15,000 race?" He is also a strong and scopey type of horse that hasn't begun to get to the end of his Natural improvement Curve.

6) This is a weak year . This is not a strong year for Juvenile Hurdlers and No Horse has really taken the race by the scruff of the neck with just 5 weeks and a small handful if trials still to come.

7) He was a Quality Flat Horse that was trained by John Gosden winning 3 times including in Listed company in France. People say he was not the "most genuine" on the Flat but that doesn't worry me. He is simply improving and Maturing and Far stronger mentally than most of his rivals will be in March. Saying he is ungenuine is just regurgitating inaccurate rumours. Look at his Flat Form. He won a Class D Handicap on a Grade 1 track easily in July off a Handicap Mark of 85 stretching nicely Clear at the end and even at that stage he was identified as a very decent prospect for Hurdling. He then went and won a Listed Race in France. Now when you consider that form , it may not sound "top of the range" but look at the past runners of this race and bear in mind that he is Rated 85 on the flat. Now Compare the past winners of the Triumph Hurdle going back to when my records stop in 1986 .You find that 11 horses had Raced on the Flat before winning this race. ADOPTED HERO has achieved more than all of them.

The 2003 winner SPECTROSCOPE was only rated 67 at his best on the Flat.
The 2002 winner SCOLARDY only won a Maiden and Failed to win many handicaps off a lower rating than Adopted Hero had.
The 1997 winner COMMANCHE COURT won the Austrian Derby which was only a 3 runner race and many English horses could do that
The 1996 winner PADDYS RETURN was a maiden on the flat and beaten in all 3 of his races.
The 1995 winner KISSAIR won a handicap off 74 which is 11lbs below ADOPTED HEROS rating.
The 1994 winner MYSILV was only rated 65 at Best on the Flat.
The 1993 winner SHAWIYA only won a maiden on the flat and was beaten in his only start in a 0-80 handicap.
The 1992 winner DUKE OF MONMOUTH only managed to win of 72 on the Flat.
The 1991 winner OH SO RISKY only won a handicap off 84.
The 1990 winner RARE HOLIDAY won a small field Handicap in Ireland.
The 1989 winner IKDAM only won off 72 on the Flat.

None of these had Achieved what ADOPTED HERO has done on the Flat . He is simply the Best Flat horse amongst past winners of this race that raced on the Flat. He won easily off 85 and won a Listed race in France.

8) He wasn't a Cheap purchase either at the Sales. He fetched £120,000 which is not cheap

9) He has a very high Cruising speed which is essential at Cheltenham in the usual fast pace you get in this race. He will be able to sit prominently and race up with the pace and not have to come from miles behind. 8 of the last 10 winners Raced very prominently in this race and 2 of them Made every yard of the running. He has that Natural Speed and That will help him avoid all the Traffic problems and the Fallers behind him.

10) He should be Unbeaten over Hurdles. He would have won at Chepstow on his Hurdling debut on soft ground but he got tired and made a mistake at the last on a very stiff track on soft ground having had 3 months off the track . Dont forget that was also a CLASS A Race against decent horses. The Runner up (Mondul) has come out and won a Grade 2 Hurdle since and is the Current 2nd Favourite for the race. I think he would have eaisly beaten Mondul at Chepstow and I think he will at Cheltenham.

This Cant be 20/1 on the day and the Moment I saw him win I knew he was the One. My Main concern is the Lack of great success his Trainer G L Moore has over the jumps and his 0 from 18 record at Cheltenham since 1999 , but then again we are talking about a small stake on a 20/1 chance and G L Moore wont have had many £120,000 Saddlers Wells horses in his Care and he has trained Multiple winners over Flat and Jumps before. This is the horse that could finally put him on the Map . Another slight issue might be very fast ground. Gary Moore has said that "Good to Firm" going might see him miss the race but thats far from certain to happen and these days you never get a major festival that isnt anything but well watered. Obviously this is a very hard race to win and its a race that demands low stakes so I am only going £10 Win on the Account but I genuinely believe that in a weak year with the Irish Challenge looking sparse he is outstanding value and has everything needed to win a Triumph.
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