Salisbury has had an inspection this am.

I am just trying to tinker things and try and find some form. I have not been reading many races right and feel the Recent rain has been partly responsible alongside many other factors like Adjusting to multiple meetings and night racing and generally coping with the workload.Aprils never easy but the good thing about my current format is that we dont have to bet or force the situation and there are no Time issues and one of the reasons to go down the £3k
route is to take off any pressure from betting when clearly not reading the races correctly.I have spent a lot of time on Beverleys Card though and do have some clear opinions. If
Salisbury is on I will have a look in the morning and post any thoughts on the message boardmbut Heavy Ground there does look to make betting there difficult.

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Account Bets

No Bets

Not reading enough races well enough to want to advise a bet at this stagemalthough there are several horses I like on the day. In my opinion the easietmway to make money today , and to ensure as risk free a bet as possible would
be to play Von Wessex and Cesare in an each way double at 2/1 and 4/5 although that wont appeal to everyone.

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Today's Racing


Beverley 2.20 We Appreciate Our Wives Claiming Stakes (Class F) (2yo) 5f

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Von Wessex, 5/2 Straffan, 3/1 Why Harry, 14/1 Frisby Ridge, 16/1 Our Louis, 20/1 Hunipot, Story Of One, 33/1 Fold Walk.

Selection - Von Wessex

# 2 Year Old Claimer
# Only 1 previous renewal so no relevant stats
# No clear water on the numbers
# The Racing Post changed the price of Why Harry from 9/2 to 3/1 before their last copy

This is not an easy race to fathom but I am firmly behind VON WESSEX form Bill Turners assuming he can handle the ground. Market rival STRAFFAN got outpaced at Warwick and looks like she needs further. I can see problems for her at this trip and obvious problems if she gets behind and loses tactical advantages with the draw and the rails. WHY HARRY has a race in him and is impossible to rule out with any degree of confidence but I much prefer VON WESSEX the favourite.VON WESSEX needed his 1st race at Doncaster then was unrideable at Lingfield and nearly ran out . Whatever ideosyncratic problem he had there was cured when winning at Yarmouth at 20/1 where he broke well and had the rail and repelled all challenges. That might have turned out to be a good race as the runner up trained by John Best is well thought of and the 3rd (Peter Chappel Hyam) was backed as if a certainty that day. I Think VON WESSEX will win this today because of his early pace and the fact he
should be able to get to the front and grab the rail . The ground might just be against him if it was genuinely soft but if it is Good to soft I would be confident he could handle it I think 7/4 is a fair price and I think he will win today

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Beverley 2:50 Constant Security Maiden Stakes (Class D) (3yo+) 1m½f (1m100y)

Betting Forecast: 4/5 Cesare, 5/1 Premier Dream, 6/1 Chanteloup, 10/1 Adees Dancer, 16/1 Lucky Piscean, 25/1 Estepona, 33/1 Illicium, Kalishka, Let's Party, Snowed Under, Top Achiever.

# 6 previous renewals
# There could be possibility they come down the stands rail negating the draw advantage for high numbers.
# 4 Year olds have poor records. All 12 have been unplaced (Illicium, Lets Party)
# 2 Fillies have won this race in 2003 and 2002
# Seasonal Deburtants have won 5 of the 6 renewals

Selection - CESARE - (Danger-Adees Dancer)

I Think CESARE from James Fanshaw will win and land the short priced double with the opening race favourite. The Only horse I am afraid of is ADEES DANCER .

CHATELOUP and CESARE are both James Fanshaw trained runners. CESARE has had a race and CHANTELOUP is unraced . The stats say that Seasonal Deburtants have won 5 of the 6 renewals, but that is "Seasonal Debutants" and NOT Unraced horses. If you look at ALL 3 year old maidens at this trip at Beverley in the last 13 years there have been 47 unraced
horses try and win and only 1 has won and that was back in 1991 which should make you consider whether you want an
unraced horse on these undulations although its only fair to point out that from these 47 runners only 11 started at 10/1 or less.mThats why I have to oppose CHATELOUP and stay with his stablemate CESARE. This is an interesting horse. CESARE is once-raced and was 2nd at Warwick on his debut. Was not a great time but he met a strongly fancied horse and made him pull out all the stops when he was reported as being "Green and backward" for his debut. The horses behind him were pretty poor but CESARE and the winner beat them easily and were in a league of their own. I liked him on video and he was not bashed about and looked like he would come on a ton for the race.I dont like the fact he is a small horse but he should still win this and I like the fact that this track/trip is 8 seconds longer to race than Warwick was as CESARE is bred for further and will love the
extra yardage. He would have won at Warwick at this trip last time. His stable are in great form and he is a Cheveley Park Stud horse and they dont have many bad types. PREMIER DREAM flopped "First time out" behind todays favourite CESARE and being a son of Woodman he may not have handled the ground that day. His second run was ok but he has plenty to do on the numbers and the ground is the issue . He is also not reported to be anything special and I dont fancy him to beat the Fanshaw runner. The best form "on paper" comes from ADEES DANCER who ran once at Newcastle last year. There is a doubt about the ground with her but the fact she is a filly and not raced this year is statistically not a problem. You would have made money
betting Bryan Smart blind at Beverley over the years, and money solely in April , and his runners at Beverley in 3 year old maidens show a 2 from 7 record . ADEES DANCER is very much an "Unknown" factor today and hard to rate. Thats why I have him as the danger as I am not afraid of anything else. I would say the favourite stops becoming value at 1.79.


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Beverley 3:20 Jaguar Centre Stakes (Handicap) (Class C) (3yo,0-90) 7½f (7f100y)

Betting Forecast: 9/4 Wistman, 3/1 Imperialistic, Man Of Letters, 8/1 Kingsmaite, 10/1 Royal Distant, 12/1 Wavertree Girl, 16/1 Vademecum.

# 6 Renewals won 4 times by horses that ran within 2 weeks of this race and 2 horses unraced that year

Selection - No Selection

Three year old handicaps are always very tough to manage and lack of similar races here over the years has not made the job any easier. WAVETREE GIRL (12/1) tries to win this 0-90 from running in Maidens, which has not been done before (8 have tried) and with a doubt about her last run and the ground she isnt one I would bet. I dont like ROYAL DISTANT (10/1) either. She has downgraded from Gosden to Easterby and I suspect she will deteriorate not progress. KINGSMAITE (8/1) ran well at Doncaster in a big field and he will come on for the run. He also acts on soft ground. Has a bit to find on these and is from an unfashionable stable but I would not rule him out of this. The fact that his stableare not having winners is the problem.
MAN OF LETTERS (3/1) is coming from Maiden Company and although a negative I would not get too hung up on that stat. Mark Johnston is a trainer to fear , but this horse ran a little dissapointingly on soft ground at Warwick last time and the runner up has come out and been a beaten Fav. Question marks to answer In my opinion much as his stable are always respected, and I am concerned that he does carry his head high and does not look a scopey type. That said his trainer does make a profit here under these circumstances and he could easily be a horse that has a better chance than he looks to have "On paper" which is something you often get with Johnston runners and something you learn to live with in 3 year old handicaps. IMPERIALISTIC is very interesting. Her yard won this race in 1999 and her form is solid Class C handicap form which is always better to consider than Maiden form.She won last time at Haydock in decent class (surprised me as I did not think she would stay a mile) in a race sponsored by his owners. My fear with her is a) She had a hard race at Haydock b) She is up 6lbs c) Topweights are 0/8 in this race and d) She is a filly giving weight to everything. She ran all over the place at Haydock but I think that was the
horse running outof Petrol . On form she has a solid chance but there are some concerns. I do not feel drawn to any runner particularly.

WISTMAN (9/4) is another thats coming directly from Maiden class. I dislike that. He won his maiden and He looks like he will relish the stiffer track but his maiden form looks average. They finished in a heap and the runner up hated the ground and has been a beaten Fav since. There is also a doubt the ground. This is Good to Soft as it was at Folkestone but his breeding and his direct family have a fast ground look to them although I should not quibble too much as he has just won on G-Soft. He appears well handicapped and from a powerful yard that place their horses well he has to be a big runner but he is under 15/8 in the market already and I think there are better bets at his price several times a week.I dont think the Outsider is out of this by any means if Fit.

VADEMECUM (16/1) is a big colt with scope trained by Brian Smart. He won a maiden and then ran 3rd in a Novice Event last season when improving all year. Bryan Smart interestingly said last year " This is a big colt who has never stopped improving and I think I ran him over too far when I tried him over a mile in his last race of the year . He could be my secret weapon for next year." As discussed
earlier Bryan Smart has a good record here. This looks his best trip and he might be worth a speculative bet at 16's

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Beverley 3:50 Birthday Celebration Handicap (Class E) (3yo,0-75) 1m2f (1m1f207y)

Betting Forecast: 4/1 Platinum Pirate, 5/1 Time To Relax, 6/1 Another Choice, 8/1 Baboushka, Raheed, 10/1 Dunlea Dancer, Nafferton Heights, 12/1 The King Of Rock, 14/1 Athollbrose, Hernando's Boy, 16/1 Our Kid, 20/1 Named At Dinner.

# No real stats of interest despite 10 renewals
# First time out horses have the same 4 from 40 record as those horses that ran once this year suggesting no fitness bias
# Fillies are 1 from 18

There is quite a bit of strength in depth here. My Strongest Negatives are Baboushka and Raheed .Overall the mixture of being slightly out of form and seeing plenty of strength in depth in this race leads me to pass it over as too hard . I see horses are 12/1 and 14/1 that have reasonable chances and I feel its quite open.


PLATINUM PIRATE 4/1 - Looks the wrong favourite to me. Plenty to do on the numbers although an edge in fitness must helpI would say he has no more of a chance than several here and while giving him a chance he would not interest me.

TIME TO RELAX 5/1 - Solid chance on numbers, but finished in a heap last time beating only fillies and has to prove she can stay and act on soft.

ANOTHER CHOICE 6/1- - Excellent chance. Running on nicely last time over 8f with apprentice. Darley takes over. Should stay and infact improve for the trip. You could fancy him for this but the Littmoden stableform is off-putting.

BABOUSHKA 8/1 - Inexperienced Filly but this race has been won 3 times by horses with 3 or less Career starts like her. I can find nothing I like about her though and she was downgraded in stables over the winter. Has too much to find for me.

RAHEED 8/1 - Ed Dunlops gelding is now handicapped and moves up in distance in line with breeding. Many will fancy him assuming that he has been running down the field in maidens so he gets a low handicap mark. He is not for me. I did not like him on video last time and he was well beaten and hardly given a "Ride for the future" and when you look at Ed Dunlops record with 3 year olds in handicaps that have unplaced in 3 maiden races prior to getting their handicap mark he only has a 1 from 61 record. Compare that to the likes of Prescott (30%) and you can see this is not Dunlops style. Ed Dunlop does not win with his
handicappers on their 4th start, he tries it on their 5th start. On their 5th start Dunlop has a 7 from 42 record and a £13 LSP. This leads me to believe that Raheed will need this race before he wins and visually I had the same feeling.

DUNLEA DANCER 10/1- Hard to fancy on all known form and signs are he will need the race. He also has to prove he can act on the ground but is from a powerful stable and if supported in the market has to be respected.

NAFFERTON HEIGHTS 10/1- Very hard to fancy. Comes from bad maiden at Newcastle that has not worked out and the
fact he started at 100/1 in that race does not suggest much ability.

THE KING OF ROCK 12/1- Has not got a lot to find on the book and possibly improving. He ran well last time when 5th
but was clearly hamperered and lost momentum. If he can build on that and this drop in trip does not hurt him he is not out of it but he lacks the required positives to distinguish him as a bet

ATHOLLBROSE 14/1 - Held by Platinum Pirate but needed the run on his debut but shaped well and could have finished
closer after being eased down. Stable won this a couple of years ago and improvement is assured. Not out of this at all.

HERNANDOS BOY 14/1- I fancy others more but not entirely out of it. Will like the ground.
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Beverley 4:20 Racing Again On Saturday 8th May Fillies' Handicap (Class E) (4yo+,0-70) 1m2f (1m1f207y)

Betting Forecast: 6/1 Got To Be Cash, 7/1 Olivia Rose, Transcendantale, Untidy Daughter, 8/1 Megan's Magic, 10/1 Acola, Dash Of Magic, 12/1 Half Inch, Karathaena, 14/1 Dormy Two, Jade Star, Life Is Beautiful, 25/1 Desires Destiny, Green Ocean, Uno Mente.

# There have been 8 renewals
# Four year olds have won the last 4 renewals and 7 of the 8 renewals
# 5 Year olds are 0 from 27 in the race but to be fair 22 of them were 10/1 or bigger
# Topweights have a decent 3 from 14 record
# The Bottom 3 horses in the weights have a 0 from 27 record and might lack the class
# Horses carrying 8st 7lbs or more have a 0 from 49 record again suggesting you bet horses with more weight
# Horses carrying 8st or less have a 0 from 16 record
# Seasonal Debutants have a 3 from 26 record and are to be respected.

The stats clearly say that you should stay with 4 year olds in the top half of the weights. That may or may not work out today, I am pretty open minded about that. I dont like KARATHAENA as she did not do enough last time. ACOLA is "dark" but has nothing in her profile that I like. GOT TO BE CASH mike not have the Class . I have watched all of these on tape and had a good look at the race and only like 2 runners in UNTIDY DAUGHTER and HALF INCH.

UNTIDY DAUGHTER has dreadfull Flat form but improved over hurdles. She was described as "too weak to last home in her
races" last year. If her improvement over jumps has been due to improving physically and finding her form then she could be a handicap certainty off 55 and 7/1 is a reasonable risk to find out . I give her a big chance. The other runner I like is HALF INCH who is fit and ran very well at Folkestone without the cheekpieces that are back today. She is Well drawn and looks to have every chance today.
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Beverley 4:50 Go Racing In Yorkshire Season Ticket Median Auction Maiden Stakes (Class E) (3yo) 1m4f (1m4f16y)

Betting Forecast: 5/4 Vantage, 9/4 At Your Request, Serengeti Sky, 33/1 Holly Walk.

This is the kind of race I need David Milnes to sort with AT YOUR REQUEST (Ed Dunlop) and SERENGETI SKY (Loder)
but he has no strong feelings about the race and has not offered a way into the contest. That suggests that there are unanswerable issues. VANTAGE offers the solid handicap form I like in a maiden and clearly looks safest but AT YOUR REQUEST has more improvement and if SERENGETI SKY had a genuine reason for a dismal run last time (when made 4/7 to beat At Your Request) he could sweep past them all. Add to that a small field and tactical issues it looks nasty.