2 Further Account Bets Today.


3 Days of what will hopefully be Divine Pleasure. That will mainly depend on the Account Bets. There is not much more to add from the Opinions of today's card from the Punter and I stand by most of the Analysis in that. Hidden Bounty runs today. Tusk and Adopted hero run on Thursday and I am Now Betting both RHINESTONE COWBOY at 5/1 and a Saver on EMOTIONAL MOMENT at 14/1 in Wednesdays Coral Cup.

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Account Bets


2 Further Bets Today both run in Wednesdays Coral Cup Totalling £25 Stakes.

Wednesday 4.00 Coral Cup

Rhinestone Cowboy £20 Win
Emotional Moment £5 Win Saver


(Rhinestone Cowboy Take 5/1 Ladbrokes, Hills, Corals, Bet365)
(Emotional Moment Take 14/1 Ladbrokes, Hills, Corals, Tote)

£25 Staked in both bets.

I strongly advise that you bet these Tuesday Morning as the market will
soon be suspended and several horses will come out of the race. The
Bet will be put down at 5/1 On The Account.

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The Ante Post Bet on HIDDEN BOUNTY Also Runs Today

Cheltenham 5.20 Pertemps Handicap

Hidden Bounty

£20 win £10 place 14/1

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Todays Racing

The RHINESTONE COWBOY / Emotional Moment Analysis is at the Foot of the Message .

Cheltenham 2:00 Letheby & Christopher Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Class A) Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m½f (2m110y

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Albuhera, 9/2 Brave Inca, 7/1 Cardenas, 8/1 Garde Champetre, Mariah Rollins, 9/1 Perle De Puce, 11/1 Fleet Street, 16/1 Lacdoudal, Locksmith, Zum See, 25/1 Arch Stanton, Bourbon Manhattan, Dictum, 33/1 John Oliver, 40/1 Euro Leader, Simoun, War Of Attrition, 100/1 Zibeline, 200/1 Island Stream.

Selection - No Bet

Not a race I want to play too heavily in and my thoughts have not changed much. I don't think a shock is out of the question here. I tipped CARDENAS in the magazine but with very little conviction but I have no plans to bet him. If I do bet in this race then it might be a Match Bet between the 2 principles. On the one hand you have ALBUHERA who must be considered to have had the ground go against him, and BRAVE INCA who will relish the ground far more as it will ensure it becomes more of a stamina test. I Would have to go with BRAVE INCA in that match bet but I would be playing for buttons as He is a National Hunt Bred horse and the problem with match bets here is that most of them will Make up and the maximum gain or loss of 15 lengths so you have to be right and there is no skill in getting hurt early on a horse I don't even fancy. Marginal preference for BRAVE INCA in that match bet any stakes would be minimum and a shock is more than possible. I really hate the opener. I have never sat comfortably with any of them. I wonder whether it would make more sense to side with MARIAH ROLLINS who has what might be a crucial 7lbs Mares allowance that has been increased this year from 5lbs and Mares do have a good record in this race. I think this is genuinely Wide Open.

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Cheltenham 2:40 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Class A) Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Thisthatandtother, 100/30 Kicking King, 7/1 Caracciola, Well Chief, 8/1 Our Armageddon, 10/1 Central House, 14/1 Colca Canyon, 18/1 Keltic Bard, 20/1 Tidour, 25/1 Le Duc, Palua, Royaleety, 40/1 Mister McGoldrick, 50/1 Puntal, 66/1 Jahash, John James.

Selection - No Bet

As a betting race I detest it and I just can not see the angle to play in. The magazine selection is CARACCIOLA but that was a Guess with a Capital G .I don't think that I can see any bet here that I would be confident about having. I thought about Laying Well Chief "place only" but how many have you realistically got on your side? I imagine the Irish will bet Kicking King heavily and getting Top price about him might result in an Arb although there won't be much in it. So much depends on how the ground will ride. Again I have to Bail out and won't have a bet.
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Cheltenham 3:20 Smurfit Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Class A) Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m½f (2m110y

Betting Forecast: 11/8 Rooster Booster, 7/2 Rigmarole, 7/1 Intersky Falcon, 10/1 Specular, 14/1 Limerick Boy, Westender, 16/1 Foreman, 20/1 Davenport Milenium, Geos, 33/1 Hardy Eustace, Hasty Prince, 50/1 Golden Cross, 66/1 Fota Island, Self Defense.

Selection- Limerick Boy (Without the Favourite)

Through the years this has been probably my favourite race bar The Derby at Epsom. One of my 1st ever bets was 50 pence win at 16/1 in 1985 on See You Then when a student in lodgings and in the same year my life in racing was cemented with Slip Anchor, Oh So Sharp, First Bout in that years Triumph and Wing and a Prayer. I backed See You Then every year after that and since then it has always been the highlight of my festival and far more interesting to me than the Gold Cup. This year it has been Vile watching and not understanding what is going on and who is the potential champion. I have been frustrated all year about failing to "see" what will be totally clear with Hindsight at 3.30pm.

When RIGMAROLE won at Wincanton I felt that performance was more than enough for me to make him the selection. I always wanted to Oppose Ante Post favourite ROOSTER BOOSTER and I am not afraid to now. Of course he has a huge chance but he is not and has never been my Champion Hurdler and I think I have to stay against him. With RIGMAROLE I am just wondering whether the ground has started to go against him now. He has always been said to be "best on fast ground", and whilst he will act on the ground today I just wonder whether that will blunt his speed. WESTENDER might be in the same boat and would perhaps just fail for class. GEOS is in the same boat. If he wins there will be some amazing plaudits for how tough and game he is but this is not about being tough. This is about being the best Hurdler in Europe and I don't think he is and the same can be felt about DAVENPORT MILLENIUM.

SPECULAR is very dark. A Class horse in Australia but bitterly disappointing in his only race this year at Haydock. Can the Magic be worked? Is he now about to show just how good his Australian form is and how good is that? Why are Ladbrokes Ducking him at 8/1 when other firms go 14/1 ?
This horse had an Australian record of 9 wins and two seconds in 11 hurdle races and almost defied a huge weight of 11st 1 lb in the Australian Grand National Hurdle before JP Mc Manus paid £280,000 for him after watching him on Video. No horse had carried more than 11st to victory in that race in the last 60 years. Yet we still don't know how good that form is and how it translates over here. He came to Haydock for his 1st race in England and was dismal in defeat. That day many blamed the ground but Liam Cooper was not doing that. He said he "just wasn't good enough on the day". My Gut feeling about this horse is that he won't be good enough. I have to question him for a couple of reasons. I think he is more of a stayer. His previous owner said he would stay a lot further than 2 miles and he might get caught out at 2 miles in England especially when he was described as a horse that " Never taken on and put under any pressure in Australia, He used to win all his races so easily. Most of the time he would be last and would sweep around them and go home". There is also a jumping issue. He was described as "Not the best jumper you've seen" when in Australia and it may just be too strong a race, at too short a distance in a race where 1 mistake could cost you the race.

FOREMAN has now won in Britain, Germany, France and Ireland and is arguably as dark as JP Mc Manus's SPECULAR. You can interpret his form in many ways and question it but the truth is he is impossible to rule out on what we know and not that easy to fancy on what we do.

In the last few days I have warmed to LIMERICK BOY as I feel he "Might" just be a class horse. Much of this is instinct and I won't bore you with all the main reasons which are well documented already. I am far from certain but I have had some 12/1 "without the favourite" and a little bit on at 20/1 each way and as a selection I am happy with that. In terms of an Account Bet, I am leaving it alone as the "Without the Favourite" market is a novelty market and the 12/1 has gone and I am simply not confident enough that I am right. LIMERICK BOY is the selection.

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Cheltenham 4:00 William Hill National Hunt Handicap Chase (Class A) Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m½f (3m110y)

Betting Forecast: 9/4 Haut Cercy, 9/2 Kelami, 6/1 Marlborough, Shardam, 7/1 Fork Lightning, 10/1 Royal Auclair, 12/1 Master Tern, Tyneandthyneagain, 20/1 Chicuelo, 25/1 You're Agoodun, 40/1 Dark Stranger.

Selection- Shardam

Again no need for huge analysis that's repeated in the Magazine. Summing up I feel HAUT CERCY has a great chance but is vulnerable on jumping ability. MARLBOROUGH has a tough task with Topweight. KELAMI has to overcome inexperience. FORK LIGHTENING is a Novice. I sided with SHARDAM at 12/1 to a small stake but he is generally now only 8/1 and he is not straight forward. I like his chance. Pricewise have gone with ROYAL AUCLAIR. I was not too upbeat about the horse in the Magazine but I may well have got that wrong and the horse had many entries this week and I liked him for one of those. The ground has come right as well and he might be the one to beat. If you want to bet that horse then don't let anything you read in The Punter put you off. In terms of a selection I am staying with SHARDAM but I have laid back my 12/1 at a shorter price for a small free bet and it is not a race I want big stakes in.

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Cheltenham 4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders) (Class B) (5yo+, 0-140) 3m½f (3m110y

Betting Forecast: 7/1 Ibis Rochelais, 8/1 Toto Toscato, 10/1 Horus, Innox, Jasmin Guichois, Wagner, 12/1 Mondial Jack, Royal Predica, 14/1 Ballyconnell, Prominent Profile, 20/1 Dominikus, Jasmin D'Oudairies, Super Fellow, 25/1 Jardin De Beaulieu, Merchants Friend, Montifault, 33/1 Red Striker, Royal Beluga, 40/1 Gielgud, Maximize, Montreal, Wild Knight, 50/1 Lanmire Tower, Sulphur Springs.

Selection- Ballyconnell

Totally wide open. Won't bore you with further analysis. I have not changed my mind that BALLYCONNEL is interesting and a bit of value at 16/1 but it will take a Herculean effort for any of these to win and plenty of luck in running. I have had a small bet on him to win a grand mainly as it's such a cheap risk at 16/1 but the race looks particularly tough and stakes look best kept low.

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Cheltenham 5:20 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Class A) (Listed Race) (5yo+) 3m1½f (3m1f110y)

Betting Forecast: 7/1 Keepatem, Mistanoora, 8/1 Ar Muin Na Muice, Hidden Bounty, 10/1 Stormez, 12/1 G V A Ireland, 14/1 Back On Top, Tardar, 16/1 Alexanderthegreat, Personal Assurance, The Bajan Bandit, 20/1 Derivative, Freetown, Inching Closer, 25/1 Brewster, Creon, His Nibs, Mutineer, 33/1 Imperial De Thaix, Rostropovich, 40/1 Stromness, 50/1 Carlovent, Homeleigh Mooncoin, 66/1 Columbus.


Well this is the one that we really want the Account bet on HIDDEN BOUNTY. We are on at 14/1 to £20 Win and £10 Stake and that's a big price now with the Racing Post "Napping" him and a general price of 10/1. It is a smallish bet and I am realistic to feel that with 24 runners we will need a lot of good fortune and I am a bit worried with Mary Reveley! That said I have put a lot of work into the race and I think we have a terrific bet.

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RHINESTONE COWBOY + Emotional Moment

Chelteham 4:00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (Class A) Grade 3 (5yo+) 2m5f

Rhinestone Cowboy (5/1), Mughas (13/2), Dromlease Express (10/1), Monkerhostin (10/1), Starzaan (12/1), Emotional Moment (14/1), Inca Trail (16/1), Rosaker (16/1), Foly Pleasant (25/1), Korelo (25/1), Quazar (25/1), Redemption (28/1), Galileo (33/1), Keepatem (33/1), The French Furze (40/1), Almaravide (50/1), Claymore (50/1), Contraband (50/1), Mon Villez (50/1), Mythical King (50/1), Anatar (66/1), Bow Strada (66/1), Court Shareef (66/1), Sud Bleu (66/1), Aine Dubh (100/1) - others 100/1 or more

I Thought Long and Hard about this. I always felt the horse was not out of this but after further consultation and study on Tuesday I am now going to advise a bet on RHINESTONE COWBOY and a Saver on EMOTIONAL MOMENT. I Was considering a Heavy stake. I suppose that the Account should reflect my own stakes in order to be a true reflection of accuracy. It does not in this case as I have had £600 on RHINESTONE COWBOY and thats a big bet for me in a race like this and I have probably overstaked by £200 . That said I do fancy him a great deal and I am Far from ruling out EMOTIONAL MOMENT and insist on a Saver. I think a £25 stake which will be pretty much average for each bet on the Flat Season is not too ambitious tomorrow especially as we have the Saver as well. I wont bore you with much more additional analysis but dont be fooled that Topweights Cant win as many of the statistical guides tell you. I have posted some statistics on the message board that show a phenominal record from horses like RHINESTONE COWBOY who are rated over 155 when they race in handicaps.

Horses Rated 155 Running in Handicaps since 2001

51 Runners
21 Winners
19 Placed
11 Unplaced

Thats a massive 41% strike rate and To a £1 Level Stake you are Winning £78.22

Horses Rated 160 Running in Handicaps since 2001

26 Runners
14 Winners
10 Placed
2 Unplaced

Thats a Massive 54% Strike Rate and To a £1 Level Stake you are Winning £62.87

It gets better when you consider that Horses Rated 160 or more that have races in handicaps At Cheltenham in the last 3 years, there have been 6 Qualifiers and 5 of them have Won and the only loser came 2nd. Also Consider that 11st 12lbs that RHINESTONE COWBOY Carries is reduced by JP Magniers 7lbs Claim to 11st 5lbs and that most runners are Out of the Handicap. Also Consider that In RHINESTONE COWBOYS 11 Race Career he has NEVER Started bigger than 5/2. I Think that These Stats Outclass the Tired old stats about horses not being able to Carry over 11st in Handicaps and the reason is simple. Horses that carry over 11st are often rated in the High 140's or Low 150's. We are talking here about a horse that is a different class altogether.

At the start of this year over the jumps I played statistically and had a bit of fun with a few stats and bets as I did not feel confident enough to commit serious bets to National Hunt Racing on my first season back . Now we are coming to the showpiece of the season I have come to see that while Stats do have their place they have to be interpreted correctly just as Form has to be. Two of the Most widely known stats are that Topweights in Handicaps dont win at the festival, and neither do the offspring of Be My Native . RHINESTONE COWBOY is both Topweight and sired by Be My Native which personally I find fascinating. Of all the Battles this week, of all the contests and all this issues, my biggest interest is not going to be Moscow Flyer or Azertyuiop. It wont be Rooster Booster or Rigmarole or The battle between Bookmakers and Punters at Cheltenham. It will be about this race and how a Topweighted Son of Be My Guest might Kill two of the Biggest Statistics in the National Hunt Game in just over 5 minutes.

Of course I may be wrong. JP Magnier might mess up the ride. The Horse may hate the hustle and Bustle of the race. Its feasible that he might not stay as well as people thing. This trip is 20 seconds longer to run than his previous longest winning distance at Haydock over 20f. All I know is that with a Total stake of £25 we are not placing ourselves in any Great Danger in the long term scheme of things and the stakes at Cheltenham stand at £100 and thats about what I was looking at staking at the start of the week anyway.

I really would not rule out EMOTIONAL MOMENT at all. My Numbers on this race (Taken as an aggregate from 2 highly respected organisations)
are as Follows and you will see from the Betting that this race is NOT as competteive as your average Coral Cup.

Rhinestone Cowboy (5/1), Mughas (13/2), Dromlease Express (10/1), Monkerhostin (10/1), Starzaan (12/1), Emotional Moment (14/1), Inca Trail (16/1), Rosaker (16/1), Foly Pleasant (25/1), Korelo (25/1), Quazar (25/1), Redemption (28/1), Galileo (33/1), Keepatem (33/1), The French Furze (40/1), Almaravide (50/1), Claymore (50/1), Contraband (50/1), Mon Villez (50/1), Mythical King (50/1), Anatar (66/1), Bow Strada (66/1), Court Shareef (66/1), Sud Bleu (66/1), Aine Dubh (100/1) - others 100/1 or more

5/1 Rhinestone Cowboy = 162
14/1 Emotional Moment =162
16/1 Starzaan = 160
13/2 Mughas =158
10/1 Monkerhostin =157
33/1 Quazar =157
10/1 Dromlease Express =147

These numbers also IGNORE the fact that Magnier takes off 7lbs from Rhinestone Cowboys Back. There are other important issues to consider in the race such as the Dreadfull Record of 5 year olds in the race. There have been 47 that have tried and only 1 has ever been placed in the First 3 places and the record in the other staying races at the Festival is equally as bad. On Wednesday MURGHAS and STARZAAN are both trying to win this as 5 year olds and that must be seen to be a very hard Task. DROMLEASE EXPRESS has been hurt by being 6lbs out of the handicap and when you consider that he is Forced to race today off 139, and that his Pierse Hurdle win came off only 116 he has a really tough task to win this on a 23lbs higher mark moving from a 0-128 to a 0-165 . INCA TRAIL has a chance but he takes a big step up in class and takes a 13lbs rise in the weights for winning a West Country Handicap Hurdle at Wincanton and he has plenty to do on the Numbers. KORELO Could win if returning to Cheltenham 2003 form but he has looked regressive over Fences lately. THE FRENCH FURZE is too old. I fear MONKERHOSTIN a little but he might not have had the best preperation and while ROSAKER is interesting he has never ran in a handicap in his life before and has been re-routed from the Stayers Hurdle. EMOTIONAL MOMENT (Full reasons given in The Punter) gets 26lbs in weight and has to be the Danger.

I Might have this wrong but I think RHINESTONE COWBOY will Outclass this Field. I dont want a Heavy Stake on him. I also want a Saver but overall looking at the 3 Mail Bets of HIDDEN BOUNTY 14/1, TUSK 14/1 and the Savers on Adopted Hero 16/1 and Emotional Moment 14/1 I think we have staked £100 very well and got some great value and can look forward to a good week with a strong bet every day. We only need 1 winner.

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