Today's Racing

I am leaving Windsor alone after Heavy rain yesterday and Musselburgh is dreadful.Today just a few thoughts for Pontefract with nothing advised as a bet.


Pontefract 2.15 Betting Forecast:

Betting Forecast: 1/3 Tagula Sunrise, 4/1 Mimi Mouse, 14/1 Halla San, 25/1 Hillside Heather, Pro Tempore, 50/1 Hamburg Springer.

Should be victory for TAGULA SUNRISE but it might not be as simple as that. She had a hard race last time, its a different track and Tim Easterby has won this race 3 times before and could coax some improvement out of MIMI MOUSE who might be worth a small e/w interest at about 5/1 . I quite likes MIMI MOUSE on video last time. HALLA SAN was described as one of the most forward of Linda Ramsdens 2 year olds but should not really be good enough to split the front 2 in the market.

Conclusion - Rather than take the odds on I would rather bet MIMI MOUSE each way to minimum stakes.

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Pontefract 2.45 Betting Forecast: 7/2 Scorchio, 4/1 Let It Be, 5/1 Valiant Air, 6/1 Royal Upstart, 8/1 Ciacole, 10/1 Defana, 14/1 Theatre Belle, 16/1 Bienheureux, Reedsman, Weaver Spell, 33/1 Baroque

This is a dreadfully poor contest and some serious slow coaches in the race. One of the interesting points about the 6 renewals of this race is that Fillies have won 5 of them and colts only 1 from a similar number of runners and the female sex look to have an advantage here. The fillies in this race are Theatre Belle , Ciacole and Let It Be. Another interesting point is that horses starting 10/1
or over in this race are 0 from 61 and the market can be trusted to sort them out.with all winnners coming from the first 4 in the betting. I would also be a little wary of horses that had ran just the once this year. Watching a few video's on the runnners I have ROYAL UPSTART down as a very doubtful stayer. He didnt look like he stayed at Redcar. I thought LET IT BE ran well enough to consider here especially as this trip might draw improvement in her. VALIANT AIR would have to be forgiven a few things but
thats not impossible to do. He came to win the race last time but didnt look to stay 14f to me in rain softened ground (Several winners have won this race dropping back in trip) and his heavy defeat the time before at Nottingham might well have been down to the soft ground and 14f . If thats correct, and If you can forgive him a bad run on Southwells sand , which I can often do , then he comes into this race as a serious runner much as i would prefer a filly. SCORCHIO was harder to read, she was an encouraging 4th in a better race and because of the ratings of the other runners in that race I have to give her a chance. Overall through Video Analysis the only 1 of the market leaders I would rule out with confidence would be ROYAL UPSTART but I think the Racing Post have it right in saying "could pay to go with one of those with proven stamina" and I agree with their selection VALIANT
ROYAL but fear both the Filly LET IT BE and Scorchio. BIENHEUREUX should be monitored carefully in the market as this is better than he looks and could improve at the trip .Each Way 5/1 VALIANT AIR could be a free bet as long as he runs his race, as long as the blinkers dont have a negative effect.

Conclusion- I can see the sense in VALIANT AIR each way at 5/1, but I am mindful this race has been dominated by fillies and an alternative might be to "Split stake" VALIANT AIR and LET IT BE for a combined price of about 9/4 .


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Pontefract 3:15 EBF Gerrard Wealth Management Fillies' Handicap (Class D) (3yo+,0-85) 6f

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Cloud Dancer, 4/1 Complication, 5/1 Favour, 8/1 Baron Rhodes, Sharoura, 10/1 Bint Royal, 12/1 College Queen, 14/1 Dani Ridge, Just One Smile, 20/1 Marabar, 50/1 Bowling Along.

A Few stats of interest. The first tells me that from the 6 renewals there have been 3 shock results and nothing can be taken for granted. 3 Year olds have a 1 from 27 record in this race whereas 4 year olds have a 4 from 21 record and that puts me off the 3 year old BARON RHODES as this trip is a sprint trip and its really longer trips where the weight for age advantage kicks in. She is described as a "soft ground horse" so if it goes soft you can look upon her with a lot more confidence than if it didnt. She also has to prove she wants 6f and has to do so taking on older horses and on a career high handicap mark.

All past winners of this race (6) won having ran in the last fortnight. So many of these today ran 15 or 16 days ago and it seems wrong to count them out as a result of that but the horse with the longest absence to overcome is FAVOUR but as she won first time out as a 2 year old and after a 27 day absence before I wouldnt rule her out and cant see any obvious edges with the absence statistics. FAVOUR , like DANI RIDGE and SHAROURA Has had only 2 races this year and horses with less than 3 starts still
havent managed to win a race and that would worry me more about their chances. JUST ONE SMILE didnt shape like a future winner last time out much as that was a better race than this and she may want 7f .

Statistically you can oppose DANI RIDGE for 2 reasons. Firstly the fact she has had only 2 starts and the fact that horses carrying 9st 9lbs or more in this race are only 1 from 36 but I am mindful that she is the "Class" horse in the race and has been running well in far better class.
She is in foal to Invincible Spirit and only has about 3 weeks to race before she hits the paddocks and Eric Alston is on record as expecting her to win before that happens. I do worry about the fast ground though. Had this been soft ground at 12/1 she would have been the selection.
I Dont rule her out on either of the negative stats, just on the ground but I could well be wrong and i do think 12/1 is a big price despite the ground.

CLOUD DANCER was impressive last time. She won a York 6f handicap on William Hill Trophy day and ran only half a second slower than Two Step Kid did in that race and she flew down the stands side to win at York from behind, which is a feat in itself and I can understand why shes popular in the market . If you choose to ignore the Topweight in this race (Dani Ridge) then all she faces today is a 0-73 field and this is a big drop in class and she will love this slightly stiffer track (5 seconds stiffer than York at 6f). She is still probably well handicapped. My problems with her are these. 1) Value at the price ? 2) Kevin Ryan is on my Axis of Evil list 3) Her win was after a 3 months absence and will she reproduce that today 4) She isnt a 4 year old.

BINY ROYAL won this in 2002 and was 6th in the 2003 renewal but this looks potentially a classier race today and I am not overkeen on her. She has a chance but I prefer others. SHAROURA attempts to become the first 8 year old to win this race although none have tried. She was hampered last time, but she didnt do enough for me on tape last time and the fact she has only had 2 runs this year puts me off her. This is also a step up in class.

COMPLICATION messed the start up at Windsor and subsequently lost all the track bias advantages that day and had to do things the hard way. That realy spoilt any chance she had and she ran a decent race in 4th without being knocked about down the unfavoured middle of the track. I think she is very interesting, and she is a 4 year old and I think she can probably beat CLOUD DANCER. Overall a tough open sprint. I do like CLOUD DANCER but just prefer COMPLICATION as a 4 year old with a bit more improvement in her and if there is another shock then JUST ONE SMILE might be the one.

Conclusion - Dani Ridge would have been the pick to defy the stats had it been soft ground, but its not and The selection is COMPLICATION Each Way, but it is just a marginal one .

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Pontefract 3:45 Spindrifter Conditions Stakes (Class C) (2yo) 6f

Betting Forecast: 1/2 Leo's Lucky Star, 6/1 African Breeze, Space Shuttle, 12/1 Tiviski, 16/1 Bunny Rabbit, 25/1 Tom Forest,
33/1 Tantien, 66/1 Den Perry, The Plainsman.

10 renewals and 6 of them went to the favourite and LEO'S LUCKY STAR attempts to win the race for his stable for the 2nd year
in a row. He hasnt been seen since May though and no horse has managed that so far. Another concern would be the fact that his
trainer already states that he wants 7f and this is 6f . You also have the obvious problem that he is a terribly short price for a 2 year
old and that he looks to come from a quirky family. I wouldnt want to be taking odds on about him much as he has an obvious
chance. I think there are better odds on chances every week. I Much prefer TIVISKI and AFRICAN BREEZE to SPACE
SHUFFLE and those two would be the obvious dangers for me.

Conclusion - If I was betting, which I am not a small Place only bet on Tiviski, at about 13/8 would appeal more than betting the
favourite at 1/2 to win the race.

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Pontefract 4:45 betfair.com Apprentice Series (Round 3) Handicap (Class E) (3yo+,0-70) 1m2f (1m2f6y)

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Realism, 7/2 Market Avenue, 4/1 Night Market, 6/1 Smart John, 8/1 Valeureux, 12/1 We'll Meet Again, 16/1
Derwent, Penwell Hill, 20/1 Given A Chance, 33/1 Dragon Prince.

Despite 13 similar renewals of this race there are not many clear stats . 10 of the winners carried 8st 10lbs or less which is quite
interesting. I dont like DERWENT or DRAGON PRINCE. I think PENWELL HILL is hard to fancy after an absence. GIVEN A
CHANCE looks a little outclassed from a stable out of form.VALEUREUX has been performing with credit over hurdles and has
won fresh before so his 58 day absence shouldnt be a great problem. He is well handicapped and up to this class. Its just a
question of if he is "Ready" or fit enough. There shouldnt be much between REALISM and SMART JOHN but neither inspire me,
and neither have shown me enough to warrant siding with them in a race where low weights do clearly have an edge. MARKET
AVENUE is best over a mile and a quarter and fast ground and is well handicapped. There is nothing statistically wrong with being a
Mare, or with just having had 1 run this year and she is hard to fault. I would have a question mark about the stiff track though. All
her wins come on sharper tracks, or undulating tracks and although she has ran well on stiff tracks before she hasnt performed that
well from 3 starts here when 8/1 7/1 and 6/1 .She needed 3 races in 2002 before she won, and 2 races last year so at about 3/1,
from a weight range that has only a 1 from 29 record in the race , I think the value isnt there.

NIGHT MARKET won well last time but is inconsistent and he was a beaten 3/1 fav in this race last year. He isnt one to trust and I
just think, whilst he obvioulsy has a sound chance if at his best, and whislt coming from the best weight range , that I would chance
WE'LL MEET AGAIN to beat him this time. WE'LL MEET AGAIN does has stamina to prove but I think he will stay. You have
to respect this horse. He has been given 2 appaling rides on his last 2 starts (probably deliberately) , he now lower in the handicap
when winning this time last year and his trainer has an excellent 2 from 6 record in these Apprentice races here at this time of year.
He is also powerfully owned and I think there is every chance he could be gambled. He was 4th last time behind NIGHT
MARKET, Video analysis is hard as NIGHT MARKET won easily but WE'LL MEET AGAIN is significantly better off at the
weights and has a better jockey. Small risk bet at 12/1 on WE'LL MEET AGAIN would be my idea of the value in the race. I think
if he stays, he has the right credentials to win now he has a stronger rider.

Conclusion- I think WE'LL MEET AGAIN is decent value at 12/1 and worth a nibble.

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