No Account Bet today. If you want a bet consider an each way double on WORLD REPORT (11.55) and CHAMPOLUC (12.25). I have also backed LATIN EXPRESS (1.25) at 9/1 .



*********************

December 29th and 2005 is Looming and this is the first E Mail message for 16 Days . There has not been an Account bet since December 13th

but overall things are fine. The Message board is doing its supportive role as usual and what horses and "mentions" I have popped on there are

generally going well . Really isnt my time of year at the moment and I have taken my foot off the pedal a bit on the Account. The Things I want to

get sorted in 2005 are the profit on the account and some "Housekeeping" issues. I want to get back to some routine and structure and momentum

by doing a message every day. I am not clear who can and can not read the message board during the day and just how "accessible" the horses

on their are. I dont want a divisive service or a service with that has Tiers of enjoyment but doing a daily e mail at this time of year has never been

easy. Truth is David's sabatical is a big gap to fill and much of the All Weather racing is so impossible and subject to how the tracks are running.
You really do seem to need good information on the sand these days. You are wasting your time reading form, or applying Numbers and Figures

to your betting. There are also so many horses that are not trying their best that it is a lottery at times and I dont have much confidence there at all.

In the last year my record on Sand has been excellent but thats because I have waited for the right "Information" based bets and they have been

few and far between . The National Hunt is also a weak area for me. The ground has been desperate and any weakness in my armery is easily

exposed and there is plenty of weakness as I dont feel I Know the horses of the connections well enough .

The main focus of study has been the statistics which have performed remarkably well recently. That is possibly my best edge in these winter

months and I include todays statistics and the results of a scoring system I am currently trialling later in the message . My main hope for a bet on

the jumps really comes from highlighting a statistic that implores me to bet something , and whilst the stats are winning and doing well, I havent yet

made that leap from fancying a horse to tipping it. I am hoping that will come soon but its pointless spinning and masking over the fact that I am not

as confident over the jumps as it isnt my area . With Any time I mention a horse, be it on the Account, or the message board or through the

statistics scoring you can be assured I have thought it through and endorse it if you want a bet, but I have to see the Main Account as the only

thing that matters and the thing I have to be judged by. Whilst we have had a quiet time , year in and year out we always seem to have 100-125

bets a year and busy times and quiet times even themselves out. I will include the statistics for each day for some time but I may have to Shut

down the Stats service and possibly incorporate it in the Main Service. I like to please as many people as I can but the Account is the single 1

issue that cant be compromised and it is the Heartbeat of the service. If it fails then we fail. If it succeeds then we succeed and thats crucial and

why I wont let anything get in the way of it and why I Want you to understand that its the only real thing that matters. To be fair, quiet as I have

been, we havent had a losing month since July and overall the standard of the bets on the account is very good and the strike rate comparable to

the highest of standards as usual .

I have still yet to hear when I am moving house but Mid January seems favourite and I have no choice but to take some time off . In the meantime

I just have to manage my time a lot better. I am still looking far too much at all racing rather than concentrating on certain areas and I cant

understand why I havent been able to sort that out better. Plenty of tinkering to be done to get back in the zone but I am not in any hurry at the

moment and as long as the Account Bets perform as they have in the last 6 months we will be fine.


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Todays Racing


Some Interesting Races/Horses today


Lingfield 11.55 - WORLD REPORT

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Seamless, 5/2 World Report, 3/1 Kempsey, 8/1 Flying Dancer, 20/1 Dukes Point, Flying Heart, 25/1 Dishdasha, Tilly

Floss, 66/1 Dancing Moonlight,

The stats were not much help in this race and the race is complicated by not knowing the level of fitness that WORLD REPORT or SEAMLESS

have today. I Think that if there is a horse in this race thats far better than the opposition then it is WORLD REPORT and I think his form is

stronger than his rivals . What I would do here is bet him in an each way double with Champoluc in the 12.25 race. I Think both have outstanding

winning chances without being totally bombproof but I doubt either will be unplaced. Looks a clever e/w double to me.


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Lingfield 12.25 - CHAMPOLUC

Betting Forecast: 6/4 Champoluc, 4/1 Spring Dew, 5/1 Augustine, 6/1 Go Garuda, 8/1 Hellbent, 16/1 Big Mystery, 20/1 Dexileos, 50/1 Jaycee

Star, Louisville Prince,

AUGUSTINE may not be ready to do his best today for 2 reasons. Firstly Peter Hiatt has a very poor record with horses that have had an

absence. If you look at Peter Hiatts runners that have an absence of 80 days or more they have a dismal 1-85 record . His record with horses

with an absence of 112 days or more is 0 from 60 so AUGUSTINE really has it all to do with his 548 day absence. Another issue may be his

carrer path . Way back in the summer Hiatt said this about AUGUSTINE : " He is a very good horse. His biggest problem will be avoiding a high

handicap mark because he finished 5th in a very good Newmarket maiden in 2003 on his only start. If he wins a maiden he will have a high rating

in the 80's so I may have to try and win a claimer as that would ensure he has a chance to win Handicaps." That comment could be totally

misleading and deliberate but it does ring true and make sense and victory in this maiden would put him on a stiff mark. That leads me to think that

he may not be intending to try and win this race with the horse. I certainly cant have SPRING DEW as a once raced Filly that started 40/1 last

time in an average Wolverhampton maiden . I think it points to CHAMPOLUC from Walter Swinburns yard. This horse was unlucky not to lose
her maiden in Ireland as she ran into a listed class winner on her debut and last time she ran into a heavily backed Barry Hills filly. That race looks

better than anything here has achieved and I think she was unlucky again to run into an above average winner. I liked her on video, I liked the way

she pulled 6 lengths clear of the 3rd horse, I like the fact the stable had a winner recently and the slight drop in trip .She should win despite not

being in my price range for an Account bet.

*************

Lingfield 1.25 - LATIN EXPRESS

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Rancho Cucamonga, 6/1 King After, 7/1 Our Kes, 8/1 Latin Express, 10/1 Miss Tolerance, 12/1 Bold Cheverak, Gogetter

Girl, Town End Tom, Yardstick, 16/1 Midnight Lace, 20/1 Missed Turn, Ronnies Lad, Taipan Tommy, 50/1 Worth A Grand,

I Think LATIN EXPRESS is the Class Horse in this race and can overcome a tricky draw now that he gets a trip more in line with his breeding.
You will see that this horse is carrying 7lbs more than any other horse in this race. Thats a sure sign that he enjoys a "Class gulf". Today he is being

asked to win a 0-68 Nursery as his highest rated opponent is rated only 68.

His first form was on his 3rd start when 2nd in a Maiden at Lingfield over 6f back in November. That looked a warm race yet LATIN

EXPRESS was backed from 12/1 to 6/1 that day and ran very well . The winner looks usefull and The 3rd horse that day came out and won a

maiden next time out . The 4th horse "Placed" in a maiden next time and the 5th horse placed in a Handicap off 71 next time. That looked a solid

maiden with powerful stables involved

I then gave LATIN EXPRESS a big chance just 4 days later at Lingfield over 5f (Nov 20th) . I was troubled by the drop back to the minimum

trip but felt he was likely to be the fittest horse in the race and gave him the benefit of the doubt . He ran an excellent 2nd to Canary Island who

could well be above average himself in what was a quick time. The 3rd horse was rated 79 and comfortably beaten by LATIN EXPRESS so I

dont feel todays 0-68 opposition should strike fear into us today.

LATIN EXPRESS Then ran in Handicap company last time out (Dec 14th). He came 4th at Lingfield in a 0-82 Handicap. That was not a bad run

at all for saying a) He was eased when beaten and could have easily been 3rd b) He was kept at the minimum trip and couldnt go the early pace.

That looks solid form. The winner (Ryedane) had won his previous race. The runner up (Turn on the Style) came out and won a Handicap easily

by 3 lengths next time out, and the 4th (Athboy Nights) placed in Handicap Class on her next start . Today is a drop in Class . He moves from a

race with AOR of 66.71 to Todays race with AOR of only 59.23 .Willie Muir is well worth keeping an eye on with these types. His Nursery

runners are very profitable when they have had a recent race. If you look at All his Nursery runners that ran within 15 days of their last start he has

an excellent strike rate of 13% and a £21.50 LSP betting his horses blindly. Yet if you look at his runners with a 16 + day absence in Nurserys

they are a dreadful 1-96 so a recent run is a true sign of how this stable perform best.

I have LATIN EXPRESS scoring very well on my Statistics. He is the right Sex and comes from the right race. This race shows a Bias to High

Weighted runnners . I have the best jockey in the race. I am the best horse officially and whilst it looks a tight Nursery and the Draw (13/14) may

take some negotiating I am a great believer in Class over Adversity and at 8/1 I think LATIN EXPRESS is excellent value. The key may well be

the step up to 7f . I think this is far more in line with his breeding. Running at 5f would not be ideal for a Marju horse with plenty of stamina from

his Dams line. I think he will win.


*****************

Lingfield 1.55 - MYSTIC LAD


Betting Forecast: 4/6 Shannon Arms, 3/1 Mystic Lad, 10/1 Zorn, 14/1 Diamond Dancer, Ice Dragon, 20/1 Ravel, 25/1 Daisy Forever, Edin

Burgher, 50/1 Top Place

I thought MYSTIC LAD may well be a Class above this field. That is supposition but Jamie Poulton was talking this horse up a lot earlier in the

year when he said " This is a very nice and very fast horse. He ran an excellent debut race at Lingfield before injuring his back at Newmarket .

You can ignore that run and he is one to follow on the All Weather in the Autumn". Its true he may not be fit , or could be given a quiet run for a

Handicap mark today but I doubt it and I am not tipping him . I think in a years time he would easily be he best of these and I think he is the

sensible pick assuming he isnt drifting too badly.

*****************


Statistics

Current Record of Scoring System

Excellent day yesterday with 4/1 and 100/30 winners from the best 2 bets on the day.
That takes the profit to £9.53 to advised stakes at Starting Price.

+ £9.53


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Todays Scoring Reccomendations

4 Bets with 3 pts staked on the day.

Lingfield 1.25 - LATIN EXPRESS 0.5 pts Each Way
Musselburgh 12.30 - DOLMUR 0.5 pts Each Way

Lingfield 12.25 - CHAMPOLUC 0.5 pts Win
Lingfield 12.55 - AGGRAVATION 0.5 pts Win

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Todays Stats

Wednesdays Stats

Lingfield 11.55 - (Division 1 2yo Maiden) - 15 similar renewals and 154 runners
Lingfield 11.55 - Horses coming from Wolverhampton are 0-17
Lingfield 11.55 - Fillies have a dreadfull 2-69 record
Lingfield 11.55 - Horses at 8/1 and over are only 1-100
Lingfield 11.55 - Horses that were either unraced (3-44) , Once raced (1-30) or twice raced (1-36) perform well below expectation
Lingfield 11.55 - Horses that were 2nd , 3rd or 4th last time are best (10-33)

Lingfield 12.25 - (Division 1 3yo + Maiden ) - 15 similar renewals and 174 runners
Lingfield 12.25 - No Age advantages but Colts (10-97) just shade fillies
Lingfield 12.25 - Jockeys that claim are poor (1-37)
Lingfield 12.25 - Horses at 12/1 and over are 0-97
Lingfield 12.25 - Horses with less than 4 career starts struggle (2-53)
Lingfield 12.25 - Horses with less than 3 races this season are poor (2-54)

Lingfield 12.55 - (Division 2 2yo Maiden) - 15 similar renewals and 154 runners
Lingfield 12.55 - Horses coming from Wolverhampton are 0-17
Lingfield 12.55 - Fillies have a dreadfull 2-69 record
Lingfield 12.55 - Horses at 8/1 and over are only 1-100
Lingfield 12.55 - Horses that were either unraced (3-44) , Once raced (1-30) or twice raced (1-36) perform well below expectation
Lingfield 12.55 - Horses that were 2nd , 3rd or 4th last time are best (10-33)

Lingfield 1.25 - (Nursery) - 14 similar renewals and 141 runners
Lingfield 1.25 - Horses coming from Wolverhampton are 0-22
Lingfield 1.25 - Colts (12-89) are over 3 times more likely to win than fillies
Lingfield 1.25 - Claiming jockeys are only 1-25
Lingfield 1.25 - Horses at 12/1 and over are only 1-65
Lingfield 1.25 - Horses that came from Class D or E last time are best (others 1-27)
Lingfield 1.25 - Horses with only 3 career races struggle (0-22)
Lingfield 1.25 - Horses with 8st 11lbs or more (9-58) beat those with 8st 10lbs or less (5-83)

Lingfield 1.55 - (Division 2 3yo + Maiden ) - 15 similar renewals and 174 runners
Lingfield 1.55 - No Age advantages but Colts (10-97) just shade fillies
Lingfield 1.55 - Jockeys that claim are poor (1-37)
Lingfield 1.55 - Horses at 12/1 and over are 0-97
Lingfield 1.55 - Horses with less than 4 career starts struggle (2-53)
Lingfield 1.55 - Horses with less than 3 races this season are poor (2-54)

Musselburgh 12.30 - There have been 19 similar renewals and 223 runners
Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses coming from Cheltenham (3-3) do well yet those from Kelso (1-35) are weak
Musselburgh 12.30 - 4 year olds (11-69) are best as those aged 7 + are just 1-34
Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses that have never ran in at least Class E before struggle (1-36)
Musselburgh 12.30 - Female horses are dreadful (1-56)
Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses at 6/1 and over are only 1-180
Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses coming from Class G/H last time underperform (1-36)
Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses coming from a Maiden hurdle are weak (1-42)
Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses with 2 runs this year strangely have a poor 1-56 record

Musselburgh 1:35 - There have been 8 similar renewals with 83 runners. (3yo Novice Hurdle)
Musselburgh 1:35 - You dont want an absence of 31+ days (0-14) as those that raced under 15 days ago are best (4-15)
Musselburgh 1:35 - Female horses underperform (1-24)
Musselburgh 1:35 - Fancied horses are best. Those at 6/1 and over are just 1-59
Musselburgh 1:35 - Horses that were 1st/2nd last time out have a good record (4-12)
Musselburgh 1:35 - Horses with 11st 4lbs or over are always good prospects in these races (3-8)

Musselburgh 2:40 - There have been 19 similar renewals with 140 runners (Handicap Chase)
Musselburgh 2:40 - Weakest age group would be 10 yrs or more (1-28)
Musselburgh 2:40 - Horses at 16/1 and over are just 1-31
Musselburgh 2:40 - Last time out winners are 0-13
Musselburgh 2:40 - Horses coming from Class F/G are just 1-22
Musselburgh 2:40 - Horses coming from a Hurdle are interesting (4-40) and record a £62 Lsp
Musselburgh 2:40 - Horses coming from Doncaster (1-1), Catterick (3-12) and Newcastle (3-15) do well but from Musselburgh dont (1-21)


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Todays Scores

Statistical Scoring System

a) Every horse starts with a 10 pt starting figure.
b) I use the 2 strongest stats and use a variable + 2pts /- 2pts scoring system depending on if they are positive or negative
c) I then take my 3rd best statistic and use a +1.5 pt / -1.5 pt scoring system
d) The remainder of the stats are 1pt / + 1 pt
e) Obviously some stats can be used to give positive or negative points to but not neccesarily negative points to . There has to be a big area of

discretion used as There are big areas of ambiguity in certain stats like the "odds" and only personal discretion can sort that


Wednesdays Stats

Lingfield 11.55 - The Stats mirror the betting and dont offer any particular angle to oppose the market leaders.

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Seamless, 5/2 Kempsey, 3/1 World Report, 8/1 Flying Dancer, 20/1 Dukes Point, Flying Heart, 25/1 Dishdasha, Tilly

Floss, 66/1 Dancing Moonlight,

The 2 strongest stats ( + 2pts/-2pts)
Lingfield 11.55 - Fillies have a dreadfull 2-69 record (deduct 2pts)
Lingfield 11.55 - Horses at 8/1 and over are only 1-100 (deduct 2pts)

The 3rd Strongest Stat ( +1.5pts / -1.5 Pts)

Lingfield 11.55 - Horses that were 2nd , 3rd or 4th last time are best (10-33) (Add 1.5 pts)

Other Stats

Lingfield 11.55 - Horses coming from Wolverhampton are 0-17 (Deduct 0.5 pts)
Lingfield 11.55 - Horses that were either unraced (3-44) , Once raced (1-30) or twice raced (1-36) perform well below expectation

Result

SEAMLESS 11 pts
KEMPSEY 11 pts
WORLD REPORT 10 pts
DUKES POINT 8 pts
FLYING DANCER 6 pts

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Lingfield 12.25 - CHAMPOLUC should put his experience to good use unless there is a Dark one lurking .

Betting Forecast: 6/4 Champoluc, 4/1 Spring Dew, 5/1 Augustine, 6/1 Go Garuda, 8/1 Hellbent, 16/1 Big Mystery, 20/1 Dexileos, 50/1 Jaycee

Star, Louisville Prince


The 2 strongest stats ( + 2pts/-2pts)

Lingfield 12.25 - Horses at 12/1 and over are 0-97
Lingfield 12.25 - Horses with less than 3 races this season are poor (2-54)

The 3rd Strongest Stat ( +1.5pts / -1.5 Pts)

Lingfield 12.25 - Horses with less than 4 career starts struggle (2-53)
Lingfield 12.25 - Jockeys that claim are poor (1-37)

Other Stats

Lingfield 12.25 - No Age advantages but Colts (10-97) just shade fillies (Deduct 0.5 pts fillies)

Result

CHAMPOLUC 9.5 pts
BIG MYSTERY 7.5 pts
GO GARUDA 6.5 pts
HELLBENT 6.5 pts
AUGUSTINE 5 pts
SPRING DEW 4.5 pts
*********************


Lingfield 12.55 - AGGRAVATION has the best statistical chance

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Alphun, 5/2 Aggravation, 6/1 Kahlua Bear, 8/1 Bold Maggie, 10/1 Maple Branch, 12/1 Suturia, 16/1 La Cygne Blanche,

33/1 Silver Dane, 50/1 Canadian Danehill,

The 2 strongest stats ( + 2pts/-2pts)

Lingfield 11.55 - Fillies have a dreadfull 2-69 record (deduct 2pts)
Lingfield 11.55 - Horses at 8/1 and over are only 1-100 (deduct 2pts)

The 3rd Strongest Stat ( +1.5pts / -1.5 Pts)

Lingfield 11.55 - Horses that were 2nd , 3rd or 4th last time are best (10-33) (Add 1.5 pts)

Other Stats

Lingfield 11.55 - Horses coming from Wolverhampton are 0-17 (Deduct 0.5 pts)
Lingfield 11.55 - Horses that were either unraced (3-44) , Once raced (1-30) or twice raced (1-36) perform well below expectation

Result

AGGRAVATION 11.5 pts
ALPHUN 9 pts
KAHLUA BEAR 9 pts
CANADIAN DANEHILL 8 pts
BOLD MAGGIE 7 pts
SILVER DANE 7 pts
SUTURIA 6 pts
LA CYGNE BLANCHE 5.5 pts
MAPLE BRANCH 5 pts

*********************

Lingfield 1.25 - LATIN EXPRESS looks the each way bet at 8/1 and KING AFTER is a sensible saver

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Rancho Cucamonga, 6/1 King After, 7/1 Our Kes, 8/1 Latin Express, 10/1 Miss Tolerance, 12/1 Bold Cheverak, Gogetter

Girl, Town End Tom, Yardstick, 16/1 Midnight Lace, 20/1 Missed Turn, Ronnies Lad, Taipan Tommy, 50/1 Worth A Grand,


The 2 strongest stats ( + 2pts/-2pts)

Lingfield 1.25 - Horses that came from Class D or E last time are best (others 1-27) (Add 2pts)
Lingfield 1.25 - Colts (12-89) are over 3 times more likely to win than fillies (Add 2pts)

The 3rd Strongest Stat ( +1.5pts / -1.5 Pts)

Lingfield 1.25 - Horses with 8st 11lbs or more (9-58) beat those with 8st 10lbs or less (5-83) (Add 1.5 pts)
Lingfield 1.25 - Horses at 12/1 and over are only 1-65 (Deduct 1.5 pts)

Other Stats

Lingfield 1.25 - Horses with only 3 career races struggle (0-22) (deduct 1pt)
Lingfield 1.25 - Horses coming from Wolverhampton are 0-22 (deduct 0.5 pts)
Lingfield 1.25 - Claiming jockeys are only 1-25 (deduct 1pt)


Result

KING AFTER 15.5 pts
LATIN EXPRESS 15 pts
RANCHO CUCAMONGA 12 pts
MISS TOLERANCE 11.5 pts
YARDSTICK 11.5 pts
OUR KES 11 pts
BOLD CHEVERAK 11 pts
MIDNIGHT LACE 10.5 pts
GOGETTER GIRL 9.5 pts
TOWN END TOM 9.5 pts

*********************


Lingfield 1.55 - Slightly misleading stats but they suggest Shannon Arms is too short at 4/6. ZORN is top rated and the value but you would like to

see market support for him and I would prefer not to make a strong reccomendation in this race.

Betting Forecast: 4/6 Shannon Arms, 3/1 Mystic Lad, 10/1 Zorn, 14/1 Diamond Dancer, Ice Dragon, 20/1 Ravel, 25/1 Daisy Forever, Edin

Burgher, 50/1 Top Place,

The 2 strongest stats ( + 2pts/-2pts)

Lingfield 12.25 - Horses at 12/1 and over are 0-97 (Deduct 2pts)
Lingfield 12.25 - Horses with less than 3 races this season are poor (2-54) (Deduct 2pts)

The 3rd Strongest Stat ( +1.5pts / -1.5 Pts)

Lingfield 12.25 - Horses with less than 4 career starts struggle (2-53) (Deduct 1.5 pts)
Lingfield 12.25 - Jockeys that claim are poor (1-37) (Deduct 1.5 pts)

Other Stats

Lingfield 12.25 - No Age advantages but Colts (10-97) just shade fillies (Deduct 0.5 pts fillies)

Result

ZORN 10 pts
SHANNON ARMS 8.5 pts
RAVEL 8 pts
ICE DRAGON 7.5 pts
MYSTIC LAD 6.5 pts
DIAMOND DANCER 4 pts

*********************


Musselburgh 12.30 - The poor record of female horses suggests Rogues Gallery is a bad value favourite. He should be opposed and the

suggestion is DOLMUR each way at 9/2

Betting Forecast: 6/4 Rogues Gallery, 9/4 South Bronx, 9/2 Dolmur, 8/1 Best Flight, 10/1 Allez Scotia, 20/1 Palieter, 25/1 Flowing River, 33/1

Spycatcher,

The 2 strongest stats ( + 2pts/-2pts)
Musselburgh 12.30 - Female horses are dreadful (1-56) (deduct 2pts)
Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses that have never ran in at least Class E before struggle (1-36)(deduct 2pts)

The 3rd Strongest Stat ( +1.5pts / -1.5 Pts)

Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses at 6/1 and over are only 1-180 (deduct 1,5 pts)
Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses coming from Class G/H last time underperform (1-36) (deduct 1,5 pts)
Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses coming from a Maiden hurdle are weak (1-42) (deduct 1,5 pts)

Other Stats
Musselburgh 12.30 - Horses with 2 runs this year strangely have a poor 1-56 record
Musselburgh 12.30 - 4 year olds (11-69) are best (Add 0.5 pts)

Result

DOLMUR 9 pts
SOUTH BRONX 8.5 pts
BEST FLIGHT 7.5 pts (Unless under 6/1 add 2 pts)
ALLEZ SCOTIA 6.5 pts(Unless under 6/1 add 2 pts)
ROGUES GALLERY 5 pts

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