Musselburgh has been "On" and "Off" all day and we have had Farcical inspections all day. The latest farce is a 12pm Noon inspection when the first race is scheduled at 12.20. We dont know if it is on or off. We dont know whether the meeting if on will be delayed and its impossible now to wait for the 12pm inspection . I am sending the mail now. If its on fair enough but if its called off there is nothing we can do about it. I think 3 betting oppurtunities stand out today.


Musselburgh 2.20 - Motive 11/4

Musleburgh 12.50 - Some Touch 4/5

Each Way Double - Its The Limit (12.50) and Spring Breeze (1.50)

* Next Message Monday

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Talking Points

* Saturdays Summary

Yesterdays message was Hijacked by Abandonments . The"negatives" at lingfield turned out pretty good and we got them all beaten. I will be doing more All weather negatives this week. The "best bet" on Saturday was spoilt by Windsor being off. I wanted the each way double and the second leg HOH VISS was second. That each way double would have probably resulted in 2 horses being placed had Windsor been on. The HOH VISS race was frustrating. I didnt think he was value as a win bet , and only
really wanted him in an each way double and although I wanted him to win it wasnt a bet that interested me. The frustrating thing was that the winner (Dont Push It) was the last of the negatives on the day to run and it spoilt the negatives by winning. We would have had 6/6 had the horse lost and it took the shine away from the message.

The Mistake I made there with hindsight was simple. I Opposed the horse through inexperince and as he came from a Bumper and others had proven more. What I didnt pay enough attention to was Jonjo O Neills record in those Haydock "Red Square" Novices. O'Neill had won several of those hurdle races before. Although his runners in the past in those races were far different types to Dont Push It , and "Fitted " the trends far better in being more experienced it did occur to me last night that Jonjo does like to win at Haydock in these races and he does send his better horses to these races. It was Naive to assume that DONT PUSH IT couldnt win the race and O Neill clearly knew he had a decent horse and was god enough to overcome any statistical fraillties. The average "bumper" winner, and average horse that had 2 runs that season would not have been up to winning that race normally, but Dont Push it was as the stable send the better class of horses there as its a race he is keen to win and I underestimated that fact yesterday.

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Musselburgh

Musselburgh (Assuming it passes the inspection ) is not a card that offers much help to those of us wanting reasonable priced winners. One thing that I am a little wary about today is that some of the stronger trends in the Road Map Book may not be that relevant today but will be on the Musselburgh card on the 29th December.

There are a handful of horses today coming from stables that excel at Mussselburgh at this time of year but the Book doesnt distinguish which Musselburgh card to bet the horses . The fact remains that the card on the 29th December is far more relevant. One example is Peter Monteith (Ideal Do Bois Beury) whose stable perform well at this time of year and at this track . Although on the face of it his runners are always worth watching at this track in December the races he excels in come either later in the month at the other Musselburgh meeting or in races that he isnt represented at today. I am just a little wary that todays meeting is not
the right day for many of the books trends to flourish and this meeting is often used as a prep track for horses that win at the track just after Christmass. Its a fact that 28 winners at Musselburgh at the Meeting after Christmass came from this meeting and several horses today will be laid out for the Christmas meeting having had their prep races at this meeting. I Feel there are 3 bets worth considering today.


Musselburgh 2.20 - Motive 11/4
Musleburgh 12.50 - Some Touch 4/5
Each Way Double - Its The Limit (12.50) and Spring Breeze (1.50)


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Best Bet of the Day

2.20 Musselburgh - MOTIVE 11/4

I thought the best "WIN bet" of the day was MOTIVE at 11/4 in the 2.20 race assuming he is Fit after a 123 day absence and fancied.

2/1 Motive, 9/4 Saif Sareea, 11/2 Millagros, 8/1 George Stubbs, 9/1 Rising Generation, 16/1 Gone Too Far, 20/1 Bodfari Signet, Overstrand, 33/1 Royal Glen,

The money horse is SAIF SAREEA who has been well backed. MOTIVE is slightly weaker in the market but that doesnt worry me (2/1-11/4). I can see the case for SAIF SAREEA. I can understand why he has been well backed. The Secret to SAIF SAREEA's form has been an upgrade in stables that he undertook last year. Alan Berry had this horse for the early part of his career. He showed nothing. He was then claimed to K Hogg. He then won a selling hurdle at Uttoxeter at 66/1. The problem the horse then had was that he was claimed after the Uttoxeter win by A Forbes and lost his form afterwards. Richard Fahey then got involved with the horse on the Flat. He picked him up in July 2005 when he Claimed the horse for £6000 after the horse Fell in a Selling Handicap Hurdle. Fahey won on the Flat with him at Beverley in a maiden handicap by 7 lengths. He landed a massive gamble that day off a low Handicap mark of 41 . He won again with the horse on the flat off 52 and in just a few runs he improved the horse about 20lbs on the Flat. That improvement made him very well treated for his last time out win at Musselburgh in a Handicap Hurdle. He won that Handicap Hurdle easily. You can understand why he did that after Fahey improved him on the Flat. This is a different kettle of fish though. He moves from a 0-115 to a 0-125 and he has to bridge that gap having been raised 12 lbs by the Handicapper. I Think this horse IS Capable of bridging the class gap between a 0-115 and a 0-125 under normal circumstances and could win a race like this but for me he meets a horse in MOTIVE That is far better class. Lets not forget that whilst SAIF SAREEA improved from 41 to 60 on the flat MOTIVE was a Micheal Stoute horse rated in the 90's that was running in the Class of race that Saif Sareea would never have got near. MOTIVE would have beaten Saif Sareea with 3 legs on the flat. MOTIVES Hurdles form looks better as well. He started 8/11 for a Class C juvenile hurdle at Musselburgh and would have won but for falling at the last . MOTIVE Then hacked up at Catterick thrashing a horse rated 115 (13lbs higher than SAIF SAREERA is rated).

MOTIVE Then flopped in Grade 1 class at 25/1. The fact he flopped isnt relevant, the fact he even ran in Grade 1 class in the John Smiths hurdle at the grand national meeting says it all for me. This horse is different class to SAIF SAREEA in my opinion and trained by a stronger stable. He ran after Aintree on the flat and the last time we saw him was when he was placed in a 0-105 Handicap on the Flat. I Just feel he is a far better horse and they have the wrong favourite today.

MOTIVE Comes here with a 4 months absence. That shouldnt be a major problem. When he slammed 12 rivals in a Catterick Novice Hurdle he has a 5 months absence. MOTIVE still has scope. We know the tracks no problem. He would have won his Novice here but for falling at the last. The ground is fine as well. I feel Too much emphasis has been put on SAIF SAREEA's Course and Distance win 3 weeks ago. The Racing Post have questioned the fact that the "Hard pulling" MOTIVE may not be suited by a lack of pace. The prediction of Pace issues is very much an Amateur Sport and if thats the reason MOTIVE is a bigger price than SAIF SAREEA then its laughable in my opinion. I see it that MOTIVE has proven himself to be completely different class on the flat and over hurdles and only has to give SAIF SAREEA 11lbs weight. There is a Class difference between these horses for me and at 11/4 I have to side with MOTIVE. Sometimes its sensible to follow the market. Sometimes its Foolish. I Am today ignoring the betting and siding with Class and MOTIVE.

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In the 12.50 at Musselburgh I couldnt see past SOME TOUCH from the Howared-Johnson stable at 10/11.

13/8 Some Touch, 100/30 It´s The Limit, 7/2 Rajayla, 12/1 Ballyhurry, 16/1 Dalawan, Powerlove, Top Brass, 25/1 In The Bunker, Lord Baskerville, 33/1 Fly Tipper, 50/1 Carpe Momentum, Moscott, 66/1 Chanteuse, Lucky Largo, Moscow Ali

The race only has 3 that look like they can win. I Cant see past the favourite SOME TOUCH .

SOME TOUCH was a smart bumper horse that was 2nd in the Aintree Bumper. His Novice Hurdle debut in November at Newbury was a Flop. I would forgive him that run. It was his first hurdles race. It was a Grade 1 track. It was a Class C hurdle. This race is a Class F hurdle on a Grade 4 track and Howard Johnson will want a "Confidence boosting" win for the horse.

Lets not forget that SOME TOUCH was 20/1 to win next years Sun Alliance at Cheltenham before his Newbury flop. I see him as the "Class" runner that now just have to prove it and I think he will today because of the Paupacity of the opposition. There are only 3 runners under 25/1 in the betting so he really only has two horses to beat.

ITS THE LIMIT 4/1 comes from a stable that have never had a winner in this period of the season yet and I dont see his form as exceptional by any means. The Irish runner RAJAYLA at 8/1 cant be totally ruled out and on paper looks a horse that should be placed but I am not going down that route as she is a 4 year old filly and there hasnt been a four year old filly win a maiden hurdle over any distance in any class in any month. It has never been done before. You are (with RAJAYLA) asking her to win a race that no horse of her age and sex has ever done before over any trip, any time in the season in any class. Give me a 5 year old Male horse over a four year old filly any day of the week.

This should mean that SOME TOUCH only has Its The Limit to worry about and he should beat that horse and win it for the stable for the second year in a row. The yard had 4 declared for this race in a bid to win it and I think SOME TOUCH will handle his few opponents . I smell this as a "Confidence booster" .

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My 3rd option is an Each Way Double


Musselburgh 12.50 - Its The Limit
Musselburgh 1.50 - Spring Breeze

First of all I expect neither horse to win. I think SOME TOUCH (12.50) will beat ITS THE LIMIT . I think MASAFI (1.50) will beat SPRING BREEZE.

The each way double though looks the bet. Both horses should be weak in the betting and both should place. If you get both horses placed today you should double your money in an each way double and it doesnt matter if they are beaten miles as long as they make the 1-2-3 .

ITS THE LIMIT should be about 5/1 and should comfortably beat all his rivals aside from the favourite and Rayayla. He has experience, fitness, age , Ground and a top jockey in the saddle. Its not impossible that both could win if the market leaders in their races dissapoint but thats a 25/1 double that would just be a Bonus. The meat on the bet should come from both horses placing. I dont think for a minute that SPRING BREEZE can give wieght to Masafi today but he really does look a place banker and it would take a really poor performance or a Fall for SPRING BREEZE To be unplaced.

My advice today would be to have both these horses in a small each way double and whatever you stake ought to be doubled if they both place as is expected.

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