Account Bet

No Bet

Decided to go no Bet because of the weather. My Strongest option for an Account bet was Sky Quest in the 4.25 at Sandown at 7/1. This is what You should do today in my opinion.

Bet Bridal Path 2.30 Wolverhampton

Bet Smooch at 20/1 in the Dragon Stakes (2.40)

Bet Sky Quest if the ground doesnt seen soft in the 4.25


I am making BRIDAL PATH my Best bet of the day.


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Talking Points


Interesting day. I like my message but the weather really is putting pressure on finding account bets. Rain at BEVERLEY (13mm) and Sandown (3mm) suggest care should be taken. I am estimating Beverley to be just on the soft side, and Sandown to be "Good" before Motivator turns up tomorrow.



Todays Racing


Wolverhampton 2.30 - 13/8 Local Spirit, 7/2 Bridal Path, 5/1 Campbeltown, 7/1 Island Odyssey, 12/1 Reality Time, 14/1 Enchanting Times, 16/1 Kildonan Castle, 20/1 Orpsie Boy, 25/1 Secret Assassin, 33/1 Gymbolini, 50/1 Gavarnie Beau,

I Strongly fancy BRIDAL PATH to win.I think there is very little chance that LOCAL SPIRIT can beat BRIDAL PATH without a recent race. I would be betting the other way around. Mark Prescott's BRIDAL PATH was not put in the race last time. She is on a par with Confidential Lady who hacked up at Catterick recently. I think she will take this opening race. Much to like about her debut. She was weak in the betting. I dont think she was "Off".

She had the worst draw. Had to switch to the near side. Found trouble in running, forced to switch a few times and not once was she knocked about or given abuse. On breeding she was entitled to hate the ground on her debut. This step up in trip looks ideal.There is a right price and a wrong price and I think 11/10 is about her true price. The saver has to be CAMPBELTOWN if you want one. I doubt he is as talented as BRIDAL PATH but he brings fitness and experience to the table and a good draw. I expect him to finish 2nd but he could nick it if BRIDAL PATH has any flaws.

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Sandown 2.05 - 9/2 Out After Dark, 6/1 Ok Pal, 8/1 Mine Behind, 9/1 Texas Gold, 10/1 Fromsong, Rydal, Who´s Winning, 12/1 Further Outlook, Intriguing Glimpse, Malapropism, Regina, Whistler, 16/1 Green Manalishi, 20/1 Desperate Dan, 25/1 Ingleton, 33/1 The Jobber,

I Would question the following horses.

Mine Behind 8/1 and Green Manalishi 16/1 - On suspect Fitness Desperate Dan 20/1 , Regina 12/1 , The Jobber 33/1 and Ingleton 25/1 - On grounds of being too Experienced
Thats about as Far as we can go. The interesting trial is the Class B Gosforth Handicap ran at Newcastle run at Newcastle 6 days ago. That race has provided 3 of the past winners of this race. Attempting to improve that record today is Out After Dark , Whistler and Malapropism , but the last horse to win this fron Newcastle was 4 years ago and the shine is off that stat for me. Fitness is vital. 6 of the last 7 winners and 8 of the last 10 winners ran within 14 days. Bearing All these things in Mind my shortlist is as follows. Not much help I know.



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Sandown 2:40 - 9/4 Zavone, 5/2 Phantom Whisper, 6/1 Past Tender, 8/1 Cape Of Luck, 10/1 Overstayed, 12/1 Montzando, 16/1 Colourpoint, 20/1 Charming Ballet, Smooch,

I love this race, The DRAGON STAKES as Fillies completely dominate but this year it may not be that simple. This year SMOOCH 25/1 and COLOURPOINT 16/1 the 2 outsiders are the only fillies . Their prices wouldnt worry me. What worries me this year is that the Male horses escape
penalties, and are not too overraced. This race is fabulous for avoiding the "exposed" Male horses that have accumulated penalties. This year the problem is that none have penalties, and few are exposed so the Stats worry me. What happens is that Earlier in the year Male horses beat female horses. After a few weeks these horses get penalties and sometimes double penalties, they are pushed into listed class races and group races. By the time the Dragon Stakes comes around most Fillies have escaped the penaly system and end up getting plenty of weight from penalised colts who are a) penalised b) more exposed c) have had harder races. We know this is true from the record of this race. Fillies wipe the Floor with Colts. The only winning Colts were beaten on their last start and didnt carry penalties. However this year the race is full of unexposed, unpenalised Male horses so I feel the stat with the best weapon has been blunted.

That said I wouldnt criticise anyone that backed SMOOCH 25/1 and COLOURPOINT 50/1 solely on the grounds that they are fillies. I may even do that myself ! I think what the past renewals tell us , suggests that horses that step up from Maiden company dont fair very well. Only 1 from 17 suceeded and that was 10 years ago. The majority of winners came from Listed or Group Class, or conditions events. I dont think you want a "maiden" type.
Therefore I would offer up the Following horses as suspect. They are all Male and all come from Maiden class. ZAVONE 9/4 - PAST TENDER 6/1 and MONTZANDO 12/1. I Think this years race is between this shortlist

5/2 Phantom Whisper
8/1 Cape Of Luck
10/1 Overstayed
16/1 Colourpoint
20/1 Smooch


Its easy to see ZAVONE bucking that trend. After all winning a maiden by 9 lengths from a horse that came out and won may be better than your average Maiden winner, and I can see why many will fancy him, but he is plenty short enough at 6/4 and I am Taking SMOOCH at 20/1 as the selection as Fillies are usually best in this race


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Sandown 4.25 - 4/1 Look Again, 5/1 Spring Jim, 6/1 I´m So Lucky, 7/1 Silvaline, 8/1 Secretary General, 9/1 Bayeux, Sky Quest, 10/1 Flight Of Esteem, 12/1 Day To Remember, 14/1 Bourgainville, 20/1 Prince Nureyev,

I Think SKY QUEST is the bet here, and I also like Secretary General and Spring Jim . I am not sure about Walter Swinburns horses. There has been money for Sky Quest, and for his second string FLIGHT OF ESTEEM at 20/1 and with a big priced Swinburn horse backed in the 5pm tonight I wonder if anything ambitious is being planned, and I ma unclear just which of Walters horses he fancies and which are the duds !!

In last years race SILVALINE 7/1 easily beat PRINCE NUREYEV 20/1 into second but it was an unsatisfactory race.The favourite LOOK AGAIN has had 4 career starts. Statistically thats not enough and it may be another example of a horse priced up on Stable reputation. There have been 47 horses in this race that had less than 7 career starts. All Lost. This included 7 Beaten favourites, 6 Second favourites that were beaten and 18 horses that started less than 10/1. I Would have to Oppose LOOK AGAIN solely on grounds of experience. I Dont fancy FLIGHT OF ESTEEM or DAY TO REMEMBER on Fitness. If you want to apply the stats vigorously then SECRETARY GENERAL 8/1 comes out beautifully as he was 2nd last time out and there is a lack of horses this year that came into this race with a 1st or 2nd last time. That suggests you really want an improving type. After all 6 of the last 7 winners won their last race before this, yet this year we have no "last time out winners". Thats what I think you need. A Horses thats improving fast . 3 year olds are fine. The only 3 year old comes from Royal Ascot/York and thats I´M SO LUCKY 6/1. I Dont know what to make of I´M SO LUCKY really. Horses that come from Ascots Royal Meeting are poor. He effectively does that although none of the Ascot horses came from the race he comes from so I dont really know what to make of that statistic. Overall I wouldnt want to be on a Royal Ascot-York runner, as This does not appear to be the best preperation. One did win in 1992 and the other in 2002 , and that was a lightly raced well
handicapped horse who went on to win off better handicap marks and who had an easy race at Ascot. It may pay to overlook Ascot runners.

I am determined to oppose the favourite. If we take Horses that had all achieved the following -

1) Were less than 16/1
2) Had at least 7 Career starts
3) Had ran at least twice this season
4) Were 1-2-3-4 last time out (I have extended this to 1-2-3-4 as the race lacks last time out winners)
5) Ran within 47 days

We then Find 11 of the 14 winners from just 25% of the runners and found a £59 profit.. Applying those stats leads us to 2 likely winners but I also want to add SPRING JIM and SKY QUEST as although not in the first 5 last time, SPRING JIM was 6th in a Bunch Finish and was only a head off a 1-2-3-4-5 finish and SKY QUEST was finishing fast over an inadequate trip after being hampered.

Therefore the winner should come from

SPRING JIM 9/2,
SECRETARY GENERAL 14/1
I,M SO LUCKY 6/1
SKY QUEST 7/1


I Just feel I,M SO LUCKY will find this hard to bounce back from York. I Think I have to oppose him in light of everything including the fact that horses dropping from 12 furlongs + are poor (1-40) SECRETARY GENERAL is value at 14/1 but doesnt have the improving progressive profile you would want, but he does have backclass. He is weak in the market though and I dont trust the horse or stable. SPRING JIM has every chance of winning ways and I couldnt fault him other than to say this race has never been won by a horse that hasnt raced within a month and his 37 day break is a small issue.

I Like SKY QUEST best. I would not want heavy rain, if the ground was on the fast side then confidence would increase dramitically. I loved him on video last time and His track record is superb (W-2-2) and he doesnt have much wrong with him at all. Wouldnt be the best handicapped in the race but I fancy him a bit today as he loves Sandown and that counts for a great deal here. From my shortlisted horses SPRING JIM is the danger.


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Beverley 8.15 - 4/5 Tabaret, 5/1 Deserving, 6/1 Sea Grain, 8/1 High Curragh, 14/1 Papaspyros, 16/1 Game Of Love, 25/1 Ingleby Arch, 33/1 Silver Bank, Silver Sail, 66/1 Wise Kid, 100/1 Lady Fas,


The stats say that Tabaret should beat debutant HIGH CURRAGH but I think the unraced horse will win. The Stats are a little complex. If you base the stats on recent Class 5 renewals (as I have done) the stats tell you debutants are poor, but base them on Class 4 renewals and the record improves dramatically. I am staying with the 7 most recent races that are identical to this race.

If you want to bet TABARET the favourite the stats encourage you. He faces unraced horses like DESERVING , HIGH CURRAGH and INGLEBY ARCH . The record of unraced horses is pretty poor. Only 1 from 53 suceeded . Although only 13 started less than 10/1 in the betting its still a poor record and shows that on a track like this experience counts. The stats imply you want a fancied runner with experience which means SEA GRAIN or TABARET Who comes from Royal Ascot/York. No horse has tried that route yet but 3rd in the Windsor Castle should take some beating in this race. With a high draw, all but 3 of his rivals about 33/1 , and the record of debutants poor TABARET doesnt seem a bad price. The main worry would be just how soft the rain has made the ground, and just how strongly supported HIGH CURRAGH is in the market. I Think the market is telling you that HIGH CURRAGH is expected to win on his debut. The way i read the market in this race, it would certainly stop me betting the favourite at odds on.


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Haydock 8.30 - 4/1 Hill Of Howth, 5/1 Expensive, 6/1 Hounded, 8/1 Frank Crow, 10/1 Hill Of Almhuim, 14/1 Chris Corsa, Loua, Lucksin, Maxolini, 16/1 Clear Veneer, Gattuso, 20/1 Dylan, Rubenstar, 25/1 Glenbuck, Gypsy´s Kiss, 33/1 Bright Sparky, Margarets Choice,

Maiden Auction Stakes. The cheaper the horse at the Sales, the less weight it gets so we should get a good idea from history whether the more expensive classier types beat the cheaper types, or whether the weight the cheaper horses get is enough. The stats show us that the more expensive quality types are far better. If you look at horses that carried 8st 7lbs or less they have a dreadful 1-53 record. This included 4 beaten Favs, 6 beaten second favs and 13
horses that started 11/2 or shorter. Compare that with horses that had 8st 8lbs or more. They have a terrific 6-29 record. They won 6 of the 7 renewals and the only renewal they didnt win was in a year where only 1 horse (an 8/1 chance that came second) carried 8st 8lbs or more so it was a false renewal. What we also know is that 2 runs is ideal, and better than 1 run. From the last 4 winners there were 3 that had just 2 races. At this stage, the need for a High weight, leads me to this shortlist

Maxolini - Chris Corsa - Hill Of Howth - Hounded - Luckskin

There are "Unraced" horses that carry highweights in this race today. One thing we do know is that unraced horses are just 1-34 (The useful Bodfari Street 1998) and that does put me off an unraced horse a little. Fillies have also struggled (1-21). With this in mind and and the ideal of having 2 runs rather than 1 , and the Market leads me to think that HILL OF NORTH 4/1 should win.

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Haydock 9.00 - 4/1 Bracklinn, 5/1 Sand Fairy, 6/1 Allied Cause, 7/1 Society Music, 8/1 Love Affair, 10/1 Ignition, 12/1 Burton Ash, Innocent Splendour, Ladeena, 14/1 Fashion House, 20/1 Miss L´Augeval, Orpendonna, 25/1 Consider This, 33/1 Bountiful, Ruby Sunrise

Just 7 renewals and too hard to waste time on but skating through the stats say you should have 7 + career starts and carry 8st 7lbs or more, and not come from a maiden.. The favourite BRACKLINN has just 1 start . No horse has ran in this race with just 1 start, and those that had less than 7 starts are just 1 from 30 . BRACKLINN carries less then 8st 7lbs (0-22) and comes from a Maiden. All 9 horses that came from a maiden lost. I would have to therfore look away from the favourite as he isnt the normal type.

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Haydock 9.30 - 3/1 Tarabut, 7/1 Yazaar, 8/1 Arch Folly, 10/1 Mary Gray, Saltburn Lad, Water Pistol, 12/1 Benedict Bay, Gardasee, Nowaday, Taxman, 14/1 Pee Jay´s Dream, 16/1 Sharp N Frosty, 20/1 Esquillon, Harlestone Linn, 33/1 Xaarist,

Looking at the past 12 renewals its clear you need a few things. You want a fancied horse. The market rarely gets these improving stayers radically wrong which is why 10 of the 12 renewals went to the front 2 in the market and horses at 6/1 and over were just 1-71. Notwithstanding last years 33/1 shock , the market can usually be trusted. The Frame of this race suggests we should deal with runners only at 12/1 and under . You want a horse thats in
form. All 32 horses that failed to finish in the 1-2-3-4-5 last time out lost in this race so you want to come here off a strong last run. Just applying those two stats (12/1 and under and 1-2-3-4-5 last time out) you have 11 of the past 12 renewals from under 50% of the runners. I Think you should rule out horses that came from Maidens. All 19 horses that did that lost, and 7 of those 19 horses fitted our perfect criteria of less than 12/1 and in the first 5 last time out. Every horse had between 4 and 12 career starts and less than 6 starts this year. Applying these stats you keep coming back to TARABUT The favourite. There are no last time out winners in this race, and usually thats a key statistical demand. Take out last years shock 33/1 winner the previous 5 winners all came here on the back of a win. Without any horse achieving a win last time out the next best has to be a close 2nd and TARABUT has just gone down in a Goodwood photo with a 5 length gap to the 3rd. TARABUT comes from the same Maiden Handicap that Irie Rasta came from in 2002 before winning this. TARABUT should be able to concede weight to these. Horses that had 8st 8lbs or less were 0-38 in this race suggesting a high
weighted classier type was one to latch on to and TARABUT fits the bill nicely. When runner up at Goodwood he had several of these a long way behind him (Saltburn Lad , Arch Folly, Taxman, Water Pistol) and if he can beat them again he should win this.

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Todays Stats


Sandown 2.05 - 13 renewals and 148 runners
Sandown 2.05 - Less than 13 career starts is 1-29
Sandown 2.05 - The Best trial (produced 3 winners from 16 runners) is the Class B Gosforth Handicap ran at Newcastle
Sandown 2.05 - Less than 3 career wins are 1-47
Sandown 2.05 - 2-7 runs this year is best (Others 1-29)
Sandown 2.05 - Horses with less than 3 races this season have not won this race since 1994

Sandown 2:40 - 13 renewals and 81 runners
Sandown 2:40 - Horses from Royal Ascot (York) are 7-41
Sandown 2:40 - Horses that ran within 7 days are 3-5
Sandown 2:40 - Fillies (10-39) are 3 times more likely to win as colts
Sandown 2:40 - Horses from a Maiden are just 1-17

Sandown 4.25 - 14 renewals and 241 runners
Sandown 4.25 - Less than 7 Career starts are 0-47
Sandown 4.25 - Seasonal debutants (0-11) and 1 run this year (0-25) are best avoided.
Sandown 4.25 - Horses coming from Ascot are just 2-78
Sandown 4.25 - Horses that had not run within 48 days are 1-28
Sandown 4.25 - Horses at 16/1 and over are 1-119
Sandown 4.25 - Horses that were 1st or 2nd last time dominate (Others just 2-158)

Beverley 7.15 - 11 renewals and 165 runners
Beverley 7.15 - Less than 9 career starts is 0-25
Beverley 7.15 - 3 year olds are 0-34. Horses aged 7 or more are 1-29
Beverley 7.15 - Horses that ran in Class B or higher before are just 1-29
Beverley 7.15 - Horses dropping from 9f or more are 0-15
Beverley 7.15 - Horses that ran 8-31 days ago are best . Those racing within 7 days (1-27) , and 32 + days ago (1-28) struggle
Beverley 7.15 - 9 of the 11 winners were beaten at least 6 lengths last time out

Beverley 8.15 - 18 renewals and 202 runners
Beverley 8.15 - Unraced horses are just 1-53
Beverley 8.15 - Claiming jockeys are 0-37
Beverley 8.15 - Horses at 8/1 and over are 1-139