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Account Bet

Hereford 1.20

(7) EYES TO THE RIGHT

£15 Each Way

Plenty of 11/2 on Betfair and Odds against for a place. The horse is 9/2 with UK Betting but
6/1 with Sporting Odds and thats a big price. I think the afternoon show will be about 5/1.


There probably wont be an E Mail tomorrow unless a bet is advised. I will post on the board and
if anything is strong I will send it by SMS but its unlikely.


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Today's Racing


Win Lose or Draw today I feel the only way I can make proper profit over the jumps is to isolate myself into areas
that suit me and to concentrate hard in those areas. There will not be any bet this winter that I am not very confident about
or have not researched completely and today I have the first of these bets . Discussed fully below.


Hereford 1:20 Wyvern FM Selling Handicap Hurdle (Class G) (4yo+,0-95) 2m1f

Betting Forecast: 9/4 Great Ovation, 4/1 Maldoun, 5/1 Eyes To The Right, 8/1 Little Villain, 10/1 Misbehaviour, 14/1 Desert Spa, Jaseur, 16/1

Camaraderie, Shogoon, 20/1 El Zito, Trink Hill, 25/1 Flite Of Araby, 33/1 Glass Note, Littleton Amethyst,

This is the first Handicap over Hurdles that I have felt very confident in, and one that I feel I can get my teeth into. I Think the Key issue here is

Fitness and a recent run . Having a recent run is a huge advantage here enjoyed by 9 of the last 11 winners who all raced within 15 days of

winning this race. Good recent form is also a strong plus with almost every winner enjoying a good placed run last time out. 4 of the last 5 winners

came here having enjoyed a recent race, as did 4 of the last 5 runner ups. I have spent a long time on this race, played a lot of videos and applied

a lot of statistics and think I have come up with the only 2 horses that should be able to win this race.

I Think the KEY Piece of form in this race happened 7 days ago at Taunton in a Selling Handicap when EYES TO THE RIGHT beat GREAT

OVATION in a photo. I think this is definately a key race. In 2000 a horse called Seattle Alley came from the same race at Taunton before

coming here to win this race . Both horses run again today. Whatever happens , it has to be very close between these 2 horses and luck will take a

hand, but I stronly feel that Taunton run they both come from is streets ahead of the rest in terms of form, statistical advantages and fitness. Here

are a few reasons why I think this race revolves around this pair

MALDOUN 13/2 is not a horse I like and I think the owner sounds like he feels the same. Whilst this race has been dominated by high weights ,

and you have Martin Pipe against you, I feel MALDOUN is statistically and temprementally vulnerable. I dont like the fact he has had 33 days off

the track. Only 1 of the previous 11 winners of this race managed that and he wasnt in the 1st six home last time which is another statistical

imperative, but comments his owner made recently certainly out his chance in perspective. MALDOUN is owned by Stuart Barnes the former

England Rugby Union star . Just this week he said "MALDOUN is a bloody donkey and I want rid of him.The problem with Maldoun is he's too

nice a character. He's got no edge.Anyone that wants to buy him for £200 can have him". Even Timeform agree . They state MALDOUN " is

best avoided at any level now and typically uncooperative." . I Cant have him at all although he will like the drying ground.

LITTLE VILLAIN 7/1 only has 1 piece of form. I can see why the Racing Post have selected him but I didnt like him on Video last time. He

wasnt at all fluent and i,m not convinced that this step back in trip will suit him. There is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and a fast track and 2

miles looks inadequate for me . The fact he Has had a recent run is a serious "postive" for his chance but his jockey has never ridden a winner

before (0-22) and he is a Maiden (poor record in this race) and I much prefer the claims of my 2 selections. I also think LITTLE VILLAIN wont

like the drying ground. Both his parents were mudlarks and this trip on this ground could be way too fast for him. That said, the evidence is

superficial and he has been the subject of sustained support and is the best backed horse in the race.

EL ZITO 16/1 is statistically very strong and I admit to a few "demons" about the fact he is trained by Dai Burchell the trainer of Eye To The

Right. He also likes fast ground and was better than these a couple of seasons ago. However he has had plenty of problems and he was sold for

only £800 a couple of years ago .He than had almost 2 years off the track where he moved to Dai Burchell and his comeback race at Taunton 3

weeks ago was nothing particularly inspiring. If however he badly needed that , if he comes on a lot for the run , if he has recovered from what

went wrong in 2002 he does have the profile to win this race but these are big "if's". Another negative is the fact his female pilot has only ridden 2

races in her career and both rides were well beaten . I would mark him up as a very "Unlikely" winner but have a "careful" next to his name and

market support at a big price would be an interesting clue to his chance.

MISBEHAVIOUR 16/1 is another with a recent race but his stable is poor and you would question whether the drying ground could be against

him. Both his wins have been on soft ground and his pilot doesnt inspire much (5-271 record).

SHOGOON 20/1 is interesting coming back to Hurdles from Chases (statistically thats an advantage) but he fails what looks a strong weight stat

(Horses that carried 11st or less are just 1-97 ), and he has shown signs of being ungenuine and it doesnt augar well and the fact Micky Hammond

sold him for just £1400.

JASEUR 22/1 is "Ungenuine" and is showing no signs of having retained any ability and fails several stats such as Age , Last time out position and

his trainer is 0-30 here. He isnt fanciable at all.

DESERT SPA 25/1 is a slow horse. He was on the flat , and needed every inch of 12f and I think he will need further. His stable have also never

trained a winner before (0-34). He is an age thats never won this race before. He hasnt had a vitally important recent race and fails several other

stats such as not being in the first six last time out. I also think faster drying ground will hurt him as well.

CAMARADERIE 33/1 is going to find a 235 day lay off a big problem and he also fails several stats and having downgraded stables recently he

just hasnt shown enough.


The rest look dreadfull and I cant see anything but a 2 horse race here between EYES TO THE RIGHT and GREAT OVATION. I cant pretend

that I have any searching negatives for either horse that makes a clear selection of 1 horse over the other , I actually like them both very much in

this race and think they will dominate, and it may come down to luck and staking strategy that determines which is the better bet. Assuming that I

like them both and that they both have serious chances, these are the issues for me.


EYES TO THE RIGHT 6/1


EYES TO THE RIGHT has just beaten GREAT OVATION and I would say that usually a horse that beats another horse usually confirms it

again given the chance, and that for me , on Video I thought EYES TO THE RIGHT had more up his sleeve than GREAT OVATION and was

the better horse , tight as it was. I Did like him better on Video . I also feel much better that you are also getting a far better price with EYES TO

THE RIGHT and the chance to bet him each way . In such a weak race with no strength in depth that is a massive advantage. I also think that the

fast ground will help him as well . Most of last year and some of this year , he was trained by A Chamberlain who had never trained a winner from

135 runners but he was claimed for £6000 back in August and sent to Dai Burchell and thats a serious upgrade in stable. That has to have

improved him and I think we saw that at Taunton. I liked the way he travelled and as I said before I think he had a bit in hand and although he has

a weight rise from 69 to 77 and it will be harder , he was rated higher last year when trained by a bad stable.


GREAT OVATION 9/4

The reason he is favourite is that a) he has a weight pull of 7lbs with Eyes To The Right for a "Neck" defeat b) He has a better pilot and c) His

stable are flying and I can see very sound reasons why he ought to win.You can certainly argue that the 7lbs pull for a 1/4 length defeat entitles him

to win and you do have Warran Marston replacing A Evans and thats a pilot thats far better despite the statistic that says an apprentice rider is an

advantage in this race. For me his biggest strength is his brilliant stableform of Richard Phillips who is sending out winners for fun. Richard Phillips

recent runners *(under 33/1) have a record that defies all common sense lately ( 3 W 2 2 W W W 4 3 W) and thats a serious positive. The racing

post insinuate a few jumping flaws with this horse but I dont really buy that, and I wouldnt see that as a big issue.

I think that the biggest issue with GREAT OVATION is the price as you are forced into a win only bet whereas the other horse is serious value

each way. Thats the main reason why EYES TO THE RIGHT is given the vote. The lack of strength in depth makes this far more appealing. I

seriously considered a split stake bet . I am concerned that GREAT OVATION may try and pinch this from the front on fast ground leaving

EYES TO THE RIGHT (Usually held up) with too much ground to make up, (thats my biggest fear) but the frame of the race keeps bringing me

back to the each way bet and thats where I am going.

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Thursdays Stats


Market Rasen 2.10 - 6 renewals and 51 runners
Market Rasen 2.10 - 5 and 6 year olds won all 6 renewals. Horses aged 4 (0-5) and horses aged 7 + (0-22) are unproven
Market Rasen 2.10 - All 11 claiming jockeys lost
Market Rasen 2.10 - Horses at 6/1 and over are just 1-33 as 4 favs won
Market Rasen 2.10 - 3 horses carried penalties form winning last time and 2 of the 3 won
Market Rasen 2.10 - Last time out winners are the ones to be on. They are 5 from 9 with the other winner 2nd last time out. (Others 0-34)
Market Rasen 2.10 - All 9 horses that came from a Novice race lost as did all 6 that came from a Chase
Market Rasen 2.10 - 5 of the 6 winners had between 2 and 12 races. Those with 13 or more are just 1-28 and possibly overexposed
Market Rasen 2.10 - Seasonal debutants underperform (1-19) as horses having their 3rd race this season excel (3-8)
Market Rasen 2.10 - Northern trained horses underperform (1-30)
Market Rasen 2.10 - Lightweights have dominated. Horses carrying 11st + are 1-26 and the last 5 winners were between 10st 2lbs-10st 12lbs

Market Rasen 3.40 - 11 renewals and 63 runners
Market Rasen 3.40 - No Age issues . Horses that were 10/1 and over are just 0-16
Market Rasen 3.40 - Horses that had ran in Class B or higher before are just 1-22 and may not be ideal
Market Rasen 3.40 - All 5 horses that had a penalty in this race lost as did all 8 horses that came from a "Non Handicap"
Market Rasen 3.40 - Number of races this year isnt a clear issue but 2-6 starts are best (7-24)
Market Rasen 3.40 - Horses carrying 11st or over (8-27) are far better than those carrying 10st 13lbs or less (3-36)
Market Rasen 3.40 - Horses carrying 11st 10lbs or more fair very well (5-13)

Wincanton 3.00 - 13 renewals and 120 runners
Wincanton 3.00 - Horses that came from Chepstow are 4-8
Wincanton 3.00 - 5 year olds (8-47) are better than 6 year olds (2-36)
Wincanton 3.00 - Claiming jockeys are only 1-20
Wincanton 3.00 - Horses at 20/1 and over are 0-70
Wincanton 3.00 - Horses that came from Bumpers (NHF) are just 1-18
Wincanton 3.00 - Seasonal debutants are weak (2-38)

Wincanton 3.30 - 10 renewals and 50 runners
Wincanton 3.30 - All 5 claiming jockeys lost as did all 7 horses at 12/1 and over
Wincanton 3.30 - All 10 winners were either 1-2-3 last time out or Fell (others 0-12)
Wincanton 3.30 - Horses carrying 10st 10lbs or less struggle (1-13)

Hereford 12.50 - 4 renewals and 35 runners
Hereford 12.50 - All 4 races were won by jockeys that claimed an allowance (others 0-7)
Hereford 12.50 - Horses with 10st 13lbs or less were 0-18

Hereford 1:20 - There have been 11 similar renewals with 135 runners (Handicap Hurdle)
Hereford 1:20 - Horses aged 9 or more are 0-21. Horses aged 5 and under are just 2-38 as 6/7/8 year olds dominate (8-60)
Hereford 1:20 - You want a jockey that claims a weight alllowance (others 2-59)
Hereford 1:20 - Female horses are just 1-28
Hereford 1:20 - Horses at 16/1 and over are 0-46
Hereford 1:20 - Finishing in the 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time is an advantage (others 2-61 including 1 that fell)
Hereford 1:20 - Horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time are best (6-31)
Hereford 1:20 - Horses coming from Chases are 2-4 and cant be discounted
Hereford 1:20 - You want at least 7 career starts over jumps (Others 1-27)
Hereford 1:20 - Seasonal debutants are 0-24 and best avoided and horses with 6 + races this year or more are 0-17
Hereford 1:20 - Maidens struggle (1-66)
Hereford 1:20 - You really need to have 11st 1lbs or more (9-35) . Those with 11st or less are just 1-84 (Not counting the Claim !!!)
Hereford 1:20 - Horses with 10st 6lbs or less are 0-53 (Not counting the claim)
Hereford 1:20 - Running within 15 days is an advantage (8-52) as horses that didnt run within 15 days are 2-64 and within 31 days 1-49

Hereford 1:50 - There have been 13 similar renewals with 182 runners (Novice Hurdle)
Hereford 1:50 - Horses that have never ran in at least Class D before are 0-28
Hereford 1:50 - You need to have ran within 15 days (others 1-45)
Hereford 1:50 - Favourites won the last 5 renewals
Hereford 1:50 - You want a 1-2-3-4-5 placing last time (others 1-45 and that winner fell last time)
Hereford 1:50 - Experience- Any number of runs is fine but 3 or 4 runs are best (3-11)
Hereford 1:50 - Horses coming from Class E F or G last time are 0-35
Hereford 1:50 - All 28 Northern trained horses lost

Hereford 2:20 - There have been 13 similar renewals with 110 runners (Novice Handicap Chase)
Hereford 2:20 - Horses at 12/1 and over underperform (2-55) as Favourites are 7-14
Hereford 2:20 - Horses that were 1st/2nd last time fair well (6-20)
Hereford 2:20 - You want between 5 and 20 starts (11-73) with horses that had 21 + starts overexposed (1-22)
Hereford 2:20 - Seasonal debutants underperform (2-24)

Hereford 3:50 - There have been 7 similar renewals with 42 runners (Handicap Chase)
Hereford 3:50 - Horses that had ran in Class B before or higher are 0-12
Hereford 3:50 -Horses at 10/1 and over are 0-14
Hereford 3:50 - Horses with 11st or over (6-25) beat those with under 11st (1-17)


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