Account Bet

No Bet

Best Bet of the Day

I think Tiger Tiger (3.00) at 20/1 is an excellent little each way bet. I think
its a day for bigger priced horses and I quite like a few at Chester at fancy
prices.


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* Talking Points

Going to be a busy week. Todays style of message wont be appropriate tomorrow. Day 2 at Chester is always rough and a message like
todays would be self indulgent and wasting time looking at races that cant provide a firm selection as the card is traditionally the hardest of
the 3 days. I will play it by ear tomorrow. There are going to be a few negatives tomorrow looking at the stats and I may have to concentrate
on just the strongest angles and not look at every race. I Didnt see Robinzal's race on Saturday. Pointless saying I should have gone each
way because Hindsight backs every winner but the negatives inthe race lost and opened up what I felt was a decent value race and he ran
fine in 3rd and was beaten by the horse that beat him last time as well. I just prefered the profile of the Easterby horse rather than the
Burke winner. The members who lay the bets back at shorter prices will have been fine but I am not too disapointed. At the prices involved I
cant expect a high strike rate and I dont think the loss will be significant in the long scheme of things.

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Today's Racing


Chester 1.30 - Joseph Heler Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (2yo)5f

6/4 Strike Up The Band, 9/2 Danjet, 6/1 Don´t Tell Sue, Overstayed, 10/1 Bel Cantor, Dusty City, 12/1 Ooh Aah Camara, 20/1 Dream
Factor, Lake Hero, 33/1 Miss Lovat,

It doesnt make any sense to bet High Draws. LAKE HERO (Stall 9) and DON´T TELL SUE 6/1 (Stall 10) havent been lucky. The fact
remains that 11 of the last 12 winners were drawn 5 or under, Stalls 1-2-3 have won 9 of the last 12 renewals and Horses drawn 9 or more
have never been in the first 4 places . Thats pretty compelling. DANJET 9/2 comes from a trainer who has a poor record in this race, and
DANJET has already ran more races that every past winner and has an exposed look now with 4 runs this year already. OOH AAH
CAMARA 12/1 is the other "exposed" runner with 4 career starts. I think 4 races may be too many. 9 of the last 10 winners ran no more
than twice before. BEL CANTOR 10/1 has a chance but he was beaten last time (only 1 winner of this didnt win last time since 1996) and his
66/1 price doesnt suggest he was anything out of the ordinary. OVERSTRAYED and STRIKE UP THE BAND are hard to knock .
OVERSTRAYED 9/1 comes from the track that produced the 2000 and 2001 winners and if stall 8 isnt an issue (Simiana won from this stall
in 2001) he can go close. It was very hard not to be impressed with STRIKE UP THE BAND 6/4 last time and he must have a marvellous
chance from Trap 2 but he is very short . I Have to side with OVERSTRAYED at 10/1 as better value.

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Chester 2.00 - Weatherbys Bank Cheshire Oaks (for the Robert Sangster Memorial Cup) (Listed Race) (Fillies) (3yo) 1m3½f

Betting Forecast: 6/4 Faint Heart, 9/4 Alumni, 100/30 Higher Love, 14/1 Rainbow Sky, 16/1 Sailing Days, 20/1 Tincture,

When you have a very small field , you can never say with Confidence that anything cant win but its pretty clear to me that FAINT HEART
is completely the wrong type for this race. Owned by Ben Sangster , its understandable why she was raced here as the race is in memory of
his father Robert, but thats not to say she is the right type for the race. Firstly she has had 7 career starts. No previous winner has had that
many races. Not that many have tried before, (0-14) , and its not to say that it cant be done , but she certainly is more exposed than every
past winner. Shes also ran twice this year and All 10 fillies that had done that failed to win this. Tanzina the 2000 favourite was beaten with 2
races this year. There could easily be an exposure issue here . She could easily be vulnerable to " improvers". Surprisingly there are no
seasonal debutants this year (they do have the best record) but 2 races this season hasnt been done before and I think the arguments why
that may not be ideal are potentially sound if unproven beyond a reasonable doubt. FAINT HEART fails other stats. She comes from a 10f
race , and the record of horses that ran at 10f and more last time out are also weak (1-27) . There was a Henry Cecil winner that managed it
in the Glory days of the Mid 1990's, but 15 horses that started under 8/1 failed to do it . I appreciate that most horses in this race fail that
stat rendering it irrelevant but I think it undermines my argument that FAINT HEART may not find the improvement she needs to stay
ahead of her field. Win lose or draw, and in a small field FAINT HEART could do any of those, it must be said that she is radically different
from every past winner and I think her chance is Flawed statistically.

ALUMNI 9/4 has ran just the once. She is better statistically than the favourite but she doesnt set the pulse racing. I think I prefer the
Micheal Bell horse. HIGHER LOVE also ran at 10f last time but to me she is the best runner statistically in this race. She has the perfect
exposure (3 races) , lost her last race as a juvenile and comes here as a Maiden winner. HIGHER LOVE was well regarded last year and
thought of as a well bred late develloping Oaks outsider She is an expensive 340,000 euros Saddlers Wells filly and this wont take much
winning and much as her last run wasnt strong, she comes out very well compared to past winners.

I Cant find much wrong statistically with RAINBOW SKY at 14/1 . The implication is that she is the "second string" to ALUMNI , but
Barry Hills is more than capable of winning with a second choice horse and interestingly she is a Rainbow Quest filly , and that sire has a
beautiful record with runners at Chester. I also really liked her on video last time as she was staying on again with something in hand and
she clearly wasnt fancied.

Overall I think we have a vulnerable favourite in FAINT HEART . The small field never helps in trying to get bad favourites beaten and
Faint Heary could win because of that but her profile screams to me we should take her on. I feel HIGHER LOVE has the best chance and
is the likely winner but do not rule out RAINBOW HIGH at 14/1 and she is worth a saver.


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Chester 2.30 - totesport Chester Cup (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m2½f

5/1 Coconut Beach, 11/2 Swift Sailor, 13/2 Dr Sharp, 10/1 Larkwing, 12/1 Balyan, Big Moment, Land ´n Stars, Unleash, 14/1 Anak Pekan,
Cold Turkey, Contact Dancer, 20/1 High Point, 25/1 Distant Prospect, 33/1 King Revo, Mana D´Argent, Romany Prince, 40/1 Copeland,
50/1 Tees Components

This year we have to Powerful stables with strongly fancied runners that had only had 3 previous races. Aidan O Brien trains COCONUT
BEACH and Mark Johnston trains SWIFT SAILOR . No horse with less than 7 career starts have won this race so in terms of inexperience
both these has mammoth tasks today despite their superb connections who are just the type to bust stats like this wide open. That said the
fact remains that the job they have to do with just 3 starts behind them must be a very tall order. COCONUT BEACH were he trained by
anyone else would be a huge price . Yes he has Fallon, a good draw and will like the ground but surely he cant be any value. Would he even
be running if O'Brien wasnt sending over Gypsy King for the Dee Stakes ? This horse was 14/1 last week but the moment O'Brien won the
Guineas he was slashed to 7/1 solely on that fact. He may win but he cant be value for me and he has achieved far less than every past
winner of this race. SWIFT SAILOR is the same and coming from a Musselburgh handicap where the 2nd 3rd and 4th were all beaten next
time out doesnt smack of Chester Cup winning form. I dont like him at his price and he is a Slip Anchor and I have always felt they were no
good in big field races. Obviously massive respect given to both connections but their prices make no appeal bearing in mind their chance.
BALYAN also gets rejected with 3 career starts. ANAK PEKAN Won last years race. I dont fancy him this year. Last year he had a prep
race, a good draw and was 13lbs lower in the weights. He lacks a race this year and all 3 of these combined factors should get him beat.
Horses with his weight have poor records in this race anyway. CONTRACT DANCER is a seasonal debutant and could be betterdrawn in
stall 11 . He was due to run in this race last year for John Dunlop but he pulled out on fast ground. Seriously upgraded in Stable he may be
worth a chance to shine but its worrying how weak he has been in the betting all week . LARKWING 12/1 is interesting but He has failed to
do what every past winner had done before in winning over 2 miles and I would rather have a horse that had "been there and done it".
COLD TURKEY 14/1 comes from one of the best trial races but with the track an unknown consideration, the trip unproven and a Career
high mark he isnt for me. BIG MOMENT 12/1 was 2nd in 2002 and 3rd in 2003 (would have been second) . Last year BIG MOMENT was
trained for Cheltenham and this race was an afterthought. I didnt fancy him last year because of that factor and his high draw but this year
he has bypassed the Cheltenham Festival and has a better draw (stall 9) . He has a stiff task but he loves this place and wont disgrace
himself and I cant find anything wrong with his chance statistically. He is one of the best 4 horses statistically in this race. The other 3 are
DR SHARP 13/2 , LAND ´N STARS 16/1 and UNLEASH at 12/1 . Overall I would side with DR SHARP but this isnt a race for me as the
race involves so much luck in running and it isnt too predictable .


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Chester 3.00 - 7/2 King´s Thought, 9/2 Day To Remember, 7/1 Artistic Style, Blue Monday, 8/1 Soulacroix, True Companion, 10/1 Alfonso,
Ionian Spring, Zonergem, 20/1 Divine Gift, Tiger Tiger, 25/1 Nashaab, 100/1 Illustrious Duke,


I Think its a race where I would throw a little each way on TIGER TIGER at 16/1 and possibly TRUE COMPANION at 12/1 . I backed
TIGER TIGER at a big price in the City and Suburban last time and he ran well. He will love the track and ground, and I have had my eye
on him for a while now and reversing form with KINGS THOUGHT who won the Epsom race isnt out of the question especially as his trainer
says he will come on a lot for the race . KINGS THOUGHT will be hard to beat but he is no price and he had the run of the race at Epsom.
My Gut feeling is that KINGS THOUGHT needs to be taken on. He comes from the City and Suburban at Epsom and all 14 horses that
came from that race lost in this. That does affect TIGER TIGER as well but he is 5 times a bigger price and had an easier race at Epsom.
BLUE MONDAY looks an exciting prospect but he hasnt run for 2 years (had an injury last year) and he is far too inexperienced for me in
this race. He looks an autumn prospect. Unless a major gamble happens I couldnt consider him. I Dont want an older horse. Whilst only 7
horses have ran older than 7, the results of the last 2 renewals (2002 and 2003) showed how 4 year olds were dominant (They filled 4 of the
first 5 places in both years) . This steers me away from the Likes of Nashaab and Ionian Spring. What you have here are a set of confusing
statistics. Every runner fails at least 1 main statistic except TRUE COMPANION who has the perfect profile for the race. The Statistics
show that you dont want to be involved with horses that have already ran in Listed or Group Class before (King´s Thought 7/2 , Divine Gift
20/1). You dont want inexperienced horses (Blue Monday 7/1 , Day To Remember 9/2) amd you could argue that Alfonso, Divine Gift and
Soulacroix would also be too lightly raced. There are several other angles that produce bad stats and it is confusing and although 1 powerful
statistic is bound to be wrong, knowing which it is could be impossible. DAY TO REMEMBER has a chance but he is not the average type
that wins this , he isnt experienced enough statistically. I dont think ALFONSO will stay . He is closely related to San Antonio and Pablo
neither who have proven their stamina at this trip and he may have to be held up and at the back with all the traffic problems that brings. I
am not convinced by Divine Gift or Soulacroix and I reallly think TIGER TIGER at 6/1 and TRUE COMPANION at 12/1 are value.

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Chester 3.35 - Walker Smith Way Handicap (Class 3) (3yo,0-90) 1m4½f

5/2 Quizzene, 5/1 Mont Saint Michel, 11/2 Alpine Gold, 6/1 Halla San, 13/2 Toldo, 7/1 Come On Jonny, 9/1 Ceiriog Valley, 16/1 Duroob,
Sunset Strip,

I like ALPINE GOLD's chance after watching her on tape, and from her AOR's . I am going to ignore the fact she is a Filly (they are 0-16 in
this race) and side with the fact she takes in weaker opposition. She is made for Middle distances and won over a mile as a 2 year old and I
think the improvement she will show at this trip will be the key. Visually she was very impressive last time out staying on over 10f in a hot
Newmarket race. She was only beaten 5 lengths at Newmarket in a race with AOR's of 83.64. The trip will improve her as well. Todays race
has AOR's of only 77.12 , its a smaller field, and taking the class of opposition at Newmarket its clear that 7 of her last opponents would be
topweight in this race, and most of the field are rated higher than almost every runner in todays race. Prior to that ALPINE GOLD ran
creditably in Listed class and I think she will outclass this field. QUIZZENE is a serious danger. I like his chance but his price has to be a bit
short and It is hard to argue a case that he is Value at 9/4. His Sandown win was "In spite" of the step back in trip . Before the race Kevin
Darley said the only doubt he had about defeat was the step back to 10f but in typical Johnston fashion he held on gamely from the front and
won, and I think this step up in trip is ideal. I cant see the horses behind him at Sandown (Come On Jonny , Duroob) reversing that form and
QUIZZENE for me is the Most likely winner but too short to bet. His draw may not be helpful if he cant lead and has to be dropped in and he
could easily have traffic problems. I am happy to take on the other Filly CEIRIOG VALLEY . The most likely winners here are Lightly
raced improvers often from big stables , Laid out for the race that have not shown their best form yet. Several Maidens have won , several
horses without any handicap experience have won , and MONT SAINT MICHEL is statistically perfect and well entered up. Judging him on
notoriously unreliable "10f Lingfield" form is impossible but were he to win you can say his profile is flawless. Much will depend on how the
race pans out . What MONT SAINT MICHEL has achieved is light years from ALPINE GOLD and I think she is the value, and the
selection with the danger Quizzene who is easyto fancy but just too short in the betting for me.

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Chester 4:10 Cheshire Regiment EBF Maiden Stakes (2yo) 5f (5f16y)

6/4 River Kintyre, 9/2 Silver Crest, 8/1 Figjam, Titus Maximus, 10/1 Dancing Flame, Looking North, 14/1 Active Audience, Mytton´s
Pride, 20/1 Zennerman, 25/1 Becktara, Taras Tornado, 33/1 La Bomba Veloce, Scooby Dude, Stanley Bay, 66/1 Blackpool, Tequila Rose

I dont really want a seasonal debutant . Not because they are 0-16 in this race (After all a 33/1 debutant nearly won this in 2002) but mainly
because of the Rain, the big field and the number of experienced runners that are clearly fancied. This turns me away from TITUS
MAXIMUM 8/1 . and FIGJAM at 8/1 (although interestingly he was cut from 14/1 to 8/1 in the Racing Post tissue yesterday afternoon) . I
Dont want a horse by Groom Dancer on soft ground so DANCING FLAME 10/1 is passed up (although a Groom Dancer won yesterday on
soft ground) and I dont want a horse thats come from a Claimer and sold for £8000 so LOOKING NORTH 10/1 is out as well. I dont feel
those types are the sort that can win Chester maidens, or they wouldnt have been in a claimer in the first place. This suggests its a match
between the front 2 horses RIVER KINTYRE and SILVER CREST and the draw does suggest RIVER KINTYRE will have the easier
task.

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Today's Stats

Chester 1.30 - 15 renewals and 107 runners (Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes)
Chester 1.30 - 1 previous race is best (9-36) . Debutants are 1-16. 4 or more races are 0-7
Chester 1.30 - Horses that ran within 7 days are 0-9 and 8-15 days ago are best (6-20)
Chester 1.30 - No Sex advantage but horses at 10/1 and over are 1-49
Chester 1.30 - Last time out winners (11-56) and last time out 3rds (3-9) are dominant
Chester 1.30 - Horses from Class E (5-17) have the best strike rate
Chester 1.30 - Richard Hannon is 5 from 9 but hasnt won this since 1999
Chester 1.30 - 11 of the last 12 winners were drawn 5 or under
Chester 1.30 - The winner has come from Stalls 1, 2 or 3 in 9 races out of the last 12.
Chester 1.30 - Horses drawn 9 or more have never been in the first 4 places
Chester 1.30 - P Evans has a poor record (6 5 4 2 5 4 3 7)

Chester 2.00 - 14 renewals and 98 runners (Cheshire Oaks)
Chester 2.00 - 1-3 career starts are best. Horses with 6 or more starts are just 0-14
Chester 2.00 - Horses with 2 or more races this year are 0-10 as seasonal debutants (9-49) are best
Chester 2.00 - Horses from Doncaster (3-5) Ascot (2-6) score well
Chester 2.00 - Horses that ran within 15 days are 1-17
Chester 2.00 - Only 1 of the 27 winners ran at 10f or longer last time out. Those coming from a Mile (7-26) are best
Chester 2.00 - Look for Maiden Winners that lost their last starts as a 2-year old. The last 12 winners All lost their final 2yo race
Chester 2.00 - Avoid Listed and Group Winners. Only 1 previous winner won in them before

Chester 2.30 - 15 renewals and 251 runners (Chester Cup)
Chester 2.30 - Horses aged 8 and more are 0-28 and only 1 placed
Chester 2.30 - Seasonal debutants are weak (3-80) as are 4 + runs this year (0-15)
Chester 2.30 - Less than 7 career starts are 0-18
Chester 2.30 - Fillies are 1-25
Chester 2.30 - Claiming jockeys are 0-34
Chester 2.30 - Horses that ran within 15 days are just 1-72 as 16-31 days ago are best (11-81)
Chester 2.30 - Horses at 16/1 and over are 1-120
Chester 2.30 - Horses from Kempton (5-22) and Newbury (4-28) and Newmarket (3-43) do well .
Chester 2.30 - Horses from Ripon (1-33) and Nottingham (0-10) and Haydock (0-10) do not do well.
Chester 2.30 - Horses coming from a race with less than 8 runners in it is 0-38
Chester 2.30 - Horses that dont come from a handicap last time are just 1-41
Chester 2.30 - Horses carrying 9st 3lbs or more are just 1-40
Chester 2.30 - A High draw can win but a clear advantage exists to low draws
Chester 2.30 - The last 12 winners had all either won at 2m on the flat or jumps or placed at 20f on the flat
Chester 2.30 - The winner is usually an improving stayer who lands a Career Best performance when winning
Chester 2.30 - M Pipe has a poor record 4 13 9 10 12 16 10 2 9 15 4 5 15 16

Chester 3.00 - 15 renewals and 206 runners (Breitling Watches & Waltons of Chester Handicap)
Chester 3.00 - Less than 9 career starts (1-37) , less than 13 career starts (2-65) is weak
Chester 3.00 - Horses from Newmarket are 0-21, Epsom (0-19) and the All Weather are 0-25
Chester 3.00 - No horses older than 7 has won (0-7)
Chester 3.00 - Fillies are 1-26
Chester 3.00 - Horses that had ran in Listed Class or higher before are 0-51
Chester 3.00 - Horses coming from Class B are 0-48
Chester 3.00 - Horses dropping from 12f or longer are 0-29
Chester 3.00 - You want an experienced handicapper to win this. 9 of the last 12 winners had already won 3 handicaps
Chester 3.00 - Don’t rule out High Drawn Horses. Several have won and gone close recently

Chester 3.35 - 15 renewals and 145 runners (Walker Smith Way Handicap)
Chester 3.35 - Every winner had 2-12 career starts but seasonal debutants were 0-17
Chester 3.35 - Horses that ran 16-31 days ago are best (10-66)
Chester 3.35 - Horses from Newmarket (4-17) do well
Chester 3.35 - Fillies are 0-16
Chester 3.35 - Horses that were 16/1 or more were 1-37
Chester 3.35 - Maidens are fine (6-38)
Chester 3.35 - Northern trained runners are just 1-46
Chester 3.35 - Look for Light raced improvers often from big stables , Laid out for the race that have not shown their best form yet.
Chester 3.35 - This rarely goes to the Form choice. 12 of the 15 winners went "up" in class, 6 of them from Maidens
Chester 3.35 - Avoid double-figure Draws. In only 1 year (2002) was the winning draw Over Stall 7 although another lost in a photo

Chester 4.10 - 4 renewals and 40 runners (2yo Maiden)
Chester 4.10 - Unraced horses are 0-16
Chester 4.10 - Fillies are 2-11 , Colts are 2-29
Chester 4.10 - The 4 winners were 2nd 3rd 4th and 4th on their last runs (others 0-9)