Pretty hard today with the Rain an issue and the sheer density. Havent done a big write up as I have
tried to concentrate on Fitness, and Video Analysis today. Decided on my best bet in the 7.15 at
Yarmouth. This wouldnt be strong enough to be an account bet but its a race I want to play in having
watched every runner on Tape and I feel the prices are right. There wont be a message tomorrow.

Personal Bets

Yarmouth 7.15 Esperance £200 (approx 6/1 + )
Yarmouth 7.15 Anisette £50 Saver (approx 10/1)

* If you bet Esperance be very aware there will be a Rule 4 on Betfair . I would take 6/1 later rather
than 8/1 now as they havent adjusted their market.

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Tonights Racing


I had planned to attack Kempton but its a horrible card and I have no confidence there at all.


Kempton 6:00 The Commitments Live Tonight Apprentice Handicap (Class E) (3yo+,0-75) 1m

Betting Forecast: 4/1 Moscow Times, 9/2 Burgundy, 6/1 Listen To Reason, 13/2 Balerno, 7/1 Fen Gypsy, 8/1 The Gaikwar, 9/1 Gran
Clicquot, 10/1 Fleetwood Bay, 14/1 Espada, 20/1 Lizarazu, 33/1 Catch The Fox,

Negatives - LISTEN TO REASON 6/1 + MOSCOW TIMES

Although there is only 1 renewal of this race at Kempton, there have been 14 "identical" races at this time of year in this class on any track and
from that I know that 3 year olds struggle badly in them and are just 1 from 37. I feel thats reason alone to oppose LISTEN TO REASON
but there are other reasons. He could easily "Bounce" having come and won a maiden after a long absence and with having only 1 run this year
I think thats woerfully inadequate. In fact all 26 horses that had less than 4 starts this year were beaten in these 14 similar renewals and I just
cant have this horse. He has also never done the trip before. I Think MOSCOW TIMES is also a horse worth taking on simply as a 3 year
old with that 1 from 37 record.

The rest of them are tightly matched. I have a lot of time for FEN GYPSY especially if the rains come especially with a strong fitness edge and
you cant split FLEETWOOD BAY and THE GAIKWAR who had nothing between them over Course and Distance last week. Of the 2 its
hard to call. FLEETWOOD BAY is a horse I just prefer on profile but THE GAIKWAR was more impressive of the 2 on Video.
BALERNO is a solid exposed benchmark with every chance and BURGANDY is also in form. This race will depend on how fast or slow
they go and who gets the best positioning and with Apprentice Riders its hard to predict how the race will map out. I would be more confident
of the negatives than any of the positives. At the prices I am most tempted with FLEETWOOD BAY and would view the very fit FEN
GYPSY as reasonable saver material.

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I dont like the Nursery (6.30) or the Maiden (7.00) as you just have horses with hidden ability. The Maiden sees a vulnerable favourite on
MILLINKSY who looks very short to be at odds on. She has had a break, and has been beaten by lowly rated horses and I would be
considering opposing her especially with the nice Each Way Frame to the race. SCARLET BREEZE has a great chance and the Money for
Peter Makins unraced HEAVENS WALK looks interesting. This maiden is so bad that anything unraced must have a chance and Makin has
his form in good order, he is + £47.75 in the last 5 years with his unraced 2 year olds and I wouldnt rule him out at 5/1 . I am staying with
SCARLET BREEZE as a horse that has handicap form running in a maiden and thats just what you want,

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Yarmouth 5.45 Betting Forecast: 11/4 Astyanax, 3/1 Euippe, 11/2 Theatre Lady, 13/2 Bobsleigh, 7/1 Siegfrieds Night, 12/1 Eight, Mischief,
16/1 Makarim, 20/1 Redspin,

I think I would have to try and Oppose ASTYANNAX from Mark Prescotts yard. He won this race last year but I think weight for age will
beat him now. He was a 3 year old then , and as the stats show they are favoured , yet now as a 4 year old he has to "Concede" it rather than
"recieve" it. As an example look at a horse like EUDIPE thats rated 69 . Last year ASTYANAX beat a horse rated 69 into 2nd place.
Because of the weight for age ASTYANAX was getting 9lbs in weight . This year , partly because he is older he has to concede 16lbs to the
horse rated 69 in this years race (Eudipe) and thats a huge 25lbs turnaround and thats what will beat him in my opinion. This is a race that
certainly favours topweights and I would want to hover around the few runners that fit that criteria. EUDIPE as a filly is statistically very solid.
Fillies have a great record, as do 3 year olds and she has a very serious chance but I think I would rather stay with BOBSLEIGH who I liked
on Video and who has a great Yarmouth record. BOBSLEIGH isnt as statistically "Bombproof" as Eudipe but he comes from a very
encouraging run at Goodwood, and has a great record here especially at thie time of year a couple of days ago. He is fit now and almost back
to his last winning mark. He loves this flat galloping track and whats really done it for me is that this horse has never been asked to race in
Class F in his life before . I think Each Way at 5/1 he is a pretty solid bet.THEATRE LADY is respected but I think BOBSLEIGH can give
her the weight.

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Yarmouth 6.15 Betting forecast: 10/11 Morahib, 9/2 Senor Eduardo, 6/1 Ivory Coast, 8/1 Arms Acrossthesea, Private Seal, 12/1 Big Bad
Burt, 16/1 Kingston Town,

MORAHIB has been running last year in Class B handicaps. SENOR EDUARDO has just won a bad seller. The Gulf in class is enormous
but you have to ask why a) Tregonning let MORAHIB go over the winter to Musson and b) Why Musson chooses to run him in a Claimer
first time out and c) why he is drifting out to 11/8. Musson wouldnt be the best trainer for seasonal debutants *(2 from 58 in 5 years) and I
would be sceptical that this horse hasnt had severe problems. ARMS ACROSSTHESEA will relish the return to this trip but he is only
average and I worry about him in a small field. I dont want a 3 year old in a claimer, not least a filly and IVORY COAST looks opposable. I
feel KINGSTON TOWN might need another run to be completely fit and I like SENOR EDUARDO and think that he can defy what does
look a rise in Class. There have only been 5 renewals of this race but 4 of them went to "last time out winners" in weaker grades and this horse
has just proven his well being by easily winning a Seller by 4 lengths. I would stay with him as he is in form, fit , running well and loves the
track. He is certain to give his running which the others are not and although he might just get found out for "Class" , he does have a lot going
for him and I think he is the value bet in the race. Watch the market with BIG BAD BOB. Two firms have cut him to 12/1 yet as I type the
exchanges are 20/1 +. This horse has been cheating recently (alledgedly) and is owned by midlands bookmakers who made such a mess of
his last run that I am surprised they werent investigated. They are capable of anything.

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Yarmouth 7.15 Betting Forecast: 7/2 Zonnebeke, 6/1 Mac´s Talisman, 13/2 Danifah, 8/1 Esperance, 11/1 Anisette, Leitrim Rock, Lilian,
14/1 Taiyo, 16/1 Kilminchy Lady, 20/1 Lenwade, 20/1 Roving Vixen, Newtown Chief,

Strange little race this but I really like it and want to concentrate here for my best bet of the day. Video analysis leans me to ANISETTE at
10/1 and ESPERANCE at 10/1 .

The vote goes to ESPERANCE as He is just the more solid. ANISETTE looks a significant "Trip dropper" after leading Masafi, a horse she
could never beat at Brighton over 10f to about 3f out and she had the rest of the field in a lot of trouble. Earlier in the year she had been held
up and slowly away yet she tried to race from the front last time and she looked much better suited to that. Take out Masafi from that race,
then at the mile post she had destroyed a field that was absolutely no worse than this one is. I cant understand the Post comments that she is
"going the wrong way". Think thats unfair. She might well have been racing over trips she hasnt been staying. I think her biggest problem might
be the ground. I want a saver on her though but ESPERANCE is the selection. ESPERANCE came from a better race Than this, could not
have been expecetd to win it, yet was tenderly handled and eased once beaten and although still a maiden must have a chance . His trainer Jon
Akehurst has had 2 recent winners and has a 2 from 8 record here since 1999 . I Like him a lot.

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Other Thoughts

Pontefract 2.50 - MY HOPE impressed me on tape last time and I think she can beat the favourite SILVERHAY. I did quite like DAGOLA
who is a horse I have been watching and is capable of landing a gamble on fast ground. He has been running well and was running on nicely at
Salisbury last time, and as this trip is over 3 seconds stiffer, and the rain has kept away (you would need to monitor the weather) then I feel he
is ready to go close but I have to consider MY HOPE as having far more improvement, especially under Roger Charltons care. She came
there cantering at Bath before the well handicapped winner got first run and I dont thing she stayed the last furlong well. Back to a mile I was
taken with her cruising speed and if she didnt have any improvement she would have been sold by now. 6/1 MY HOPE looks reasonable.

Newcastle 4.00 - I would be very surprised if that old mule Mehmaas could win again after sickening me last time and watching Inchdura on
tape I doubt he is ready to win either. I have this between MALLARD and PARISIAN PLAYBOY, both of whom will relish soft ground.
The draw could yet have a say into the outcome . I would be betting 1 and saving on the other at 5/1 and 5/1 and one should win.

Kempton 8.00 - James Fanshaw's DUBROVSKY has been the subject of a major gamble from 18/1 to 7/1 and I was told before his last run
that he was a certainty and he was backed like one before running badly. There must be some reason why that happened, and the money
does look significant today and I wouldnt want to lay him as he is a horse thats highly thought of. His breeding suggest soft ground but
Fanshaw has always stated he takes after the Dam and wants fast ground , and he will get that tonight. The money does look significant.

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