Account Bet


No Bet

Only Looking at Doncaster tonight. The rain has turned the ground soft and Non Runners have complicated things. I have looked at every race on the card. My Best Bet at the
meeting is Legally Fast (6.45) who would be a certainty on fast ground, but who may just get away with winning this on soft. The Other race selections are as follows. I am personally only betting Legally Fast and Magic Sting.

6.45 - Legally Fast (Nap)
7.15 - Magic Sting
7.45 - Maundy Money
8.15 - Castellano
8.45 - Poker Player e/w
9.15 - Downland


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Talking Points


Tuesdays account bet Hilltime was second . No complaints about the ride or the race. He ran a very good race and I just feel he was beaten by a horse that came back to his best that was cherry ripe on the day (Eton). Little surprised how short he went in the market and in the end he wasnt great value at 13/8 but he had a serious chance, ran a serious race and just met 1 too good on the day.

* Ante Post Preview - Saturdays John Smiths Cup

Saturday York - 3:55 46th John Smith's Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+,0-110) (1m2f88y)
Saturday York 3.55 - 15 renewals and 268 runners
Saturday York 3.55 - Less than 5 Career starts are 0-14
Saturday York 3.55 - Horses with 5 or more starts this year are 0-86
Saturday York 3.55 - Positive tracks to come from are Sandown (5-40) , York (2-20), Goodwood (2-11)
Saturday York 3.55 - Negative tracks to come from at Doncaster (0-18) , Epsom (0-16) , Newmarket July track (0-9) and Ascot (2-66)
Saturday York 3.55 - Horses that had ran in Group class before or higher are just 1-47
Saturday York 3.55 - Horses aged 6 and over are 0-52
Saturday York 3.55 - Fillies are 0-27
Saturday York 3.55 - Claiming jockeys underperform (2-61)
Saturday York 3.55 - All 13 horses that carried a penalty lost
Saturday York 3.55 - Horses that lost by over 6 lengths last time out are 0-99
Saturday York 3.55 - You want a 1-2-3-4-5 placing last time out (others 2-106)
Saturday York 3.55 - Horses that had not won in their last 6 starts are 1-70
Saturday York 3.55 - Horses dropping in class are just 1-30
Saturday York 3.55 - Horses coming from a Conditions or Classified race are 0-40
Saturday York 3.55 - Horses dropping from 12f or more are just 1-36
Saturday York 3.55 - 8st 2lbs or less are just 1-67
Saturday York 3.55 - A Low draw is highly desirable


Mullins Bay (4/1), Notable Guest (9/2), Woodcracker (10/1), Crow Wood (12/1), Royal Prince (14/1), Blue Spinnaker (16/1), Momtic (16/1), Red Lancer (16/1), Zero Tolerance (16/1), Courageous Duke (20/1), Im So Lucky (20/1), Thyolo (20/1), Blythe Knight (25/1), Go Tech (25/1), Kharish (25/1), Kings Point (25/1), Spanish Don (25/1), Trew Class (25/1), Another Bottle (33/1), Credit (33/1), Fruhlingssturm (33/1), Hallhoo (33/1), Impeller
(33/1), James Caird (33/1), Krugerrand (33/1) -


MULLINS BAY 4/1 - Statistically solid other than he drops in Class from Listed company (Only 1 from 23 did this) and comes from Ascot
NOTABLE GUEST 4/1 - Carries a penalty. All 13 to have done that failed. Also drops from 12f and only 1 from 36 managed that. Also comes from Ascot
WOODCRACKER 10/1 - Statistically perfect and laid out for the race having missed Ascot.
CROW WOOD 12/1- Overraced this year (0-86) - wrong age (0-52) - Drops in trip (1-36) - Has a very weak untypical profile and comes from Ascot
ROYAL PRINCE 12/1- Statistically perfect aside from coming from the Royal meetings (2-66)
BLUE SPINNAKER 16/1 - Wrong age (0-52) - Comes from Royal meeting (2-66) - Fails multiple "Last time out" stats and a big doubt on his last run
MOMTIC 16/1 -Overraced this year (0-86) .
RED LANCER 16/1 -Overraced this year (0-86) - Already ran in Group class (1-47) and trip droping (1-36) makes him highly unlikely to win
ZERO TOLERANCE 16/1 - Nothing wrong with him statistically
COURAGEOUS DUKE 20/1 -Wrong age (0-52) - Comes from Royal Meeting (2-66) - Class droppers (1-30) and fails multiple last time out stats

Conclusion

You wont find a handicap with better stats than this. At this stage you have to wait for the Draw. Its important to be low. I am on WOODCRACKER at 12/1 . My biggest Demon would be soft ground due to the record of Docksiders offspring on soft ,and the fact his sire and dam were unproven on a soft surface , but Micheal Bell has always said he likes soft ground and Woodcracker does have 1 nice piece of form on soft ground. Whether WOODCRACKER will be the final selection or not is unknown.


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Today's Racing



Staying solely at Doncaster. Spent a lot of time on each race and Hopefully a few winners may emerge.


Doncaster 6.45 -Northern Racing College Apprentice Stakes (Handicap) (Class 5) (3yo+,0-70) 2m½f (2m110y)

2/1 Legally Fast, 7/2 Considine, Kaluana Court, 6/1 Restart, 81 Crownfield, 14/1 Chestall,

Had this been fast ground LEGALLY FAST would be a "maximum". There was rain overnight and it will definately be on the slow side tonight and that may not suit him. He may still win this as he has so much in hand, in fact he is still about the best bet of the night, but these are unlikely to be his optimum conditions. This is a 0-62 Handicap. LEGALLY FAST is rated top on 62 but he is carrying the least weight by far. Thats because he gets weight for age. That makes him very attractively weighted assuming his youth and inexperience dpnt count against him. This is a new race. It hasnt been ran before so we
have no benchmarks. I believe that 3 year olds would dominate if this race been run. We know from all previous 60 races at all tracks in identical races that horses aged 3 win 23% of the races from just 12% of the runners so they do outperform other age groups. RESTART is rated 60 , yet he has to give 17lbs in weight to a horse rated higher on 62. I dont think he can do that. I think if there is a stand out bet it has to be LEGALLY FAST. I do think on breeding you would be worried about any significant rain. This looks a fast ground type. He may not appreciate soft ground so the weather is important. I Dont fancy CHETSALL (Fitness) . I dont think KALUANA COURT is good enough or likely to appreciate the ground. CONSIDINE has been beaten recently in several 0-60 handicaps and he hasnt won since he changed stables back in April. He is another that wants fast ground and a marathon trip. He wont gets his best ground tonight. I Think several of these have it in them to win if they run their best race, but if every horse ran their best then there is no chance that anything can give so much weight to LEGALLY FAST. Paul Cole wouldnt be my favourite trainer, but at least he has had winners recently and it appears sensible to select LEGALLY FAST because He will win if he shows his best form, and if he doesnt then you are left with unclear choices. CROWNFIELD could run very well. I wasnt too impressed with his last run but this change in ground and step up in trip looks what he wants and he would have a reasonable chance as well

In Conclusion , for me there is a clear cut choice in LEGALLY FAST as the weight for age scale is massively in his favour, but what would have been a Maximum on fast ground reduces radically in stake to a small bet. I Dont think conditions will be ideal for him but he could still win. RESTART is my danger and I would see him as good value at 6/1.

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Doncaster 7.15 - Go Racing In Yorkshire Claiming Stakes (Class 5) (3-5yo) 1m4f

8/11 Magic Sting, 3/1 Pont Neuf, 5/1 Desert Hawk, 16/1 Loves Travelling, 20/1 Rocket Force, 33/1 Perfect Balance, 50/1 Blaise Wood, 66/1 Kyo Bid,

MAGIC STING the odds on favouite wins this race on several of his recent runs and deserves to be hot favourite. His problem has been his consistency as he gets punished by the handicapper and couldnt win a handicap off 83 . He also wants soft ground, this is not a horse you would want to risk on fast ground. He gets some help with the ground tonight. One problem he has is that he is a small horse that doesnt want huge weights, although he has won carrying todays weight of 9st 13lbs. He is the best horse at the weights especially on this ground . I dont trust PONT NEUF who seems to have consistency problems and despite the betting suggesting otherwise , she just isnt a horse I would trust as an each way banker. Similar comments about DESERT HAWK. I wouldnt rely on either. I think MAGIC STING will win. I think soft ground means he is entitled to be odds on. He really should win this.


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Doncaster 7.45 - 7/2 Dream Theme, 4/1 Ludovico, 5/1 Final Verse, 6/1 Nawaqees, 8/1 Maundy Money, 10/1 Mad Professor, 14/1 Butterfly Bud, Carr Hall, Shopfitter, 16/1 Summer Lodge, 25/1 Inchmarlow, 33/1 Commander Wish, Desert Hunter, 50/1 Nell Tupp, 66/1 Minthare, Networker,

Little to go on but interesting nevertheless. I Think you have 2 issues to consider. The first is whether to follow the stats , which clearly point to an experienced horse winning over an unraced horses. The second problem is to understand that the level of form that the experienced horses have achieved, is Less than the norm and less than you had seen in previous renewals. That makes me think that the level of the "experienced" horse is weaker than normal.

That means the statistic that implies unraced horse are poor is vulnerable . I say that for 2 reasons. Firstly the past winners of this race, who were experienced all managed to finish 2nd and 3rd last time out, which none of todays experienced horses have done. Secondly if you look in the Racing Post at the "adjusted average winning racing post rating" of past winners its considerably higher than anything shown so far by the experienced horses. That worries me about siding with an experienced horse, but I am still going to do that.

The Unraced horses that dominate the market are DREAM THEME 7/2 , FINAL VERSE 3/1 and MAD PROFESSOR 14/1 . As I said earlier the stats point away from unraced horses and towards experienced ones. This is because historically there have been just 10 renewals of this race and so far unraced horses have a very weak 1-51 record. That is a dismal record when you consider that 14 unraced horses started 7/1 or shorter and 3 were beaten favourites and the only1 that did win was back in 1990 when 4 of the 6 runners that year were unraced. This strongly implies that you should consider a horse thats already had a run. Therefore we should be considering only LUDOVICO 6/1 , NAWAQUUES 6/1or MAUNDY MONEY 14/1 .

Looking at the big unraced runners, I have fallen for too many unraced Stoute horses that got beaten in my time and whilst FINAL VERSE is fancied and well backed I am happy to pass him up on his debut especially now the rain has come. I also want to be against Barry Hill's DREAM THEME as I feel he is a fast ground bred horse being by Distant Music. The markets should offer some help in order to draw a final conclusion but It is with the experienced horses
that I am going for my selection. I am going to bypass LUDOVICO who is from a Sire I dont like. I dont think John Dunlops NAWAQUEES will live up to his breeding so a chance is taken on MAUNDY MONEY at 12/1 . Mark Johnstons 2 year old will have needed his debut run and will improve for it and Kevin Darley comes here for the one ride. At 12/1 with experience a big assett MAUNDY MONEY is the selection.

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Doncaster 8:15 - Book Now For The St Leger Novice Median Auction Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 7f

9/4F Genari, 5/2 Tent, 5/1 Castellano, Sonny Santino, 7/1 Yankee George, 14/1 Snowberry Hill, 50/1 European Dream, Gwilym, Jordan´s Light, Pappas Ruby

No stats in this race, and thats a big shame as its a race that needs stats. They are multiple issues surrounding experience with these 2 year olds, whether they regress or not, whether you want "Upcoming" horse or "downgrading" horses. Unbelievably there have only been 5 Class 5 races like this in the last 15 years which is incredible. Take GENARI for example. Wins a maiden on his second start, has his limitations exposed in Listed company , and now carries a penalty against many unpenalised runners. We need to know whether that sort of horse wins these races , or whether the lightly raced unpenalised improvers do. I dont think I would want SONNY SANTINO with 9st 6lbs . I do feel a bit "naked "without the stats in this race and thats because I know that looking at who beat what and why doesnt always seem relevant. It doenst matter what form these have already shown , as much as whether they can show it today or not, and statistics offer a far better guide than what a horse did last time and the people that dont believe that probably backed the Coventry stakes winner yesterday that flopped when the statistics showed it had a very hard task to repeat his last start. Without stats it has to be a gut feeling. I would rather have a
horse that won a race, I wouldnt want a gelding (Yankee George) , and I think I would prefer a horse that hadnt already tried to mix it in Group races like the Coventry stakes. As I see it CASTELLANO 5/1 hasnt got to improve that much . He is well bred, he looks likely to appreciate this extra furlong and at 4/1 each way he makes some appeal in a race that I personally think has issues above and beyond the form book, but the lack of stats do prevent us understanding that.

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Doncaster - 8:45 Doncaster Racecourse Sponsorship Club Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (3yo+) 1m

7/2 Denounce, 5/1 Pinpoint, Poker Player, 7/1 Dakota Rain, 8/1 Mademoiselle, 10/1 Rowan Warning, Scottish Play, 12/1 Soufah, Swains Bridge, 16/1 Cool Hunter, 20/1 Monte Mayor Boy, 33/1 Danielle Taylor, Le Petit Diable, 66/1 Saluscraggie, Venetian Princess, 100/1 Kimberley Hall,

DENOUNCE has been heavilly backed into 2/1. The story behind him is that he was highly thought of last year but fractured his Pelvis. He then had 13 months off the track but has been working nicely in preperation for this with Political Intrigue who won on tuesday at Pontefract. The 2 preliminary issues in this race have to be whether older horses can give weight for age away to the 3 year olds, (Denounce 5/2 and Cool Hunter 16/1 are older horses ) and
whether unraced horses can win (Dakota Rain 7/1, Mademoiselle 8/1 and Soufah 12/1 are unraced). In terms of older horses I cant see a big problem. Only 14 tried to win, and although none won, Invader was beaten a head in 2000 and only 3 older horses started less than 20/1 . Interestingly though Henry Cecil had a 4/9 favourite beaten in this race as a 4 year old . I think its possible for older horses to win. In terms of unraced horses in this race, they are 1-17. That wouldnt worry me as as only 5 started less than 12/1 . Those that have joined in the gamble on DENOUNCE May also be interested in Henry Cecils 0-6 record in the race.Bearing in mind DENOUNCE is a short price, does have to give weight away , hasnt been out for a long time, has had a serious injury, and comes from a stable with a poor record in the race it may be worth opposing him and there are valid opponents. PINPOINT ran a great Lingfield debut when 2nd in June. The winner, the 3rd and the 4th all won next time out to boost that form. He then started 5/2 favourite at Windsor but had a bad draw and ran an excellent race under the circumstances. I think he sets a reasonably stiff task for DENOUNCE to beat. Whilst I like PINPOINT I just think that POKER PLAYER may just be the one that proves the biggest danger to DENOUNCE and POKER PLAYER is the suggestion each way.

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Doncaster 9.15 - Jimmy Adams Memorial Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+,0-75) 7f

3/1 Hiccups, 4/1 Snow Bunting, 6/1 Yorkshire Blue, 7/1 Royal Challenge, 8/1 Downland, 10/1 Bollin Edward, 14/1 Ask The Clerk, Bridgewater Boys, 33/1 Inchdura, Vibe

Dissapointed that the favourite (Banjo Patterson) pulled out as I had 101 reasons why it couldnt win and its robbed me of some delicious text. I think the track may be cut up by the last race and some may struggle on the ground. I dont like ROYAL CHALLENGE on rain softened ground. I think ASK THE CLERK needs more races before I could trust a horse that downgraded stables over the winter. SNOW BUNTING ran well in this race 2 years ago but I dont think this is his ground either. I think HICCUPS has a sound chance on form but I going away from him. This is because he has a penalty and 10st (topweight). If you look at the record of horses that carried penalties in this race none of them won , and there has been a low weight bias in this race,Horses with 9st 3lbs or more were 0 from 31. I would say that the stats in this race probably smell a little better than they actually are, but they are worth heeding. I am wary of opposing HICCUPS as the horse looks so attractive on the AOR's (Average Official Ratings) as he faces rivals rated an average of 63 today yet his last 3 runs have been against horses with an average of 73. If HICCUPS Wins I wont be at all surprised but I am looking elsewhere as he is carrying an unprecedented weight , and he could well be short enough in the betting anyway. I am siding with a soft ground lightweight in DOWNLAND Who is still well handicapped. DOWNLAND the speculative pick


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